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Transcript of Weekly market report
Page 1 of 5
Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 542.82 points, or 4.04%, during
the week, to close at 13,985.98 points. Market capitalization increased by
3.2% to reach QR742.6 billion (bn) as compared to QR719.4bn at the end of
the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 31 companies ended the
week higher, while 8 fell and 4 remained unchanged. Ooredoo (ORDS)
was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 15.49% on
0.8 million (mn) shares traded; the stock is down 3.8% year-to-date
(YTD). Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Co. (QCFS) was the worst
performing stock, with a decline of 4.00% on only 3,143 shares traded.
The stock is still up 19.7% YTD.
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK), Ooredoo (ORDS) and QNB Group
(QNBK) were the biggest contributors to the weekly index gain.
MARK contributed 129.1 points to the index’s weekly gain of 542.8
points. The stock has been one of the best performing stocks in 2014
YTD with a price return of 79.9%. ORDS also contributed positively to
the index, adding 110.0 points; the stock has also been one of the
worst performing stocks in 2014 YTD with a drop of 3.8%. QNB Group
was the third biggest contributor, contributing 72.6 points.
On the other hand within the QE Index, Industries Qatar (IQCD)
and Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) ended in negative territory. IQCD
ended the week shaving off 14.1 points off the index; the stock is up
13.8% YTD. Furthermore, QIBK also contributed negatively to the
index by reducing 7.8 points; the stock is up 71.0% YTD.
Trading value during the week decreased by 29.0% to reach
QR3.5bn vs. QR4.9bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
49.8% of the total equity trading value. QNB Group (QNBK) and Masraf
Al Rayan (MARK) were the top value traded stocks during the week
with total traded value of QR457.4mn and QR363.6mn, respectively.
Trading volume decreased by 14.9% to reach 68.6mn shares vs.
80.6mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions fell by
20.9% to reach 32,119 transactions versus 40,604 transactions in the
prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector also led the trading
volume, accounting for 35.4%. Ezdan Holding (ERES) was the top
volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of
11.9mn shares.
Foreign institutions remained bullish during the week with net
buying of QR34.9mn vs. QR477.5mn in the prior week. Qatari
institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR27.6mn vs. net
selling of QR303.4mn the week before. Foreign retail investors
remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR14.8mn vs. net
selling of QR39.9mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned
bullish with net buying of QR6.9mn vs. net selling of QR134.2mn the
week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net
foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$2.4bn.
Market Indicators Week ended
Sep. 04, 2014 Week ended
Aug. 28, 2014 Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 3,452.8 4,862.7 (29.0)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 742,618.0 719,428.8 3.2
Volume (mn) 68.6 80.6 (14.9)
Number of Transactions 32,119 40,604 (20.9)
Companies Traded 43 43 0.0
Market Breadth 31:8 13:30 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 20,859.96 4.0 2.9 40.7
All Share Index 3,534.49 3.4 2.8 36.6
Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,470.63 4.3 4.6 42.0
Industrials 4,615.42 1.1 1.2 31.9
Transportation 2,313.25 4.5 0.7 24.5
Real Estate 2,881.78 1.9 (0.1) 47.6
Insurance 4,139.00 1.1 0.8 77.2
Telecoms 1,660.08 14.1 5.7 14.2
Consumer 7,445.58 0.4 0.1 25.2
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,718.21 2.0 0.6 55.4
Market Indices Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QE)* 13,985.98 4.0 2.9 34.7 922.86 203,922.9 17.5 2.3 3.6
Dubai 5,120.75 3.9 1.1 52.0 2,225.85 98,534.9 21.3 1.9 1.9
Abu Dhabi 5,141.18 1.4 1.2 19.8 489.01 140,911.2 14.5 1.8 3.2
Saudi Arabia# 11,061.14
11,061.14
0.2 (0.5) 29.6 14,085.50 599,646.2 21.3 2.7 2.6
Kuwait 7,453.75 0.7 0.3 (1.3) 398.35 113,508.5 18.4 1.2 3.7
Oman 7,479.33 1.6 1.5 9.4 93.81 27,474.7 11.3 1.7 3.7
Bahrain 1,471.88 (0.3) (0.0) 17.9 4.81 54,350.7 11.3 1.0 4.6
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (#Data as of September 03, 2014)
13,596.66 13,699.51
13,742.22
13,838.40
13,985.98
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
13,400
13,750
14,100
31-Aug 1-Sep 2-Sep 3-Sep 4-Sep
Volume QE Index
4.0% 3.9%
1.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2%
(0.3%)(4.0%)
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
Qata
r (Q
E)*
Dubai
Om
an
Abu D
habi
Kuw
ait
Saud
i Ara
bia
Bah
rain
Page 2 of 5
News
Economic News
QNB Group: Qatar’s real estate prices still remain within fundamentals – Qatar’s real estate prices continue to reach
record highs. According to the Real Estate Price Index (REPI) published by the Qatar Central Bank (QCB), average prices for land, commercial and residential properties in June 2014 stood 20% above their peak in September 2008. This could suggest a potential overheating of the real estate sector. Closer analysis, however, indicates that the increase is still within the fundamentals of Qatar’s fast growing economy and rapid population growth. The QCB publishes the REPI on a monthly basis on its website. The index was developed to measure the average increase in real estate prices in Qatar. It is based on Ministry of Justice data on land and property transactions published on a weekly basis. According to the latest data, the REPI increased 21.5% in the first six months of 2014, showing a significant acceleration compared with the 6.2% increase in the second half of 2013. Are these large increases in real estate prices in line with economic fundamentals or a sign of another real estate bubble? To answer this question, we compared the real estate price index to two measures of fundamentals in the economy. One measure is based on push factors affecting real estate prices. The other measure is based on price movements in the economy. Both measures suggest that real estate prices continue to be in line with economic fundamentals. Overall, both measures suggest that Qatar’s real estate prices continue to be in line with economic fundamentals. Qatar’s fast growing economy and rapid population growth seem to justify a rapid increase in real estate prices, which remains in line with other nominal developments in the economy. Further rapid increases in real estate prices could, however, signal overheating and a potential for another real estate bubble. (QNB Group)
QCB auctions T-bills worth QR4bn – The Qatar Central Bank
(QCB) has auctioned treasury bills worth QR4bh on September 2, 2014, for which it received bids totaling QR11.24bn. T-bills worth QR2bn with a three-month maturity period were auctioned at a yield of 0.71%. T-bills worth QR1bn with a six-month maturity period were sold at a yield of 0.89%, while T-bills worth QR1bn with a nine-month maturity period were auctioned at a yield of 0.99%. (QCB)
Market & Corporate News
MERS to open eight new malls – Al Meera Consumer Goods
Company (MERS) is planning to open eight new malls by the end of 2014. The retailer also plans to roll out nine new branches in and outside Doha during 4Q2014. The new branches will be opened in Jeryan Nejaima, Al Wakra, Al Thumama, Al Wajba, Muaither, Al Azizia, Zakhira, Al Muraikh and at Gulf Mall. MERS said that the company is working to its full potential to finalize the construction phase of new malls to achieve a wider spread that satisfies its customers. MERS will open its branches as soon as it obtains permits and approvals from the authorities. According to the company, the construction of the Jeryan Nejaima branch is expected to be completed soon. Facing the Lekhwiya Stadium, the branch will meet the needs of consumers in the area by offering all products they may need. The branch spreads over an area of 5,526 square meters, of which 1,207 square meters goes to the supermarket. The Jeryan Nejaima branch will include 19 stores offering a variety of services to visitors as well as four restaurants. (Peninsula Qatar)
ABS to start work on Qatar’s first liftboat – Nakilat-Keppel
Offshore & Marine (N-KOM) has selected ABS, a US-based
provider of classification services to the global offshore industry, to build the first self-elevating unit ever to be built in Qatar. The project will also be the first offshore new build project undertaken by the shipyard. Customized for the Middle East & North Africa region, the LB310S will be a four-legged liftboat capable of field transit and elevated operations in water depths up to 65 meters. (Bloomberg)
Q-Chem, Gasal sign long-term pipeline network agreement – Qatar Chemical Company (Q-Chem) and Gasal have signed
a long-term pipeline network pact – a strategic deal by which Gasal will supply the necessary nitrogen for the Ras Laffan Olefins Company’s (RLOC) ethylene cracker in Ras Laffan Industrial City. Gasal, a JV involving Qatar Intermediate Industries Company (Alwaseeta), Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Company (QIMD), and the French industrial gas company Air Liquide, has been supplying nitrogen to RLOC since 2009 using a dedicated unit situated at the RLOC premises. According to the new signed agreement, Gasal will connect RLOC through its pipeline network. (Gulf-Times.com)
KCBK appoints new Group CEO – Al Khalij Commercial Bank
(KCBK) has appointed Fahad Abdulla Al Khalifa as its new Group Chief Executive Officer. Al-Khalifa is a senior banker with more than 20 years of experience; he has held prominent positions in Qatari banks, including the Qatar Central Bank and QNB Group, which translates into knowledge and perspective with regards to local and regional markets (Gulf-Times.com)
Surge in demand for labor camps as worker inflow increases – According to an estimate by Al Asmakh Real
Estate Development Company (AREDC), as many as 1mn new beds would be required to accommodate new workers entering the country and existing labor accommodations need to be upgraded in view of the strict guidelines issued by the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC). As per the NHRC’s new guidelines issued in 2013, double-decker beds in makeshift labor camps on construction sites are banned. Not more than four workers are to be housed in a room in provisional labor lodging at a construction site and the area allocated to each worker in the shared room must at least be 4 square meters of free space. AREDC said in a report that there has been a surge in demand for additional labor camps within Qatar owing to strict implementation of global norms in housing workers on project sites. The report said that around 500,000 more blue-collar workers would be required for ongoing and proposed infrastructure construction. AREDC observed that the upcoming FIFA 2022 World Cup has kicked off a multibillion-dollar construction boom in Qatar, due to which the inflow of new workers has substantially increased. (Gulf-Times.com)
Ooredoo’s Myanmar start-up focuses on pay-as-you-go –
Ooredoo Myanmar’s CEO Ross Cormack said that the company will focus on adding more pay-as-you-go subscribers in Myanmar, but may provide monthly mobile contracts and fixed services in the long-term. Cormack said that the firm has not decided whether to expand into post-paid contracts. Last year, Ooredoo (ORDS) and Norway's Telenor Group won telecom licenses in the Southeast Asian country, whose mobile penetration is among the lowest globally (about 10%). Since its launch in August 2, ORDS has already sold more than 1mn pre-paid SIM cards. (Reuters)
Page 3 of 5
Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
15.5%
10.3%9.9%
8.3%7.5%
0.0%
6.0%
12.0%
18.0%
Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar
Qatar Electricity and
Water
Masraf Al Rayan
Commercial Bank of Qatar
-4.0%
-1.9%-1.7%
-1.3%
-0.8%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution
Qatar National Cement
Qatari Investors Group
Al Meera Consumer
Goods
Qatar Islamic Bank
457.4
363.6
287.2
224.1
165.2
0.0
170.0
340.0
510.0
QNB Group Masraf Al Rayan
Industries Qatar
Ezdan Real Estate
Qatar International Islamic Bank
11.9
6.86.5
5.34.7
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
Ezdan Real Estate
Vodafone Qatar Masraf Al Rayan Mazaya Qatar Al Khaliji
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
38.75% 38.55%
23.58% 24.38%
12.85% 13.28%
24.82% 23.81%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
2,152
1,301
2,173
1,281
(21)
20
(500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
Page 4 of 5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE Index showcased a stellar performance and ended the week at a record closing high near the 14,000.0 psychological level. The index bounced
back on Sunday and witnessed a strong rally by advancing in every trading session, displaying good strength. Moreover, the index breached many
important resistance levels and remained in an upbeat mode throughout the week with not even an iota of profit-booking. With the bulls taking complete
control, the index may continue its positive momentum to tag new highs, as it has no resistance at the current level. On the flip side, 13,900.0 may act as a
psychological support, below which 13,850.0 may provide a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner, while the MACD is
about to cross the signal line into the positive territory. This indicates that the index has enough steam left to accelerate further.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name
Price
(September 04)
% Change
5-Day
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 209.80 3.86 21.98 146,803 14.9 2.8 3.3
Qatar Islamic Bank 118.00 (0.84) 71.01 27,883 19.7 2.4 3.4
Commercial Bank of Qatar 73.20 7.49 24.07 21,736 13.5 1.3 2.3
Doha Bank 62.30 2.13 7.04 16,097 11.3 1.5 7.2
Al Ahli Bank 53.70 1.32 26.93 8,871 15.9 2.3 N/A
Qatar International Islamic Bank 90.70 3.78 47.00 13,729 17.4 2.7 4.1
Masraf Al Rayan 56.30 8.27 79.87 42,225 23.6 4.1 2.7
Al Khaliji Bank 22.50 3.69 12.56 8,100 15.6 1.4 4.4
National Leasing 28.50 0.88 (5.47) 1,410 33.9 1.1 5.3
Dlala Holding 64.80 2.86 193.21 1,439 18.3 5.3 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 17.10 (0.06) 36.58 539 21.9 1.6 3.5
Islamic Holding Group 99.90 2.99 117.17 400 32.9 6.7 1.7
Banking and Financial Services 289,230
Zad Holding 90.00 0.00 29.50 1,177 10.8 1.5 3.9
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 13.80 0.66 (0.36) 159 N/M 0.9 N/A
Salam International Investment 20.27 2.84 55.80 2,317 16.2 1.4 4.9
Medicare Group 131.00 1.55 149.52 3,687 29.4 4.5 1.4
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 48.00 (4.00) 19.70 274 23.4 2.0 N/A
Qatar Fuel 220.20 0.09 0.76 18,598 15.6 3.0 3.5
Qatar Meat and Livestock 61.10 0.49 18.18 1,100 19.6 4.5 3.4
Al Meera Consumer Goods 184.80 (1.28) 38.63 3,696 14.3 2.8 4.3
Consumer Goods and Services 31,009
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 47.00 0.21 11.46 2,233 11.1 1.5 N/A
Qatar National Cement 140.30 (1.89) 17.90 6,889 15.7 2.7 4.3
Industries Qatar 192.00 (0.78) 13.68 116,160 18.5 3.9 5.7
Qatari Investors Group 58.00 (1.69) 32.72 7,211 31.5 3.3 1.3
Qatar Electricity and Water 187.90 9.88 13.63 20,669 14.1 3.5 3.6
Mannai Corp. 114.70 2.41 27.59 5,233 9.3 2.7 4.8
Aamal 16.29 0.00 8.60 9,774 18.3 1.4 N/A
Gulf International Services 121.90 4.01 149.80 22,654 26.7 6.9 1.3
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 33.50 0.15 N/A 42,087 N/A 3.1 1.0
Industrials 232,909
Qatar Insurance 100.00 0.00 87.97 16,054 16.4 3.0 2.0
Doha Insurance 32.50 7.44 30.00 1,625 11.3 1.6 6.2
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 47.00 2.17 17.75 3,251 2.3 0.7 2.6
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 47.85 1.81 70.42 1,062 12.4 1.6 N/A
Qatar Islamic Insurance 89.10 3.60 53.89 1,337 16.0 4.7 4.2
Insurance 23,329
United Development 29.00 (0.51) 34.67 10,269 20.7 1.0 3.3
Barw a Real Estate 40.50 3.58 35.91 15,760 12.1 1.2 4.9
Ezdan Real Estate 19.00 1.60 11.76 50,397 39.0 1.7 1.6
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 24.77 1.10 121.56 2,477 13.9 2.1 3.0
Real Estate 78,902
Qatar Telecom 132.00 15.49 (3.79) 42,282 16.9 1.7 3.0
Vodafone Qatar 21.34 10.34 99.25 18,041 N/M 3.1 0.8
Telecoms 60,323
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 94.00 5.62 13.25 10,765 11.9 0.9 5.3
Gulf Warehousing 50.50 0.00 21.69 2,402 20.5 3.0 3.0
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 24.55 4.47 21.23 13,748 16.7 3.7 4.5
Transportation 26,915
Qatar Exchange 742,618