Weekly Market Update 3-10-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA3-10-16.pdfdeflation is when the currency...
Transcript of Weekly Market Update 3-10-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA3-10-16.pdfdeflation is when the currency...
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Weekly Market Update 3-10-16
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Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301
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TheECBannouncedamajorpolicychangethismorning.Towhit,theECBannounced:
1) A0.1%ratecutondeposits(representingtheFOURTHcuttoNIRP)2) A0.05%ratecutonrefinancingrates.3) A0.05%ratecutonmarginallending4) Amonthlyincreaseof€20billiontotheECB’sQEprogram(bringingitsmonthlyQE
totalto€80billion).Thisrepresentstheproverbial“bazooka”forDraghi.However,thefactremainsthatthreepreviousNIRPcutsand€670billioninQEhasfailedtoprovidethedesireduptickinEUinflation.
Iwanttoemphasizetheword“inflation”here.TheECBknows(asallCentralBanksknow)thatZIRPandQEcannotgenerateeconomicgrowth.TheBankofJapan’sheadHaruhikoKurodaevenadmittedasmuchafewmonthsago.TheentireCentralBankclaimofcaringaboutMainStreetisjustaruse.WhattheCentralBanksreallycareaboutistheBondBubblespecifically,inflatingawayfuturedebtpayments.
WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 3-10-16
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DraghifirsthintedatthisinaspeechinlateJanuary…Verylowinflationcomplicatestheadjustmentprocesswithincountries,leadingtohigherunemployment.Itdelaystherebalancingprocessacrosscountries,hinderingthosethatlostcompetitivenesspriortothecrisisfromregainingit.Andiflowinflationisunexpected,itraisesrealdebtburdensmakingitharderfortheeconomytogrowoutofdebt.http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2016/html/sp160125_1.en.html
There,Draghistatedpointblankthat“lowinflation”isarealproblembecauseitmakesitraises“realdebtburdens.”ThesinglemostterrifyingthingforCentralBankers,Draghiincluded,isDEBTdeflation.Debtdeflationiswhenthecurrencyinwhichagivenbondisdenominatedstrengthens,makingfuturepaymentsmoreexpensiveonarelativebasis.Debtdeflation=greaterdebtpayments=debtbecomeshardtopayoff=eventualrestructuringsanddefaults=thebigbanksimplode=Draghiandfriendsarealloutofjobs.ThisiswhyDraghiissoobsessedwithinflation.Henowopenlyadmitsthisastoday’sQ&Ademonstrated:
Draghi:Ifweweretogiveup,wewouldhavedeflation,whichincreasestherealvalueofdebt.
ThisisthesinglemosthonestthinganyCentralBankerhasadmittedsince2008.It’salsowhyCentralBankswillfighttoothandnailtodebasetheircurrencies.AnditiswhyIexpecttoseeNIRPintheUSaswellasnegativeyieldsaslowas-3%oreven-5%for10-yearGovernmentbondsaroundtheglobeinthecomingmonths.However,whetherCentralBankscanactuallygenerateinflationremainstobeseen.JapanhasbeenengaginginZIRPandQEsince1999and2000,respectively,withminimalresults.
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Asyoucansee,Japan’sinflationrateonlyhit2%underEXTRAORDINARYconditions,thefirstbeingfivestraightyearsofQEthatsawtheBankofJapan’sbalancesheetmorethanDOUBLE(rememberthiswasbackbeforeanyotherCentralBankhadlaunchedaQEprogram).
…thesecondinstanceinwhichJapanexperiencedevenmoderateinflationwasfollowingthemassive“shockandawe”QEprogramof2013:asingleprogramequalinamountto25%ofJapan’sGDP.HeretheBankofJapan’sbalancesheetmorethandoubledinjustthreeyears’time.
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Bywayofcomparison,theECB’sbalancesheetexpandedonly63%duringitsmostaggressiveexpansion(2011-2013)whentheECBwascombatingtheEU’sbankingcrisis.
Concerningthislatestexpansion,theECB’sbalancesheetwas€2trillioninJanuary2015,whenitannouncedits€1trillionQE.AQEofthissizemeansabalancesheetexpansionofjust50%.
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Evenwiththeadditional€20billioninmonthlypurchases,theECBannouncedthismorning,thebalancesheetexpansionwillbejust62%.Sufficetosay,IdoubtDraghiwillbeabletogeneratesignificantinflationwiththesepolicies.ItwouldtakeanunbelievableQEprogram€3trillion+todothis.Ireferagaintothechartfromthebeginningofthisupdate.ThreeNIRPcutsandthefirsteverQEprogramof€1trillionfailedtogenerateinflation.IdoubtanotherroundofNIRPand€240billionmoreinQEwillwork.
Let’smoveontothemarkets.Draghi’sannouncementlookstobeatotaldud.TheEurosurgedonthenews(NOTwhathewanted)…
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…whilestocksplunged.Inparticular,theGermanDAXstagedamonsterreversal.
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TheDAXhasfallenbelowitsbullmarkettrendline.IfitcannotreclaimthisNOW,we’regoingdownhard.
Let’sgoshorthere.ActiontoTake:SHORTtheGermanyETF(EWG).ThesamestoryistrueforSpain,whichisstrugglingtogetabovekeyresistance.
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SpainistrackingtheEuroclosely.Lookingatthecorrelation,Spain’sETFisprimedforamassivecollapseinthenearfuture.
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Let’saddtoourEWPshorts.ActiontoTake:AddtoyourSpainETF(EWP)SHORTS.I’llbeusingtheaverageofouroriginalbuyprice($25.89)andtoday’sclose($26.98)inourmodelportfolio.Asfarasthenextlegdownforemergingmarketsandcommoditiesisconcerned,everythinghingesontheUSDollar.TheUSDollarhasbrokenoutofawedgepattern.Ithassincefallentoretesttheuppertrendlineofthispattern.Ifweholdhere,formerresistanceisnowsupportandthenextlegupwillsoonbegin.
Ifthishappens,Iexpectwe’llseeacollapseinEmergingMarketsasawhole(theUSDollarisinvertedinthechartbelowsoiftheDollarstrengthensthebluelinefalls).
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AswellasBrazil(EWZ)
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WewereobviouslyVERYearlyshortingtheseindexeswiththeirrespectiveUltraShortETFs.However,oncetheUSDollarbeginsitsnextlegup,we’lladdtoourpositionsintheUltraShortEmergingMarketsETF(EEV)andUltraShortBrazilETF(BZQ)toaverageinabetterentrypriceandmaximizeourprofitswhenthenextroundofthecrisishits.We’vebeeninthispositionmanytimesbefore.Beingearlyisnotthesameasbeingwrong.Anexperiencedinvestorcanusedisciplinetoaverageintoapositiontoearnanevenbetter.Thatiswhatwe’regoingtodowithourcurrentmarkethedges.OntotheUSMarkets!TheS&P500hasgunnedhighertoretestthedometopwe’vebeentrackingforseveralmonths.Bythelookofthings,thismoveisnowcomplete.Thenextlegdownshouldberightaroundthecorner.
Indeed,theS&P500lookstobeinacleardowntrendfromtheJuly2015top.Thenextlegdownshouldseeasharpdeclinedownto1850orso,ifnotdeeper.
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ThisdowntrendisevenclearerwhenyouusealargerstockmarketindexliketheNewYorkStockExchange(NYSE):
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ElsewhereintheUS,theRussell2000hasslammedintoresistance.We’renowreadytorolloveragaininabigway.Let’saddtoourshortposition.
ActiontoTake:AddtoyourUltraShortRussell2000(TWM)position.I’llbeusingtheaverageofouroriginalbuyprice($52.94)andtoday’sclose($42.90)inourmodelportfolio.ThesameistrueforFinancials:
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ActiontoTake:AddtoyourUltraShortFinancials(SKF)position.I’llbeusingtheaverageofouroriginalbuyprice($60.95)andtoday’sclose($51.69)inourmodelportfolio.Inthesimplestofterms,theUSmarketshaveseenasharpbounce.Thatbouncehasbeendrivenbyshort-covering,notachangeinfundamentals.Ifanything,thingshaveinfactgottenWORSEfromaneconomicperspectivesincetherallybegan.Ianticipatethatthenextlegdownisjustaroundthecorner.We’renowpositionedtoprofitfromit.RegardingourEuropeanMeltdownportfolio,it’salmosttimetoaddtoourSantander(SAN)Short.
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DeutscheBank(DB)hasexperiencedadeadcatbouncetoretestformersupport.However,thechartisclearthatwe’regoingto$15ifnotZERO.
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Inthesimplestofterms,“risk”hashadasharpbouncesinceearlyFebruary.Thisrallyhasbeendrivenbyshort-coveringandhypeandhopeformoreCentralBankingaction.NowthatDraghiandtheECBhavedeliveredonthelatterpoint,themarket,alreadyextremelyoverbought,isprimedforanotherlegdown.We’rewellpositionedforthis.Thisconcludesthisweek’sissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Butmycurrentviewisthatthisrallyin“risk”isoverandthenextlegdownisjustaroundthecorner..Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourlongermonthlyissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Untilthen…
ChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch
BestRegards,
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*Avg.priceof$17.50and$14.97**Avg.priceof$20.78and$.20Pricesasof3/10/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends
OPEN POSITIONS
US DOLLAR CARRY TRADE IMPLOSION PORTFOLIO
RELATIVE US STRENGTH PORTFOLIO
SYSTEMIC RISK/ BLACK SWAN PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
UltraBullishDollarETF UUP 5/23/11 $21.79 $24.9615%
UltraShortEuro EUO 4/10/15 $27.68 $24.04 -13% UltraShortYenETF YCS 5/27/15 $94.48 $77.39 -18%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
NuveenMuni.Fund NIO 1/2/14 $13.12 $14.60 26% Wal-Mart WMT 7/30/14 $74.78 $67.41 -5% Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $82.18 -11% 7-10YrTreasuryETF UST 11/26/14 $55.54 $59.54 9%
20+YrTreasuryETF TLT 7/15/15 $116.89 $128.69 12% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $10.55 -32% Apple AAPL 9/11/15 $114.21 $101.17 -11%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Gold 3/17/10
$1,120$1,271.00
13%
Silver* 3/17/10
$16.23$15.59 -4%
GoldMinersETF** GDX 5/13/15 $20.78 $20.40 17% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 1/27/16 $19.12 $29.00
52%
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*Avgpriceof$25.89and$26.99Pricesasof3/10/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends
TECH BUBBLE 2.0 PORTFOLIO
MARKET HEDGE PORTFOLIO
EU MELTDOWN PORTFOLIO
*Avg.priceof$385.37and$583
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
SpainETF(SHORT)* EWP 1/22/16 $25.89 $26.98 -2%
DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB
2/3/16$16.65
$19.27 -16%Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $3.86 $4.62 -20%GermanyETF(SHORT) EWG 3/10/16 $24.25 NEW SHORT!
*Avgpriceof$60.95and$51.69**Avgpriceof$52.94and$42.90
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Amazon(SHORT)* AMZN 2/25/15 $385.37 $558.93 -15%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
UltraShortNikkeiETF EWV 1/6/15 $67.46 $55.26 -18%UltraShortEmergingMarketETF EEV 1/20/16 $31.27 $22.27 -17%UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/20/16 $59.95 $48.60 -19%UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 1/20/16 $110.71 $43.97 -60%UltraShortFinancials SKF 2/10/16 $56.82 $51.69 -15% UltraShortRussell2000ETF TWM 2/10/16 $47.92 $42.90 -19%
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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Apple AAPL 4/2/14 $77.51 9/29/14 $98.84 28%
EuropeanFinancials(SHORT) EUFN 4/15/14 $24.89 10/10/14 $22.47 11%
UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 4/15/14 $49.46 10/10/14 $52.28 6%
UltraShortBrazil BZQ 10/15/14 $62.00 10/21/14 $71.92 16%
UltraShortGold GLL 10/24/14 $94.15 11/14/14 $104.21 11%
UltraShortSilver ZSL 10/24/14 $104.89 11/14/14 $122.00 17%
EnduroRoyaltyTrust NDRO 5/22/13 12.05 11/28/14 $7.06 -26%
UltraShortEuro EOU 1/20/15 $23.49 3/5/15 $26.51 13%
UltraShortBrazil BZQ 1/6/15 $91.07 3/6/15 $100.74 11%
Target TGT 5/28/14 $55.34 4/1/15 $82.13 52%
Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.26 4/1/15 $34.56 20%
GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14 $24.57 4/13/15 $27.89 18%
BPPrudhoeBayRoyaltyTrust BPT 1/2/14
$76.775/20/15 $66.70 5%
ConocoPhillips COP 3/5/14$66.30
5/20/15 $65.27 4%
RussiaETF TRF4/9/15 $10.62 5/20/15 $11.36
7%
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS
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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
UtraShortOilETF SCO 5/27/15 $61.08 7/6/15 $70.30 15%
UltraShortGoldETF GLL 2/25/15 $95.49 7/7/15 $101.75 7%
Copper(SHORT) JJC 3/10/15 $31.35 7/7/15 $28.78 8%
UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 5/27/15 $85.70 7/7/15 $92.02 7%
IndustrialMetalsETF UBM 3/25/15 $15.24 7/7/15 $13.56 11% UltraShortChinaETF(half) FXP 3/10/15 $36.45 7/8/15 $41.93 15%
UltraShortOilETF(half)SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/23/15 $82.14 8%
UltraShortBrazilETF(half)
BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/23/15 $102.36 12% UltraShortBrazilETF(secondhalf)
BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/24/15 $109.60 20% UltraShortOilETF(secondhalf)
SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/27/15 $87.36 15%
LinkedIn(SHORT)LNKD 6/17/15 $215.45 8/4/15 $194.96 10%
AustraliaETF(SHORT)EWA 1/6/15 $21.97 8/11/15 $19.85 11%
UltraShortEmergingMktsETF
EEV 1/20/15 $19.48 8/11/15 $21.56 11%
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
UltraShortChinaETF FXP 3/10/15 $36.458/19/15 $41.59 14%
ChinaRealEstateETF(SHORT) TAO 6/11/13 $20.11 8/24/15 $17.21 14% SouthKoreaETF(SHORT) EWY 8/18/15 $48.17
8/24/15 $43.82 10%
IndiaETF(SHORT) INP 8/18/15 $70.188/24/15 $59.38 18%
Santander(SHORT) SAN 8/13/15 $6.638/24/15 $5.99 10%
SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 8/13/15 $34.088/24/15 $31.38 8%
AustralianDollarETF(SHORT)
FXA 5/27/15 $77.368/26/15 $70.99 8%
UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/29/15 $120.84
8/26/15 $132.02 9%
UltraLongS&P500 SSO 9/2/15 $56.129/9/15 $59.37 6%
UltraLongRussell200 UWM 9/2/15$79.20 9/9/15 $83.75 6%
CanadaDollarETF(SHORT)
FXC 5/27/15 $79.819/23/15 $74.47 7%
Canon(SHORT) CAJ 7/31/13 $30.849/23/15 $29.12 6%
UltraShortSemiconductorsETF
SSG9/18/15
$54.00 9/24/15 $60.2011%
UltraShortBrazilETFBZQ 9/22/15 $172.16
9/24/15 $199.00 16%
DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB
10/28/15$30.31 11/12/15 $26.17 14%
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24
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Santander(SHORT)SAN
10/28/15$5.70 11/27/15 $5.36 6%
UltraShortGoldETFGLL 7/29/15 $112.00
11/27/15 $117.38 5%
UltraShortOilETF SCO 11/12/15 $95.3512/2/15 $108.18
13%
UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 11/12/15 $66.3212/2/15 $72.46
9%
BancoDeChile(Short)
BCH 8/18/15 $61.8912/8/15 $57.68 7%
RussiaETF(SHORT)RSX 12/2/15 $16.35
12/8/15 $15.32 6% UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF EEV 11/12/15 $22.14
12/8/15 $23.767%
SpainETF(SHORT)EWP
9/30/15$29.66 1/14/16 $27.64 7%
UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF
EEV12/17/15
$23.84 1/14/16 $25.316%
SingaporeETF(SHORT)EWS 9/22/15 $10.31
1/7/16 $9.57 7%
MexicoETF(SHORT) EWW 12/23/15 $51.151/7/16 $46.66 9%
FranceETF(SHORT)EWQ
9/30/15$24.07 1/11/16 $22.64 6%
Nvidia NVDA 6/26/13$14.14
1/13/16 $30.04119%
Auto-Zone AZO 9/25/13$422.73
1/13/16 $716.2169%
Intel INTC 12/20/13$25.14
1/13/16 $32.4036%
Target TGT 5/28/14$55.34
1/13/16 $72.6838%
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25
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Tesla(SHORT) TSLA 2/25/15 $203.761/14/16 $196.41 4%
UltraShortFinancialsSKF
9/18/15$52.39 1/14/16 $55.20
5%
EuropeanFinancials(SHORT)
EUFN1/6/16
$19.36 1/15/16 $18.02 7% UltraShortS&P500 SDS 9/18/15 $22.33
1/15/16$23.58 6%
MalaysiaETF(SHORT)EWM 9/22/15 $7.50
1/15/16 $7.16 5%
Kraft KHC 9/24/14 $56.811/15/16 $68.79
27%
McDonalds MCD 10/30/14 $92.871/15/16 $115.25
29%
Santander(SHORT)SAN
1/6/16$4.52 1/19/16 $4.19 7%
RetailETF(SHORT)XRT
1/13/16 $40.66 1/20/16 $38.01 7%
Coke KO 8/28/13$36.80
1/22/16 $41.8121%
GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14$24.57
1/22/16 $27.9120%
EliLilly LLY 12/3/14 $71.131/22/16 $83.09
20%
UniversalCorporation UVV3/5/15
$48.051/22/16 $52.23
12%
Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.262/1/16 $30.16
8%
Microsoft MSFT 12/3/14 $48.082/1/16 $54.70
16%
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26
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Netflix(SHORT) NFLX 1/27/16 $91.152/8/16 $81.55 11%
ItalyETF(SHORT)(half)
EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/9/16
$10.88 10% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(half) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37
2/9/16$9.09 12%
DeutscheBank(SHORT)(half) DB 2/3/16 $16.65
2/9/16$14.95 10%
ItalyETF(SHORT)(otherhalf)
EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/11/16
$10.71 11% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(otherhalf) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37
2/11/16$8.64 17%