Weekly Investment Report - November 23, 2012

4
The best performing ordinary shares and weekend closing prices were as follows: AMG Packaging14.61% $4.00, Access Financial8.11% $6.00, Blue Power Group7.64% $5.92. The main losers and weekend last sale prices were: Lasco Financial18.53% $4.53, LIME11.11% $0.16, Carib Cement5.56% $0.85. Indices Closed At Change Main JSE 91,210.68 -0.30% All Jamaican Composite 89,557.04 -0.51% Jamaican Select 2,434.74 -0.60% Cross Listed Index 875.49 0.00% Junior 646.13 -0.63% USD Index 53.64 0.13% All the local stock market indices declined, while the USD index inched up at the end of trading activity over the past week. The volume and value of ordinary stocks traded for the week was 16 million units and $85 million, respectively. Of the thirty-seven (37) stocks traded, ten (10) advanced, seventeen (17) declined and ten (10) held firm. Volume 5, Issue Weekly Market Report November 23, 2012 Jamaica Stock Market Summary Barita Investments Limited reported its financial results for its 3rd quarter ended June 2012 showing a 9 month EPS of $0.43, up 5% from the previous year. This results in a P/E of 5.39X and a P/BV of 0.69X based on today’s closing price of $2.75. This is compared to the financial industry’s average P/E of 10.12X and P/BV of 0.89X. Barita reported a 5% increase in profits for the three quarters amounting to $192 million . This improvement was attributed primarily to a 15%, 141%, 75% and 33% increase in net interest income, fx & translation gains, fee & commission income and gains on sale of investments , respectivelyread more SECURITY SHARE_DIV (Cents) RECORD DATE X DATE PAYMENT PAL 175 31-Dec-11 27-Dec-11 30-Jan-13 SALF 40 4-Dec-12 30-Nov-12 8-Jan-13 D&G 20 3-Dec-12 29-Nov-12 27-Dec-12 KW 10 7-Dec-12 5-Dec-12 21-Dec-12 PJAM 55 26-Nov-12 22-Nov-12 20-Dec-12 GK 70 30-Nov-12 28-Nov-12 18-Dec-12 SVL 4 29-Nov-12 27-Nov-12 14-Dec-12 NCBJ 64 30-Nov-12 28-Nov-12 13-Dec-12 CAR 130 21-Nov-12 19-Nov-12 11-Dec-12 JBG 8 13-Nov-12 9-Nov-12 8-Dec-12 LAS 4266 27-Nov-12 23-Nov-12 30-Nov-12 Upcoming Dividend Payments

description

Barita'a Weekly Investment Report as at November 23, 2012

Transcript of Weekly Investment Report - November 23, 2012

Page 1: Weekly Investment Report - November 23, 2012

The best performing ordinary shares and weekend closing prices were as follows: AMG Packaging▲ 14.61% $4.00, Access Financial▲ 8.11% $6.00, Blue Power Group▲ 7.64% $5.92.

The main losers and weekend last sale prices were: Lasco Financial▼ 18.53% $4.53, LIME▼ 11.11% $0.16, Carib Cement▼ 5.56% $0.85.

Indices Closed At Change

Main JSE 91,210.68 -0.30%

All Jamaican Composite

89,557.04 -0.51%

Jamaican Select

2,434.74 -0.60%

Cross Listed Index

875.49 0.00%

Junior 646.13 -0.63%

USD Index 53.64 0.13%

All the local stock market indices declined, while the USD index inched up at the end of trading activity over the past week.

The volume and value of ordinary stocks traded for the week was 16 million units and $85 million, respectively. Of the thirty-seven (37) stocks traded, ten (10) advanced, seventeen (17) declined and ten (10) held firm.

Volume 5, Issue

Weekly Market Report

November 23, 2012

Jamaica Stock Market Summary

Barita Investments Limited reported its financial results for its 3rd quarter ended June 2012 showing a 9 month EPS of $0.43, up 5% from the previous year. This results in a P/E of 5.39X and a P/BV of 0.69X based on today’s closing price of $2.75. This is compared to the financial industry’s average P/E of 10.12X and P/BV of 0.89X.

Barita reported a 5% increase in profits for the three quarters amounting to $192 million. This improvement was attributed primarily to a 15%, 141%, 75% and 33% increase in net interest income, fx & translation gains, fee & commission income and gains on sale of investments , respectively…read more

SECURITY SHARE_DIV (Cents) RECORD DATE X DATE PAYMENT

PAL 175 31-Dec-11 27-Dec-11 30-Jan-13

SALF 40 4-Dec-12 30-Nov-12 8-Jan-13

D&G 20 3-Dec-12 29-Nov-12 27-Dec-12

KW 10 7-Dec-12 5-Dec-12 21-Dec-12

PJAM 55 26-Nov-12 22-Nov-12 20-Dec-12

GK 70 30-Nov-12 28-Nov-12 18-Dec-12

SVL 4 29-Nov-12 27-Nov-12 14-Dec-12

NCBJ 64 30-Nov-12 28-Nov-12 13-Dec-12

CAR 130 21-Nov-12 19-Nov-12 11-Dec-12

JBG 8 13-Nov-12 9-Nov-12 8-Dec-12

LAS 4266 27-Nov-12 23-Nov-12 30-Nov-12

Upcoming Dividend Payments

Page 2: Weekly Investment Report - November 23, 2012

GOJ Global Bonds

Year of Maturity

Currency Offer Price* (23/11/2012)

Offer Price* (16/11/2012)

Offer Yield (23/11/2012)

Offer Yield (16/11/2012)

Yield Change

2014 USD 107.50 107.50 6.22% 6.25% -0.03%

2015 USD 105.00 105.00 6.80% 6.81% -0.01%

2017 USD 111.00 111.00 7.72% 7.72% 0.00%

2019 USD 99.00 99.00 8.23% 8.22% 0.01%

2022 USD 138.00 138.00 6.13% 6.13% 0.00%

2025 USD 105.00 105.00 8.60% 8.60% 0.00%

2036 USD 99.00 99.00 8.60% 8.60% 0.00%

2039 USD 89.00 91.00 9.11% 8.90% 0.21%

2015 –AIR J USD 104.00 104.00 6.21% 6.25% -0.04%

2027 –AIR J USD 92.25 92.25 9.41% 9.41% 0.00%

2021 –CAP JAM USD 99.00 99.00 8.78% 8.78% 0.00%

2024—NROCC USD 103.50 103.50 8.89% 8.89% 0.00%

*NB: The rates quoted above are opening indicative levels and are subject to change due to increased volatility in the international markets.

This week the GOJ released the most recent treasury bill auction results, showing an increase in 30-day, 90-day and 180-day rates to 6.26%, 6.90% and 6.81%, respectively. The rates are coming from October’s average rates of 6.25%, 6.38 and 6.69%. See below instruments to be issued in the month of November:

Money Market Review

Assets valued at J$4.85 billion matured during the week from the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) Open M a r k e t O p e r a t i o n s compared to J$12.6 billion during the previous week. During the week J$ money market 30 day rates traded between 6.75% and 6.95%, while overnight rates traded between 3.00% and 3.50% For the US currency, 30 day rates traded between 3.80% and 4.00%, while overnight rates traded around 2.00%.

BARITA WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Page 2

Give the gift of a

Barita Tuition Builder Account this Christmas, and give a child a head

start towards a brighter future.

Tender Date

Instrument Type

Nov 26-27 Reopen VR BMI Due 2013A and FR 12% BMI Due 2014

Page 3: Weekly Investment Report - November 23, 2012

BARITA WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Page 3

Local News Update The Bank of Jamaica has reported that remittance inflows dipped by 10% for the first nine months of 2012, to $1.519 billion…read more

Lascelles deMercado says it has now completed the sale of its insurance arm, Globe Holdings to Guardian Holdings…read more

The Lascelles deMercado board formally recommended selling its core businesses to Italian spirits giant Campari Group, arguing that shareholders would receive a price 24% above the highest independent valuation of the assets…read more

Finance Minister Dr Peter Phillips has sought to dispel notions that the ongoing negotiations with the IMF will be delayed, saying that at least the letter of intent would have been concluded by yearend…read more

Jamaica Broilers harvested its first crop of corn grown for local animal feed…read more

The malaise gripping the Jamaican economy has started to contaminate Jamaican businesses and markets, but Don Wehby, CEO of GraceKennedy Limited, says businesses cannot allow themselves to be paralyzed by the lack of an IMF agreement…read more

Jamaica went deeper into recession in the third quarter, during which the economy contracted by 0.6 per cent year over year, said the PIOJ…read more

Property conglomerate Pan-Jamaican Investment Trust has pushed back the timeline for construction of its Kingston based Marriott/Courtyard hotel to 2013, citing contractual and financing delays…read more

Minister Peter Phillips has challenged his Caribbean colleagues to collectively lobby international financial partners to fashion economic programmes, unique to the region’s development challenges…read more

The Government plans to shift towards greater reliance on consumption-based taxes as moving away from taxes on income is less harmful to economic growth…read more

Intellectual property company Caribbean 2 World (C2W) has secured a three-year partnership with German-based publisher BMG Chrysalis…read more

This week saw new financial results for Caribbean Producers (Jamaica) Ltd and Salad Foods.

FX Rates As At November 23, 2012

Weighted Average Selling Price

US 91.6985

CAD 92.4502

GBP 146.5480

USD Volume for November 19—23, 2012

Total Purchased

Total Sold

122,126,606 127,727,409

The foreign exchange market opened the week's trading at a weighted average of JA$91.10: US$1.00. The dollar fluctuated on average between a band of $91.46 and $91.70 in trading this week. The dollar traded as high as $95.34 during the period on small volumes and depreciated by 0.26% to end the week at an average rate of $91.70.

The BOJ made no interventions in the market this week.

Trading in the Jamaican dollar for the period resulted in a loss of approximately 1.18% against the Canadian dollar and a loss of 0.57% against the Pound Sterling to close the period at JA$92.45 and JA$146.55 respectively.

Foreign Exchange Market Review

Page 4: Weekly Investment Report - November 23, 2012

Stocks reversed course following two weeks of losses and scored strong gains on hopes that policymakers in both Europe and the U.S. might be making progress on overcoming the regions' economic hurdles. Positive economic data in China also boosted sentiment.

At the beginning of the week investors appeared to be encouraged by signals over the weekend that the Obama administration and Republican leaders in the House of Representatives would be open to a deal to avoid the year-end "fiscal cliff" of scheduled federal spending cuts and tax increases.

Although closed on Thursday for the holiday, U.S. markets followed European shares sharply higher when they reopened on Friday on news that Greece and the IMF might be nearing agreement on the

Disclaimer: Barita makes no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Opinions and recommendations (if any) are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. Barita Investments Ltd. and/or companies connected with it, its clients and officers may have a position in or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned. The interest of Barita Investments Ltd., its representatives and its officers are available on request in accordance with Sec. S.39(1) of the securities act of 1993. Investors should be aware that past results are no guarantee of future performance. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete information.

Weekly Outlook

The big news coming from the PIOJ reporting that the Jamaican economy has had another fall in GDP for its 3rd quarter, declining 0.6%. A notable decline came from the agriculture sector which had its 1st decline of 0.5% since December 2010 when the economy felt the effects of Hurricane Nicole. The only sectors which saw growth in the quarter were the hotel & restaurants sector, the finance & insurance sector and the wholesale & retail sector. After two quarters of declining GDP reported by STATIN, this has confirmed the fact that the nation is indeed in a recession. Against such a backdrop the local fx, equity and bond markets all saw declines for the week.

This week participants in the most recent Treasury bill auction held on November 21 demanded higher yields, reflected in a significant increase in 90 & 180 day rates. Participants in the 90-day instruments made bids between 6.20% and 8% bringing the average for the month of November to 6.90%, 52 basis points higher than the previous month. The offers were generally under-subscribed for the longer tenors, which could have been influenced by the reopening of the GOJ Variable Rate 7.755% Benchmark Investment Note – 2013B on the same day as the Tbill auction, in addition to an already

BARITA WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Page 4

Barita Investments Limited 15 St. Lucia Way, Kingston 5, Jamaica

Phone: 876-926-2681, Toll Free: 1-888-429-5333 Fax: 876-929-3490,

Email: [email protected]

conditions for Greece's next installment of aid.

Finally, signs that China's slowdown might be easing also improved sentiment. Data indicated that China's manufacturing sector is expanding for the first time in over a year. Global investors have been keeping a close eye on China given the country's once-in-a-decade change in leadership and how that could affect economic policy in the world's second-largest economy.

For the week the Dow index soared 3.3% to close at 13,010. The S&P 500 rose 3.6% to close at 1,409, while the Nasdaq increased by 4% to close the week at 2,967. Crude oil rose 1.7% for the week to end at $88.14 per barrel. Gold inched up by 2% for the week closing $1,748.50 per ounce.

tight J$ money market. The results confirm that the market still prefers to remain short and requires a much higher yield for longer term placement of funds.

Despite slowing economic growth, fundamentals remain strong in many blue-chip companies. Most have favourable financial positions with healthy balance sheets, and have turned out notable levels of growth despite weakness in the economy. Local stocks are also currently trading at attractive levels with trading ratios of 6-8 times price to earnings, creating a potentially good entry point for long-term investors. Though near-term risks could lead to more weakness in the short term, we believe now is a good time to build exposure to the local markets, particularly for investors with a medium- to longer-term time horizon.

Upcoming Events

Event Date Venue

Caribbean Producers AGM

January 28 at 3 p.m.

Sunset Beach Resort

& Spa , Montego Freeport

International Round-Up