Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD)...

18
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. 1 Market Strategists Kenneth Koh, Market & Equity Analyst Soh Lin Sin, Macro | Equities Economist Osama Bakhteyar, Macro | Equities Economist SG & US Equity Analysts Wong Yong Kai, US Equities Caroline Tay, Real Estate Benjamin Ong, Finance | Offshore Marine Richard Leow, Transport & Logistics Dehong Tan, REITs Shane Goh, Consumer By Phillip Securities Research Mr. Chan Wai Chee, CEO Jaelyn Chin, Operations Exec 4 th May 15, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar

Transcript of Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD)...

Page 1: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

1

Market Strategists Kenneth Koh, Market & Equity Analyst

Soh Lin Sin, Macro | Equities Economist

Osama Bakhteyar, Macro | Equities Economist

SG & US Equity Analysts Wong Yong Kai, US Equities

Caroline Tay, Real Estate

Benjamin Ong, Finance | Offshore Marine

Richard Leow, Transport & Logistics

Dehong Tan, REITs

Shane Goh, Consumer

By Phillip Securities Research Mr. Chan Wai Chee, CEO

Jaelyn Chin, Operations Exec

4th May 15, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar

Page 2: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Disclaimer

2

This presentation is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe

for, purchase or sell the investment products mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial

situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss

arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including the

possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Access to

services and your account may be affected by market conditions, system performance and other reasons.

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and

any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such

information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is

made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research

contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made

available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect,

incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been

advised of the possibility of such damages.

You may wish to seek advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase

any of the investment products mentioned. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from a qualified financial adviser, you should

consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer advice in this regard unless

mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement.

You are advised to read the Conditions governing Phillip Securities Trading Accounts and the Risk Disclosure Statement carefully before

investing in this product.

Page 3: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

3

Portfolio of 16 hospitals and nursing homes, primarily in Indonesia

• Ramping up presence in Indonesia at most opportune time

Healthcare insurance to cover all Indonesians by 2019 – expected to boost

healthcare demand

Page 4: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

4

• Leverage off sponsor’s synergistic business and experienced hospital operator

Siloam, the biggest private hospital operator in Indonesia to spearhead Lippo

Karawaci (LPKR)’s expansion plans in healthcare sector

• Master Leases provide stability; Forex Risks also mitigated

All of First REIT’s properties are on Master Leases. Indonesian hospitals rentals

in SGD

Page 5: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

5

Leverage off parent’s aggressive expansion in Indonesia healthcare sector

Page 6: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

6

Leverage off parent’s aggressive expansion in Indonesia healthcare sector

2010: 4 hospitals

Current: 20 (11 already sold to First REIT)

TARGETED 2017: 40-50

Page 7: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

7

Part I: Huge Capacity in Indonesia to absorb increased supply of beds

• Increased Demand: New healthcare insurance under Jokowi government

First phase (January 2014) covers 120m citizens.

Expected to cover all citizens (240m) by 2019

Healthcare demand expected to surge

• All First REIT hospitals registered onto plan

Page 8: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

8

Part I: Huge Capacity in Indonesia to absorb increased supply of beds

• Low Bed/population Ratio in Indonesia

Page 9: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

9

Part I: Huge Capacity in Indonesia to absorb increased supply of beds

• Low Bed/population Ratio in Indonesia

Page 10: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

10

Part II: Siloam’s operating model

• Problem of Attracting doctors

• Collaboration with Universitas Pelita

Harapan’s Faculty of Medicine to

provide pipeline of doctors

Other attractive factors:

• Doctors earn bigger fees (Raffles

model)

• State-of-the-Art Medical Equipment

• Modern facilities

• Brand prominence and scale

(Aggressive first mover advantage)

• Won numerous awards

Frost & Sullivan “Indonesian Healthcare Services Provider of the

Year” - 2012, 2013, 2014

Page 11: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

11

Part III: Master Lessee’s Financial Health

• 88% of Rental Income from Sponsor, LPKR

• Largest property developer listed in Jakarta by revenue and total assets

• Gearing (Debt/Equity) at 0.4-0.6 for past 5years

• Liquidity ratios improved over last 4years

• Healthcare already one of LPKR’s main business (30-40% of revenue)

• Healthcare helps LPKR derive cashflow independent of property cycle

Page 12: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

12

COMPANY ANALYSIS

• Master Leases Provide Stability

Page 13: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

13

COMPANY ANALYSIS

• General Lease terms

Property Location Master Lessee General Lease Rental Terms

The Lentor Residence Sphere Investment Pte. Ltd.

Pacific Healthcare Nursing Hom @ Bukit Merah Pacific Healthcare Nursing Home Pte. Ltd.

Pacific Healthcare Nursing Home II @ Bukit Panjang Pacific Eldercare adnd Nursing Pte. Ltd.

Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2%

Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Kebon Jeruk LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Surabaya LPKR

Imperial Aryaduta Hotel and Country Club LPKR

Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Lippo Cikarang LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Manado & Hotel Aruaduta Manado LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Makassar LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Bali LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Tb Simatupang LPKR

Siloam Hospitals Purwakarta PT. Metropolis Propertindo Utama (PT MPU)

Siloam Sriwijaya PT. Metropolis Propertindo Utama (PT MPU)

Singapore

Indonesia

Fixed Base Rental (SGD) and Annual increment of

2%

Annual rental increment (SGD): Base (2x percentage

increase of Singapore CPI, subject to floor of 0% and

cap of 2%) plus variable components

Page 14: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

14

COMPANY ANALYSIS

• Forex and Interest Rate Risks mitigated

Indonesian rentals in SGD

Indonesian properties appraised in SGD terms (since income is in SGD)

95% of debt on fixed interest rate basis

No refinancing need until 2017

Page 15: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Initiation: First REIT (TP $1.55, Last Close $1.45)

Ramping up presence at most opportune time

15

COMPANY ANALYSIS

• Key Risks

LPKR’s healthcare expansion plans fail to gain traction (poor quality of medical

service/failure to attract quality doctors

Chokes off pipeline of acquisition targets for First REIT

LPKR’s financial health runs into problems: 88% of rental income from LPKR

CONCLUSION

• Initiate with “ACCUMULATE”, with TP $1.55 (Last close $1.44, upside 14% incl

div)

We like First REIT’s affiliation with LPKR and Siloam. Well-established property

developer/largest private hospital operator to drive expansion plans

Page 16: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

The week ahead

Page 17: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Disclaimer

17

This presentation is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe

for, purchase or sell the investment products mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial

situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss

arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including the

possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Access to

services and your account may be affected by market conditions, system performance and other reasons.

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and

any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such

information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is

made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research

contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made

available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect,

incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been

advised of the possibility of such damages.

You may wish to seek advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase

any of the investment products mentioned. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from a qualified financial adviser, you should

consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer advice in this regard unless

mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement.

You are advised to read the Conditions governing Phillip Securities Trading Accounts and the Risk Disclosure Statement carefully before

investing in this product.

Page 18: Weekly Market Outlook - UniPhillip · Sarang Hospital Korea Dr Park Ki Ju Fixed Base Rental (USD) and Annual increment of 2% Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village LPKR Siloam Hospitals Kebon

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2015. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

18

Market Strategists Kenneth Koh, Market & Equity Analyst

Soh Lin Sin, Macro | Equities Economist

Osama Bakhteyar, Macro | Equities Economist

SG & US Equity Analysts Wong Yong Kai, US Equities

Caroline Tay, Real Estate

Benjamin Ong, Finance | Offshore Marine

Richard Leow, Transport & Logistics

Dehong Tan, REITs

Shane Goh, Consumer

By Phillip Securities Research Mr. Chan Wai Chee, CEO

Jaelyn Chin, Operations Exec

Ask Questions!