29 JUNE – 03 JULY 2015

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

M

REFERENCE RATE

(USD) 63.6042

REPO RATE 7.25%

REVERSE REPO 6.25%

CRR 4%

INFLATION -2.36%

KEY RATES As on 26/06/2015

MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK

Indian Rupee after previous week’s

strength did not sustain on higher

side and continued to fall in the last

week although with less volatility

and finally closed on a positive note.

It was a range bound trade due to

month end demand of the weak

green back. However, strong Equity

markets infused the foreign capital

inflows which restricted the fall of

rupee to deeper supports. On the

other hand, global scenario remains

indecisive due to Greece debt talks

which did not clear off as rejection of

reforms by Creditors. But, it is

expected to resolve in the coming

week as Greece needs to pay the

debt of Euro 1.6bn till 30 June.

India's foreign exchange

reserves: $355 bn for 1st time.

Asia FX set for weekly slide on

Greek fears.

China manufacturing output

stabilizes as new orders

improve slightly.

Euro weaker after policy

makers’ trade barbs before

more Greek talks.

CURRENCIES PREVIOUS

RATE

CURRENT

RATE % CHANGE

USDINR 63.6250 63.9750 0.55

EURINR 71.8950 71.6375 -0.35

GBPINR 100.7550 100.5575 -0.19

JPYINR 51.6650 51.8700 0.39

USDINR

EURINR

USDINR last week consolidated around the strong support of 63.5000 and not so volatile

movements were seen and finally closed above it. If it gives any closing below this support then it

may drag towards the nearest support of 63.2000-63.0000. On higher side, 64.3000-64.5000 may

act as strict resistance range.

EURINR last week dragged down in the first half and then slight recovery in last two sessions

made it to close in negative territory. It crossed the trend line acting as support and closing

around it indicates that any closing above 71.8000 can lead it towards higher levels of 72.5000

while 70.9000 may act as crucial support below which free fall can be seen.

CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 63.5000

63.2000 62.9000 64.3000 64.5000 64.8000

EURINR 70.9000 70.5000 69.7000 72.0000 72.5000 73.2000

GBPINR 100.0000 99.6000 99.2000 101.2000 101.7000

102.1000

JPYINR 51.5000 51.2000 50.9000 52.1000

52.4000 52.7000

PIVOT TABLE

DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT BLOOMBERG

ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS

LEVEL

30-JUNE-2015 7:30

PM US

CB Consumer

Confidence 97.1 95.4

01-JULY-2015 5:45

PM US

ADP Non Farm

Employment

Change

216k 201k

01-JULY-2015 7:30

PM US

ISM

Manufacturing

PMI

53.2 52.8

02-JULY-2015 6:00

PM US

Unemployment

Rate 5.4% 5.5%

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Rose in May to Highest Since 2009.

German Business Confidence Falls as Greek Risk Weighs.

US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 271,000, an

increase of 3,000 from the previous week.

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

DISCLAIMER