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ISSUE 21nfl conference championships

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Four the second straight season, all four NFL divisional playoff round home teams advanced to the conference championship games. This past weekend’s games, while predictable, were at least entertaining to watch, particularly the Saturday night contest between Green Bay & Arizona, which featured a final regulation play Hail Mary pass by the Packers to force overtime. They wound up being the only road team to cover the

pointspread, with Pittsburgh pushing against Denver on the Vegas closing number, which finally settled at minus-7 on game day after a week filled with continuous injury updates. Interestingly though, while having not played as well as their fans might like last week, both the Cardinals and Broncos might be encouraged by the success level of championship weekend teams that won but failed to cover in the divisional round.

Lines were very active last week and bettors were pumping the money into their favorite establishments. That only figures to increase over the next few weeks as sportsbooks always offer a plethora of extra betting options for these last few high stakes games on the NFL calendar. Be sure to visit your favorite book and look what they have available before finalizing your action for the weekend. If you’re in the market for a new place to play at, be sure to check out the highly rated list of sponsors we have supporting Vegas Insider.

At this point, we are now down to the “Final Four” of the NFL playoff proceedings, and this year’s Super Bowl matchup will be decided this week on Championship Sunday. As such, this week’s entire Vegas Insider Football Weekly is devoted to handicapping the two conference championship games. From picks, stat matchups, strength ratings, and complete editorial analysis, we have nearly every angle covered. In the AFC, defending Super Bowl Champion New England is expected to grab a second straight conference crown, as the Patriots opened as 3-point favorites at Denver. In the NFC, the latter game on Sunday, the host Panthers opened at minus-3 vs. Arizona. In both games, the quarterback matchups will be center stage, nearly equally intriguing for differing reasons. As usual, our early lines feature will focus on the early moves for both the line and the total, and the impact it might have on the rest of the week and the eventual game results.

The Vegas Insider Football Weekly experts & Strength Ratings had a big week as a whole, going 6-2 ATS on Consensus Plays. Our Power Ratings, Forecaster, and VI Jason were also 6-2. Over the two weeks of the playoffs thus far, the Forecaster is now 11-5 ATS, good for 69%. Turn to the NFL picks page to see which sides and totals they are backing on Sunday. We would like to once again thank you for your support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. We will be having just one issue covering the big game, and that will be released in the week leading up to the game. That means we will be off next week, preparing material to cover many of the different wagering angles offered every year in the NFL’s biggest game, including line & total, player & team matchup props, and exotics.

Good luck on the Championship Sunday action!

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INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule .............................................................................. 1

Recent NFL Conference Championship Playoff Trends ................. 2

Recent NFL Conference Championship Game Logs ..................... 5

NFL Conference Championship Matchups ..................................... 6

Football Line Moves .......................................................................... 10

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For the last two weeks, we have compiled trends from the wildcard and divisional rounds of the NFL playoffs. The conference title games are next up, and the first and foremost thing that is noticeable when analyzing the recent conference championship games is that scoring is down, despite an inflation of posted totals. Six of the eight conference title tilts over the last four seasons have gone UNDER their posted numbers. That is the highest percentage of UNDER plays in any 4-year span in this round in the L20 years. In fact, this trend of UNDER’s actually reversed a major trend of OVER’s (15-4-1 prior 10 years). On totals averaging 47.6, games have produced 44.6 PPG. The two games on Sunday also have fairly high totals, so we will see if that trend continues. I can assure you however, that nowadays, teams don’t get to this point without strong defenses.

Another interesting point of note is that three of the last four conference championship winners were teams that won but failed to cover their pointspreads in the divisional round games. If that were to occur again this season, we would be looking at a Broncos-Cardinals Super Bowl matchup. However, there are other encouraging trends out there for fans of the other teams to buy into.

The matchups are certainly intriguing for this weekend, with top quarterbacks on display. We all know of the history between Peyton Manning (Broncos) and Tom Brady (Patriots), but the NFC matchup is just as interesting under center, as Carson Palmer (Cardinals) and Cam Newton (Panthers) are both frontrunners for the NFL’s MVP award. Using similar methodologies to that of the past two weeks, here are some of the notable trends and systems that have developed in recent conference championship game action.

General Conference Championship Playoff ATS Trends• The OUTRIGHT winner has covered the

pointspread in all but four of the L28 conference championship playoff games. The most recent team to not do that was Seattle, this past January, when it came from behind to beat Green Bay 28-22 in overtime as 8.5-point favorites.

• Hosts are on a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS run in conference championship play, reversing a trend that saw visitors go 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in the prior three seasons.

• There have been eight road favorites in the L21 years of the conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS. Most recently, San Francisco won in Atlanta in 2013, 28-24, as a 3.5-point favorite.

• Beware of large home favorites in the conference championship round, at least in terms of laying the points, as those closing as 7-point favorites or more are 9-5 SU but just 4-10 ATS since ‘99.

• Alternatively, home favorites in the -3 to -6.5 range have been highly successful at both winning and covering their respective pointspreads, with a record of 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS since ’05. Those games have also gone OVER the total at a 7-2-1 rate in that span.

• The last nine times that a home team has won & covered the pointspread in the conference title games, that game has also gone OVER the total at a 7-3 rate.

• In inter-divisional conference championship games of this playoff round, the favorites are on a 3-1 SU & ATS surge.

• Road teams are 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) in the L6 NFC title games.

• Of the teams in the AFC & NFC Championship contests this year, New England is making its fifth straight appearance and is 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in its L6 tries. The Broncos are making their third appearance in the L11 years, all at home, and are 1-1 SU & ATS in that span. Carolina was last at this level in 2006 and lost handily at Seattle, 34-14, while Arizona won at home in 2009 over Philadelphia.

Conference Championship Trends by Seed Number• #1-seeds have been the host teams in 33 of

the L46 conference championship games, and have gone 22-11 SU & 16-17 ATS in those games. #1 seeds have won the last four games.

• Only two teams that were not #1 or #2 seeds have hosted conference championship games in the L20 years, and both won outright and ATS. Indianapolis did so in the AFC in 2007 and Arizona followed that up two years later for the NFC.

• #2 seeds hosting conference championship games are just 2-6 SU & 2-5-1 ATS since ’97. Conversely, these same #2 teams are 10-6 ATS on the road in that span. Green Bay won ATS in 2015 at Seattle.

• Wildcard teams, or those seeded #5 or #6, have gone just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS dating back to ’96 in the conference title games, including just 1-5 SU & ATS the L7 seasons. There is actually a misconception of how successful these teams have been of late, when only Green Bay of 2011 was able to advance past this round to the Super Bowl. Recall that San Francisco fit this bill in 2014 and lost at Seattle.

• #4 seeds are on a run of 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in conference title game play since ’98, but Indianapolis was walloped 45-7 by New England a year ago.

RECENT NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF TRENDS


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Conference Championship Trends regarding Totals• Overall, since ’93, OVER the total is 26-19-1

in the conference championship playoff games. However, there has been some difference when you consider conference, as AFC games were 12-11 UNDER while the NFC contests were 15-7-1 OVER.

• Breaking down the totals for this weekend’s games based upon ranges, the last six conference title tilts since ’03 with totals more than 42 but less than 48 have gone OVER. Denver-New England would fit that bill. Five of the L7 games with extremely high totals, 48 or more, have gone UNDER the total. Fit the Panthers-Cardinals matchup into that trend.

Following the Line/Total MovesFor the last two weeks we have shown that sharp bettors have been in fact “sharp” when it comes to postseason games. For the conference championship round, that pattern continues. Following the line moves throughout the week heading up to the big games would have netted you a record of 11-4 ATS since ’05. Last year, bettors backed the Seahawks (ATS loss) and the AFC game didn’t move off the key minus-7 number. Early action for this week indicates that bettors are not favoring any side at presstime, as lines for both games have settled at 3. Recent history proves you should do the same. Still, be sure to follow the moves throughout the rest of the week up until kickoff.

Bettors have been red-hot with totals recently as well, going 8-3 when moving the totals in the L11 conference championship games. Early action finds bettors looking for an UNDER in the AFC game and an OVER in the NFC game on Sunday.

Stats generated in Conference championship Playoff Games• The conference championship playoff round

has demonstrated similar benchmarks to the wildcard round when it comes to the relationship between scoring points and winning. Like the wildcard round’s 20-point magic mark, the figure for the conference championships has been 21. Home teams that have scored 21 points or less are just 4-15 SU & 1-17-1 ATS since ‘93.

• Alternatively, those home teams that topped the 21-point mark were 24-3 SU & 20-7 ATS. If you recall, the benchmark for the divisional round was a little higher at 27 points.

• The magic point total for road teams in conference championship playoff action has proven to be 20 points, as they are 13-7 SU & 16-3-1 ATS when they reach that mark since ‘98. When scoring less than 20 points, the record of the road teams dropped dramatically to 2-18 SU & 5-15 ATS since ‘95.

• Teams that gained more first downs in their respective conference championship games are 9-3 SU & 7-5 ATS over the L6 years in those games but just 13-15 ATS since ’02.

• Teams that controlled the time of possession are on a 18-6 SU & 20-4 ATS run in the conference championship playoffs since ‘03.

• Conference championship playoff teams

that gained more yards rushing in those games are 17-7 SU & ATS over the L12 seasons. Strangely, at the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a conference championship playoff game are just 11-13 SU & ATS in that same span.

• Putting up big passing numbers in conference championship playoff games has also proven a key ingredient to success, since those teams are 16-10 SU & 18-8 ATS since ’02. Even more importantly, teams that gained more yards per pass attempt in a conference championship playoff game are 18-8 SU & ATS during that same stretch.

• Going back to ’03, teams that turn the ball over fewer times in a conference championship are on an impressive 21-2 ATS run. The current win streak stands at 8 games against the spread.

Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record Trends• Unlike the last two weeks, there has proven

to be only minimal differences when it comes to the success rates of conference championship teams based upon their regular season records, or the comparison between their record and their opponent’s. For instance, here are the records of home teams based broken up by regular season wins: Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season were 4-1 SU & 2-3 ATS, home teams with 12 or 13 regular season wins were 12-8 SU & 9-11 ATS, and those hosts that won 11 or fewer games were 2-1 SU & ATS.

• Road teams that won 12 or more games in the regular season were 2-7 SU but 5-4 ATS in their conference title games, road teams with 11 regular season wins were 4-8 SU & 6-6 ATS, and ironically, those visitors that won the fewest games, 10 or less, had the best outright mark at 4-3 SU & ATS.

• Home teams that won at least two more games during the regular season than their conference championship playoff opponent are 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS since ’02.

• When just one regular season win separated two conference championship playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS over the L7 seasons.

Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends• Teams that scored more points per game

during the regular season are on an 11-5 SU & 9-7 ATS run over the L8 conference championship playoff seasons. Carolina & New England hold these edges in 2016.

• The ability to run the football has been much-overrated when it comes to conference championship success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 9-19 SU & ATS since ’02. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush are just 3-11 SU & 4-10 ATS over the L7 seasons. Denver has large edges in these categories against New England, while Carolina’s edges over Arizona aren’t nearly as definitive.

• Passing yardage has meant much more than rushing yardage in terms of conference

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championship playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going 18-8 SU & 16-10 ATS over the L13 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams were a bit worse at 17-9 SU & 15-11 ATS. Both road teams held edges but lost outright a year ago. New England & Arizona own sizeable edges in both categories.

• Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to conference championship playoff success, going 15-9 SU & 13-11 ATS over the L12 seasons. The Patriots & Cardinals will try to extend this trend in 2016.

• The offensive yards per play statistic has also proven important, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are just 16-6 SU & 14-8 ATS over the L11 years on championship Sunday. Again, count the Patriots & Cardinals as the beneficiaries of this statistical trend. Arizona was the league’s top team in this statistic.

• Like the divisional round and unlike the wildcard round, offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 10-10 SU & 8-12 ATS in the conference championship playoff round since ’05.

• The offensive turnovers statistic provides the handicapper zero edge, since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are exactly 10-11 SU & 9-12 ATS since ’04 in conference championship games.

• Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a hot streak of 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in the L14 conference championship games. Count Arizona and New England as the teams hoping to continue this pattern this weekend.

• Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends

• Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 13-12 SU & ATS dating back to ‘03 in conference championship games, providing little edge to handicappers.

• Defensive rushing yards hasn’t meant anything significant when it comes to handicapping conference championship action, either has yards PER rush defense, as teams with an edge in that stat are 13-13 SU & 15-11 ATS since ’03.

• Conference championship playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 15-11 SU & ATS over the L13 seasons in this round. Interestingly, unlike other stats, this is a statistical edge most often for the road team, 16 times in those 26 contests. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are a bit less at 14-12 SU & ATS. Denver holds a distinctive edges in these defensive stats this season, while Arizona & Carolina split the edges in the NFC game.

• Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are 16-10 SU & ATS in the AFC & NFC title games since ‘03 while those that

held an edge in yards allowed per play were only slightly less at 15-11 SU & ATS. Advantage: Denver (Arizona & Carolina again split).

• Defensive yards per point should be given at least some consideration for conference championship Sunday, since teams with an edge there are 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in the last four seasons of this round, and 4-10 ATS over the L12 games. Fading these teams has been a sound strategy and thus fading the Patriots & Panthers would come into play here.

• Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are just 11-15 SU & ATS since ’02 in conference championship play.

• Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a mediocre 12-14 SU & ATS run in the L26 conference championship games.

• Teams’ Regular Season Statistics Combined Trends

• With a good base of singular trends to choose from, we did some combining the more successful statistical angles to come up with these even more successful combination angles concerning the teams in the conference championships and their regular season stats.

• Teams reaching the conference championship games with statistical edges in both offensive yards per play AND defensive total yardage have gone 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their L10 tries. This would be a Cardinals play for 2015.

SummaryIt takes an ideal set of circumstances, strengths, and momentum to reach the conference championship games, and picking out the two teams that will win and/or cover their games is certainly not a perfect science. Unfortunately it’s not just a matter of analyzing the teams’ entire season’s body of work. It becomes even more difficult when you consider that even the best teams that have played in these games in recent years have won but failed to cover their respective pointspreads. Hopefully some of what we’ve shown you this week helps get you ready for the big games.

Sometimes we tend to overcomplicate things at this time of year as we look for that golden nugget that is going to deliver big profits. In speaking with some of our experts about their own personal strategies, we heard some pretty simplistic but possibly successful theories…”Follow the money” or “Just take the better quarterback”. Lately it seems as if offense and the ability to throw the football means more than defense.

Whatever method you use to eventually decide your plays for this weekend, good luck, and we’ll see you back in a couple of weeks as we take on Super Bowl L!


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Date Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U Conf

1/14/96 #2 - PITTSBURGH 20 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS 16 -10.5 -11.5 41.5 41.5 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC1/14/96 #1 - DALLAS 38 #3 - GREEN BAY 27 -9 -8.5 50.5 50 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/12/97 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 20 #5 - JACKSONVILLE 6 -8 -7 45 44 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/12/97 #1 - GREEN BAY 30 #2 - CAROLINA 13 -10 -12 39 38 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/11/98 #1 - SAN FRANCISCO 10 #2 - GREEN BAY 23 1.5 2.5 43.5 44 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/11/98 #2 - PITTSBURGH 21 #4 - DENVER 24 -1 3 41 42 ROAD PUSH OVER AFC

1/17/99 #1 - DENVER 23 #2 - NY JETS 10 -8 -8.5 51 51.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/17/99 #1 - MINNESOTA 27 #2 - ATLANTA 30 -10.5 -10 55 54.5 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC

1/23/00 #1 - ST LOUIS 11 #2 - TAMPA BAY 6 -14 -14.5 46 44 HOME ROAD UNDER NFC1/23/00 #1 - JACKSONVILLE 14 #4 - TENNESSEE 33 -7 -7 39 41 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC

1/14/01 #1 - NY GIANTS 41 #2 - MINNESOTA 0 1 2.5 41.5 43.5 HOME HOME UNDER NFC1/14/01 #2 - OAKLAND 3 #4 - BALTIMORE 16 -6 -6 39 36 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/27/02 #1 - PITTSBURGH 17 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 24 -7 -10 35.5 38 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC1/27/02 #1 - ST LOUIS 29 #3 - PHILADELPHIA 24 -10 -10 49 47.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC

1/19/03 #1 - OAKLAND 41 #2 - TENNESSEE 24 -7 -9 47 46 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/19/03 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 10 #2 - TAMPA BAY 27 -4 -4.5 35.5 33.5 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC

1/18/04 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 3 #3 - CAROLINA 14 -5 -4 39 36.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/18/04 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 24 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 14 -4 -3.5 41 42 HOME HOME UNDER AFC

1/23/05 #1 - PITTSBURGH 27 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 41 2 3 38 36.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC1/23/05 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 27 #2 - ATLANTA 10 -4.5 -6 42 37 HOME HOME Push NFC

1/22/06 #1 - SEATTLE 34 #5 - CAROLINA 14 -5.5 -4 43 43.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/22/06 #2 - DENVER 17 #6 - PITTSBURGH 34 -3.5 -3 42.5 40.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC

1/21/07 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 38 #4 - NEW ENGLAND 34 -3 -3 49.5 47 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/21/07 #1 - CHICAGO 39 #2 - NEW ORLEANS 14 -3 -3 44 42.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC

1/20/08 #2 - GREEN BAY 20 #5 - NY GIANTS 23 -6.5 -7.5 43.5 41 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC1/20/08 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 21 #3 - SAN DIEGO 12 -15 -14 51 47.5 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC

1/18/09 #4 - ARIZONA 32 #6 - PHILADELPHIA 25 3 3 49.5 47 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/18/09 #2 - PITTSBURGH 23 #6 - BALTIMORE 14 -4.5 -6 33 35.5 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/24/10 #1 - NEW ORLEANS 31 #2 - MINNESOTA 28 -4 -4 53 53.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC1/24/10 #1 - INDIANAPOLIS 30 #5 - NY JETS 17 -7.5 -7.5 41 40 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/23/11 #2 - CHICAGO 14 #6 - GREEN BAY 21 3 3 43 42 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/23/11 #2 - PITTSBURGH 24 #6 - NY JETS 19 -3 -4.5 38.5 38 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/22/12 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 23 #2 - BALTIMORE 20 -7.5 -7 50 48.5 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC1/22/12 #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 17 #4 - NY GIANTS 20 -3 -2 44 41 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC

1/20/13 #1 - ATLANTA 24 #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 28 3 3.5 47 48 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC1/20/13 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 13 #4 - BALTIMORE 28 -9 -8 51 49 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/19/14 #1 - DENVER 26 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 16 -6.5 -5 54.5 57 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/19/14 #1 - SEATTLE 23 #5 - SAN FRANCISCO 17 -3.5 -4 41 40.5 HOME HOME UNDER NFC

1/18/15 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 45 #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 7 -7 -7 53.5 52.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/18/15 #1 - SEATTLE 28 #2 - GREEN BAY 22 -7.5 -8.5 46.5 44.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC

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RECENT NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME LOG

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RECENT NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME LOGS

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AFC CHAMPIONSHIP(311) NEW ENGLAND (-3 | 44) [SU:13-4 | ATS:8-6-3] AT (312) DENVER [SU:13-4 | ATS:8-7-2]

JANUARY 24, 2016 3:05 PM on CBS - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ENGLAND 28.9 22 23-85 [3.6] 39-25-288 [7.3] 12.9 19.7 19 25-101 [4.0] 38-23-241 [6.3] 17.4 +8 +9.2 DENVER 22.2 20 26-107 [4.1] 38-23-246 [6.5] 15.9 18.4 18 25-83 [3.3] 36-22-206 [5.7] 15.7 -3 +3.8

The New England Patriots are the lower seed and on the road, but are the favorite in Denver. Tom Brady is 11-5 SU in matchups with Peyton Manning and still appears to be at his best, while the elder quarterback is clearly in decline. Expect New England is use crossing routes similar to what Pittsburgh did in gaining over 310 yards twice against Denver’s vaunted defense. Though the Patriots do not have the same athletes as the Steelers catching the ball, all are skilled runners after the catch. One edge Brady has over Ben Roethlisberger is he is more willing to throw ball away and avoid negative plays. On defense, New England will look to stone Denver’s running offense and make Manning beat them with his arm, which is not the same since he’s arrived in the Rockies. By stopping the run, Bill Belichick’s secondary plays more press coverage and forces Manning to be very precise with throws. Off 30-24 loss in Denver two months ago, the Pats are 30-13 ATS revenging a same season setback.

No great mystery about Manning, he’s at the end of the line and kind of like the Eddie Harris, the wily veteran pitcher from the “Major League” movie, he getting by on savvy and making just enough plays. It would help the Broncos immensely if the receivers would hold onto the ball. The Denver offensive line has to really come off the ball this week to make their offense more effective, which helps their quarterback in the passing game. New England is dealing with a lot of injuries in their defensive front seven, thus, if they can find success early, it might be a huge help. The defense has one mission, get after Brady. Denver has to get push in the A-gaps to make Brady have to look around bodies to throw and possibly knockdown some attempts. If they can get New England in third and long, then the end rushers can turn it up and if they maintain upfront push, Brady cannot effectively step up to throw the ball. The Broncos are 26-12 ATS at home games versus teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 7-1-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 18.5

PPG(CS)• DENVER is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - VS AFC-EAST• NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 OVER(L2Y) - Against solid passing defenses yielding less than 5.95 yards

per attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?311 NEW ENGLAND -3 31.0 23.9 22.0 23.6 312 DENVER 44 28.5 0.1 21.1 22.7 22.1 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe Broncos won and covered the earlier November contest 30-24 as 2.5-point underdogs, with Brock Osweiler as quarterback and it is interesting to note at least early in the week, Denver is even a larger dog with Peyton Manning as starter. Prior to this, New England was on a 5-1 SU and ATS move over the Broncos. The home team has definitely mattered, having covered five straight and 7-2 ATS in last nine. In those nine matchups, the total has seen the same thing occur at 7-2 OVER. However, the most important part is declaring the winner, who is 16-0 ATS since 2000. VI PICKS

VI Jim 97-86 (53%) 33-23 (59%)*

VI Jason 96-87 (52%)31-24 (56%)*

VI Doug 105-78 (57%) 31-25 (57%)*

Power Ratings96-88 (52%)

Effective Strength 99-84 (54%)

Forecaster 92-91 (50%)

Bettors Ratings 91-92 (50%)

Consensus 102-81 (56%)

Sunday, January 24, 2016 - (311) NEW ENGLAND at (312) DENVER (+3)Denver* New

England*

Denver Denver Denver Denver Denver Denver

Sunday, January 24, 2016 - (311) NEW ENGLAND at (312) DENVER - TOTAL (44)UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)


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BEST BET Jim says…Color me confused as to why this week’s AFC championship game line set up like it did. After all, I thought Denver was overpriced last week, then pushed on the number. Now, a week later, it seems that oddsmakers have downgraded them by 3-points or so after their performance against Pittsburgh. I have made it no secret this season about how much I liked the Steelers’ chances to win it all, and I respect what the Broncos did to turn them away, injuries or not. They will be highly motivated by being an underdog to their nemesis at home in the biggest game of the year, especially since they beat the same opponent back in November rather handily. In that game, HC Gary Kubiak’s team was able to run and throw the ball with equal aplomb, and they shut down Tom Brady as well as anyone has this season. Denver will be in this game and if they do lose it will be by a late field goal. I’ll take the 3 points still.

Jason says…I am told that I am the only one of our seven tabulated selections that likes the defending Super Bowl champions to win the AFC title once again. How can this be? For me it seems easy, you are either going to back Tom Brady, who looked sharp last week, or Peyton Manning, who looks like a shell of his former self and figures to be playing his last game on Sunday. It isn’t like Manning is just struggling recently either, this is a long pattern. As sentimental of a story like Manning playing in the Super Bowl would be, I prefer to bet with my head, and that is telling me that this is a potential mismatch. The Patriots are far more prolific offensively and could run away with this game in the first half. If that happens, Denver doesn’t have what it takes to answer. New England takes care of biz and wins 31-17.

Doug says…The earlier game between New England and Denver this season featured 54 points and a come from behind OT win for the Broncos. Brock Osweiler was the quarterback in that game, and as much as Bill Belichick seems always prepared for every player he faces, the Patriots seemed to have little answer for the Denver offense, which gained 433 yards in the contest. I can’t see the same type of high scoring game with Manning under center, as I don’t think the Broncos believe they can get into a shootout and win this game. Manning is a game manager now, and he has the running game and defense to get where he wants to go so long as he doesn’t try to do too much. Being the ultimate seasoned veteran that latter scenario is highly unlikely. Expect Kubiak to play things close to the vest and make this game one decided late on a field goal, 19-16 either way, but I’ll go with Denver.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

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NFC CHAMPIONSHIP(313) ARIZONA [SU:14-3 | ATS:9-8] AT (314) CAROLINA (-3 | 48) [SU:16-1 | ATS:12-5]

JANUARY 24, 2016 6:40 PM on FOX - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM (CHARLOTTE, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA 30.3 23 28-115 [4.2] 36-22-291 [8.2] 13.4 19.6 18 23-94 [4.0] 36-22-232 [6.4] 16.6 +8 +10.7 CAROLINA 31.2 22 33-143 [4.3] 31-19-220 [7.1] 11.6 19.5 19 22-88 [4.0] 41-25-240 [5.8] 16.8 +22 +11.7

In this era of football, the old axiom of “defense wins championships” still applies, but you better be able to score and the top three scoring teams still remain in the playoffs, including the two best in the NFL title tilt. Arizona is averaging 30.3 points per game and is even better on the road at 32.7 PPG, which tells you why they are 7-1 (6-2 ATS) on the road. Coach Bruce Arians is always aggressive and loves to push the ball down the field with Carson Palmer and his bevy of weapons. Making Larry Fitzgerald a slot receiver was sheer brilliance and Palmer has a pass catchers who go get the ball and they were first in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.2). With a veteran offensive line, it was no problem transitioning to running back David Johnson, who brought better inside running. The defense has to find ways to keep Carolina in third and long, because they have the cover guys to stick with the Panthers receivers and their safeties are going to have to take away TE Greg Olson in clutch situations. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road after not covering two of three.

Human nature got the best of Carolina in the second half against Seattle, after building 31-0 lead. That should erode any hint of overconfidence for the Panthers. Let’s not lose sight of how good Carolina actually is, with a 20-2 SU and 14-6-2 ATS record since Week 14 of last year in all games played, including 11-0 (8-2-1 ATS) at Bank of America Stadium. The offense revolves around Cam Newton and the running game, but this team is scoring 34.5 points a contest in their past eight outings. Newton has gotten better as a passer, especially on slant passes and receivers have learned to improve as he has. Ron Rivera’s defense might not have the speed of Seattle or Denver, but athletically, nobody is better. Carolina can play sideline to sideline, has brutes in the defensive line to take away the run and rush the passer and great cover guys like Josh Norman. They are a little weak at safety, but nobody is perfect and they have all the necessary pieces to reach the Super Bowl.

GAME TRENDS• CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20

PPG(CS)• ARIZONA is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - On grass field• CAROLINA is 7-1 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - Against high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or

more(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?313 ARIZONA 48 30.0 23.4 21.1 23.2 314 CAROLINA -3 30.5 -3.1 26.9 25.6 25.4 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNSince 2001, Arizona holds a slim 7-6 ATS edge with five outright victories. What is worth noting is not once has a team failed to cover as least consecutive contests, but never more than three, with Carolina taking the playoff game last season at the same locale 27-16 as 5.5-point home favorites to end Arizona at 2-0 ATS. We have a similar circumstance with home/road overlook, the host is 4-0 ATS, following an 0-5 ATS stretch. With the home team winning, they are 3-1 ATS of late. On the total, the result has alternated nine consecutive times, the last an Over. On a smaller scale compared to the AFC title skirmish, the SU winner has covered six in a row and nine of 10. VI PICKS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF

VI Jim 97-86 (53%) 33-23 (59%)*

VI Jason 96-87 (52%)31-24 (56%)*

VI Doug 105-78 (57%) 31-25 (57%)*

Power Ratings96-88 (52%)

Effective Strength 99-84 (54%)

Forecaster 92-91 (50%)

Bettors Ratings 91-92 (50%)

Consensus 102-81 (56%)

Sunday, January 24, 2016 - (313) ARIZONA at (314) CAROLINA (-3)Carolina* Carolina Carolina* Carolina Carolina Carolina Arizona Carolina

Sunday, January 24, 2016 - (313) ARIZONA at (314) CAROLINA - TOTAL (48)OVER UNDER* UNDER* OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)


9


BEST BET Jim says…I think anyone that had doubts about Carolina before the divisional playoff game should be feeling a little more confident now. Despite Seattle’s valiant effort to make a game of it late, the contest really wasn’t ever truly “contested”. The Panthers are a team that is hungry, together, and completely fueled by a thought in their head that they are not respected. Truthfully there may be something to that, as typically a 15-1 team hosting a conference title game would be much more than a 3-point favorite, especially when the opponent isn’t exactly playing well. Our NFL feature article for the week shows that home favorites in the -3 to -6.5 line range are on a run of 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS over the last decade. Carolina figure to fit that bill by kickoff and should be favored by 4 or 5 points. This is Cam Newton’s year, and he will be in the big game. Carolina gets it done 31-20.

Jason says…While I am choosing to side with Carolina against the number last week in large part due to the way they jumped all over Seattle this past week in the divisional round, I will use my Best Bet on the total to go UNDER. Not only have five of the L7 conference title games with totals of 48 or more gone UNDER, the Arizona offense simply isn’t clicking like it once did, and thus this game should have a total reflective of the Cardinals’ entire body of work. It has been several week since the offense was hitting on all cylinders, as Green Bay severely limited them in the playoff game, and Seattle completely shut them down in the regular season finale. In between the team spent a week off, so it truly has been a long time since the offense played well. I also believe that QB Carson Palmer’s hand injury is being minimized. I expect Arizona to be in the game but they won’t do it offensively. Look for a 24-17 type of game.

Doug says…The Carolina Panthers are headed to the Super Bowl and here is why they win and cover over Arizona. From a matchup standpoint, Carolina’s defense fits nicely against the Cardinals. Arizona has seen two strong defenses the last two week and will get a third, this time on the road. In both games, defenses pinched their edge rushers in and narrowed the pocket on Carson Palmer and with pressure up the middle, he has not had as many clear passing lanes. This could matter and create negative plays and let’s not forget Arizona has committed seven turnovers in past three games. Cam Newton has been the best player all season and playing at home, I see one more big effort with his running and throwing the difference. Panthers 24-16.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

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We are down to the conference title games, with all the top seeds and the four best teams in the NFL. The spreads reflect this, making this a real challenge for football bettors While the actual line moves are few, here is a breakdown of the side, total and money line action. In addition, we have the latest Super Bowl future’s odds, projected game odds for the participants and all the margin of victory odds for both contests.

NFL – (311) NEW ENGLAND at (312) DENVER 3:05 ET CBSFrom a numbers perspective, the interesting aspect of New England being favored by -3 is the closing number of the last meeting two months ago was the Patriots were favored by -2.5, with Brock Osweiler Denver’s starting quarterback, not Peyton Manning. This sums up what oddsmakers think of the 39-year old Manning these days. Early in the week, four of every five bets placed were on the Patriots and over 60 percent had New England juiced at -3 (-120) or were at -3.5. Don’t expect this to move much by game time.

The total opened at 44 and a couple books went up to 44.5, otherwise, the market started relatively quiet. Again, this could go to 45, with New England backers believing their team will move the ball and not settle for field goals like Pittsburgh last week, being more efficient in the red zone.

My initial reaction to see the money line split was surprise, because the public always goes fishing trying to hit a longer shot in this situation. However, thinking more about, a fair amount of Patriots backers might not be as comfortable giving these points on the road and would rather pay a little extra to secure what they think is a victory.

Our Take – Leans on Denver ATS, Under and New England ML

NFL – (313) ARIZONA at (314) CAROLINA 6:40 ET FOXWhen Carolina was slaying Seattle 31-0 at halftime, a couple of the offshore sportsbooks known for putting out early lines had the Panthers at -4 over Arizona, yet, by the end the game were at -3 like everyone else. Unless a mountain of money comes in on one side, extremely difficult to see this number moving. Three out of every four bets placed were on Cam Newton’s club and why wouldn’t they be since they have won 11 consecutive home games, beating the spread eight times (8-2-1 ATS). Nonetheless, the reason the line is not expected to move is Arizona has won seven of eight away from home, covering six times, winning by 14 points a game.

Of course this has led to more traditional money line approach and two-thirds of bettors are backing the Cardinals, which is expected and could go higher by Sunday, as Arizona looks to be the equal of Carolina and the Panthers keep playing poorly in the second half.

The actual biggest line move has been on the total, which is up a point to 48. These are the two highest scoring teams in the NFL at over 31 points a game, who have the ability to create “chunk” plays to set up quick scores. Hard to argue with Carolina at 8-1 OVER and 8-0 OVER versus winning teams.

Our Take – Carolina covers ATS and ML and Over

RecordsNFL Playoffs -5-2NFL - 36-36-1College – 60-50-1 (regular season)Bowls – 11-9

Current Odds to Win Super Bowl 50 (courtesy of Sportsbook.ag)New England +190Carolina +195Arizona +360Denver +440

Patriots vs. Broncos Margin of Victory WagersBroncos Win By 01-03 Points +850Broncos Win By 04-06 Points +1250Broncos Win By 07-10 Points +1000Broncos Win By 11-13 Points +2300Broncos Win By 14-17 Points +1600Broncos Win By 18-21 Points +2300Broncos Win By 22 or More +1300

Patriots Win By 01-03 Points +550Patriots Win By 04-06 Points +800Patriots Win By 07-10 Points +550Patriots Win By 11-13 Points +1350Patriots Win By 14-17 Points +900Patriots Win By 18-21 Points +1250Patriots Win By 22 or More +550

Cardinals vs. Panthers Margin of Victory WagersCardinals Win By 01-03 Points +850Cardinals Win By 04-06 Points +1200Cardinals Win By 07-10 Points +950Cardinals Win By 11-13 Points +2200Cardinals Win By 14-17 Points +1500Cardinals Win By 18-21 Points +2200Cardinals Win By 22 or More +1150

Panthers Win By 01-03 Points +600Panthers Win By 04-06 Points +800Panthers Win By 07-10 Points +600Panthers Win By 11-13 Points +1400Panthers Win By 14-17 Points +900Panthers Win By 18-21 Points +1250Panthers Win By 22 or More +550

Anticipated Super Bowl 50 Lines NFC -1.5 and total of 49.5

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

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