weekly football tip sheet · secured the services of Steve Makinen once again to head the project....

weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 13NFL WEEK 12

college football week 13

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Football Weekly

With the football season cruising along, and the Thanksgiving Holiday rapidly approaching, we at the Vegas Insider Football Weekly would like to take this time to announce that once again we will be publishing our spectacular bowl game guide for coming season. We have secured the services of Steve Makinen once again to head the project. Steve and the rest of our normal team had a huge bowl season last year, and shared all of their thoughts and handicapping resources with readers in one 80+ page

tipsheet covering all 35 bowl games. Look for much of the same this year, as the 2013-14 Vegas Insider Bowl Guide will be available for download the week of the first bowl games, on or around Wednesday, Dec. 18. Be sure to stay tuned for that.

Back to the here and now however, thanks for downloading Week 13 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. We are incredibly excited this week as our guys finally came around in the NFL this past weekend, and in conjunction with our Strength Ratings enjoying a big week, produced a 8-1-1 record on Consensus Plays. Hopefully you were able to enjoy similar successes. Our Power Ratings and Bettors’ Ratings hit for the same record, making week 11 one to remember in the NFL for the group. With as off as stuff has been so far in 2013, perhaps this is a sign that things are ready to get back to normal, or at least the way they have been the last two or three seasons.

For week 13, we have all of the normal stuff on tap, plus a college football feature article expanding upon last week’s subject matter, looking at key stats and how they relate to against the spread results. A number of readers asked for us to dig a little deeper on the material, and we did just that for you. Included with more detailed records of the various stat categories are four different systems that you can employ in the coming weeks.

Both the NFL and College Football schedules are loaded with big games this weekend, and it starts early as far the feature contests, as our guys make selections on the big Wednesday night MAC game featuring Northern Illinois and Toledo. That game shows the Huskies as a slight 1 or 1.5-point favorite, a trend for this week, as all our feature games in the college ranks show lines of less than a touchdown.

Thanks for downloading this week’s issue and for your continued support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. As always we welcome your feedback. Best of luck from the entire Vegas Insider Staff on another full weekend of great football action!

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule ......................................................................2

NFL VI Picks ...................................................................................3

NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown ......................................4

NFL Top Weekly Trends ................................................................5

VegasInsider NFL Strength Ratings ............................................6

NFL Matchups ..............................................................................7

College Football VI Picks ..........................................................13

VegasInsider College Football Strength Ratings ....................14

College Football Head-to-Head Series Breakdown ..............16

Top NFL Performance Trends Week 10 ...................................20

College Football Matchups .....................................................22

College Football Top Weekly Trends .......................................34

Football Line Moves ..................................................................35

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105 N ILLINOIS -3 -2 145 VIRGINIA 58 58 193 SMU -5.5 -4P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN2 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM

106 TOLEDO 72.5 72.5 146 MIAMI FL -20 -21 194 SOUTH FLORIDA 55.5 55147 CINCINNATI 58 58 195 NEW MEXICO 65 65.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN148 HOUSTON -2.5 -3 196 FRESNO ST -31 -32

107 NEW ORLEANS -7 52.5 149 MEMPHIS 43 43 197 NEW MEXICO ST 55 55.5P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM

108 ATLANTA -7.5 52.5 150 LOUISVILLE -23 -25 198 FLA ATLANTIC -21 -22151 VANDERBILT 53.5 53.5 199 TULSA -3.5 -3

P: 9:20AM C: 11:20AM E: 12:20PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM CBSC109 RUTGERS 57.5 57.5 152 TENNESSEE -2.5 -3 200 LOUISIANA TECH 53 54.5

P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPN 153 MASSACHUSETTS 47 46.5 201 OKLAHOMA 54.5 54.5110 UCF -15 -17 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 111 RICE -14 -19 154 C MICHIGAN -8.5 -10 202 KANSAS ST -4 -3.5

P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM FSN 155 BOWLING GREEN -24 -24 203 MISSOURI -2 -2.5112 UAB 63.5 63.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 113 UNLV 61 61 156 E MICHIGAN 57 56.5 204 OLE MISS 56 57

P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM ESPNU 157 HAWAII 62.5 61.5 205 UTAH 53.5 53.5114 AIR FORCE 0 -1.5 P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM

158 WYOMING -6.5 -7.5 206 WASHINGTON ST -1 -1159 W KENTUCKY -3.5 -4 207 BOISE ST -7.5 -6.5

P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM CBSC115 NAVY 57 57 160 TEXAS ST UNIV 50.5 50.5 208 SAN DIEGO ST 57 58

P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM ESPN2 161 MICHIGAN 48 47.5116 SAN JOSE STATE -3 -2 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM

162 IOWA -3.5 -6163 ARIZONA ST -2 -2.5 209 TAMPA BAY 45.5 48

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 117 NEBRASKA 50.5 50 164 UCLA 61.5 62 210 DETROIT -9.5 -8.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 165 COLORADO ST 57.5 57.5 211 JACKSONVILLE 42 43118 PENN ST -2.5 -1.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBSC P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 119 ILLINOIS -6 -7 166 UTAH ST -7.5 -7.5 212 HOUSTON -10 -10

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 167 USC -22 -22 213 MINNESOTA 46 46120 PURDUE 56 56.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 121 PITTSBURGH -1.5 -1 168 COLORADO 53.5 53.5 214 GREEN BAY -3.5 -3.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 169 TEXAS A&M 70 71 215 SAN DIEGO 41.5 41.5122 SYRACUSE 49.5 49.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 123 CONNECTICUT 50.5 50.5 170 LSU -4 -4.5 216 KANSAS CITY -4.5 -5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 171 MISSISSIPPI ST -3 -2 217 CAROLINA -3.5 -3.5124 TEMPLE -7 -8 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 125 INDIANA 81 81 172 ARKANSAS 51.5 51.5 218 MIAMI 40 41

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 173 OREGON -18 -21 219 PITTSBURGH 41 41.5126 OHIO ST -32 -34 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 127 MICHIGAN ST -7 -7 174 ARIZONA 67 67 220 CLEVELAND -2.5 -2.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 175 UTEP 49 49 221 CHICAGO 46 46128 NORTHWESTERN 42.5 41.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 129 EAST CAROLINA -6 -6.5 176 TULANE -16 -17 222 ST LOUIS 0 -1

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 177 CALIFORNIA 56 56.5 223 NY JETS 40.5 40.5130 NC STATE 55 55 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 131 IDAHO 70 69 178 STANFORD -29 -32 224 BALTIMORE -3 -4

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 179 TX-SAN ANTONIO 49 48.5 225 TENNESSEE 41 41.5132 FLORIDA ST -56 -57 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 133 MARSHALL -33 -33 180 NORTH TEXAS -7 -8.5 226 OAKLAND -1.5 -1.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FOX 1 181 BYU 1 -1 227 INDIANAPOLIS 43.5 44.5134 FLA INTERNATIONAL54.5 55 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM NBC P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 135 KENTUCKY 63 62.5 182 NOTRE DAME 54.5 54 228 ARIZONA -1.5 -2.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 183 BAYLOR -11 -10 229 DALLAS 45.5 46.5136 GEORGIA -26 -24 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM ESPN137 KANSAS 47.5 45.5 184 OKLAHOMA ST 78 78 230 NY GIANTS -3 -2.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 185 MIDDLE TENN ST -21 -23 231 DENVER -3 -2.5138 IOWA ST -4.5 -6 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC139 DUKE -5.5 -5 186 SOUTHERN MISS 54.5 54.5 232 NEW ENGLAND 54.5 55.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 187 GEORGIA ST 57.5 57140 WAKE FOREST 50 49.5 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM 141 BOSTON COLLEGE 54 53.5 188 ARKANSAS ST -23 -24 233 SAN FRANCISCO -4 -4

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 189 WASHINGTON -2 -2 P: 5:40PM C: 7:40PM E: 8:40PM ESPN142 MARYLAND 0 -1 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 234 WASHINGTON 47.5 47.5143 WISCONSIN -15 -17 190 OREGON ST 64.5 64.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 191 LA MONROE 56.5 56.5144 MINNESOTA 50 50 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM

192 S ALABAMA -3 -3.5 301 W MICHIGAN 61 61P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2

302 N ILLINOIS -33 -33

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 14TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2013

NFL WEEK 12THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2013

COLLEGE FOOTBALL cont'd

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2013SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2013WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2013

COLLEGE FOOTBALL cont'dSATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2013

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2013

COLLEGE FOOTBALL cont'dFRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2013

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2013NFL WEEK 12 cont'd

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Football Weekly

VI Jim says…Talk about building false hope. The Giants’ current four game winning streak has been anything but inspiring to anyone who has actually watched them play during the stretch. How lucky can a team get, facing so many quarterbacks making their NFL starting debuts? You’d think the Giants would be routing these teams considering how “great” they’ve been playing. Well, now back in the hunt supposedly, New York finally faces a real quarterback, Tony Romo, and with Dallas off the bye week, I like the Cowboys’ chances. If for no other reason than Romo is playing far better football than Eli Manning right now, there is no reason Dallas should be the underdog this game. Cowboys get a big win in New York and put the Giants’ fictitious playoff hopes to rest.

VI Jason says…In games with very tight spreads, picking the team with the better defense usually makes sense. In this week’s Chicago-St Louis showdown, the choice is easy. No, it’s not the Bears, it’s the Rams. St Louis has the better pass rushing front four, they stop the run better, and have just been the better unit overall. The injuries for the Bears have certainly not helped their cause, but even still, this team seems to have a completely different identity without Urlacher in the fold this season. Quite frankly, I don’t like what I see, and had it not been for the Ravens turning the all over last week, Chicago would be 5-5 now. In my opinion, this Chicago team is on the edge ready to be pushed off the cliff. The Rams, coming off the bye week and their big win at Indy, are just the team to do the pushing. Rams win at home.

VI Paul says…With the loss of so many players, Baltimore has not been close by appearance to the team which won the Super Bowl last February and has just on victory since the second week of October. Nonetheless, this is a tremendous spot for the Ravens to bust out against the New York Jets at home. Gang Green is like a trip to the strip club (only what I’ve heard), where they tease us with upsets over New England and New Orleans at home, but is 1-4 SU on the road, being whipped by 17.2 points a contest. With Baltimore 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, I see at least a 13-point victory.

NFL V

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VI Jim 40-65 (38%) 13-18 (42%)*

VI Jason 46-59 (44%) 17-15 (53%)*

VI Paul 51-54 (49%) 15-16 (48%)*

Power Ratings52-53 (50%)

Effective Strength 54-51 (51%)

Forecaster 48-57 (46%)

Bettors Ratings 48-57 (46%)

Consensus 49-56 (47%)

November 21, 2013 - (107) NEW ORLEANS at (108) ATLANTA (+7.5)New

Orleans

New

Orleans

New

Orleans*

Atlanta New

Orleans

Atlanta Atlanta New

OrleansNovember 21, 2013 - (107) NEW ORLEANS at (108) ATLANTA - TOTAL (52.5)UNDER OVER OVER* UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

November 24, 2013 - (219) PITTSBURGH at (220) CLEVELAND (-2.5)Pittsburgh* Cleveland Cleveland Pittsburgh Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland

November 24, 2013 - (219) PITTSBURGH at (220) CLEVELAND - TOTAL (41.5)OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

November 24, 2013 - (221) CHICAGO at (222) ST LOUIS (-1)St Louis St Louis* St. Louis Chicago Chicago St. Louis Chicago St Louis

November 24, 2013 - (221) CHICAGO at (222) ST LOUIS - TOTAL (46)OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

November 24, 2013 - (223) NY JETS at (224) BALTIMORE (-3.5)Baltimore* Baltimore* Baltimore* Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore

November 24, 2013 - (223) NY JETS at (224) BALTIMORE - TOTAL (40.5)OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER

November 24, 2013 - (229) DALLAS at (230) NY GIANTS (-3)Dallas* NY

Giants*

Dallas Dallas Dallas Dallas NY Giants Dallas

November 24, 2013 - (229) DALLAS at (230) NY GIANTS - TOTAL (46.5)OVER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

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Football Weekly


For every issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming NFL matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order. NOVEMBER 21, 2013(107) NEW ORLEANS at (108) ATLANTALots of home cooking in this series lately -- as in four consecutive covers for home teams. Three of those came in the SuperDome, including a 23-17 Saints as 3’-point favorites win in Week 2. Last year in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons won 23-13 as only 3-point favorites. The Saints are on a 5-1 ATS streak dating back to 2010.

NOVEMBER 24, 2013(209) TAMPA BAY at (210) DETROITThe Lions have roared to an 8-2 ATS advantage since 2000. The exception came in the last meeting in Ford Field (2008), when the Bucs covered as 8-point favorites, 38-20. The last two games in Tampa (2010, 2011) both ended in Lions upset victories -- one game finishing over a total of 43’, the other equaling a total of 43.

(211) JACKSONVILLE at (212) HOUSTONThis will be the first of two meetings within only a 12-day span. Road teams have covered the last three times. Last year’s second game was a wild one -- 43-38 Houston -- that decimated a total of 40’, ending a streak of three consecutive unders. The Jags covered as 16-point underdogs, breaking a 3-0 Texans ATS run.

(213) MINNESOTA at (214) GREEN BAYThe Pack is on a 4-1 ATS run including the last two meetings -- 44-31 as 7-point road favorites in Week 8, and a 24-10 first-round 2012-13 playoff win as 11-point favorites in Lambeau. The exception was a meaningless Vikings win in the final week of the 2012 regular season. Home teams are on a 5-1 ATS run.

(215) SAN DIEGO at (216) KANSAS CITYThe Chargers posted double-digit covers in both meetings last year, when the teams had different coaching staffs. Both games stayed over the total, breaking a streak of four consecutive unders in the 2010-11 meetings. The Chargers have fared well at Arrowhead of late, going 4-2 SU (all as favorites) in the last six games dating back to 2007.

(217) CAROLINA at (218) MIAMIThis will be the first meeting since 2009, and only the fifth since 1998. For what it’s worth, the Dolphins are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run here. The two games in Miami occurred in 2005 (27-24 Dolphins as 3-point dogs) and 2001 (23-6 Dolphins as 9-point favorites). The Panthers will be on short rest after a Monday Night game.

(219) PITTSBURGH at (220) CLEVELANDHome teams have covered the last three in this series, and the Browns are on a 4-1 ATS run in Cleveland. Low totals have kept things in check at 6-4 unders since 2008. The only two times the line reached 40, the games finished way under. In the last 10 games, one side has been held to 10 points or less nine times.

(221) CHICAGO at (222) ST. LOUISThese teams meet for the second consecutive year following a two-year break. The Bears won 23-6 as 7-point home favorites last season. The last three games have finished under totals in the 41-45 range, and in each game, the Rams were held to single digits. The outlier was a 42-27 Bears win in St. Louis in 2006.

(223) NY JETS at (224) BALTIMOREEd Reed gets to say hello to his former teammates again, but the defending Super Bowl champions are on a 7-1 ATS roll in this series dating back to 1997. The lone Jets cover came in a 20-13 loss as 9’-point road dogs in 2007. In the last meeting (2011), the Ravens rolled 34-17 as 5-point home favorites.

(225) TENNESSEE at (226) OAKLANDThis will be the first meeting since 2010, and the first in Oakland since 2004. The Titans rolled to a 38-13 double-digit cover in the 2010 match-up, coming within a point of the 39 total all by themselves. Favorites have covered six of the last seven meetings. This will be Oakland’s only home game in a five-week span.

(227) INDIANAPOLIS at (228) ARIZONAThese teams haven’t met since 2009, and there have been only four meetings since 1992. The Peyton Manning-led Colts rolled to a 31-10 win in the desert in that last game, which stayed under a 49 total. All four games have finished under, and dogs are on a 3-0 ATS run. This will be Indy’s third road game in four weeks.

(229) DALLAS at (230) NY GIANTSThe Cowboys won 36-31 as 3’-point home favorites in Week 2. Favorites have covered three of the last four, the exception being a 24-17 Cowboys’ upset in the Big Apple in the first 2012 meeting. The G-Men are 8-4 ATS since 2008, however. Eight of the last 10 meetings have finished over totals stuck in a narrow 45-49 range.

(230) DENVER at (231) NEW ENGLANDThe recent patterns here are clear, as the Patriots are on a 3-0 ATS run as favorites, and all three games finishing over totals in the 47’-51 range. Included is a 45-10 Patriots rout of the Tim Tebow-led Broncos in the 2011-12 divisional round. Facing Peyton Manning last year, the Patriots won 31-21 as 6-point home favorites.

NOVEMBER 25, 2013(233) SAN FRANCISCO at (234) WASHINGTONThis will be the sixth meeting since 2000. Two of the previous five pushed ATS, and two others were within 4’ points of the spread. The outlier was a 52-17 Redskins’ home rout in 2005. This is the 49ers’ fourth road game in their last five, including the London trip. This is the first of three consecutive home games for the Redskins.

NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNN

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NFL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS

(107) NEW ORLEANS AT (108) ATLANTANEW ORLEANS is 22-13 ATS(L5Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(CS)( $770 Profit with a 20.0% ROI )

(213) MINNESOTA AT (214) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 26-12-1 ATS(L5Y) - AT LAMBEAU FIELD( $1280 Profit with a 29.8% ROI )

(209) TAMPA BAY AT (210) DETROITTAMPA BAY is 11-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - After SU win( $990 Profit with a 75.0% ROI )

20.0%ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY ON

29.8%ROI

75.0%ROI

(225) TENNESSEE AT (226) OAKLANDTENNESSEE is 9-1 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - VS AFC-WEST( $790 Profit with a 71.8% ROI )

(231) DENVER AT (232) NEW ENGLANDDENVER is 16-4 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(CS)( $1160 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(213) MINNESOTA AT (214) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 12-3 OVER(L5Y) at HOME as FAV - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75 yards per attempt(CS)( $870 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

71.8%ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

52.7%ROI

52.7%ROI

(209) TAMPA BAY AT (210) DETROITDETROIT is 10-20-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per play(CS)( $900 Profit with a 25.6% ROI )

(219) PITTSBURGH AT (220) CLEVELANDPITTSBURGH is 1-14 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against mediocre teams being outscored by opponents by more than 4.0 points per game(CS)( $1290 Profit with a 78.2% ROI )

(221) CHICAGO AT (222) ST LOUISCHICAGO is 4-15 ATS(L5Y) - OU line of 45 or more( $1060 Profit with a 50.7% ROI )

25.6%ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

78.2%ROI

50.7%ROI

(215) SAN DIEGO AT (216) KANSAS CITYKANSAS CITY is 13-2-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1 yards per attempt(CS)( $1080 Profit with a 61.4% ROI )

(227) INDIANAPOLIS AT (228) ARIZONAINDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - 1500 or more travel miles( $790 Profit with a 71.8% ROI )

(233) SAN FRANCISCO AT (234) WASHINGTONWASHINGTON is 10-3 UNDER(L3Y) as DOG - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(CS)( $670 Profit with a 46.9% ROI )

61.4%ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

71.8%ROI

46.9%ROI

NFL TO

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Football Weekly


Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in VegasInsider Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s

performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?107 NEW ORLEANS -7.5 27 31.9 NO 28.7 26.7 108 ATLANTA 52.5 17 6.8 19.2 22.0 24.9 ATL 209 TAMPA BAY 48 17 18.1 18.6 15.8 210 DETROIT -8.5 23 -10.1 27.8 26.8 28.0 211 JACKSONVILLE 43 11 17.6 OVER 16.9 14.6 212 HOUSTON -10 18 -9.9 30.4 29.4 28.6 213 MINNESOTA 46 17 23.6 25.9 MIN 21.7 214 GREEN BAY -3.5 17 -3.8 26.1 24.9 OVER 21.7 215 SAN DIEGO 41.5 22 14.4 16.2 16.1 216 KANSAS CITY -5 26 -6.4 24.7 KC 22.0 21.1 217 CAROLINA -3.5 25 25.1 CAR 22.2 23.1 218 MIAMI 41 20 2.0 15.7 16.5 20.6 219 PITTSBURGH 41.5 20 20.5 20.4 19.8 220 CLEVELAND -2.5 19 -2.1 24.1 23.7 23.9 221 CHICAGO 46 22 24.9 22.8 24.4 222 ST LOUIS -1 19 0.6 24.7 27.6 22.4 223 NY JETS 40.5 19 14.9 16.8 17.2 224 BALTIMORE -4 21 -6.1 28.3 BAL 24.9 22.3 225 TENNESSEE 41.5 19 23.3 21.2 21.2 226 OAKLAND -1.5 18 -1.5 21.6 22.7 18.5 227 INDIANAPOLIS 44.5 23 22.4 21.2 18.2 UNDER228 ARIZONA -2.5 22 -2.4 23.1 24.7 18.5 229 DALLAS 46.5 22 25.7 DAL 22.8 22.0 230 NY GIANTS -2.5 20 -1.4 20.3 21.2 24.5 231 DENVER -2.5 31 29.9 27.6 31.0 232 NEW ENGLAND 55.5 25 3.0 25.7 28.5 26.9 233 SAN FRANCISCO -4 27 28.2 SF 24.1 24.6 234 WASHINGTON 47.5 20 4.4 18.9 22.0 22.0

VEGASINSIDER NFL STRENGTH RATINGS

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(309) INDIANAPOLIS (-3 | 41.5) [SU:6-3 | ATS:5-4] AT (310) TENNESSEE [SU:4-5 | ATS:5-3-1]NOVEMBER 14, 2013 8:25 PM on NFL - LP FIELD (NASHVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NDIANAPOLIS 24.7 20 25-109 [4.4] 36-21-239 [6.7] 14.1 21.4 19 29-127 [4.3] 32-19-241 [7.6] 17.2 +3 +3.3 TENNESSEE 22.2 18 28-111 [4.0] 33-19-212 [6.5] 14.5 21.8 19 28-115 [4.1] 32-20-211 [6.6] 15.0 +4 +0.4

The Colts travel on short rest, searching for answers after an unexpected home blowout loss to the Rams. The loss of Reggie Wayne, coupled with the lack of a running game has put too much pressure on Andrew Luck and an increasingly leaky defense. After becoming the Jaguars’ first victims, the Titans are home again before three consecutive road games. Jake Locker could be out for the season with a foot injury, leaving the job to Ryan Fitzpatrick. At two games behind Indy, the Titans badly need this game in the divisional race. The Colts are 3-1 ATS in road games this season. The Titans are 3-11 ATS against division opponents since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 10-0 ATS(L10G) - After SU loss• TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS(L3Y) - VS AFC-SOUTH• INDIANAPOLIS is 12-2 UNDER(L3Y) - VS AFC-SOUTH

(403) ATLANTA (-1 | 43.5) [SU:2-7 | ATS:2-7] AT (404) TAMPA BAY [SU:1-8 | ATS:3-6]NOVEMBER 17, 2013 1:00 PM on FOX - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ATLANTA 20.7 20 18-64 [3.5] 41-28-275 [6.7] 16.4 27.9 21 28-127 [4.6] 33-22-252 [7.5] 13.6 -8 -7.2 TAMPA BAY 16.2 19 28-111 [4.0] 36-20-189 [5.3] 18.5 23.2 20 25-96 [3.8] 35-23-237 [6.8] 14.4 +2 -7.0

The wheels have come off for Mike Smith and the Falcons, and last year’s deep playoff run is way in the rearview mirror. They have been outscored 33-94 in the last three weeks, sit at 2-7 SU and ATS, and are on the road -- where they are 0-4 SU -- for the third time in four weeks. All that said; they get a shot at a Bucs team coming off its first win, and only second in 15 games dating back to last season. The Falcons are 5-9 ATS against NFC South opponents since 2011. The Bucs are 3-4 ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less, and 6-12 ATS in home games since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 30%+ WINNING PCT(CS)• TAMPA BAY is 4-14 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - AS underdog of 7 or less points• ATLANTA is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 20%+ WINNING PCT(CS)

(405) NY JETS [SU:5-4 | ATS:6-3] AT (406) BUFFALO (-1.5 | 41) [SU:3-7 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 17, 2013 1:00 PM on CBS - RALPH WILSON STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY JETS 18.8 18 31-129 [4.2] 31-18-202 [6.5] 17.6 25.7 18 23-74 [3.1] 39-23-251 [6.5] 12.6 -10 -6.9 BUFFALO 19.9 19 32-141 [4.3] 35-19-192 [5.5] 16.7 25.9 20 30-117 [3.9] 37-21-239 [6.5] 13.7 -1 -6.0

The Bills will be seeking home revenge after losing 27-20 as 2’-point road dogs in Week 3. The Jets are coming off their bye week at 5-4 SU/6-3 ATS, and with a leg up in the race for the second wildcard. The Bills have been outscored 40-78 in losing their last three games SU and ATS. E.J. Manuel struggled in his return as starting QB last week. Running against the Jets’ No. 1-rated rushing defense won’t be any easier than it was against the Steelers. The Jets are -10 in turnover ratio; the Bills are -1. The Jets are 7-11 ATS in road games since 2011. The Bills are 11-8 ATS in home games since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• BUFFALO is 10-4 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - After ATS loss• NY JETS is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per

carry(CS)• BUFFALO is 11-3 UNDER(S2000) as FAV - In November

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(107) NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 | 52.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:6-4] AT (108) ATLANTA [SU:2-8 | ATS:2-8]NOVEMBER 21, 2013 8:25 PM on NFL - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DEW ORLEANS 28.8 23 25-97 [3.9] 41-28-322 [7.9] 14.5 18.3 17 23-114 [4.9] 32-18-191 [6.0] 16.7 +3 +10.5 ATLANTA 21.4 20 18-73 [4.0] 41-27-274 [6.7] 16.2 29.2 21 29-133 [4.6] 33-22-249 [7.6] 13.1 -11 -7.8

What once looked like a division showdown game is now an 8-2 v. 2-8 potential mismatch. The Saints are only 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS on the road this season, but that’s nothing compared to the Falcons’ total collapse after appearing in the NFC title game. They are 1-7 SU/ATS in their last eight games, and in their last four, have been outscored 61-135. The Saints remain No. 2 in total yards gained and No. 4 in total yards allowed. They are 9-12 ATS in road games since 2011, and 2-3 ATS as road favorites of 3’-7 points in that time. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS as underdogs this season and 2-10 ATS against winning teams since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ORLEANS is 22-11 ATS(L3Y) - As favorite• ATLANTA is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - Conference games• NEW ORLEANS is 22-12 OVER(L5Y) - After OU under

(209) TAMPA BAY [SU:2-8 | ATS:4-6] AT (210) DETROIT (-9 | 48.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on FOX - FORD FIELD (DETROIT, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TAMPA BAY 18.7 19 29-119 [4.1] 34-20-192 [5.6] 16.6 23.7 20 25-101 [4.1] 36-23-240 [6.7] 14.4 +5 -5.0 DETROIT 26.5 23 26-104 [4.0] 42-25-310 [7.4] 15.6 25.3 20 23-95 [4.1] 40-24-284 [7.2] 15.0 -2 +1.2

This will be the Lions’ first home game in four weeks including a bye, and will be followed four days later by their traditional Thanksgiving home game. The Bucs have awakened with back-to-back home wins after an 0-8 start. The key has been a running game (189 yards last week) that has taken pressure off rookie QB Mike Glennon. But can they take this recent success on the road? They did extend the Seahawks to OT in Seattle three weeks ago. Detroit is 3-0 SU but only 1-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7’-10 points since 2011. Tampa Bay is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as road underdogs of 7’-10 points since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• TAMPA BAY is 14-5 ATS(L5Y) - In November• DETROIT is 16-26-2 ATS(L5Y) - OU line of 45 or more• DETROIT is 23-9 OVER(L5Y) - As favorite

(211) JACKSONVILLE [SU:1-9 | ATS:2-8] AT (212) HOUSTON (-10 | 43.5) [SU:2-8 | ATS:2-8]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on CBS - RELIANT STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF JACKSONVILLE 12.9 16 22-62 [2.8] 37-21-216 [5.9] 21.6 31.8 22 32-139 [4.3] 33-22-253 [7.7] 12.3 -7 -18.9HOUSTON 19.3 21 27-120 [4.4] 41-25-258 [6.3] 19.6 27.6 16 28-119 [4.2] 27-16-167 [6.1] 10.4 -11 -8.3

The week’s worst matchup -- 1-9 SU/2-8 ATS v. 2-8 SU/1-8-1 ATS -- kicks off in Reliant Stadium. The Jaguars’ only SU win came two weeks ago at Tennessee, while the Texans’ lone ATS cover came at Kansas City on Oct. 20. For the season, the Jags have been beaten by an average score of 31-13, and all nine losses have been by 10 points or more. Case Keenum doesn’t appear to be the answer in Houston, and the Texans have multiple issues from the head-coaching position on down. The Jags are 0-3 SU/1-1 ATS as road underdogs of 7’-10 points since 2011. The Texans will be seeking their first home cover of the season (0-5 ATS).

GAME TRENDS• JACKSONVILLE is 15-10-1 ATS(L5Y) - VS AFC-SOUTH• HOUSTON is 11-20 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per

play(CS)• JACKSONVILLE is 21-9 UNDER(L3Y) - Conference games




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(213) MINNESOTA [SU:2-8 | ATS:4-6] AT (214) GREEN BAY (-5 | 44) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on FOX - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MINNESOTA 24.0 18 24-111 [4.6] 34-20-206 [6.0] 13.2 32.0 23 28-112 [3.9] 39-26-279 [7.1] 12.2 -8 -8.0 GREEN BAY 25.8 22 29-134 [4.7] 35-23-283 [8.1] 16.2 23.9 19 25-104 [4.1] 34-21-247 [7.3] 14.7 -6 +1.9

Life without Aaron Rodgers is proving to be rather difficult for the Packers, as other weaknesses are being exposed. Including the Bears game in which Rodgers was hurt, the Packers are 0-3 and have been outscored 81-46, allowing 27 points in each game. The defense has slipped to 18th in total yards and points allowed per game. This will be the second of back-to-back road games for the Vikings, who were blown out in Seattle last week. Adrian Peterson has a lingering groin injury that could limit him. Green Bay is 13-3 ATS against NFC North opponents since 2011 (2-1 ATS in 2013). The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in Weeks 10-13 since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• GREEN BAY is 20-8 ATS(L5Y) - After ATS loss• MINNESOTA is 2-7-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against big play passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards

per attempt(CS)• GREEN BAY is 19-8 UNDER(L5Y) as FAV - VS NFC-NORTH

(215) SAN DIEGO [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (216) KANSAS CITY (-5 | 41.5) [SU:9-1 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on CBS - ARROWHEAD STADIUM (KANSAS CITY, MO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN DIEGO 22.8 24 28-111 [4.0] 36-25-288 [8.0] 17.5 22.2 21 24-112 [4.8] 35-24-276 [7.9] 17.5 -6 +0.6 KANSAS CITY 23.2 19 28-121 [4.3] 36-21-198 [5.5] 13.8 13.8 18 25-117 [4.7] 36-20-220 [6.0] 24.4 +15 +9.4

There are no more undefeated teams in the NFL, but the Chiefs have a chance to rebound against the reeling Chargers in their first home game in four weeks including a bye. The Chiefs offense is 24th in total yards per game, while the defense is only 20th in rushing yards allowed per game, but 2nd in points allowed. The Chargers have lost three in a row SU and ATS after being upset in Miami, and are playing their fourth road game in their last five. San Diego is 1-9 ATS in November games in the last three seasons. For all the Arrowhead mystique, the Chiefs are only 2-3 ATS there as favorites this season (but 5-0 SU).

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1

yards per attempt(CS)• SAN DIEGO is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) - In November• KANSAS CITY is 18-3 UNDER(L3Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards

per play(CS)

(217) CAROLINA (-4 | 41) [SU:7-3 | ATS:7-3] AT (218) MIAMI [SU:5-5 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on FOX - SUN LIFE STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 23.8 21 31-125 [4.0] 30-19-196 [6.5] 13.5 13.5 17 22-84 [3.8] 34-23-209 [6.1] 21.7 +10 +10.3 MIAMI 21.3 18 21-89 [4.1] 37-22-219 [6.0] 14.5 22.5 21 30-123 [4.1] 37-22-242 [6.6] 16.2 0 -1.2

Any more questions about the Panthers being legit title contender after back-to-back wins over San Francisco and New England? The Panthers’ run has extended to six in a row SU/ATS. Amidst a distraction they’d rather not have to deal with, the Dolphins took advantage of Chargers’ penalties and bad tackling to pull a home upset and stay in the AFC’s 2nd wildcard race. However, teams coming off home upsets are 3-15 ATS this season. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS this season, and 5-2 ATS as favorites of 3’-9’ points since 2011. The Dolphins are 4-2 ATS as underdogs this season, and 5-2 ATS when playing winning teams in the second half since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• CAROLINA is 10-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 8.0 points per game(CS)• MIAMI is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - VS NFC-SOUTH• MIAMI is 14-6-2 UNDER(L3Y) - After OU under




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(219) PITTSBURGH [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6] AT (220) CLEVELAND (-2.5 | 41.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on CBS - CLEVELAND BROWNS STADIUM (CLEVELAND, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 21.6 20 23-76 [3.4] 38-25-267 [6.9] 15.9 24.5 19 29-125 [4.2] 32-19-216 [6.6] 13.9 -8 -2.9 CLEVELAND 19.2 18 22-84 [3.8] 42-23-234 [5.5] 16.6 23.8 19 28-99 [3.5] 38-22-207 [5.5] 12.9 -3 -4.6

The Steelers take to the road after a home upset of the Lions. Problem is Mike Tomlin’s team is 1-4 SU/ATS away from Heinz Field, including a London loss to the Vikings and allowing 55 points in at loss at New England. Defensive coaching adjustments that shut down Calvin Johnson led to the Steelers win last week. Even after allowing 41 points in a loss in Cincinnati, the Browns defense is 5th in passing yards and total yards allowed per game. The Browns are only 1-4 ATS as home favorites of 3 or less this season. The Steelers are 6-15 ATS in road games since 2011, and 5-10 ATS when playing losing teams over that time span.

GAME TRENDS• CLEVELAND is 11-4-3 ATS(L3Y) - Against passive defenses forcing less than 1.5 turnovers per

game(CS)• PITTSBURGH is 6-21 ATS(L5Y) - Against mediocre teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 4.0 points per game(CS)• CLEVELAND is 25-15-2 UNDER(L3Y) - All Games

(221) CHICAGO [SU:6-4 | ATS:2-7-1] AT (222) ST LOUIS (-1 | 46) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on FOX - EDWARD JONES DOME (ST LOUIS, MO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CHICAGO 28.2 20 25-110 [4.5] 37-23-257 [7.0] 13.0 26.7 21 30-134 [4.5] 32-20-239 [7.6] 14.0 +10 +1.5 ST LOUIS 22.4 18 26-99 [3.8] 35-20-217 [6.2] 14.1 23.4 20 27-114 [4.2] 31-20-237 [7.7] 15.0 +5 -1.0

The Rams come off a bye week for their only home game in a five-week span. Tavon Austin leads the Rams with only five TDs, and three of those came in one game. The Bears squeaked by the Ravens in the weather-interrupted game to climb back to a first-place tie in the division. Their offense remains productive under Josh McCown -- as is No. 3 in points scored. The defense is 31st in rushing yards and 26th in points allowed per game. The Rams are 1-5 ATS against NFC opponents this season and 1-5 ATS as favorites since 2011. The Bears are 5-10 ATS as underdogs since 2011, and 1-6 ATS against NFC opponents this year.

GAME TRENDS• ST LOUIS is 12-3 ATS(L5Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• CHICAGO is 5-14 ATS(L2Y) - Conference games• CHICAGO is 23-11 UNDER(L5Y) - As underdog

(223) NY JETS [SU:5-5 | ATS:6-4] AT (224) BALTIMORE (-3.5 | 40) [SU:4-6 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 1:00 PM on CBS - M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY JETS 18.3 17 30-129 [4.3] 31-17-195 [6.3] 17.7 26.8 18 25-73 [2.9] 38-23-251 [6.7] 12.1 -14 -8.5 BALTIMORE 20.8 19 28-83 [3.0] 38-22-225 [6.0] 14.8 21.2 17 28-103 [3.7] 35-21-237 [6.8] 16.0 -5 -0.4

The Jets’ win-one, lose-one pattern has held up through 10 weeks, and it calls for a win this week. Trouble is, there also is a Good-Geno-at-home, Bad-Geno-on-the-road pattern in effect, and this one will be played in Baltimore. The Ravens missed an opportunity to return to serious playoff relevancy by losing in the weather-interrupted game in Soldier Field. So now what? The Ravens also will be coming off back-to-back overtime games. They are 5-1 against the spread as home favorites of 3’-7 points since 2011. The Jets are 1-4 versus the spread as an underdog of 3’-7 points since 2011, and 4-9 ATS off a division game over that period.

GAME TRENDS• BALTIMORE is 12-4-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - as favorite of 7 or less points• NY JETS is 3-9-1 ATS(L5Y) as DOG - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards

per carry(CS)• BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - as favorite of 7 or less points




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(225) TENNESSEE [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-3-2] AT (226) OAKLAND (-1 | 41.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:6-3-1]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 4:05 PM on CBS - O.CO COLISEUM (OAKLAND, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE 22.7 18 28-112 [4.1] 32-20-212 [6.6] 14.3 22.6 19 29-117 [4.1] 32-20-213 [6.6] 14.6 +3 +0.1 OAKLAND 19.4 16 29-146 [5.0] 31-18-186 [6.1] 17.1 24.6 20 26-98 [3.8] 36-23-252 [7.1] 14.2 +1 -5.2

The Titans will be playing on extra rest after losing to Indy last Thursday night. They have lost five of their last six SU. Ryan Fitzpatrick has put up back-to-back QB ratings of 111 in his two starts. This is the only home game in five weeks for Raiders. Don’t get into a ball-control, run-dominated game with them, as they are No. 5 in rushing yards and No. 7 in rushing yards allowed. New Raiders QB Matthew McGloin was undrafted out of Penn State. The Titans are 4-0 ATS on the road this season, and 3-1 as road dogs of 3 or less since 2011. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or less since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) as DOG - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5

PPG(CS)• OAKLAND is 8-18-1 ATS(L5Y) - After SU win• TENNESSEE is 8-2 OVER(L10G) - VS AFC-WEST

(227) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (228) ARIZONA (-2.5 | 44.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 4:05 PM on CBS - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 25.2 20 26-112 [4.4] 36-21-238 [6.7] 13.9 22.0 19 29-126 [4.4] 31-19-239 [7.6] 16.6 +4 +3.2 ARIZONA 21.4 19 24-86 [3.6] 36-22-241 [6.7] 15.3 21.2 20 24-81 [3.4] 41-24-243 [6.0] 15.3 +1 +0.2

The 7-3 Colts will play on extra rest after winning in Tennessee last Thursday. They are 4-1 SU/ATS on the road, the lone losing coming at San Diego in Week 6. Meanwhile, the 6-4 Cardinals are thinking playoffs, and winning this Bruce Arians Bowl would legitimize those thoughts. What’s for real is their defense that ranks 2nd in rushing yards, and 8th in total yards and points allowed per game. Michael Floyd also is emerging on the other side of Larry Fitzgerald. The Colts are 9-6 ATS when playing winning teams since 2011. The Cardinals are 10-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 2011, but 5-11 ATS when playing winning teams over that period.

GAME TRENDS• ARIZONA is 15-6-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(CS)• INDIANAPOLIS is 3-7 ATS(L3Y) - More than 6 days rest• INDIANAPOLIS is 15-5-1 OVER(L5Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.15

yards per attempt(CS)

(229) DALLAS [SU:5-5 | ATS:7-3] AT (230) NY GIANTS (-2.5 | 46.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 4:25 PM on FOX - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DALLAS 27.4 19 20-77 [3.9] 37-24-251 [6.8] 12.0 25.8 25 26-127 [4.9] 42-28-313 [7.4] 17.1 +11 +1.6 NY GIANTS 19.2 18 24-77 [3.2] 37-21-244 [6.6] 16.7 25.6 20 27-98 [3.6] 38-23-238 [6.2] 13.1 -11 -6.4

The Cowboys come off their bye week for this rematch. They won 36-31 in Dallas in Week 1, starting the Giants on an 0-6 tailspin. But the G-Men are on a four-game 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS streak, and remain in the NFC Least race. Did the time off give the Cowboys enough time to make adjustments to a defense that has sunk to dead-last in passing yards and total yards allowed? These teams are 24th and 25th in points allowed. For all their struggles -- real and imagined -- the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS this year. But they also are 10-20 ATS against NFC opponents since 2011. The Giants are 4-1 ATS as home favorites of 3 or less since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• DALLAS is 15-9 ATS(L5Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points• NY GIANTS is 4-13 ATS(L5Y) - In November• NY GIANTS is 22-12 UNDER(L3Y) - OU line of 45 or more


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(231) DENVER (-2.5 | 55.5) [SU:9-1 | ATS:6-3-1] AT (232) NEW ENGLAND [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 24, 2013 8:30 PM on NBC - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DENVER 39.8 27 29-105 [3.6] 41-29-350 [8.5] 11.4 25.5 21 25-93 [3.7] 40-23-279 [6.9] 14.6 -2 +14.3 NEW ENGLAND 25.4 22 29-127 [4.3] 38-22-237 [6.2] 14.3 19.9 21 29-126 [4.3] 37-21-229 [6.2] 17.8 +7 +5.5

The Broncos continue their streak of being favored in every game this season. Denver’s offense put up 27 points and 427 yards against the top-rated Chiefs’ defense -- and well-protected Peyton Manning rarely even got touched. And now they’ll face a Patriots defense that is missing key performers, and has slipped to 27th in rushing yards and 20th in passing yards allowed (but 7th in points allowed). Since 2011, the Broncos are 17-9 ATS as favorites, 6-3 ATS off wins over division rivals, and 8-1 ATS in November games. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS at home this season, and since 2011 are 6-0 ATS against the AFC West and 6-2 ATS in November games.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS(L5Y) - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles• DENVER is 5-12 ATS(L5Y) - AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 70%+ WINNING PCT(CS)• DENVER is 23-10 OVER(L5Y) - OU line of 45 or more

(233) SAN FRANCISCO (-5 | 47) [SU:6-4 | ATS:7-3] AT (234) WASHINGTON [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 25, 2013 8:40 PM on ESPN - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2012 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN FRANCISCO 24.7 17 32-141 [4.5] 25-14-168 [6.7] 12.5 17.8 18 27-103 [3.9] 37-21-220 [6.0] 18.1 +6 +6.9 WASHINGTON 24.6 24 31-155 [5.1] 38-23-257 [6.7] 16.7 31.1 23 27-115 [4.3] 34-23-275 [8.0] 12.5 -3 -6.5

How will the 49ers rebound after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Carolina and New Orleans? Given the Redskins’ 3-7 SU/ATS mark, and an uncomfortable relationship with Robert Griffin III, you have to begin to wonder about Mike Shanahan’s long-term status. This will be the first of three consecutive home games for Washington. The 49ers passing attack has sunk to No. 32, but their defense is No. 4 in points allowed and No. 9 in total yards allowed per game. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS as road favorites of 3’-7 points since 2011. The Skins are 1-6 ATS as underdogs this season, and 5-2 ATS when playing winning teams in the second half since 2011.

GAME TRENDS• SAN FRANCISCO is 24-8-3 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards

per play(CS)• WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS(L10G) at HOME - On Monday• WASHINGTON is 23-11 UNDER(L5Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3

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VI Jim 54-64 (46%) 18-18 (50%)*

VI Jason 59-59 (50%)10-25 (29%)*

VI Paul 58-60 (49%) 16-18 (47%)*

Power Ratings66-52 (56%)

Effective Strength 63-55 (53%)

Forecaster 58-60 (49%)

Bettors Ratings 56-62 (47%)

Consensus 63-55 (53%)

November 20, 2013 - (105) N ILLINOIS at (106) TOLEDO (+2)Toledo* N Illinois* Toledo* Toledo Toledo Toledo Toledo Toledo

November 21, 2013 - (113) UNLV at (114) AIR FORCE (-1.5)Air Force Air Force UNLV UNLV UNLV UNLV Air Force UNLV

Friday, November 22, 2013 - (115) NAVY at (116) SAN JOSE ST (-2)San Jose

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November 23, 2013 - (121) PITTSBURGH at (122) SYRACUSE (+1)Syracuse Pittsburgh Pittsburgh* Syracuse Pittsburgh Syracuse Syracuse Syracuse

November 23, 2013 - (139) DUKE at (140) WAKE FOREST (+5)Duke* Wake

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November 23, 2013 - (147) CINCINNATI at (148) HOUSTON (-3)Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston

November 23, 2013 - (161) MICHIGAN at (162) IOWA (-6)Michigan Iowa Michigan Michigan Iowa Iowa Michigan Michigan

November 23, 2013 - (169) TEXAS A&M at (170) LSU (-4.5)Texas

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November 23, 2013 - (181) BYU at (182) NOTRE DAME (+1)Notre

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November 23, 2013 - (203) MISSOURI at (204) OLE MISS (+3)Missouri* Missouri Missouri Missouri Missouri Ole Miss Ole Miss Missouri

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

VI Jim says...The old saying is that a good defense will beat a good offense. Well, in this SEC battle between Missouri and Ole Miss, the visiting Tigers not only boast a far better defense, their offense is also better and I believe vastly underrated. They run for nearly 6 yards per carry and boast great balance as well with either Mauk or Franklin quarterbacking. There is a reason they are favored on the road in what figures to be a tough environment. I also like the way that Missouri has responded the last couple of games since giving the game away against South Carolina. This is a must win for Mizzou if they still hope to face Alabama in the SEC title game. It won’t be real easy, but the Tigers get it done in Oxford.

VI Jason says…Tough travels for the Navy this week as they go cross country to take on a San Jose State team that has been tough to beat on its home turf. Starting with the Spartans’ home finale upset win over the Midshipmen in 2011, they have won11 of 12 games at Spartan Stadium, the lone loss coming at the hands of Utah State. With the line of this game near the pick em’ mark, all that San Jose has to do is win, something they have done against the Middies in back-to-back seasons. Meanwhile, Navy is allowing over 34 points per game on the road, as teams are passing the ball all over the yard against them. Look for San Jose to do the same thing in a decisive victory Friday night.

VI Paul says…Texas A&M might not have lost on the road the past two years (7-0 SU) with Johnny Manziel bailing them out more than once. However, the Aggies defense is deplorable in surrendering 38.3 points a game in SEC action. This is where LSU and its pro-style offense will enjoy a huge day. Zack Mettenberger has the skill to be a NFL quarterback and has wide receivers that will be playing on Sunday’s around him, giving them a distinct edge to generate big plays all day. The Tigers defense will be put to the test, but I see them forcing Texas A&M to settle for a couple of field goals, which allows them to build a working margin and a cover.

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Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in VegasInsider Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season.

The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?105 N ILLINOIS -2 42 26.1 UNDER 27.9 UNDER 33.5 106 TOLEDO 72.5 38 0.3 36.7 TOL 35.1 TOL 35.7 109 RUTGERS 57.5 33 18.4 21.3 25.2 RUT110 UCF -17 46 -17.0 42.0 UCF 34.4 37.0 OVER 111 RICE -18.5 37 39.4 34.9 UNDER 34.7 112 UAB 63.5 16 18.5 20.2 22.8 UAB 26.5 UAB 113 UNLV 61 26 31.8 33.0 UNLV 30.8 114 AIR FORCE -1.5 23 0.5 28.9 29.3 34.4 115 NAVY 57 35 30.3 NAVY 25.1 UNDER 29.7 OVER116 SAN JOSE ST -2 32 0.0 23.9 27.4 35.9 117 NEBRASKA 50 42 29.2 OVER 26.1 OVER 23.7 118 PENN ST -1.5 40 -2.0 27.0 29.8 24.9 119 ILLINOIS -7 31 35.9 ILL 34.0 29.0 120 PURDUE 56.5 21 7.3 22.6 25.6 24.6 121 PITTSBURGH -1 40 26.8 23.5 27.1 OVER122 SYRACUSE 49.5 36 0.0 25.0 25.7 26.9 123 CONNECTICUT 50.5 22 21.3 24.8 OVER 23.1 CON124 TEMPLE -8 28 -8.5 32.4 31.2 23.2 125 INDIANA 81 38 22.6 IND 24.6 IND 27.0 IND126 OHIO ST -34 64 -30.0 52.1 UNDER 48.0 UNDER 50.6 127 MICHIGAN ST -7 52 27.4 OVER 21.4 19.4 128 NORTHWESTERN 41.5 42 7.0 20.9 19.9 NW 21.0 NW 129 EAST CAROLINA -6.5 42 34.0 29.6 23.4 130 NC STATE 55 32 5.8 24.8 28.7 NCST 28.4 NCST 131 IDAHO 69 9 0.8 8.0 IDA 1.0 132 FLORIDA ST -57 70 -65.5 66.4 FST 54.8 UNDER 65.2 FST 133 MARSHALL -32.5 41 49.3 MAR 41.5 OVER 38.6 134 FLA INTERNATIONAL 55 6 32.5 9.9 19.4 FIU 12.4 FIU 135 KENTUCKY 62.5 34 19.2 23.9 KEN 20.9 136 GEORGIA -24 54 -25.0 41.9 38.0 44.0 137 KANSAS 45.5 27 24.2 OVER 22.6 OVER 16.6 138 IOWA ST -6 28 -4.8 29.7 28.5 28.7 IST 139 DUKE -5 42 30.7 DUKE 25.3 27.6 140 WAKE FOREST 49.5 32 7.3 20.8 23.4 24.6 141 BOSTON COLLEGE 53.5 39 27.3 24.3 29.1 OVER142 MARYLAND -1 37 -1.0 27.4 27.1 29.8 143 WISCONSIN -16.5 59 34.2 26.8 UNDER 32.6 144 MINNESOTA 50 40 15.5 17.3 16.0 MIN 13.4 145 VIRGINIA 58 29 18.9 26.4 VIR 16.6 UNDER146 MIAMI FL -20.5 44 -19.0 41.1 31.6 35.4 147 CINCINNATI 58 41 24.8 26.0 27.5 148 HOUSTON -3 41 -3.3 34.2 HOU 32.6 32.0 149 MEMPHIS 43 32 10.9 13.5 MEM 7.7 150 LOUISVILLE -24.5 53 -24.5 35.0 25.8 33.5

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BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 151 VANDERBILT 53.5 42 29.4 OVER 27.0 22.4 152 TENNESSEE -3 40 -1.0 28.7 27.7 30.1 TEN 153 MASSACHUSETTS 46.5 15 21.6 MAS 21.9 MAS 20.3 154 C MICHIGAN -10 22 -9.5 23.8 22.9 26.2 155 BOWLING GREEN -24 40 45.2 BG 33.7 39.6 156 E MICHIGAN 56.5 12 26.0 12.1 19.4 EMU 16.8 157 HAWAII 61.5 22 25.8 UNDER 32.5 HAW 30.0 OVER158 WYOMING -7.5 25 -6.5 31.1 33.4 40.5 159 W KENTUCKY -4 31 27.9 24.3 27.4 160 TEXAS ST UNIV 50.5 25 2.0 22.7 22.2 21.2 161 MICHIGAN 47.5 45 22.4 OVER 18.5 20.7 162 IOWA -6 43 -1.5 30.5 28.1 24.0 163 ARIZONA ST -2.5 57 32.4 27.9 UNDER 37.0 OVER164 UCLA 62 51 2.0 28.5 26.7 36.2 165 COLORADO ST 57.5 37 20.7 20.9 18.0 UNDER166 UTAH ST -7.5 43 -10.0 37.1 UST 33.6 UST 31.9 UST 167 USC -22 53 36.8 28.7 38.2 168 COLORADO 53.5 28 22.5 16.2 20.5 COL 18.5 169 TEXAS A&M 71 56 33.4 31.7 UNDER 39.1 OVER170 LSU -4.5 56 -3.5 37.0 34.5 43.9 171 MISSISSIPPI ST -2 43 32.4 MST 28.1 MST 25.8 172 ARKANSAS 51.5 36 4.0 19.1 19.5 27.8 173 OREGON -20.5 66 38.1 UNDER 33.5 UNDER 50.0 OVER174 ARIZONA 67 44 18.0 21.4 25.6 ARI 25.7 175 UTEP 49 13 18.4 OVER 20.3 UTEP 20.0 OVER176 TULANE -16.5 26 -15.3 35.5 31.5 34.3 177 CALIFORNIA 56.5 27 8.8 11.6 CAL 17.6 OVER178 STANFORD -31.5 57 -34.0 46.8 STA 36.7 UNDER 48.7 179 TX-SAN ANTONIO 48.5 31 18.4 19.0 23.4 180 NORTH TEXAS -8.5 36 -9.5 32.8 NT 28.4 29.4 181 BYU -1 49 28.6 28.4 29.0 182 NOTRE DAME 54 47 -1.0 25.2 24.7 28.5 183 BAYLOR -10 68 43.6 BAY 35.2 UNDER 46.8 OVER184 OKLAHOMA ST 78 56 7.0 27.6 UNDER 30.6 OKST 37.0 185 MIDDLE TENN ST -23 31 41.6 37.4 OVER 32.7 186 SOUTHERN MISS 54.5 7 21.5 15.6 22.2 SM 19.6 SM 187 GEORGIA ST 57 12 15.0 19.2 GST 20.4 OVER188 ARKANSAS ST -23.5 30 -22.5 38.5 35.1 41.9 189 WASHINGTON -2 52 29.6 UNDER 24.3 UNDER 33.2 190 OREGON ST 64.5 45 3.0 26.9 28.5 OST 31.3 191 LA MONROE 56.5 25 24.4 26.4 27.5 OVER192 S ALABAMA -3.5 26 -3.5 31.6 31.6 35.7 SA 193 SMU -4 33 31.6 33.1 OVER 31.6 194 SOUTH FLORIDA 55 25 5.5 26.7 27.6 24.2 195 NEW MEXICO 65.5 23 20.6 NM 23.1 NM 26.4 NM196 FRESNO ST -31.5 45 -25.0 46.4 40.6 49.3 OVER 197 NEW MEXICO ST 55.5 12 14.6 21.2 NMST 14.7 UNDER198 FLA ATLANTIC -22 31 -21.0 40.6 33.2 35.5 199 TULSA -3 26 26.7 29.1 28.0 200 LOUISIANA TECH 54.5 21 2.5 25.7 27.0 23.5 201 OKLAHOMA 54.5 51 22.6 19.4 UNDER 25.3 OKL202 KANSAS ST -3.5 50 -3.3 28.6 23.4 23.1 UNDER 203 MISSOURI -2.5 57 32.2 MIZ 24.8 27.3 204 OLE MISS 57 51 3.5 24.6 28.0 MIS 29.6 205 UTAH 53.5 45 29.0 25.5 34.9 UTAH206 WASHINGTON ST -1 38 2.5 26.8 26.6 29.4 OVER 207 BOISE ST -6.5 46 35.0 BST 26.9 UNDER 37.2 BST208 SAN DIEGO ST 58 33 10.0 19.3 24.5 25.1 301 W MICHIGAN 61 15 15.9 WMU 18.2 WMU 16.4 OVER302 N ILLINOIS -33 42 -31.5 43.3 42.9 49.3

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For every issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming college football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

NOVEMBER 20, 2013(105) Northern Ilinois at (106) ToledoRoad underdogs have covered the last two meetings in this annual series. Last year’s 31-24 Huskies home win stayed under a total of 69.5 -- the exact same number as in 2011, when a wild one at Toledo ended in a 63-60 Northern Illinois victory. The Huskies also laid 65 on the Rockets in a 2010 home win and cover.

NOVEMBER 21, 2013(109) Rutgers at (110) Central FloridaThe only time these new American Conference teams have met came in the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl, when Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights put a 45-24 beating on George O’Leary’s Knights as 3-point favorites. Rutgers is 5-4 SU/3-6 ATS after absorbing a blowout loss to Cincinnati. Both teams are playing on short rest after Saturday games.

(111) RIce at (112) Alabama-BirminghamThis series resumes after a two-year break. Home teams have covered all four meetings dating back to 2005. The last game at UAB (2009) was a 44-24 Blazers cover as 6-point favorites. The Owls won the last game (2010) in Houston, 28-23 as 3-point underdogs. Both teams are playing on short rest after Saturday games.

(113) UNLV at (114) Air ForceIt’s been all home teams lately in this annual series -- eight consecutive covers dating back to 2005. The Runnin’ Rebels travel again to the 6,000-plus-feet altitude of Colorado Springs, where they have lost the last two meetings by the exact same score -- 45-17 -- as 17- and 24-point underdogs. Six of the last seven finished over the total.

NOVEMBER 22, 2013(115) Navy at (116) San Jose StateThis will be the third consecutive meeting for these schools on opposite coasts. The Spartans get to stay home for this one, and will be seeking their third cover in a row after winning 12-0 as 1’-point road favorites last year and 27-

24 as 6’-point home dogs in 2011. Both games finished under totals of 61.5 and 61.

NOVEMBER 23, 2013(117) Nebraska at (118) Penn StateThis will be the fifth meeting of these traditional powerhouses, and third in a row since the Nittany Lions went B1G. Surprisingly, the last two meetings have ended in ATS pushes -- Nebraska 32-23 as 9-point home favorites last year, and 17-14 as 3-point road favorites in 2011. Three of the previous four meetings finished under the total.

(119) Illinois at (120) PurdueHome teams have covered the last three meetings in this series. The Boilermakers are on 4-0 SU/3-0-1 ATS runs in Lafayette, including a 21-14 upset as 3-point home dogs in the last meeting there (2011). Purdue won last year’s game 20-17 in a non-cover in Champaign. Three of the last four games finished under the total.

(121) Pittsburgh at (122) SyracuseThe Orangemen won a 14-13 nail-biter last year, but didn’t cover as 2-point favorites. That marked the Panthers’ fourth straight ATS win in this series, and they had won seven in a row SU prior to last year. The 2012 meeting stayed well under a total that inflated to 60 after seven consecutive meetings with it stuck in the 40s.

(123) Connecticut at (124) TempleIt’s been all Owls in this series, as they have covered seven consecutive meetings since 2001. They did so as underdogs each of the last five meetings, including a 17-14 road upset last year, and a 30-16 upset in the last game in Philadelphia (2010). The last four games have stayed under totals of 41, 48, 39 and 52.5.

(125) Indiana at (126) Ohio StateLast year’s game soared past a 64 total all the way to triple-digits -- a 52-49 Buckeye win but non-cover as 19’-point road favorites. The Hoosiers have covered the last two meetings -- including in Columbus in 2011 -- but haven’t won SU in 10 games since 2001. Ohio State covered six consecutive times as favorites 2003-2010.

(127) Michigan State at (128) NorthwesternIt’s a relatively short trip from East Lansing to the north side of Chicago, and road teams have taken advantage, covering six in a row, and 11 of 12 meetings dating back to 2000. The Spartans will be trying to avenge a 23-20 Wildcats upset as 7-point road dogs last year. Three of the last four games finished under the total.

(129) East Carolina at (130) North Carolina StThis will be the sixth meeting since 2004. Dogs have been barking, pulling four straight outright upsets -- 2010, 2009, 2007 and 2006. Three of those four games finished under the total. The Pirates are 8-2 SU/5-5 ATS after a blowout home win over UAB. The Wolfpack is on an 0-5-1 ATS skid after a loss at Boston College.

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(131) Idaho at (132) Florida StateThis will be the first meeting of these two diametrically opposite programs. The Vandals will come off a bye week at 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS. Their only SU win was a 26-24 home upset of Temple. In the nine losses, their defense allowed 49.2 points per game. The 10-0 Noles’ only ATS loss came in a 48-34 win at Boston College.

(133) Marshall at (134) Florida InternationalThis is the first meeting since the Panthers moved to Conference USA this season. The only previous match-up was in the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl, when the Thundering Herd pulled a 20-10 upset as 4-point underdogs. That game stayed well under a total of 48. Marshall will be playing on eight days rest after a Thursday-night game.

(135) Kentucky at (136) GeorgiaThe Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, but have won only one of those games SU -- a 34-27 upset as 9’-point road underdogs in 2008. Kentucky kept the last two meetings close as underdogs of 26 points in 2012 (29-24) and 30’ points in 2011 (19-10). Both of those games stayed under the totals.

(137) Kansas at (138) Iowa StateRoad teams are on a 4-0 run in this annual series. Underdogs had covered three in a row until last year’s match-up, when the Cyclones couldn’t handle a monstrous 45-point spread in a 51-23 win in Lawrence. The next-highest spread in this series as -27 for the Jayhawks in 2007, and they covered it in a 45-7 home romp.

(139) Duke at (140) Wake ForestThe Dukies have controlled this series of late, covering five of the last seven dating back to 2006. Three of those came at Wake, the exception being a 54-48 Deacons win in a 2010 shootout that almost doubled a total of 52’. The totals number hasn’t adjusted up enough yet, as five of the last six games have finished over.

(141) Boston College at (142) MarylandThese teams have met every year since 2005. The Eagles won and covered the last two meetings, but barely so in 2012, winning 20-17 as 2’-point home favorites. BC also has won the last two meetings in College Park, including a 28-17 upset as 6-point dogs in 2010. Three of the last four games stayed under the total.

(143) Wisconsin at (144) MinnesotaThere’s only one way to go in this series, as 12 of the 13 meetings since 2000 have finished over the total. The exception came in 2011, when the number jumped to 64, and the Badgers won 42-13 as 30-point road favorites. Underdogs were on a 5-0 ATS run until last year -- a 38-13 Wisconsin win as 17’-point home favorites.

(145) Virginia at (146) Miami, Fla.Underdogs are on an 8-1 ATS run in this series, including the last three. Last year’s wild 41-40

Cavs victory as 2-point home favorites soared way over a total of 54. The Cavs also sprung a huge 28-21 upset as 13’-point road underdogs in the last game in Miami (2011). Three of the last four games finished over the total.

(147) Cincinnati at (148) HoustonThis will be the first meetings of these new AAC rivals since 2002. Home teams covered the last three (2002, 2001, 2000). The Bearcats are 8-2 SU/5-5 ATS after blowing out Rutgers. The Cougars slipped to 7-3 SU with a loss at Louisville, but are 9-1 ATS. The lone slipup came on Halloween in a 35-23 win over South Florida.

(149) Memphis at (150) LouisvilleThis will be the first meeting since 2010, and the seventh since 2001. The Cards flew to a 56-0 rout as 16-point home favorites in the last game, topping a total of 51 all by themselves. Five of the six previous meetings finished over. The Cards are 9-1 SU but only 3-6-1 ATS after a win over Houston last week.

(151) Vanderbilt at (152) TennesseeUnders have been the way to go lately in this rivalry series, as they are on an 6-1 run. The exception came in the last game in Knoxville (2011), a 27-21 Vols win that barely topped a total of 46. Home teams won and covered the last two games, but visitors were on a 6-0 ATS run from 2005-2010.

(153) Massachusetts at (154) Central MichiganLast year’s meeting was the first in this series. The Chippewas doubled up on the Minutemen, 42-21 as 10’-point road favorites, and the game sailed over a total of 55’. It’s been a long year for UMass -- 1-9 SU, including four losses in a row. Their only win came Oct. 12 over Miami, O. CMU is 4-6 SU/5-5 ATS.

(155) Bowling Green at (156) Eastern MichiganThis will be the ninth meeting of these MAC rivals since 2000. Three of the last four have gone under the total. The exception was the last game in Ypsilanti (2007), a 39-32 Falcons win in a game with a 58 total. Road teams had covered four in a row until last year, when the Falcons won 24-3 as 14-point favorites.

(157) Hawaii at (158) WyomingThis is the first meeting of these schools since the Rainbow Warriors joined the Mountain West after a long run in the WAC. Norm Chow’s team travels to Laramie still winless (0-10) after a home loss to San Diego State, but is 5-5 ATS. The Cowboys are 4-6 SU/4-6 after getting blown off the blue turf in Boise last week.

(159) Western Kentucky at (160) Texas StateThis will be the first meeting of these teams. Western Kentucky will be coming off a bye week at 6-4 SU/4-6 ATS, but only 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in their last four games. The lone win in that stretch was 44-28 at Georgia State. Texas State (6-4 SU/5-5 ATS) will be home for the first time in four weeks.

(161) Michigan at (162) IowaWhen the game is in Iowa City, there’s only

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one way to go, as underdogs have covered the last five times. Two of those five were outright upsets by the Hawkeyes. Another was an Iowa loss/non-cover, and the other two were Wolverine covers as road dogs. Three of the last four games finished over the total.

(163) Arizona State at (164) UCLAThe last three meetings have finished over the total -- two of those dramatically so: UCLA 45-43 (59’) in 2012 and ASU 55-34 (48’) in 2010. Both games were in Tempe. The Bruins are on an 8-2 ATS run dating back to 2003, with Sun Devils covers coming in 2008 and 2010. Home teams had covered five in a row until last year.

(165) Colorado State at (166) Utah StateThis will be the third meeting of these MWC teams, but first since the Aggies moved from the WAC. Road teams covered both previous meetings -- Utah State 31-19 as 11’-point road favorites last year, and the Rams in a 35-34 road upset as 12’-point underdogs in 2011. The Aggies are coming off a bye at 6-4 SU/ATS.

(167) USC at (168) Colorado This will be the fifth meeting since 2000, and third since the Buffaloes’ move to the Pac 12. The Trojans have covered three in a row, all decisively: 50-6 as 39-point favorites last year, 42-17 as 20-point favorites in 2011, and a stunning 40-3 road upset as 2’-point dogs in 2002. The 2011-12 games had the same total: 57’.

(169) Texas A&M at (170) LSUThe Tigers beat Johnny Football and Co. 24-19 for a road cover as 3’-point favorites last year in the first SEC meeting between these schools. The game stayed under a 52 total. They also met in the 2007 Cotton Bowl, when LSU rolled 41-27 as 1-point favorites. The Aggies will be off a bye at 8-2 SU, but only 4-6 ATS.

(171) Mississippi State at (172) ArkansasIt’s all over in this annual series -- as in six consecutive games finishing over the total. Despite that trend, the line has barely budged in the last four years -- 57’, 54’, 54’ and 55 in 2012, when MSU won 45-14 as 5-point home favorites. That made it four in a row ATS for the favorites, including three double-digit covers.

(173) Oregon at (174) ArizonaThe Ducks have cruised to easy covers in the last two meetings, including last year’s 49-0 rout as 20-point home favorites. They also won 56-31 as 15’-point favorites in the last meeting in Tucson (2010). Last year’s game stayed far under an inflated total of 70’, but the previous four finished over totals in the 60-65 range.

(175) UTEP at (176) TulaneRoad dogs have covered in the last three meetings in this series. The Green Wave are on a 5-1 ATS run, but the exception was a stunning 44-7 UTEP win as 1-point road dogs in the last game at Tulane (2011). The Miners (2-9 SU/ATS) beat FIU 33-10 last week after being outscored 21-143 in their previous three games.

(177) California at (178) StanfordConsidering the close proximity of these two Bay Area campuses, it’s not too shocking that ‘road’ teams are on a 4-0 ATS run in this annual series. Stanford has won the last four SU, including a 21-3 road win as only 1-point favorites last year. Cal has covered four of the last five meetings in Palo Alto.

(179) Texas-San Antonio at (180) North TexasThis will be the first meeting between these teams. The Mean Green will be coming off a bye at 7-3 SU/8-2 ATS and on a 5-0 ATS run since losing at Tulane on Oct. 5. This will be their third consecutive home game, and last home game of the season. UTSA also is off a bye week at 5-5 SU/ATS.

(181) Brigham Young at (182) Notre DameThis will be the second consecutive meeting, and fifth since 2003. The Cougars covered as 12-point underdogs in a 17-14 loss at Notre Dame, where three of the previous four games have been played. The Irish covered in a big 49-23 win in 2005 as 18’-point favorites. Notre Dame (7-3 SU/3-7 ATS) will be off a bye.

(183) Baylor at (184) Oklahoma StateThe Cowboys were on a 6-0 ATS run until last year, when the Bears won 41-34 as 4-point home dogs. That game stayed under a sky-high total of 87, but the 2011 meeting in Stillwater exceeded an 82 total -- 59-24 Cowboys. The 2010 game, also in Stillwater, was similar -- 55-28 Cowboys to top a 72’ total.

(185) Middle Tennessee State at (186) Southern MissThe only previous meeting came in the 2009 New Orleans Bowl, when Middle Tennessee sprung a 42-32 upset as 3’-point underdogs. The game went over a 61’ total. Middle Tennessee will be off a bye at 6-4 SU/4-6 ATS. It’s been a long year for Southern Miss (0-10 SU/1-9 ATS), who has allowed 49.6 points per game in their last five.

(187) Georgia State at (188) Arkansas StateThis will be the first meeting between these teams. Arkansas State is 6-4 SU/4-6 ATS after a win/cover over Texas State. This will be their final home game before a season-finale game at Western Kentucky next week. Georgia State remains winless (0-10), and has lost seven times by double digits. But they are 7-3 ATS.

(189) Washington at (190) Oregon StateUnderdogs have covered the last three meetings, including the Huskies’ 20-17 home upset in 2012. That broke an 8-0 Beavers’ ATS run from 2004-2011, including the last three games played in Corvallis. Last year’s game also broke a run of three consecutive overs. The Huskies will play with an extra day of rest after a Friday night loss at UCLA.

(191) Louisiana-Monroe at (192) South AlabamaLouisiana-Monroe won 38-24 in last year’s initial meeting, but couldn’t cover a big 22’-point spread in a game that went over a total of

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54. ULM will be coming off a bye week at 5-5 SU/4-6 ATS. They were beaten decisively -- 42-14 -- by Arkansas State in their last game. The Jaguars are 3-5SU/5-3 ATS after getting blown out at Navy.

(193) Southern Methodist at (194) South FloridaThis is the first meeting between these AAC also-rans. The Mustangs are 4-5 SU/ATS, but 3-1 SU in their last four games, and coming off consecutive ATS wins against Cincinnati and Connecticut. The Bulls are 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS coming off a loss to Memphis. This will be their last home game before trips to Central Florida and Rutgers.

(195) New Mexico at (196) Fresno StateIn the first meeting since Fresno State moved to the Mountain West, they rolled 49-32 as 15-point favorites in Albuquerque last year. The game sailed well over a total of 55. The Spartans will be at home this time, and will be coming off a bye week still undefeated at 9-0, but with a 2-6-1 ATS mark.

(197) New Mexico State at (198) Florida AtlanticThe only previous meeting of these two programs came back in 2004, when the Aggies rolled to a 35-7 road upset as 6’-point underdogs. The game stayed under a total of 48’.It’s been a long year for the Aggies, who will be coming off a bye week at 1-9 SU/3-6 ATS. The Owls are only 4-6 SU, but 8-2 ATS after a 41-7 road rout at Southern Miss

(199) Tulsa at (200) Louisiana TechThis will be the first meeting for these new Conference USA West division rivals since 2004, when Louisiana Tech won 38-21 as 6-point favorites in a neutral site game. It’s been a dismal year for the Golden Hurricane program, as they sit 2-8 SU and ATS after a 45-34 home loss to Marshall in a Thursday night game.

(201) Oklahoma at (202) Kansas StateRoad teams have covered the last four meetings dating back to 2008. Three of those were outright upsets, including the Wildcats’ 24-19 win last year in Norman as 15’-point underdogs. That game stayed under a total of 56’, breaking a 4-0 run of games finishing over. K-State was on a 5-0 ATS run until last week. (203) Missouri at (204) MississippiThese teams have met only twice in 2006-07. The Tigers won and covered both times -- 38-25 as 6-point road favorites, and 34-7 as 10-point home favorites. Mizzu is off a bye week at 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS. The lone SU loss came to South Carolina by a field goal in 2OTs, and the ATS losses were by 1 and 1/2 point.

(205) Utah at (206) Washington StateThis will be the third consecutive meeting since the Utes joined the Pac 12, and fourth since 2000. Utah rolled to a 49-6 victory as 10-point home favorites last year, and won 30-27 as 4-point road favorites in 2011. Both games went over the same total (49). Utah is off back-to-back covers against Arizona State and Oregon.

(207) Boise State at (208) San Diego StateThis will be the Aztecs’ only home game in a four-week span, sandwiched between back-to-back trips to San Jose and Honolulu, and a season finale in Vegas. They are 6-4 SU/5-4-1 ATS. The Broncos are 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS after a home rout of Wyoming; the SU losses coming in their three biggest games -- Washington, Fresno, BYU.

NOVEMBER 26, 2013(301) Western Michigan at (302) Northern IlinoisThere’s only one way to go here: In 13 meetings since 2000, Northern Illinois is 10-2-1 ATS. The push came in 2010 -- a 28-21 Huskies win in Kalamazoo. The last Broncos cover came in 2006 -- a 16-14 home upset as 3-point dogs. Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU/7-3 ATS, while Western Michigan is 1-10 SU/3-8 ATS.

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After last week’s article on stats in college football, we got several inquiries asking us to dig deeper into the results that we found, in the process perhaps finding even better ways to take advantage of what we uncovered regarding the key statistical categories that were performing best. As we try to tell our readers in our welcome letter each week, we do listen to your feedback, and your inquiries piqued the curiosity of some of our in-house handicappers as well, so we dug into the database to look closer at the Yards Per Rush and Yards Per Point statistics this season.

What we were looking to find out is how teams with edges in our key stat categories were performing on a game-by-game basis. From last week’s article, we knew already that teams that had generated big season long numbers in these stats were doing very well against the spread and vice versa, but how were they doing when given benchmark edges against their opponent, or at home/on the road, or as favorites or underdogs. Hoping to uncover some golden nuggets to use for the rest of this season, we compiled our game log through Saturday’s games and broke down the results.

OFFENSIVE YARDS PER RUSH EDGE (YPR)We know from last week that teams ranking in the Top 12 in the country in yards per rush attempt were highly successful against the spread. It turns out that in looking at it from a game-by-game basis, teams gaining more yards per rush attempt than their opponent are 216-191 ATS (53.1%) since week 5. We used week 5 as the starting point for our study since it is about this point in any season where a team has started to define itself. Now 53.1% isn’t a significantly profitable record, but it is a good start using the most basic of handicapping techniques.

These are the records for teams with a YPR edge on a week-to-week basis. As you can see, this past weekend was a bit rough for our better rushing clubs, mostly those playing on the road, as oddsmakers seemed to catch up and overinflate the prices on the teams. Prior to that, YPR edge teams were on quite a run. We’ll see how it goes the rest of the season.

Wk 5: 20-26 ATS (43.5%)Wk 6: 36-19 ATS (65.5%)Wk 7: 20-31 ATS (39.2%)

Wk 8: 20-29 ATS (40.8%)Wk 9: 37-16 ATS (69.8%)Wk 10: 30-20 ATS (60.0%)Wk 11: 31-22 ATS (58.5%)Wk 12: 22-28 ATS (44.0%)

When broken down by the degree of edge a team has in the matchup, you can see below that the 2.0 yards per rush edge is a nice benchmark for handicapping purposes. Teams going into a game averaging better than 2.0 yards per rush than their opponent have covered the spread at a 64.4% clip since week 5. No amount less than that even comes close to matching that amount of success.

YPR Margin>2.0 YPR: 38-21 ATS (64.4%)1.50-1.99: 23-23 ATS (50.0%)1.00-1.49: 38-41 ATS (48.1%)0-0.99: 117-106 ATS (52.5%)

In terms of teams playing with an offensive YPR edge and playing as underdogs, we had hoped for more telling results, but the records below show there has been little advantage in playing this angle.

Line Range YPR MarginHome Dogs w/ Edge: 26-23 ATS (53.1%)Road Dogs w/ Edge: 48-48 ATS (50.0%)

OFFENSIVE YARDS PER POINT EDGE (YPPT)We also know from last week that teams ranking in the Top 12 in the country in offensive yards per point were faring very well against the spread. In looking at these teams on a game-by-game basis, it turns out those gaining fewer yards per point than their opponent were 224-183 ATS (55%) since week 5, a slight improvement from our YPR group. Starting from a success rate of 55% can certainly improve a bettor’s bottom line, so let’s look at the week by week numbers to see if we can’t uncover any further edges:

Wk 5: 27-19 ATS (58.7%)Wk 6: 32-23 ATS (58.2%)Wk 7: 20-31 ATS (39.2%)Wk 8: 32-17 ATS (65.3%)Wk 9: 29-24 ATS (54.7%)Wk 10: 28-22 ATS (56.0%)Wk 11: 34-19 ATS (64.2%)Wk 12: 22-28 ATS (44.0%)

There have been two bad weeks out of eight for teams with an offensive yards per point edge, week 7 and this past week. This is one trend to keep an eye on as we head down the stretch. In digging even deeper, we see below that there has been little variability when it comes to the degree of margin a team enjoys, as all four ranges have produced profit. Ironically, in this case, the largest edges have produced the least amount of success, a sign that oddsmakers are on point when it comes to recognizing mismatches here.

OffYPPT Margin>6.0: 34-31 ATS (52.3%)4.0-5.99: 36-29 ATS (55.4%)

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2.0-3.99: 63-55 ATS (53.4%)0-1.99: 91-68 ATS (57.2%)

While worth a look, our studies also uncover that searching for underdogs with edges in a matchup in offensive YPPT have not yielded any significant improvement on our overall records:

Line Range OffYPPT MarginHome Dogs w/ Edge: 20-19 ATS (51.3%)Road Dogs w/ Edge: 44-35 ATS (55.7%)

DEFENSIVE YARDS PER POINT EDGE (YPPT)The third category we found to be successful from last week’s article was Defensive Yards Per Point. Thus we conducted the same studies on this statistic for the games since week 5. In looking at these edge teams on a game-by-game basis, it turns out those allowing more yards per point than their opponent, or those forcing opposing offenses to work harder for points, were 220-187 ATS (54.1%) since week 5, better than our rushing stats but a slight decline from offensive yards per point. Again though, just being able to simply hit 54.1% using a simple but key statistic is a nice weapon for a bettor.

Below are the week-by-week records for teams with a defensive YPPT edge. In only one of the eight weeks did these teams fail to reach .500 ATS, showing consistency and overall improvement as the season has worn on. Hence, this is a stat you might want to take a look at before locking down your action for week 13.


The records below show how the verying degree of edge have affected ATS records. These numbers show our most definitive trends so far, as teams with little edge, or too much of an edge have been accurately accounted for by oddsmakers.

DefYPPT Margin>6.0: 28-27 ATS (50.9%)4.0-5.99: 40-24 ATS (62.5%)2.0-3.99: 73-47 ATS (60.8%)0-1.99: 79-89 ATS (47.0%)

As it turns out, home dogs with a defensive YPPT edge have produced fairly well in the last eight weeks, but the sample size has been fairly small.

Line Range DefYPPT MarginHome Dogs w/ Edge: 20-15 ATS (57.1%)Road Dogs w/ Edge: 42-41 ATS (50.6%)

EDGES IN ALL THREE CATEGORIESWith the relative overall success of the individual categories, one would surmise that teams having edges in all three of our key statistical categories would be potent. While better, it is only a slight improvement, as these teams have gone 112-88 ATS since week 5, good for 56%. Here are the week-by-week records:


EDGES IN BOTH OFFENSIVE CATEGORIESTeams with edges in both YPR and YPPT on the offensive side of the ball in a matchup have combined to go 152-120, a 55.9% win rate. That number represents just a slight decline from the three category results. Below are the week-by-week performance records, which have been much more variable than anything we have seen thus far:


The three week run in week 9 through week 11 produced a record of 72-39 ATS (64.8%), or 29.1 units of profit. Hopefully we haven’t see the cap on this theory’s success for 2013.

VARIOUS SYSTEMS TO USE FOR WEEK 13Our study has produced four reasonably potent systems that we can apply to week 13 games. Take a look:

• Double-digit home favorites gaining more than 2.0 yards per rush than their opponent are 17-7 ATS since week 5. Plays for week 13: Florida St, Wyoming

• Road teams gaining more than 6.0 yards per rush attempt are 16-5 ATS since week 6. Plays for week 13: N Illinois, Wisconsin, Oregon, Baylor, New Mexico

• Home teams gaining more than 6.0 yards per rush attempt are 13-2 ATS since week 9. Plays for week 13: Toledo, Ohio St

• Home favorites allowing more than 18.5 yards per point on defense are 15-6 ATS since week 9. Plays for week 13: Florida St, Houston, Louisville, North Texas, Oklahoma St

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(105) N ILLINOIS (-2.5 | 72.5) [SU:10-0 | ATS:7-3] AT (106) TOLEDO [SU:7-3 | ATS:7-3]

NOVEMBER 20, 2013 8:00 PM on ESPN2 - GLASS BOWL STADIUM (TOLEDO, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF N ILLINOIS (20) 44.6 26 47-304 [6.5] 30-20-244 [8.0] 12.3 25.2 22 38-149 [3.9] 40-21-277 [7.0] 16.9 +9 +19.4 TOLEDO 35.0 22 39-247 [6.3] 30-18-209 [7.0] 13.0 27.7 23 42-160 [3.8] 31-18-255 [8.3] 15.0 +8 +7.3

Northern Illinois passed their first major test in the MAC West by beating Ball State 48-27, but this one could be more severe, playing at Toledo who has five won straight (4-1 ATS) and overcome a number of injuries. The Huskies are 10-0 for the first time since joining D-1 football in 1969 and still has aspiration of another BCS appearance led by QB Jordan Lynch and the nation’s No. 6 scoring offense (44.6 PPG). NIU is 9-2 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in consecutive games. The Rockets will not be intimated and are scoring 46 PPG at home and are 6-2 and 5-2 ATS against the Huskies at the Glass Bowl.

GAME TRENDS• N ILLINOIS is 12-2-1 ATS(L2Y) - VS MAC• TOLEDO is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)• TOLEDO is 10-2 UNDER(L2Y) - OU line of 60 or more

(109) RUTGERS [SU:5-4 | ATS:3-5-1] AT (110) UCF (-17 | 57.5) [SU:8-1 | ATS:6-3]NOVEMBER 21, 2013 7:30 PM on ESPN - BRIGHT HOUSE NETWORKS STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RUTGERS 29.3 20 37-143 [3.9] 34-20-253 [7.4] 13.5 31.4 21 32-105 [3.3] 42-27-329 [7.8] 13.8 -6 -2.1 UCF (17) 35.2 21 36-170 [4.8] 31-21-285 [9.2] 12.9 20.6 20 32-130 [4.1] 35-21-240 [6.8] 18.0 +9 +14.6

Central Florida is finding out what it is like facing the pressure of trying to hunt down a BCS berth trailing at one-win Temple almost the entire game before executing a miraculous recovery to win 39-36 as 17.5-point favorites. The Knights needed every one of their 657 yards of offense and cannot have such a letdown again, three games away from an AAC title and BCS bid. After starting 4-1, Rutgers is reeling in dropping three of four conference games and committing 13 turnovers is not helping. Central Florida is 27-14 ATS in home league games the last 10 years and 9-2 ATS after playing their last contest on the road since last season.

GAME TRENDS• RUTGERS is 8-1-1 ATS(L10G) - AS underdog of more than 14 points• UCF is 2-8 ATS(L5Y) as FAV - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)• UCF is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) as FAV - Conference games

(111) RICE (-18.5 | 63.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:7-3] AT (112) UAB [SU:2-8 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 21, 2013 7:30 PM on FOX1 - LEGION FIELD (BIRMINGHAM, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RICE 31.3 22 50-242 [4.8] 26-13-185 [7.0] 13.6 22.7 17 40-175 [4.3] 28-14-199 [7.2] 16.5 +9 +8.6 UAB 25.4 20 38-186 [4.9] 29-15-210 [7.3] 15.6 42.6 24 38-223 [5.8] 30-20-281 [9.5] 11.8 -4 -17.2

GAME TRENDS• RICE is 22-11-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per point(CS)

(113) UNLV [SU:5-5 | ATS:6-4] AT (114) AIR FORCE (-1.5 | 61) [SU:2-8 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 21, 2013 9:30 PM on ESPNU - FALCON STADIUM (COLORADO SPRINGS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UNLV 28.9 24 39-172 [4.4] 39-24-250 [6.3] 14.6 33.8 23 43-235 [5.5] 33-17-225 [6.8] 13.6 +4 -4.9 AIR FORCE 26.2 20 54-277 [5.1] 14-8-106 [7.5] 14.6 38.1 27 48-244 [5.0] 27-20-234 [8.5] 12.5 -3 -11.9

GAME TRENDS• AIR FORCE is 12-24 ATS(L3Y) - All Games


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(115) NAVY [SU:6-4 | ATS:7-3] AT (116) SAN JOSE ST (-2 | 57) [SU:5-5 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2013 9:30 PM on ESPN2 - SPARTAN STADIUM (SAN JOSE, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NAVY 32.0 24 59-311 [5.3] 13-6-104 [8.3] 13.0 25.2 22 40-192 [4.8] 30-21-210 [7.1] 16.0 +7 +6.8 SAN JOSE ST 27.5 23 35-133 [3.8] 39-24-325 [8.3] 16.7 31.1 24 41-202 [4.9] 35-21-237 [6.8] 14.1 -2 -3.6

This is an ESPN football bettor’s special, because the only people watching this contest beside friends and families of the competing teams are gamblers wanting their Friday night football fix. Navy is 6-4 and coach Ken Niumatalolo will have no trouble getting the Midshipmen ready to play, having lost the past two years against San Jose State. In the past two meetings, the Spartans have held Navy below the amount of plays they typically run and had the speed on the edges to disrupt the option offense. Off their 42-14 drubbing of South Alabama, the Middies are 4-13 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. San Jose State is 13-6 ATS as single digit favorite since 2003.

GAME TRENDS• NAVY is 11-0 ATS(S2000) on ROAD as DOG - In November• SAN JOSE ST is 5-10 ATS(L5Y) at HOME as FAV - All Games• NAVY is 10-2 UNDER(L5Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per

attempt(CS)

(117) NEBRASKA [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-5] AT (118) PENN ST (-1.5 | 50) [SU:6-4 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on BTN - BEAVER STADIUM (UNIVERSITY PARK, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEBRASKA 35.1 24 46-240 [5.2] 29-17-200 [6.9] 12.5 24.6 21 41-161 [4.0] 30-16-213 [7.1] 15.2 -8 +10.5 PENN ST 29.3 24 43-179 [4.2] 35-20-255 [7.4] 14.8 26.7 19 37-144 [3.9] 33-20-232 [7.0] 14.1 -6 +2.6

GAME TRENDS• PENN ST is 7-17-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)

(119) ILLINOIS (-7 | 56.5) [SU:3-7 | ATS:5-5] AT (120) PURDUE [SU:1-9 | ATS:2-8]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM on BTN - ROSS-ADE STADIUM (WEST LAFAYETTE, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ILLINOIS 30.2 24 34-136 [4.0] 38-25-289 [7.6] 14.1 37.2 24 43-260 [6.0] 28-18-234 [8.3] 13.3 -6 -7.0 PURDUE 12.7 15 27-65 [2.4] 35-18-194 [5.6] 20.4 38.0 23 44-230 [5.3] 29-18-215 [7.5] 11.7 -7 -25.3

GAME TRENDS• ILLINOIS is 6-16 ATS(L3Y) - VS BIG10

(121) PITTSBURGH (-1 | 49.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6] AT (122) SYRACUSE [SU:5-5 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:30 PM - CARRIER DOME (SYRACUSE, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 26.4 18 35-114 [3.2] 29-18-234 [7.9] 13.2 26.9 19 37-160 [4.3] 30-17-211 [7.1] 13.8 +3 -0.5 SYRACUSE 22.4 18 42-197 [4.7] 30-18-174 [5.7] 16.6 26.5 19 37-146 [3.9] 34-20-238 [7.1] 14.5 -1 -4.1

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 22-7 UNDER(L5Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS)

(123) CONNECTICUT [SU:0-9 | ATS:2-7] AT (124) TEMPLE (-8 | 50.5) [SU:1-9 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CONNECTICUT 16.2 17 32-84 [2.6] 37-19-214 [5.8] 18.4 35.0 20 39-155 [4.0] 30-18-248 [8.1] 11.5 -8 -18.8TEMPLE 23.7 20 34-149 [4.4] 34-19-239 [7.0] 16.4 30.9 26 39-192 [5.0] 38-25-330 [8.7] 16.9 -5 -7.2

GAME TRENDS• TEMPLE is 15-4 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.5 yards per

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(125) INDIANA [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6] AT (126) OHIO ST (-34 | 81) [SU:10-0 | ATS:6-3-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on ABC - OHIO STADIUM (COLUMBUS, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANA 39.1 23 36-190 [5.2] 38-22-307 [8.1] 12.7 38.8 27 47-251 [5.3] 35-21-284 [8.1] 13.8 -4 +0.3 OHIO ST (4) 49.4 27 46-315 [6.8] 29-20-222 [7.7] 10.9 18.8 18 32-93 [2.9] 35-21-230 [6.5] 17.2 +10 +30.6

GAME TRENDS• INDIANA is 23-8 OVER(L3Y) - All Games

(127) MICHIGAN ST (-7 | 41.5) [SU:9-1 | ATS:6-3-1] AT (128) NORTHWESTERN [SU:4-6 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM on ESPN - RYAN FIELD (EVANSTON, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MICHIGAN ST (13) 30.9 21 43-188 [4.4] 31-18-189 [6.1] 12.2 13.2 13 27-57 [2.1] 34-16-171 [5.1] 17.3 +11 +17.7 NORTHWESTERN 27.1 20 43-184 [4.3] 29-18-206 [7.1] 14.4 26.1 24 41-165 [4.0] 38-22-244 [6.4] 15.7 +5 +1.0

Michigan State can wrap up the Legends Divisions with a victory and start thinking about unbeaten Ohio State. The Spartans defense was not as stout as usual at Nebraska; nonetheless, they were the better football team in all phases and tries to move to 10-1. Michigan State is now +11 in turnover margin and QB Conner Cook is making the offense go. Sparty is 13-3 ATS as road favorite the past seven years. Northwestern football this season is like the old Ray Charles song – If I didn’t have bad luck, I would have no luck at all. Other than the Wisconsin contest, the Wildcats could have won any of their last six setbacks and are 1-7 ATS since Week 2.

GAME TRENDS• MICHIGAN ST is 13-5-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - VS BIG10• NORTHWESTERN is 4-11 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)• MICHIGAN ST is 16-5-1 UNDER(L2Y) - All Games

(129) EAST CAROLINA (-6.5 | 55) [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (130) NC STATE [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-6-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:30 PM - CARTER-FINLEY STADIUM (RALEIGH, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF EAST CAROLINA 41.5 27 35-122 [3.5] 44-31-341 [7.8] 11.2 21.5 19 34-101 [3.0] 40-23-236 [5.9] 15.7 +6 +20.0 NC STATE 22.5 20 43-167 [3.9] 35-20-238 [6.8] 18.0 27.9 20 35-182 [5.2] 33-19-210 [6.4] 14.1 -1 -5.4

GAME TRENDS• EAST CAROLINA is 17-7-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(CS)

(131) IDAHO [SU:1-9 | ATS:3-7] AT (132) FLORIDA ST (-57 | 69) [SU:10-0 | ATS:8-2]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on ESPNU - DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM (TALLAHASSE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF IDAHO 18.8 19 43-142 [3.3] 34-18-223 [6.6] 19.4 45.7 26 38-203 [5.3] 38-26-329 [8.6] 11.6 -7 -26.9FLORIDA ST (2) 52.7 26 36-202 [5.6] 30-21-322 [10.6] 9.9 11.1 16 39-129 [3.3] 29-15-143 [5.0] 24.5 +14 +41.6

GAME TRENDS• FLORIDA ST is 9-1 OVER(L2Y) - AT DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM

(133) MARSHALL (-32.5 | 55) [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (134) FLA INTERNATIONAL [SU:1-9 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 6:00 PM - FIU STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MARSHALL 42.8 26 41-210 [5.1] 37-23-296 [7.9] 11.8 22.2 20 44-156 [3.6] 32-16-202 [6.3] 16.1 +1 +20.6 FLA INTERNATIONAL 10.1 13 37-78 [2.1] 24-13-146 [6.2] 22.2 37.5 21 39-202 [5.1] 26-18-215 [8.2] 11.1 -8 -27.4

GAME TRENDS• MARSHALL is 0-10 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - as double digit favorite






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(135) KENTUCKY [SU:2-8 | ATS:4-6] AT (136) GEORGIA (-24 | 62.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:1-8-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on ESPNU - SANFORD STADIUM (ATHENS, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KENTUCKY 21.5 18 37-157 [4.3] 29-17-192 [6.7] 16.2 28.8 20 40-192 [4.8] 27-18-219 [8.1] 14.3 0 -7.3 GEORGIA 35.8 24 37-174 [4.8] 34-22-309 [9.0] 13.5 30.2 20 39-146 [3.7] 32-19-241 [7.4] 12.8 -8 +5.6

GAME TRENDS• KENTUCKY is 3-12 ATS(L2Y) - AS double digit underdog

(137) KANSAS [SU:3-7 | ATS:4-6] AT (138) IOWA ST (-6 | 45.5) [SU:1-9 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 8:00 PM on FOX1 - JACK TRICE STADIUM (AMES, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS 17.4 14 42-159 [3.8] 26-13-144 [5.5] 17.4 31.7 23 40-188 [4.7] 36-21-244 [6.7] 13.6 +5 -14.3IOWA ST 21.2 18 39-128 [3.3] 36-19-200 [5.6] 15.5 38.8 23 42-229 [5.4] 35-21-242 [7.0] 12.1 -3 -17.6

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS is 7-16-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - All Games

(139) DUKE (-4.5 | 49.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:8-2] AT (140) WAKE FOREST [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM on ESPN2 - BB&T FIELD (WINSTON-SALEM, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DUKE (25) 34.9 21 39-185 [4.7] 32-20-238 [7.5] 12.1 23.0 21 42-169 [4.0] 33-19-235 [7.2] 17.6 +1 +11.9 WAKE FOREST 17.8 17 32-91 [2.8] 35-19-208 [5.9] 16.8 23.8 19 38-146 [3.8] 35-21-215 [6.2] 15.2 -2 -6.0

In a season full of surprises, seeing Duke atop the ACC Coastal Division with a chance to be champions is a real stunner. The Blue Devils mauled Miami 48-30 and are riding a six-game winning streak. The pressure picks up with a trip to Wake Forest and the last time these teams were involved in a meaningful late season matchup was, never. Give head coach David Cutcliffe all the credit for taking the woebegone program to remarkable heights. Duke is 8-2 ATS this season and will be a road favorite for just the third time since 2000. After a midseason turnaround, Wake Forest has dropped three straight, but is 20-12-1 as home underdog since 2001.

GAME TRENDS• DUKE is 17-10-1 ATS(L3Y) - VS Non-ranked team• WAKE FOREST is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME as DOG - In November• DUKE is 9-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)

(141) BOSTON COLLEGE [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4] AT (142) MARYLAND (-1 | 53.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - BYRD STADIUM (COLLEGE PARK, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOSTON COLLEGE 28.1 17 40-218 [5.4] 21-13-152 [7.4] 13.2 27.4 21 38-154 [4.0] 32-22-277 [8.5] 15.7 +6 +0.7 MARYLAND 25.3 19 36-145 [4.1] 33-18-260 [7.8] 16.0 24.8 19 39-142 [3.6] 35-21-227 [6.6] 14.9 -7 +0.5

GAME TRENDS• MARYLAND is 8-14 ATS(L3Y) - VS ACC





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(143) WISCONSIN (-16.5 | 50) [SU:8-2 | ATS:9-0-1] AT (144) MINNESOTA [SU:8-2 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on ESPN - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WISCONSIN (16) 38.5 22 44-308 [7.0] 25-16-198 [8.0] 13.1 14.0 16 32-99 [3.1] 35-18-189 [5.5] 20.6 +4 +24.5 MINNESOTA 30.7 19 47-218 [4.7] 19-11-149 [7.9] 12.0 23.4 19 33-147 [4.4] 33-20-234 [7.1] 16.3 +6 +7.3

The Badgers are the second-best team in the Big Ten and rolling over the opposition like a 16-pound bowling ball against plastic pins. Wisconsin is a perfect 10-0 ATS or 9-0-1 ATS this season and has held on to the Paul Bunyan axe in this rivalry since 2004. If you like the way Stanford plays, think of the Badgers as a faster version. Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS versus teams averaging 150 or fewer yards passing. Minnesota is 8-2 (7-3 ATS) and have not been to this lofty status in a decade, which speaks volumes about coach Jerry Kill and the staff he put together. The Golden Gophers are arguably the fourth-best team in the conference. The OVER is 12-3 since 1992.

GAME TRENDS• WISCONSIN is 18-8 ATS(L3Y) - as favorite of more than 7 points• MINNESOTA is 1-8-1 ATS(L5Y) as DOG - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9

yards per attempt(CS)• WISCONSIN is 28-12 OVER(L5Y) - VS BIG10

(145) VIRGINIA [SU:2-8 | ATS:3-6-1] AT (146) MIAMI FL (-20.5 | 58) [SU:7-3 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM on ESPNU - SUN LIFE STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VIRGINIA 20.5 21 42-153 [3.7] 42-24-213 [5.0] 17.9 33.8 19 40-183 [4.5] 33-17-234 [7.1] 12.3 -4 -13.3MIAMI FL 34.5 20 35-180 [5.2] 30-18-278 [9.2] 13.3 25.5 21 41-172 [4.2] 31-18-228 [7.4] 15.7 +2 +9.0

GAME TRENDS• VIRGINIA is 11-21 ATS(L5Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)

(147) CINCINNATI [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5] AT (148) HOUSTON (-3 | 58) [SU:7-3 | ATS:9-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM on ESPNEWS - BBVA COMPASS STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CINCINNATI 35.2 25 40-172 [4.3] 34-24-306 [9.0] 13.6 18.6 17 30-97 [3.2] 33-19-207 [6.3] 16.3 -4 +16.6 HOUSTON 35.6 24 35-151 [4.3] 39-23-292 [7.6] 12.4 21.8 23 41-147 [3.5] 37-23-270 [7.3] 19.1 +22 +13.8

Having built up a number of critics this season, Cincinnati ran roughshod over Rutgers 52-17 to stay in the AAC race. The Bearcats almost got the break they needed, but Central Florida pulled out the victory somehow. Cincy has to win out and hope UCF loses twice to win the AAC, which is a long shot. As we said on these pages previously, the Bearcats loss to South Florida would haunt them. After Cincinnati offensive outburst, they are 10-22 ATS after gaining 6.75 or more yards a play. Houston’s young football team lost, but held up well against UCF and Louisville and is 9-1 ATS on the season. A victory would validate a fine year for the Cougars.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 24-11-1 ATS(L3Y) - All Games• CINCINNATI is 3-8 ATS(L3Y) - After blowout win• HOUSTON is 8-2 OVER(L10G) as FAV - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more

than 7 points per game(CS)

(149) MEMPHIS [SU:3-6 | ATS:5-4] AT (150) LOUISVILLE (-24.5 | 43) [SU:9-1 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM - PAPA JOHNS CARDINAL STADIUM (LOUISVILLE, KY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MEMPHIS 20.7 18 38-155 [4.0] 29-17-176 [6.0] 16.0 20.6 19 34-110 [3.2] 35-20-227 [6.5] 16.4 -4 +0.1 LOUISVILLE (21) 36.6 23 34-150 [4.4] 32-23-316 [9.8] 12.7 10.8 13 30-78 [2.6] 28-14-161 [5.7] 22.1 +13 +25.8

GAME TRENDS• MEMPHIS is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - In November





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(151) VANDERBILT [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5] AT (152) TENNESSEE (-3 | 53.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - NEYLAND STADIUM (KNOXVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VANDERBILT 31.3 19 38-137 [3.7] 29-19-234 [8.1] 11.9 26.5 21 36-148 [4.1] 35-22-224 [6.5] 14.0 +9 +4.8 TENNESSEE 24.9 18 37-186 [5.0] 30-17-173 [5.7] 14.4 32.0 22 41-226 [5.5] 28-15-208 [7.3] 13.6 +1 -7.1

GAME TRENDS• VANDERBILT is 15-6 ATS(L3Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)

(153) MASSACHUSETTS [SU:1-9 | ATS:5-5] AT (154) C MICHIGAN (-10 | 46.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 1:00 PM on ESPN3 - KELLY/SHORTS STADIUM (MOUNT PLEASANT, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MASSACHUSETTS 11.7 16 36-122 [3.4] 30-16-169 [5.6] 24.9 30.8 22 41-230 [5.6] 26-16-214 [8.3] 14.4 -2 -19.1C MICHIGAN 20.0 18 33-123 [3.7] 31-17-218 [7.0] 17.1 33.3 22 43-209 [4.9] 28-18-225 [8.0] 13.0 -10 -13.3

GAME TRENDS• C MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) as FAV - Against poor teams with 20%+ winning pct(CS)

(155) BOWLING GREEN (-24 | 56.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:7-3] AT (156) E MICHIGAN [SU:2-8 | ATS:2-8]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 1:00 PM on ESPN3 - RYNEARSON STADIUM (YPSILANTI, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOWLING GREEN 33.1 24 41-196 [4.8] 29-19-256 [8.8] 13.7 15.1 17 34-154 [4.6] 30-18-172 [5.8] 21.6 +7 +18.0 E MICHIGAN 20.9 20 38-164 [4.3] 29-16-198 [6.9] 17.3 44.2 24 41-250 [6.1] 27-18-267 [9.8] 11.7 -9 -23.3

GAME TRENDS• BOWLING GREEN is 15-2-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29

PPG(CS)

(157) HAWAII [SU:0-10 | ATS:5-5] AT (158) WYOMING (-7 | 61.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 2:00 PM - WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM (LARAMIE, WY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HAWAII 22.4 20 33-96 [2.9] 44-23-279 [6.4] 16.7 36.4 24 47-201 [4.3] 35-21-272 [7.8] 13.0 -10 -14.0WYOMING 30.9 24 37-196 [5.3] 40-25-273 [6.9] 15.2 34.9 24 48-236 [4.9] 32-22-249 [7.9] 13.9 -3 -4.0

GAME TRENDS• WYOMING is 25-14-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS)

(159) W KENTUCKY (-4 | 50.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:4-6] AT (160) TEXAS ST [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on LHN - BOBCAT STADIUM (SAN MARCOS, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W KENTUCKY 29.8 24 39-189 [4.8] 34-22-273 [8.1] 15.5 25.7 17 37-171 [4.7] 25-15-189 [7.4] 14.0 -13 +4.1 TEXAS ST 25.2 16 40-181 [4.5] 24-14-156 [6.5] 13.4 24.8 19 34-128 [3.7] 40-23-254 [6.4] 15.4 +8 +0.4

GAME TRENDS• W KENTUCKY is 14-5 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - VS SUNBELT

(161) MICHIGAN [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-5] AT (162) IOWA (-6 | 47.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM on BTN - KINNICK STADIUM (IOWA CITY, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MICHIGAN 34.3 21 42-135 [3.2] 28-17-245 [8.6] 11.1 25.2 19 35-111 [3.2] 36-19-235 [6.6] 13.7 +1 +9.1 IOWA 26.6 21 43-194 [4.5] 30-17-204 [6.8] 15.0 18.7 16 35-130 [3.7] 31-18-189 [6.1] 17.1 +1 +7.9

GAME TRENDS• IOWA is 13-6 OVER(L3Y) - As favorite





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(163) ARIZONA ST (-2.5 | 62) [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5] AT (164) UCLA [SU:8-2 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on FOX - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA ST (19) 42.3 26 41-183 [4.4] 39-24-293 [7.5] 11.3 24.4 16 33-121 [3.7] 33-18-218 [6.6] 13.9 +10 +17.9 UCLA (14) 37.0 24 45-202 [4.5] 31-21-256 [8.3] 12.4 23.7 23 43-168 [3.9] 34-21-225 [6.5] 16.6 +7 +13.3

Historically, these two football programs have often left their fans yearning for more. Not this season as each is 8-2 and controls their destiny to be Pac-12 South champions. Arizona State is thought to be the stronger team which is why they opened as road favorites, yet history finds them 4-13 ATS versus opponents averaging 37 or more PPG. Since losing at Stanford and Oregon, UCLA has put together three clutch wins and believes its defense can slow the Sun Devils and engineer the home upset. The Bruins will have to value the possession of the pigskin as they are 12-25 ATS against teams with +1 turnover margin. UCLA has won and covered the past two meetings as the underdog.

GAME TRENDS• UCLA is 11-3 ATS(L2Y) - OU line of 60 or more• ARIZONA ST is 5-14-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)• UCLA is 23-8 UNDER(L5Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)

(165) COLORADO ST [SU:6-5 | ATS:8-3] AT (166) UTAH ST (-7.5 | 57.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on CBSS - ROMNEY STADIUM (LOGAN, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF COLORADO ST 36.5 22 40-216 [5.4] 32-20-256 [7.9] 12.9 31.5 22 37-152 [4.1] 36-23-298 [8.3] 14.3 +3 +5.0 UTAH ST 35.9 24 41-198 [4.8] 37-23-268 [7.3] 13.0 19.4 19 40-127 [3.2] 33-17-221 [6.7] 17.9 +6 +16.5

Utah State is still holding on to the belief Boise State could slip and with a pair of wins, they could play for the Mountain West title. The Aggies have won three straight and close the season in Logan and have to get by a Colorado State club which is averaging 43.8 PPG in their last seven tries. Utah State is the superior defense club with 12.1 differential edge (19.4 vs. 21.5 PPG allowed) and will have to keep that edge if they are to rise to 18-5 ATS the past two years. The Rams will have to score and hopefully generate a couple turnovers to stay in the game, to improve upon 8-3 ATS mark in 2013.

GAME TRENDS• UTAH ST is 17-5-1 ATS(L2Y) - All Games• COLORADO ST is 4-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)• UTAH ST is 24-12 UNDER(L5Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS)

(167) USC (-22 | 53.5) [SU:8-3 | ATS:6-5] AT (168) COLORADO [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on PAC12 - FOLSOM FIELD (BOULDER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF USC (23) 28.2 20 37-171 [4.6] 27-17-223 [8.1] 14.0 19.4 18 32-122 [3.9] 36-21-217 [6.0] 17.5 +7 +8.8 COLORADO 25.9 19 36-128 [3.5] 33-19-253 [7.6] 14.7 38.8 23 42-210 [5.0] 35-21-267 [7.5] 12.3 -3 -12.9

GAME TRENDSCOLORADO is 6-19 ATS(L3Y) - AS double digit underdog





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(169) TEXAS A&M [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5] AT (170) LSU (-4.5 | 71) [SU:7-3 | ATS:4-5-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on CBS - TIGER STADIUM (BATON ROUGE, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS A&M (9) 49.2 29 38-199 [5.2] 37-27-379 [10.1] 11.7 30.9 23 40-211 [5.3] 34-19-244 [7.1] 14.7 +2 +18.3 LSU (18) 37.9 22 38-185 [4.9] 26-17-276 [10.7] 12.2 23.5 20 38-153 [4.0] 30-17-201 [6.7] 15.1 -4 +14.4

At the beginning of the season, this would not have been thought of as a confrontation for the third-best team in the SEC West, yet this is precisely what we have. The good news for television viewers, the entertainment value should be very high with a Johnny Manziel and Zack Mettenberger duel. What kind of mental state will LSU be in after being thumped by Alabama? The Tigers are 11-30 ATS at home the last month of the season. Two more victories and Texas A&M could be looking at a Capital One or Cotton Bowl berth, but two losses (at Missouri next) could mean Gator Bowl or worse. The Aggies are 7-0 (4-3 ATS) on the road with Manziel.

GAME TRENDS• LSU is 13-5-1 ATS(L3Y) - VS AP top 25• TEXAS A&M is 9-19-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• TEXAS A&M is 24-15 OVER(L5Y) - Conference games

(171) MISSISSIPPI ST (-1.5 | NL) [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-5] AT (172) ARKANSAS [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:21 PM on ESPN3 - WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM (LITTLE ROCK, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MISSISSIPPI ST 27.5 23 40-194 [4.8] 33-19-239 [7.3] 15.7 26.5 19 33-147 [4.4] 31-19-227 [7.3] 14.1 +4 +1.0 ARKANSAS 20.4 19 40-210 [5.3] 25-12-149 [5.8] 17.6 31.4 21 38-172 [4.5] 29-19-228 [7.8] 12.7 -8 -11.0

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS is 9-1 OVER(L3Y) as DOG - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7

yards per carry(CS)

(173) OREGON (-20.5 | 67) [SU:9-1 | ATS:7-3] AT (174) ARIZONA [SU:6-4 | ATS:4-5-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on ABC - ARIZONA STADIUM (TUCSON, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OREGON (5) 50.9 27 44-286 [6.5] 30-19-294 [9.7] 11.4 18.2 20 41-144 [3.5] 39-21-211 [5.5] 19.5 +12 +32.7 ARIZONA 33.0 23 48-264 [5.5] 31-18-189 [6.1] 13.7 22.2 21 39-163 [4.1] 37-21-224 [6.1] 17.4 +4 +10.8

Oregon was given a reprieve and has to win their next two games to host the Pac-12 championship. The Ducks played their first half against Utah like they were dwelling on the loss to Stanford before awakening. Oregon might not play for the BCS title, but the Rose Bowl is an awfully good second prize if they can reach it. Over the years, Tucson has not always been the Ducks favorite spot, but they are 10-1 ATS as road faves the past three years. With an ugly loss to Washington State, Arizona might finish this three-game homestand with all losses. Figuring to get better against a team like Oregon is wishful thinking, especially with a recent 0-6 spread mark in November.

GAME TRENDS• OREGON is 10-1 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - as favorite of more than 7 points• ARIZONA is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) - In November• OREGON is 10-3 OVER(L2Y) - as favorite of more than 20 points

(175) UTEP [SU:2-8 | ATS:2-8] AT (176) TULANE (-16.5 | 49) [SU:6-4 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTEP 24.1 19 46-199 [4.3] 24-14-165 [6.9] 15.1 37.9 21 39-239 [6.1] 22-13-212 [9.6] 11.9 -3 -13.8TULANE 24.3 17 37-123 [3.3] 32-17-181 [5.6] 12.5 23.4 20 37-126 [3.4] 35-20-244 [6.9] 15.8 +8 +0.9

GAME TRENDS• TULANE is 8-2 ATS(L10G) at HOME - All Games





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(177) CALIFORNIA [SU:1-10 | ATS:2-9] AT (178) STANFORD (-31.5 | 56) [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 4:00 PM on FOX1 - STANFORD STADIUM (STANFORD, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CALIFORNIA 23.9 25 36-129 [3.6] 53-31-331 [6.2] 19.2 44.4 25 39-189 [4.9] 36-23-334 [9.2] 11.8 -15 -20.5STANFORD (10) 30.4 19 42-206 [4.9] 22-13-178 [8.0] 12.6 19.5 21 30-92 [3.0] 42-27-254 [6.0] 17.7 0 +10.9

GAME TRENDS• CALIFORNIA is 4-14 ATS(L3Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)

(179) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO [SU:5-5 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (180) NORTH TEXAS (-8.5 | 48.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:8-2]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM - APOGEE STADIUM (DENTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEX-SAN ANTONIO 25.6 22 34-172 [5.0] 34-21-235 [6.9] 15.9 29.3 22 38-157 [4.1] 33-19-242 [7.4] 13.6 -5 -3.7 NORTH TEXAS 32.3 21 43-173 [4.1] 30-20-233 [7.8] 12.6 18.6 17 33-122 [3.7] 33-20-238 [7.3] 19.4 +10 +13.7

North Texas is trying to hold off Rice in the West Division of Conference USA, but will not have an easy task despite being on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll. UT-San Antonio has reeled off a trio of conference wins to reach .500. North Texas is the better offensive (32.3 vs. 25.6 PPG) and defensive team (18.6 vs. 29.3), yet after forcing just two turnovers in seven games, the Roadrunners have been ball-hungry with 10 more in their past three outings. The Mean Green is a growing favorite and they are 5-0 SU and ATS at Apogee Stadium this year. The important number for North Texas is 28 points, being 7-0 ATS when they reach that figure.

GAME TRENDS• NORTH TEXAS is 11-4 ATS(L5Y) - More than 6 days rest• NORTH TEXAS is 11-3 UNDER(L2Y) - Conference games• NORTH TEXAS is 8-1 UNDER(L2Y) - As favorite

(181) BYU (-1 | 54) [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4] AT (182) NOTRE DAME [SU:7-3 | ATS:3-6-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on NBC - NOTRE DAME STADIUM (SOUTH BEND, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BYU 33.5 25 52-265 [5.1] 34-18-238 [6.9] 15.0 21.0 19 40-155 [3.9] 40-22-222 [5.5] 18.0 +2 +12.5 NOTRE DAME 28.2 19 33-148 [4.6] 32-17-256 [8.0] 14.3 23.5 22 40-160 [4.0] 32-20-209 [6.4] 15.7 -3 +4.7

It’s Notre Dame’s final home game and a loss against BYU would set up a precipitous fall with contest at Stanford still on the docket. The fact is the Fighting Irish have only been average on offense in scoring 28.2 PPG (69th nationally) and it was much weaker than presumed at linebacker and in the secondary. Notre Dame is 6-16 ATS at South Bend after a road loss. BYU has several quality victories against teams which have been contending in conference races and would like another, setting up the chance for their sixth 10+ win season in eight years. The Cougars have the size to compete and are 9-1 ATS as underdogs the past three years.

GAME TRENDS• BYU is 13-5 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• NOTRE DAME is 9-18-4 ATS(L5Y) - AT NOTRE DAME STADIUM• BYU is 20-6 UNDER(L5Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per

play(CS)





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(183) BAYLOR (-10 | 78) [SU:9-0 | ATS:8-1] AT (184) OKLAHOMA ST [SU:9-1 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 8:00 PM on ABC - BOONE PICKENS STADIUM (STILLWATER, OK)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BAYLOR (3) 61.2 30 50-299 [6.0] 31-20-386 [12.5] 11.2 17.4 17 43-132 [3.1] 33-15-190 [5.7] 18.5 +9 +43.8 OKLAHOMA ST (11) 40.4 22 38-171 [4.5] 36-21-258 [7.1] 10.6 19.0 21 38-134 [3.5] 42-23-239 [5.8] 19.6 +13 +21.4

These are the two best teams in the Big 12 and while the offense receives all the accolades, the reason both have achieved this status in 2013 is because of the defenses. However, nobody wants to talk defense, when a squad like Baylor is averaging 61.3 PPG. The Bears might have the best vertical passing game in the history of college football with QB Bryce Petty at the controls. Baylor is 25-9 ATS as favorites under coach Art Briles. Nevertheless, Oklahoma State has won six straight (5-1 ATS) and is forcing better than three turnovers in this stretch. This might be a different Baylor team but the Cowboys are 9-0 and 8-1 ATS as Stillwater hosts against the Bears.

GAME TRENDS• BAYLOR is 26-9 ATS(L3Y) - All Games• OKLAHOMA ST is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - As underdog• BAYLOR is 25-7 OVER(L3Y) - All Games

(185) MIDDLE TENN ST (-23 | 54.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:4-5-1] AT (186) SOUTHERN MISS [SU:0-10 | ATS:1-9]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM - ROBERTS STADIUM (HATTIESBURG, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIDDLE TENN ST 28.1 21 41-193 [4.8] 32-19-199 [6.3] 14.0 27.9 22 46-197 [4.3] 31-20-221 [7.1] 15.0 +9 +0.2 SOUTHERN MISS 12.2 16 27-69 [2.5] 40-20-225 [5.6] 24.1 43.4 24 48-231 [4.8] 27-18-207 [7.7] 10.1 -21 -31.2

GAME TRENDS• SOUTHERN MISS is 12-5 OVER(L2Y) - As underdog

(187) GEORGIA ST [SU:0-10 | ATS:7-3] AT (188) ARKANSAS ST (-23.5 | 57) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:00 PM on ESPN3 - LIBERTY BANK STADIUM (JONESBORO, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA ST 17.5 18 30-102 [3.4] 37-19-247 [6.7] 19.9 36.7 24 44-229 [5.2] 30-19-248 [8.4] 13.0 -3 -19.2ARKANSAS ST 29.0 22 44-212 [4.8] 29-20-219 [7.4] 14.9 25.3 20 39-187 [4.8] 33-18-231 [7.1] 16.5 +2 +3.7

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS ST is 16-5 ATS(L3Y) - VS SUNBELT

(189) WASHINGTON (-2.5 | 64) [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5] AT (190) OREGON ST [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 10:30 PM on ESPN2 - RESER STADIUM (CORVALLIS, OR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WASHINGTON 36.6 25 46-216 [4.7] 34-22-291 [8.5] 13.9 23.7 20 42-177 [4.2] 35-20-208 [5.9] 16.2 +3 +12.9 OREGON ST 35.2 25 26-69 [2.7] 49-33-396 [8.0] 13.2 28.0 20 34-150 [4.4] 34-20-237 [7.0] 13.8 +7 +7.2

GAME TRENDS• OREGON ST is 23-13 OVER(L5Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)

(191) LA MONROE [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6] AT (192) S ALABAMA (-3.5 | 56.5) [SU:3-6 | ATS:5-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - LADD-PEEBLES STADIUM (MOBILE, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA MONROE 22.2 18 32-128 [4.0] 41-22-237 [5.7] 16.4 29.8 20 39-189 [4.8] 34-18-234 [6.9] 14.2 -8 -7.6 S ALABAMA 27.7 22 38-158 [4.2] 35-20-264 [7.6] 15.2 29.2 22 39-195 [5.0] 31-19-225 [7.2] 14.4 0 -1.5

GAME TRENDS• LA MONROE is 16-8 ATS(L5Y) - Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(CS)






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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(193) SMU (-4 | 55) [SU:4-5 | ATS:3-5-1] AT (194) SOUTH FLORIDA [SU:2-7 | ATS:4-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SMU 32.4 25 27-101 [3.8] 54-36-380 [7.0] 14.8 38.1 24 40-159 [4.0] 37-24-284 [7.8] 11.6 -4 -5.7 SOUTH FLORIDA 14.8 14 31-104 [3.3] 29-13-159 [5.6] 17.8 30.3 19 37-153 [4.2] 28-17-212 [7.6] 12.0 -5 -15.5

GAME TRENDS• SOUTH FLORIDA is 4-14-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - AT RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM

(195) NEW MEXICO [SU:3-7 | ATS:5-5] AT (196) FRESNO ST (-31 | 65.5) [SU:9-0 | ATS:3-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 4:00 PM on ESPNEWS - BULLDOG STADIUM (FRESNO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW MEXICO 34.8 21 51-324 [6.3] 15-7-115 [7.8] 12.6 39.9 24 42-262 [6.3] 27-18-231 [8.5] 12.4 -1 -5.1 FRESNO ST (15) 44.3 30 35-163 [4.7] 53-37-386 [7.3] 12.4 26.9 20 40-155 [3.9] 38-22-261 [6.9] 15.5 +3 +17.4

GAME TRENDS• FRESNO ST is 11-0 ATS(L3Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)

(197) NEW MEXICO ST [SU:1-9 | ATS:3-6] AT (198) FLA ATLANTIC (-22 | 55.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:7-2-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:00 PM - FAU FOOTBALL STADIUM (BOCCA RATON, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW MEXICO ST 21.7 20 36-138 [3.8] 35-23-257 [7.3] 18.2 46.4 25 44-313 [7.1] 27-18-242 [8.9] 12.0 -5 -24.7FLA ATLANTIC 24.1 19 41-175 [4.2] 31-17-179 [5.8] 14.7 25.1 17 38-177 [4.7] 29-14-170 [5.9] 13.8 0 -1.0

GAME TRENDS• NEW MEXICO ST is 13-3 OVER(L2Y) - AS double digit underdog

(199) TULSA (-3 | 54.5) [SU:2-8 | ATS:2-8] AT (200) LOUISIANA TECH [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:00 PM on CBSS - JOE AILLET STADIUM (RUSTON, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULSA 21.9 20 39-161 [4.1] 37-18-206 [5.6] 16.8 35.1 22 43-188 [4.3] 34-20-240 [7.0] 12.2 -10 -13.2LOUISIANA TECH 20.6 20 35-174 [4.9] 37-21-213 [5.8] 18.8 26.1 22 46-190 [4.1] 31-17-216 [6.9] 15.6 -5 -5.5

GAME TRENDS• LOUISIANA TECH is 11-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser offensive teams averaging less than 5.0 yards

per play(CS)

(201) OKLAHOMA [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5] AT (202) KANSAS ST (-3.5 | 54.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 12:00 PM on FOX1 - BILL SNYDER STADIUM (MANHATTAN, KS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA (22) 30.8 21 44-236 [5.4] 28-16-188 [6.6] 13.8 20.1 18 34-144 [4.2] 31-17-183 [5.8] 16.3 +3 +10.7 KANSAS ST 33.9 20 41-193 [4.7] 24-15-214 [9.1] 12.0 23.3 19 35-137 [3.9] 36-22-235 [6.4] 16.0 -3 +10.6

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS ST is 14-3-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)


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(203) MISSOURI (-2.5 | 57) [SU:9-1 | ATS:8-2] AT (204) OLE MISS [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 7:45 PM on ESPN - VAUGHT HEMINGWAY STADIUM (OXFORD, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MISSOURI (8) 41.3 24 41-236 [5.7] 32-19-257 [8.1] 11.9 20.2 20 34-112 [3.3] 42-26-274 [6.5] 19.1 +14 +21.1 OLE MISS (24) 34.5 25 42-201 [4.8] 37-23-296 [8.1] 14.4 25.0 20 37-150 [4.1] 32-21-223 [7.0] 14.9 +2 +9.5

The Tigers mission is clear, win twice and they advance to SEC title game. This sounds simple until realizing they face an Ole Miss squad on four-game winning streak and is playing back to preseason expectations. Reports have Missouri returning to James Franklin at quarterback, but seeing he hasn’t played in five weeks, would coach Gary Pinkel pull him if he’s not sharp with what is on the line? Mizzou is 8-2 ATS this season. There is no shame in losing to Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M which Mississippi did in consecutive weeks. With a victory over LSU, a second signature win would prove coach Hugh Freeze (16-7 ATS at Oxford) has the Rebels marching in the right direction.

GAME TRENDS• MISSISSIPPI is 16-7 ATS(L2Y) - All Games• MISSOURI is 7-11 ATS(L5Y) - VS AP top 25• MISSISSIPPI is 17-10-1 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - All Games

(205) UTAH [SU:4-6 | ATS:6-4] AT (206) WASHINGTON ST (-1 | 53.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 3:30 PM on PAC12 - MARTIN STADIUM (PULLMAN, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTAH 28.9 19 39-164 [4.2] 31-17-225 [7.2] 13.5 27.0 20 40-143 [3.6] 33-20-245 [7.3] 14.4 -9 +1.9 WASHINGTON ST 29.2 23 18-57 [3.1] 58-36-360 [6.2] 14.3 31.1 22 41-187 [4.5] 34-22-261 [7.6] 14.4 -5 -1.9

GAME TRENDS• UTAH is 13-6 ATS(L5Y) - After conference su loss

(207) BOISE ST (-7 | 57) [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4] AT (208) SAN DIEGO ST [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2013 10:30 PM on CBSS - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOISE ST 38.9 26 45-215 [4.8] 36-26-277 [7.7] 12.6 23.4 23 44-157 [3.6] 37-24-263 [7.2] 17.9 0 +15.5 SAN DIEGO ST 28.5 21 39-177 [4.5] 35-20-262 [7.5] 15.4 31.2 21 36-137 [3.8] 39-24-264 [6.7] 12.9 -9 -2.7

Boise State is attempting to keep Utah State at bay, since the Broncos hold the tie-breaker in the Mountain Division of the MWC. However, Boise State cannot just show up and assume a win in SoCal against San Diego State, who after a brutal 0-3 start, is 6-1 (4-3 ATS), with a only loss 35-28 versus unbeaten Fresno State. Boise State walloped Wyoming 48-7 last yet has committed 10 turnovers in their past three contests, which to concern coach Chris Peterson. The Broncos are 33-12 ATS against passing teams averaging 250 or more yards a contest. The Aztecs won at Boise last year and are going after the rare double, yet are 13-26 ATS after a road conference triumph.

GAME TRENDS• BOISE ST is 14-3 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)• SAN DIEGO ST is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - Against strong teams outscoring opponents by more than 10

points per game(CS)• BOISE ST is 10-1 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - VS MWC

(301) W MICHIGAN [SU:1-10 | ATS:3-8] AT (302) N ILLINOIS (-33 | 61) [SU:10-0 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 26, 2013 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - HUSKIE STADIUM (DEKALB, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2013 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W MICHIGAN 17.5 18 32-118 [3.7] 37-18-215 [5.8] 19.0 35.6 22 46-234 [5.1] 26-15-181 [6.9] 11.7 -6 -18.1N ILLINOIS (20) 44.6 26 47-304 [6.5] 30-20-244 [8.0] 12.3 25.2 22 38-149 [3.9] 40-21-277 [7.0] 16.9 +9 +19.4

Game Trends:• N ILLINOIS is 20-9-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.35 yards per

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

40.0%ROI

40.0%ROI

42.1%ROI

40.9%ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

22.4%ROI

48.5%ROI

68.5%ROI

52.7%ROI

43.4%ROI

44.8%ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

43.2%ROI

40.3%ROI

(143) WISCONSIN AT (144) MINNESOTAWISCONSIN is 22-8 ATS(L5Y) as FAV - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per point(CS)( $1320 Profit with a 40.0% ROI )

(183) BAYLOR AT (184) OKLAHOMA STBAYLOR is 22-8 ATS(L3Y) - OU line of 60 or more( $1320 Profit with a 40.0% ROI )

(201) OKLAHOMA AT (202) KANSAS STKANSAS ST is 30-10-1 ATS(L5Y) - VS BIG12( $1900 Profit with a 42.1% ROI )

(125) INDIANA AT (126) OHIO STINDIANA is 27-9-2 OVER(L5Y) - VS BIG10( $1710 Profit with a 40.9% ROI )

(171) MISSISSIPPI ST AT (172) ARKANSASARKANSAS is 25-14 OVER(L5Y) - VS SEC( $960 Profit with a 22.4% ROI )

(157) HAWAII AT (158) WYOMINGHAWAII is 14-4 OVER(L5Y) - VS MWC( $960 Profit with a 48.5% ROI )

(167) USC AT (168) COLORADOCOLORADO is 2-15 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(CS)( $1280 Profit with a 68.5% ROI )

(151) VANDERBILT AT (152) TENNESSEETENNESSEE is 6-24 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per attempt(CS)( $1740 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(145) VIRGINIA AT (146) MIAMI FLVIRGINIA is 6-19-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per play(CS)( $1240 Profit with a 43.4% ROI )

(181) BYU AT (182) NOTRE DAMEBYU is 22-7 UNDER(L5Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(CS)( $1430 Profit with a 44.8% ROI )

(137) KANSAS AT (138) IOWA STIOWA ST is 18-6 UNDER(L5Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per point(CS)( $1140 Profit with a 43.2% ROI )

(155) BOWLING GREEN AT (156) E MICHIGANBOWLING GREEN is 23-8-1 UNDER(L3Y) - All Games( $1420 Profit with a 40.3% ROI )

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We have several key conference games with line moves this weekend and our picks were a remarkable 9-1-1 last week. Let’s review what those betting football are thinking this week.

CFB (47-40)(111) RICE at (112) UAB 7:30 ET FS1Rice is still in position to take C-USA West Division if North Texas were to slip up. To this point the Owls are the betting choice, having risen three points to -18 against UAB, who is 2-8 (3-7 ATS) this season. The Blazers have played better at home (2-1 ATS), but allow 5.8 yards per rush and Rice is 15th in the country in rushing. VIW Take – Lean with Rice

(123) CONNECTICUT at (124) TEMPLE 7:00 ET ESPN3With just one victory between them, these AAC teams have drawn more action than one might expect. Unquestionably, Temple’s near-miss upset of Central Florida has altered the Owls from -7 to -8.5. Both teams have poor defenses, but Temple has the edge because of their offense (23.7 vs. 16.2 PPG) and is 7-0 ATS in recent get-togethers. VIW Take – Temple covers

(125) INDIANA at (126) OHIO STATE 3:30 ET ESPN2This is a brutal spot for Indiana who needs two wins to be bowl eligible and is coming off a Wisconsin whipping 51-3. While the Hoosiers might score a few more points against the Ohio State defense, how the Big Ten’s worst defense will contain the Buckeyes is a 48 Hours mystery. Ohio State has gone from -31.5 to -33.5 and needs style points after falling to No. 4 in the BCS rankings. VIW Take – Ohio State covers

(161) MICHIGAN at (162) IOWA 12:00 ET BTNMichigan does not impress anyone and are up two points to +6 at Iowa City this Saturday. Since defeating Notre Dame, the Wolverines most impressive game has been against Minnesota and they are 1-11 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog. Nonetheless, this number does seem a touch high and we’ll call for a close contest. VIW Take – Michigan covers

(173) OREGON at (174) ARIZONA 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2One week after being totally bummed, Oregon is rejuvenated, knowing they are three wins away from a trip to the Rose Bowl. With Arizona having lost the first two contests of a three-game homestand, the Ducks have been quacked up from -18 to -20.5. Oregon is 11-1 ATS on the road since 2011. VIW Take – Oregon covers

(177) CALIFORNIA at (178) STANFORD 4:00 ET FS1From jubilation to heartbreak for Stanford, realizing their chances of being Pac-12

champions again is remote, along with a lesser bowl assignment likely. At least from one perspective, they have “The Game” with rival California to refocus and football bettors see them burying the Bears, taking them from -29 to -32. Keep in mind the Cardinal is 6-20 ATS after losing as a favorite. VIW Take – California covers

(185) MID. TENN. STATE at (186) SOUTHERN MISS 3:30 ET CSBASince winning the Conference USA title in 2011, Southern Miss has fallen faster than Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, with 20 consecutive losses (4-16 ATS) and is being beaten by a decisive 31.2 points a game this season. The Golden Eagles are not garnering any support this week, going from +20.5 to +23. Middle Tennessee State is 12-4 ATS as a road favorite. VIW Take – M.T.S. covers

NFL (24-19)(107) NEW ORLEANS at (108) ATLANTA 8:25 ET NFLNOn the topic of fall from grace, Atlanta hosted the NFC title game roughly 10 months ago and now they are among the worst teams in the NFL. Those making NFL picks are long past thinking the Falcons can generate any revival and taken these Birds from +7 to +8.5 as division home underdogs. Atlanta is 2-10 ATS playing against a team with a winning record the last three seasons. VIW Take – Lean with New Orleans

(209) TAMPA BAY at (210) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOXBreak up the Bucs after their first two triumphs of the season, allowing the hot seat to cool for head coach Greg Schiano. With Tampa Bay’s offense improving and Detroit sixth in points scored (26.5), the total is bulging like the veins in Tom Brady’s neck after Monday’s game from 45 to 48.5. The Bucs are on a 6-0 OVER streak and the Lions are 13-4 OVER as favorites. VIW Take – Play Over

(231) DENVER at (232) NEW ENGLAND 8:30 ET NBCWith a matchup of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, guess which way the total went for this upcoming conflict? That’s right, upward, with the total lifted two digits to 56. New England is 8-1 OVER versus offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards a game, while Denver is 13-3 OVER after scoring 25 points or more in two straight outings. Only the weather keeps this below the oddsmaker number. VIW Take – Play Over

(233) SAN FRANCISCO at (234) WASHINGTON 8:40 ET ESPNThe ‘mishap’ known as the Washington Redskins might be excited to be on Monday Night football, however, the wagering numbers are trending to the superior team. San Francisco was released at -3.5 and almost immediately went to -5. With the 49ers solid defense, San Fran is 6-0 ATS against opponents surrendering 24 or more points a game since last year. VIW Take – San Francisco covers

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weekly football tip sheet · secured the services of Steve Makinen once again to head the project....

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