weekly football tip sheet - VegasInsider.com · CFB – Monday (151) CLEMSON vs. (152) ALABAMA 8:00...

weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 19NFL Wild Card Round

College Football Championship

VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

1

Football Weekly Football Weekly

Thanks for downloading a copy of Issue #19 of the 2016-17 Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication. This is a special issue in many ways, as we wrap up the college football season with our coverage of the National Championship Game between Alabama & Clemson, as well as breakdown all of the Wild Card action in the NFL. The season has gone way too fast, and after this, there will be just three issues remaining in our season coverage.

The bowl season flew by and we hope you enjoyed what we had to offer for the 40 games. Browse to the two-page spread we have put together for the Alabama-Clemson showdown to see who our guys like in the title contest. While there you will also find plenty of other great coverage including stats, previews, trends, and a chart illustrating recent National Championship Game results.

Of course, before we even get to the CFP title game on Monday, there is a big weekend of NFL playoff actions, we open our four week dedicated coverage of the NFL postseason by breaking down the four wildcard games on tap for Saturday and Sunday. For each of the games, we are offering a full page of coverage, including stat matchups, written previews, head-to-head histories between the teams, our strength ratings, and of course, picks and Best Bets for every game.

With the playoffs upon us, we are also dedicating our feature articles for the rest of the year to analyzing the trends and key handicapping angles from playoffs past. This week’s article deals exclusively with the wildcard round, and you might be surprised to find some of the highly distinctive angles we have uncovered. Be sure to not place a single playoff bet this weekend until at least consulting this week’s piece. Every one of the four games is affected by something in the article.

The week 17 games were good for our NFL leader once again, as VI Jason hit eight out of 10 games overall and was 2-1 on Best Bets. He is now 40 games over-.500 for the season overall, good for 62%. However, he still trails VI Doug by a half game in the Best Bet standings and has just nine games to make that up.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t thank you once again for being a regular reader. Keep in mind that Vegas Insider isn’t just football though, as we cover the full gamut of sports on our web property, www.VegasInsider.com. We invite you to visit that address anytime 24/7 for the best in sports betting coverage.

We appreciate your continued support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and hope your New Year 2017 is off to a great start!

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule ......................................................................1

Football Line Moves ....................................................................2

NFL VI Picks ...................................................................................3

Recent NFL Wildcard Playoff Trends .........................................4

NFL Matchups ..............................................................................8

College Football National Championship Matchup ............12

101 OAKLAND 38 36.5P: 1:20PM C: 3:20PM E: 4:20PM ESPN

102 HOUSTON -3 -3.5103 DETROIT 44.5 42.5

P: 5:15PM C: 7:15PM E: 8:15PM NBC104 SEATTLE -7 -8

105 MIAMI 47.5 47P: 10:05AM C: 12:05PM E: 1:05PM CBS

106 PITTSBURGH -9.5 -10107 NY GIANTS 44.5 44

P: 1:40PM C: 3:40PM E: 4:40PM FOX108 GREEN BAY -4 -4

151 CLEMSON 51 51.5P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN

152 ALABAMA -6 -6.5

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFSSATURDAY, JANUARY 7, 2017

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NAT'L CHAMPIONSHIPMONDAY, JANUARY 9, 2017

RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM - TAMPA, FL

SUNDAY, JANUARY 8, 2017

2

THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


The NFL regular season is in the books, making it time to roll on to the playoffs. Just one college game remains and it is for the national championship. Here is a look at the early line moves for these upcoming games in detail. Make sure to review all the latest line adjustments, as we continue our best-ever season at Vegas Insider.

NFL – Saturday - (101) OAKLAND at (102) TEXAS 4:35 ET ESPNIt comes without any surprise the total on the first playoff encounter has sunk from 37.5 to 36.5, given the quarterback situations for both teams. In either case, one would surmise both head coaches will live or die with a war in the trenches, looking to run the ball and picks spots to throw, hoping nothing bad results when passing, like turnovers. Cannot imagine in either case when the starting quarterbacks are actually announced this would cause the total to rise and if anything only see it going lower.

Houston opened at -3 and was modestly bumped to -3.5, with many wondering how Oakland moves the ball at all if they cannot run the pigskin. Early bets placed favored the Texans and the Under. VIFW Take – Lean Over

NFL – Saturday - (103) DETROIT at (104) SEATTLE 8:15 ET NBCBoth NFL teams come in playing far from their best football. Detroit after looking like a lock to win the NFC North for the first time in 23 years, closed 0-3 and 0-4 ATS. Seattle could not hold on to the No.2 slot in the NFC with a 2-2 and 1-3 ATS finish. Though around 70 percent of bets placed have been on the Lions, the Seahawks have gone from -7 to -8 at home.

Though Seattle is a noteworthy home team for years, there 4-3-1 ATS record is similar to last year’s at 4-4 against the spread, which might suggest Pete Carroll’s club is no longer has a true juggernaut in the Northwest. Though the Lions are laboring, defensively they could keep the score down and the Seahawks defense is not the same without safety Earl Thomas.

The total has not changed from 42.5. VIFW Take – Detroit covers

NFL – (105) MIAMI at (106) PITTSBURGH 1:05 ET CBSPittsburgh was sent out by sportsbooks at -10 and briefly went to -9.5, before settling in at -10 again. This figures to be the biggest spread of the Wild Card round. The initial numbers find almost 70 percent of bets placed are on Miami, suggesting mostly ‘public’ money, which the oddsmakers are not impressed with. Unless a large influx of Steelers money were to come in, it is hard to believe the books would go to -10.5 or higher on Pittsburgh, because they would likely see a great deal of Miami

money on what would be a key number in this situation.

The total opened at 47.5 and almost immediately was down to 47, in spite of nearly 80 wagered on the Over. Expect that betting ratio to come down. VIFW Take – Lean Over

NFL – (107) N.Y. GIANTS at (108) GREEN BAY 4:40 ET FOXLate Sunday night, Green Bay was a -4 point favorite over New York and for a few hours dipped to -3.5, before climbing to -4.5 at all but a few offshore books known for attracting sharper action, who remained at -4. The wagering public numbers are also shading the Packers, hovering around 60 percent.

Backing the Pack comes with risks even with a white-hot Aaron Rodgers playing at Lambeau Field. The Giants are the superior defensive team and have the secondary that can curtail what Green Bay likes to do, especially if they can stop the run. New York is real mediocre on offense, yet two or three passes to Odell Beckham Jr. could change the game. The G-Men are 11-2 ATS as a wild card team in the playoffs.

The total was sent out at 44.5 and became split at that number and 44, despite 80 percent of bets places on the Over. VIFW Take – Lean New York

CFB – Monday (151) CLEMSON vs. (152) ALABAMA 8:00 ET ESPNAfter Clemson shutout Ohio State, a couple media outlets reported Alabama was touchdown favorite. While a few sportsbooks might have released that number, once the consensus line was released, the Crimson Tide were at -6 and have ended up at -6.5.

While nobody can deal with distractions better than Nick Saban, the Lane Kiffin for Steve Sarkisian switch at offensive coordinator is a red flag. It might be a seamless transition, but bettors have to contemplate how this could impact Alabama, especially if the Clemson defense stuffs the run in the first half.

The total dropping from 54 to 51.5 or 51 is a reflection of both squads defenses. We are not expecting anything like last year’s high scoring affair and teams like Alabama after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, against opponent after a win by 21 or more points, are 45-16 UNDER since 2012. VIFW Take – Play Under

RecordsNFL Best Bets - 16-13NFL Leans - 28-19

Bowls - 12-6College Best Bets– 23-18College Leans - 52-29-2

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES


3


VI Jim says…There have been a lot of reasons lately to think that Seattle is not capable of making a playoff run, however, you have to think that with all of the postseason experience the Seahawks have, a home playoff game in this wildcard round would not go wasted. Seattle has been wildly inconsistent but this matchup just doesn’t strike fear into me. Detroit is a team that is running out of gas, and the Lions’ season will be looked at as a success just for the fact that they made the playoffs. As was shown on Sunday night however, they just don’t have the horses for playoff success. In fact, they are quite average on both sides of the ball and are actually outgained by 0.4 yards per play overall. Seattle HC Pete Carroll’s teams are 40-20 ATS at home, and his franchise has won all nine home playoff games since ’05. With favorites of a TD or more on a 8-0 SU & ATS run in the wild card round, and outright winners boasting a 31-2-1 ATS record in the L34 games of this round, I just don’t see Seattle losing. Seahawks roll 27-10.

VI Jason says…It’s very early in the week but I’ve already seen folks bringing up the playoff history between the Giants and Packers, citing the former’s two wins at Lambeau Field in the last 10 years. I will completely refute that argument and insist that those were completely different Giants’ teams, as Tom Coughlin’s influence on the team grittiness and physicality were obvious. Those teams also had a young and potent Eli Manning quarterbacking. The Manning of here & now is a dink and dunk passer that seems almost petrified of getting hit. I would say that this is the biggest offensive mismatch of any of the four games in the wildcard round, and with the way Aaron Rodgeers’ & Co. were rolling offensively at the end of the season, I’m not sure New York can keep up. In the L4 games of the year, Green Bay scored 34.3 PPG, while the Giants averaged 16.3 PPG. The Packers also turned the ball over just once in their 6-game season ending run. That will prove key as New York feasted on turnovers down the stretch. Being hot offensively with a MVP-level QB is a big deal at this time of the year, Green Bay takes it 28-20.

VI Doug says…While taking Pittsburgh on the surface appears risky at such a high price, postseason spreads are more indicative of the actual difference between the teams. Pittsburgh ended up No.7 in total offense, with Miami 29th in total defense. The balance will be the biggest difference with the Steelers being able to run and pass and taking advantage of a defense that for a playoff team is quite slow. The Pittsburgh defense will be very focused on stopping the run and not allowing over 200 yards on the ground like previous contest. Matt Moore is competent backup, but having to play in a place like Heinz Field in that environment after Pittsburgh builds a lead, good luck coming back! Steelers are home with better team, better quarterback and increased motivation, which leads to victory by 14 or more points.

VI Jim 95-69 (58%) 22-25 (47%)*

VI Jason 101-61 (62%) 30-17 (64%)*

VI Doug 92-72 (56%) 31-17 (65%)*

Power Ratings76-88 (46%)

Effective Strength 78-86 (48%)

Forecaster 72-92 (44%)

Bettors Ratings 76-88 (46%)

Consensus 86-78 (52%)

Saturday, January 7, 2017 - (101) OAKLAND at (102) HOUSTON (-3)Oakland Houston* Houston Oakland Oakland Houston Oakland Oakland

Saturday, January 7, 2017 - (101) OAKLAND at (102) HOUSTON - TOTAL (37)UNDER* UNDER UNDER* OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Saturday, January 7, 2017 - (103) DETROIT at (104) SEATTLE (-7.5)Seattle* Seattle* Detroit* Detroit Detroit Detroit Seattle Detroit

Saturday, January 7, 2017 - (103) DETROIT at (104) SEATTLE - TOTAL (43)UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

Sunday, January 8, 2017 - (105) MIAMI at (106) PITTSBURGH (-9.5)Pittsburgh* Miami Pittsburgh* Miami Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Miami Pittsburgh

Sunday, January 8, 2017 - (105) MIAMI at (106) PITTSBURGH - TOTAL (47.5)OVER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Sunday, January 8, 2017 - (107) NY GIANTS at (108) GREEN BAY (-3.5)Green

Bay

Green

Bay*

NY Giants Green

Bay

NY Giants Green

Bay

Green

Bay

Green Bay

Sunday, January 8, 2017 - (107) NY GIANTS at (108) GREEN BAY - TOTAL (44.5)OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

4




The NFL playoffs have gone through various trend patterns over the years, with some seasons being dominated by underdog and upstart teams, and others being relatively predictable with favorites taking care of business eventually. As such, it is difficult for bettors to navigate the waters from year-to-year. In past decades, predicting the playoffs was usually as easy as looking at a team’s body of work. That truly isn’t the case anymore, especially on a round-to-round basis, as it seems that how a team is playing lately seems to be a bigger factor than anything else nowadays. That line of thinking would bode well for teams like New England, Pittsburgh, the Giants and Green Bay, each of the latter three of whom are in action this coming weekend. However, that said, if any round of the playoffs is truly wild and unpredictable, it is fittingly the “Wild Card” round.

After writing a handful of years ago about how well road teams had been doing in the Wild Card round, wouldn’t you know it, the home teams came up with a weekend sweep, including one huge home dog upset. That was in 2011. Since then, the success of home & road teams on Wild Card weekend has alternated, and with road teams having swept the games a year ago, it would serve that hosts do well in this upcoming weekend. To go on such a baseless theory would be a big risk however. It is clear that the level of unpredictability makes it very tough for football bettors.

Although each of the last three Super Bowl games have matched #1 seeds (this year New England & Dallas), one other trend that has developed in recent years that has been truly significant is the emergence of the eventual champion from wildcard weekend. In fact, six of the league’s last 11 champions have started their playoff journey during this weekend, so it sometimes makes more sense to just throw away anything you think you may have learned in the 17 weeks of the regular season. Is the eventual Super Bowl Champion, like Baltimore of 2013, one of the teams playing this weekend? Only time will tell but savvy bettors have picked up big winnings by banking on such thoughts. Many experts right now believe that the Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers, and Packers are all most capable of winning a title in 2017.

With the overbearing perception of unpredictability on our minds, we at the Football Weekly thought we’d go back and

dig through the database of the recent playoff logs and see if we couldn’t uncover any tips of the trade that might help better handicap the wildcard weekend games. We looked at it all, home/road scenarios, dogs/favorites, lines, stats, you name it. Continue reading to see what we’ve found, and then see if you can’t apply to the upcoming action.

GENERAL WILDCARD PLAYOFF ATS TRENDS• The OUTRIGHT winner owns a pointspread

record of 31-2-1 ATS in the L34 Wildcard Playoff games! That said, the last two seasons have produced the only ATS losses in that stretch, as Dallas (-6) failed to cover the number in a controversial 24-20 win over Detroit two years ago, and last season, it was Seattle (-4.5) edging Minnesota 10-9 on a late missed field goal. Those were rare, so for this weekend, regardless of the pointspread, if you can’t see the team you’re betting on winning the game, don’t do it.

• Road teams seem to have regained the edge in this round in recent years, going 8-3 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in the L11 Wild Card games.

• Favorites were 4-0 SU & ATS in the ’13 Wildcard Playoffs but underdogs are 5-3 SU & 5-2-1 ATS since.

• Last year, there were three road favorites, tying for the most since ’09. Wildcard road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been 13 in the L8 seasons. Those teams are 8-5 SU & 6-6-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh & Kansas City winning and covering a year ago, and Seattle winning but failing to cover at Minnesota. For 2017, the home favorites have returned, two of them large favorites.

• Home favorites of a TD or more in the wildcard round are a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS since 2005, and for the first time in four years, we will be able to take advantage of this trend with both Seattle and Pittsburgh figuring to play as such.

• There has been a definitive separation in success levels of the home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the L20 Saturday games, home teams are 13-7 SU & 13-6-1 ATS. In that same span, road teams are 11-9 SU & 11-8-1 ATS on Sunday’s.

• Sunday road NFC teams have been terrific, going 9-5 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in the L14. UNDER the total is also 11-3 in those games. The Giants will test Green Bay on these trends this weekend.

WILDCARD TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER• #4 seeds are on a 12-8 SU & 12-6-2 ATS

run over the L10 Wildcard seasons, but Washington and Houston both lost in 2016.

• Of the six #3-#6 seed Wildcard matchups over the last four seasons, UNDER the total is 7-0-1. In the L6 games, #6 seeds own a 5-1 SU & ATS record!

• #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3-point favorite have lost eight straight games outright while going 1-7 ATS, scoring just 13.4 PPG in the process. Watch the line in the Oakland-Houston game to see if this trend is in play for this weekend.

RECENT NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF TRENDS


5


WILDCARD TRENDS REGARDING TOTALS• The common pattern in the L7 years has

shown that when road teams have won outright, UNDER the total has a record of 12-3-2. Home teams scored just 14.5 PPG in those road wins.

• UNDER the total is on a significant trend pattern going into 2016, with a record of 12-3-1 over the L4 seasons.

• Of the L15 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, UNDER the total is 11-3-1. Those with totals less than 44 are 5-4 OVER in the L9.

• Of the L20 Sunday Wild Card games, 15 have gone UNDER the total. Of the 18 Saturday games, OVER the total is 10-7-1.

FOLLOW THE LINE MOVESSharp bettors have been right on sides at a rate of 19-7-1 in the L27 wildcard playoff games, good for 73% ATS!!! This is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3, and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that sharp bettors are favoring the road team. Note that the “sharps” won last year with Minnesota, but lost by following Cincinnati & Washington.

Similarly, but not quite as advantageous, sharp bettors have also done well on totals in wildcard games. Over the L8 wildcard playoff seasons, bettors are 18-8 (69.3%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. Bettors won all four totals in 2016.

Clearly it is worthwhile to follow the line moves in the week leading up to kickoff.

STATS GENERATED IN WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES• Only one home team that has topped the

20-point mark has lost in the L15 years of wildcard playoff action, going 31-1 SU & 26-5-1 ATS. That was 2008 Pittsburgh.

• Only two home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a wildcard playoff game have won in the L13 years, going 2-25 SU & 3-23-1 ATS. Those winners were San Diego, who beat Tennessee 17-6 in ’08, and Houston in 2013, a 19-13 winner over Cincinnati. A year ago, all four home teams scored 16 points or less.

• The magic point total for road teams is 17 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the wildcard round are 1-18 SU & 0-19 ATS since ’02. Seattle of ’16 was the lone winner. Teams reaching that total were 29-10-2 ATS in that same span.

• Teams that gain more first downs are 16-7-1 ATS in the L6 wildcard playoff seasons

• Teams that win the time of possession battle are on a 27-13 SU & 25-13-2 ATS run in the wildcard playoffs.

• Wildcard playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 25-7 SU & 23-7-2 ATS over the L8 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a wildcard playoff game are just 21-11 SU & 20-11-1 ATS in that same span.

• Putting up big passing numbers in wildcard playoff games has been a recipe of success the last four wildcard season, since those teams are 15-5 SU & 14-5-1 ATS in that time. That is a change from prior years as teams had tended to put up big passing numbers in catch up mode.

• Alternatively, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are far more successful in the long term. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a wildcard playoff game are 36-10-2 ATS since ’04.

• Teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent haven’t been as successful as you might think in the wildcard playoffs, but are 18-6 SU & 16-7-1 ATS over the L9 seasons. In 12 of the games during that span, the turnover differential was even.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON WON-LOST RECORD TREND• If the L7 wildcard playoff seasons have

proven anything, it’s that regular season records do not matter one iota when it comes to determining who will win. In fact, teams that won more regular season games are just 13-15 SU & 12-15-1 ATS in that span. In four matchups, the teams shared the same won-lost mark. With divisional winner hosting wildcard teams in this round, it is often road teams sporting the better mark. Such is the case in both #4-#5 matchups in 2017.

• Home teams that won fewer games during the season than their wildcard opponent are on an 8-5 SU & ATS run, but it should be noted that both Houston & Washington lost a year ago.

• Home teams that won nine games or fewer during the regular season are on a 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS run in the wildcard playoffs and own a record of 8-5 SU & 7-4-2 ATS since ’03. Strangely, at the same time, hosts that won 12 or more games are also 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in that span.

• Road wildcard teams that won 11 or more games and were forced to play in the wildcard round are just 7-10 SU & 7-9-1 ATS since ’08. Alternatively, wildcard visitors that won nine games or less in the regular season boast a record of 7-7 SU & 9-4-1 ATS since ’02.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON OFFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS• Teams that scored more points per game

during the regular season have won just 12 wildcard playoff games in the L7 years, that’s 12-16 SU & 10-17-1 ATS.

• Rushing statistics have meant little to nothing when it comes to wildcard playoff success lately, as teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are just 18-14 SU & 15-16-1 ATS since ’09. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were just 17-15 SU & 16-15-1 ATS in that span.

• Wildcard teams with an edge in offensive passing yardage are slightly worse at 16-16 SU & 16-15-1 ATS over the L8 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt are 16-14 SU & 16-15-1 ATS in

6




that span but have gotten hot of late, going 15-7 SU & 13-8-1 ATS in the L22 wildcard games.

• Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively, and more yards per play in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to wildcard playoff success, going 17-15 SU & 15-16-1 ATS over the L8 seasons.

• Offensive yards per point has proven to be as effective of an offensive statistical indicator as any other category, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point offensively are only 28-14 SU & ATS in the wildcard playoffs dating back to ‘06. The teams this weekend with those edges are Oakland, Detroit, Miami, & Green Bay.

• Teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are 16-13 SU & 15-13-1 ATS since ’08 in wildcard playoff games.

• Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were just 15-16 SU & 13-17-1 ATS in the L8 wildcard playoff seasons, and lost all four games ATS a year ago.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON DEFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS• Teams that allowed fewer points per game

during the regular season are on a 19-11 SU & 18-11-1 ATS run in wildcard playoff action. So far, this is one of the more definitive statistical angles we have found. Houston, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and the Giants hold the edges in the matchups this weekend.

• Rushing defense has also been effective as an indicator when it comes to winning wildcard playoff games, as teams that allow fewer rushing yards per game are 18-14 SU & 16-13-1 ATS since ’08. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush were a bit better at 18-13 SU & 18-12-1 ATS. Note that Houston & Kansas City both allowed 4.10 yards per rush a year ago in the regular season. All three other teams with the edge in this stat won last year.

• Wildcard teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just 17-15 SU & 16-15-1 ATS over the L8 seasons in this playoff round.

• Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who’ve held the edge in this category are 16-15 SU & 15-15-1 ATS over the L8 seasons. The interesting part is that 24 of the 31 teams with edges in this stat were the road teams.

• Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have been quite successful, going 21-11 SU & 20-11-1 ATS in the wildcard round since ‘08. Those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a few games worse at 17-15 SU & 16-15-1 ATS. The teams that gave up fewer yards this season for this weekend are Houston, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and the Giants.

• Wildcard teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those at allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their wildcard playoff games at a 18-14 SU & 19-12-1 ATS rate over the L8 seasons. This year’s edge holders in defensive YPPT are

Oakland, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and the Giants.• Teams that forced more turnovers in the

regular season than their opponent are on a 20-9 SU & 19-9-1 ATS run since ’08 in wildcard playoff games. Oakland, Seattle, and Miami hold edges for 2017, with New York & Green Bay having forced an equal number of turnovers.

• Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were 20-12 SU & 19-12-1 ATS in the L32 wildcard playoff games.

SUMMARYAlthough we’ve found a few decent trends that you might be willing to put to use this weekend, it’s obvious that stats are not the end all when it comes to handicapping wildcard playoff games. Certain stats, as you probably made notes on, can prove very valuable, others almost certainly not, no more valuable than the flip of a coin. If blindly following any stat strategy however, err on the defensive side of things, as it seems that the better defensive teams have been the more reliable wildcard wagers of late.

For a quick wrap up though, as you get ready for this weekend’s games, expect the unexpected. Don’t put a whole lot of stock into teams’ records or home field advantage. Think more along the lines of “what have you done for me lately?” Ask yourself specific questions…Do you see a team capable of making a run all the way to the Super Bowl playing this weekend? If so, that team will almost certainly get the job done here. Have you followed the line moves all week long leading up to kickoff? Which team has the better quarterback/coach nucleus? Did you note the teams with the key statistical edges, particularly in offensive and defensive yards per point? Did you check the Strength Indicators or any other mathematical models that might help project an approximate number of points you can expect from each team? Proper preparations can certainly help separate the betting winners and losers in the playoffs.


7


Date Day Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U Conf

1/6/07 Saturday #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 23 #6 - KANSAS CITY 8 -6.5 -7.5 50 50.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/6/07 Saturday #4 - SEATTLE 21 #5 - DALLAS 20 -3 -1 46.5 48.5 HOME Push UNDER NFC1/7/07 Sunday #4 - NEW ENGLAND 37 #5 - NY JETS 16 -9.5 -9.5 38 39 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/7/07 Sunday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 23 #6 - NY GIANTS 20 -6.5 -6.5 47 46.5 HOME ROAD UNDER NFC

1/5/08 Saturday #3 - SEATTLE 35 #6 - WASHINGTON 14 -5 -3 40 39.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/5/08 Saturday #4 - PITTSBURGH 29 #5 - JACKSONVILLE 31 -1 3 37.5 40 ROAD HOME OVER AFC1/6/08 Sunday #3 - SAN DIEGO 17 #6 - TENNESSEE 6 -7 -11 42 39.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/6/08 Sunday #4 - TAMPA BAY 14 #5 - NY GIANTS 24 -3 -3 39.5 39.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC

1/3/09 Saturday #4 - SAN DIEGO 23 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS 17 2.5 2.5 51 50 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/3/09 Saturday #4 - ARIZONA 30 #5 - ATLANTA 24 3 -2 51 51.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/4/09 Sunday #3 - MINNESOTA 14 #6 - PHILADELPHIA 26 2.5 3 43.5 40.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/4/09 Sunday #3 - MIAMI 9 #6 - BALTIMORE 27 3 3.5 37 38 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/9/10 Saturday #3 - DALLAS 34 #6 - PHILADELPHIA 14 -1.5 -3.5 48.5 45.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/9/10 Saturday #4 - CINCINNATI 14 #5 - NY JETS 24 -3.5 -3 45.5 34 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC

1/10/10 Sunday #4 - ARIZONA 51 #5 - GREEN BAY 45 -2.5 3 48.5 48.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/10/10 Sunday #3 - NEW ENGLAND 14 #6 - BALTIMORE 33 -4 -3.5 44 43.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC

1/8/11 Saturday #4 - SEATTLE 41 #5 - NEW ORLEANS 36 10 10 45 45.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/8/11 Saturday #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 16 #6 - NY JETS 17 -3 -2 44 44 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC1/9/11 Sunday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 16 #6 - GREEN BAY 21 -2.5 -1.5 46 46.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/9/11 Sunday #4 - KANSAS CITY 7 #5 - BALTIMORE 30 3 3 42 41 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/7/12 Saturday #3 - HOUSTON 31 #6 - CINCINNATI 10 -3 -4.5 38 38 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/7/12 Saturday #3 - NEW ORLEANS 45 #6 - DETROIT 28 -10 -11 58 59.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/8/12 Sunday #4 - NY GIANTS 24 #5 - ATLANTA 2 -3 -3 48.5 47 HOME HOME UNDER NFC1/8/12 Sunday #4 - DENVER 29 #5 - PITTSBURGH 23 8 7.5 34 35.5 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/5/13 Saturday #3 - GREEN BAY 24 #6 - MINNESOTA 10 -8 -11 45.5 44 HOME HOME UNDER NFC1/5/13 Saturday #3 - HOUSTON 19 #6 - CINCINNATI 13 -5 -4 44 42 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/6/13 Sunday #4 - BALTIMORE 24 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS 9 -6.5 -7 46.5 48 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/6/13 Sunday #4 - WASHINGTON 14 #5 - SEATTLE 24 2.5 3 45 45 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC

1/4/14 Saturday #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 45 #5 - KANSAS CITY 44 -2.5 2 46.5 48 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/4/14 Saturday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 24 #6 - NEW ORLEANS 26 -2.5 -3 54.5 54 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/5/14 Sunday #3 - CINCINNATI 10 #6 - SAN DIEGO 27 -7 -6 46 48 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC1/5/14 Sunday #4 - GREEN BAY 20 #5 - SAN FRANCISCO 23 2.5 3 48.5 46.5 ROAD Push UNDER NFC

1/3/15 Saturday #4 - CAROLINA 27 #5 - ARIZONA 16 -4.5 -5.5 39 37.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/3/15 Saturday #3 - PITTSBURGH 17 #6 - BALTIMORE 30 -3 -3 47 47 ROAD ROAD Tie AFC1/4/15 Sunday #3 - DALLAS 24 #6 - DETROIT 20 -7 -6 48 48 HOME ROAD UNDER NFC1/4/15 Sunday #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 26 #5 - CINCINNATI 10 -4 -3.5 49 47.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC

1/9/16 Saturday #4 - HOUSTON 0 #5 - KANSAS CITY 30 3 3 40.5 39.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC1/9/16 Saturday #3 - CINCINNATI 16 #6 - PITTSBURGH 18 2.5 1.5 46.5 45.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/10/16 Sunday #3 - MINNESOTA 9 #6 - SEATTLE 10 5.5 4.5 42.5 40 ROAD HOME UNDER NFC1/10/16 Sunday #4 - WASHINGTON 18 #5 - GREEN BAY 35 0 -2 46 47.5 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC

2015 Season

2014 Season

2013 Season

2006 Season

2012 Season

2011 Season

2007 Season

2008 Season

2009 Season

2010 Season

8




NFL WILD CARD ROUND(101) OAKLAND [SU:12-4 | ATS:10-6] AT (102) HOUSTON (-3.5 | 36.5) [SU:9-7 | ATS:6-9-1]

JANUARY 7, 2017 4:35 PM on ESPN - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAKLAND 26.0 21 27-120 [4.4] 37-24-253 [6.8] 14.3 24.1 20 26-118 [4.5] 34-20-257 [7.6] 15.6 +16 +1.9 HOUSTON 17.4 19 28-116 [4.1] 36-22-198 [5.4] 18.0 20.5 17 25-100 [4.0] 33-20-202 [6.2] 14.7 -7 -3.1

Less than two weeks ago Oakland was thought as one of the teams in the AFC that could knock off New England because they had the offense to match points with the Patriots. Now without Derek Carr and having two quarterbacks that surely do not inspire their teammates, the Raiders have to win on the road to even advance. Oakland’s path to the next round is dependent on No.6 rushing offense moving the ball versus Houston’s a little above average run defense (No.12), who will no doubt have seven or eight players in the box to force whoever is the Raiders quarterback to throw the ball. Defensively, if Oakland’s defense plays with the same lack of energy as they did in Denver, they are already a beaten team.

The Texans are in more advantageous position despite having similar conundrum to Oakland. Houston lost to the Raiders in Mexico almost seven weeks ago 27-20 and will have revenge and home field advantage. The Texans do not have reliable quarterback either, but ran for 124 yards in previous game and shut down Oakland running game to 30 yards on 20 attempts. They will not have to worry about passing game this time. With the NFL a quarterback-driven league, the outcome of this contest will be dependent the defenses, running game and field position. Whichever team can win two of those three elements and their quarterback does not make critical mistakes, that will be your winner. Figuring that out is the hard part.

GAME TRENDS• OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games• HOUSTON is 3-8-1 ATS(L5Y) - VS OPP with less than 6 days rest• HOUSTON is 8-3 UNDER(L2Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?101 OAKLAND 36.5 27.5 17.6 15.7 17.7 102 HOUSTON -3.5 21.0 -3.1 20.5 21.9 21.1 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese teams met on the Monday before Thanksgiving in Mexico and Oakland came from behind to win 27-20 as 6.5-point favorites. Of course the circumstances will be far different this time around, nonetheless, the road team has covered four in a row, excluding earlier matchup. The Raiders have covered three of four over Houston, though the underdog is 2-4 ATS in the last six. Almost impossible to imagine a fourth straight Over given the quarterbacks. Oakland is 7-2 SU and ATS in away games and the Texans are 7-1 and 4-3-1 ATS at home this season.

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF


9


NFL WILD CARD ROUND(103) DETROIT [SU:9-7 | ATS:7-8-1] AT (104) SEATTLE (-8 | 42.5) [SU:10-5-1 | ATS:7-8-1]

JANUARY 7, 2017 8:15 PM on NBC - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DETROIT 21.6 21 22-82 [3.7] 37-24-257 [6.9] 15.7 22.4 21 24-106 [4.4] 34-25-248 [7.2] 15.8 -1 -0.8 SEATTLE 22.1 20 25-99 [3.9] 35-23-258 [7.3] 16.2 18.2 19 28-93 [3.4] 34-21-226 [6.7] 17.5 +1 +3.9

After Detroit lost to Green Bay, their third loss in a row, which deprived them yet again of division title, the players and coaches were not focused on the past, but rather on the future, with a “new season” at hand, which is a new opportunity. The Lions offense is all on QB Matthew Stafford. RB Zach Zenner has given the running game a bump, but once opposing teams fill running lanes, Detroit is back to square one having to throw essentially on every down. The Lions defense kept their team in games until Stafford found a way to win most of the season, but they are going to have to come up big and negate the Seahawks run game and play tighter coverage on third down to win in Seattle.

This is not the same Pete Carroll’s Seahawks team that almost won back-to-back Super Bowl’s. The key players on defense are getting older and touch slower and safety Earl Thomas is not there to clean up miscues other would make. The offensive line continues to be a continual problem and with a lack of healthy running backs, there is nobody to make big plays and score, which leads to Russell Wilson taking a pounding. With where Detroit is right now mentally, Seattle has enough to win and possibly cover this contest, but by almost any measure the Seahawks are no better than the fifth-best team in the NFC and will have contain Stafford to win.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 12-3-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 6.9 yards

per attempt(CS)• DETROIT is 2-9 ATS(L5Y) - 1000 or more travel miles• DETROIT is 9-2-1 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than

3.0 points per game(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?103 DETROIT 42.5 23.5 18.0 18.2 17.0 104 SEATTLE -8 27.5 -6.9 24.9 24.6 27.2 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNIt took a playoff game for these two teams to faceoff in back to back seasons, as this has never happened since Seattle became an NFC member and of course it could have never occurred when they were in the AFC. Seattle won a hard-fought 13-10 contest last season as 9.5-point home favorites. The Seahawks are only 1-3 ATS against Detroit since 2006. The Lions cover ended a four-game ATS streak for the home team and the Over is 4-2 in the last half dozen. Detroit is 3-5 SU and ATS on the road, with Seattle 7-1 and 4-3-1 ATS in their building.


10




NFL WILD CARD ROUND(105) MIAMI [SU:10-6 | ATS:8-6-2] AT (106) PITTSBURGH (-10 | 47) [SU:11-5 | ATS:9-6-1]

JANUARY 8, 2017 1:05 PM on CBS - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI 22.7 17 25-114 [4.5] 30-20-219 [7.3] 14.7 23.8 22 29-140 [4.8] 37-23-242 [6.6] 16.1 +2 -1.1 PITTSBURGH 24.9 21 26-110 [4.3] 37-24-262 [7.0] 14.9 20.4 20 23-100 [4.3] 37-24-243 [6.6] 16.8 +5 +4.5

Great job by rookie head coach Adam Gase to have Miami return to the playoffs for the first time since 2008, especially after 1-4 start. However, the Dolphins are not built for lasting power in the playoffs. Matt Moore has done the best he could for Gase and is best of the replacement QB’s that will start in the playoffs this weekend, nonetheless, Ryan Tannehill brought other parts to the offense Moore cannot duplicate. That means that the Dolphins have to run the ball and they and Jay Ajayi have only had one game reaching 100 yards in their last seven tries, after posting 180.2 yards over four contests at the start of six-game winning streak. Miami arrives in the postseason with the worst defense, ranked 29th overall and they lack speed in the back seven.

Pittsburgh has the offense to beat anyone over four games. Ben Roethlisberger is the main cog, but with Le’Veon Bell, Big Ben does not have to pass on every down and Bell is extremely valuable not only as a runner, but in the passing game also. If the Steelers are to cover the weekend’s biggest spread, the defense will hold the key. After doing a pretty good job in holding Dallas to 127 rushing, Pittsburgh held next five opponents to 64.6 YPG on the ground, but have permitted 353 total yards rushing the past two weeks and were 16th versus the pass. The defense takes away Miami’s run game, the Steelers cruise to next round.

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 9-2-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• MIAMI is 4-10 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per

attempt(CS)• PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?105 MIAMI 47 24.0 17.0 18.0 17.2 106 PITTSBURGH -10 28.5 -9.0 29.0 28.5 26.7 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNIt will be nearly three months ago since these teams played and Pittsburgh certainly still remembers being whipped in the trenches in 30-15 loss in South Florida, in which they were run over for 204 yards on the ground. Miami has spun three straight covers and is 4-1 ATS of late. The underdog has the same matching record, with the Dolphins in that role each time. Four of the last six confrontations have resulted in Over’s. The Fins are 4-4 and 5-3 ATS on the road, with Pittsburgh 6-2 and 4-3-1 ATS in the Steel City.



11


NFL WILD CARD ROUND(107) NY GIANTS [SU:11-5 | ATS:8-6-2] AT (108) GREEN BAY (-4 | 44) [SU:10-6 | ATS:9-6-1]

JANUARY 8, 2017 4:40 PM on FOX - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY GIANTS 19.4 18 25-88 [3.5] 37-24-242 [6.5] 17.0 17.8 19 25-89 [3.6] 39-23-251 [6.4] 19.1 -2 +1.6 GREEN BAY 27.0 22 23-106 [4.5] 39-25-262 [6.8] 13.6 24.2 21 23-95 [4.0] 36-23-269 [7.5] 15.0 +8 +2.8

Ask anyone who are two teams you would not want to play in the postseason if you were one of the top four seeds it would be the New York Giants and Green Bay. Fortunately for them, one of them will be knocked out this round. New York has the hottest defense in the NFL right now, finishing second in fewest points allowed at 17.8 per game and the ability to take away the run or pass and create turnovers. The offense only scores 19.8 PPG, yet has big-play possibilities with Eli Manning throwing to Odell Beckham Jr. Though the Giants lost at Green Bay 23-16 back in October, Manning has won twice in the playoffs at Lambeau Field and with New York’s defense and Beckham facing continually depleted secondary, the G-Men have a real shot.

We have heard time and again about Aaron Rodgers making statements and the most impressive aspect about what he says is he raises his level of play to back up what he states. Nobody has rushed for as many yards against the Giants No. 4 run defense as Green Bay (147) and this really is the most important offensive aspect for the Packers to get the New York defense off balance. The Green Bay defense has to continue to make the Giants No.29 rush offense insignificant and pressure Manning into bad throws, to see if they can build on his interception total of 16. Best matchup of the weekend.

GAME TRENDS• NY GIANTS is 12-3 ATS(L15G) - In Playoff Games• GREEN BAY is 4-8-2 ATS(L14G) at HOME - In January• GREEN BAY is 9-3 UNDER(L2Y) at HOME - Conference games STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?107 NY GIANTS 44 25.5 20.5 19.7 22.2 OVER108 GREEN BAY -4 28.0 -5.3 24.3 24.0 27.1 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNIf Green Bay has a nemesis outside their division, the Giants are that team. The Packers have not beat the spread against New York since 2010 (0-4-1 ATS) and is 1-6-1 ATS versus Big Blue in the past 12 years. The Packers won earlier game 23-16 as a touchdown home favorite, but have lost two previous playoff games as favorites to the G-Men. The home team has mostly controlled the action at 4-1-1 ATS, after the visitor was 5-0 ATS from 1998 to 2008. The Giants are .500 SU and ATS outside New Jersey, with the Pack 6-2 SU and ATS at Lambeau. The Under has rattled off three consecutive winners.


12




CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP(151) CLEMSON [SU:13-1 | ATS:7-7] VS (152) ALABAMA (-6.5 | 51.5) [SU:14-0 | ATS:10-4]

JANUARY 9, 2017 8:00 PM on ESPN - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEMSON (3) 39.5 26 39-175 [4.4] 41-27-327 [8.0] 12.7 17.1 17 35-123 [3.5] 32-17-184 [5.7] 18.0 +1 +22.4 ALABAMA (1) 39.4 21 43-249 [5.7] 27-18-212 [7.7] 11.7 11.4 13 31-62 [2.0] 32-17-182 [5.6] 21.4 +8 +28.0

The thought in the preseason was Clemson and Alabama were probably the best two teams in college football and on paper should meet again, but that never happens right? Lo and behold, the facts played out and we have anticipated rematch.

As we go to release Alabama is again a 6.5-point favorite like how last year’s game closed. Anyone following college football knows this is one of the best defenses we have seen in college football, which is made that much greater because of the diversity we see in today’s game. After Washington scored a touchdown, it became almost impossible for them to get a first down, let alone threaten to score again. While announcers say the Tide lacks the defensive line depth of last year and secondary will give up big plays, they still have allowed 11.4 PPG versus opponents that have averaged over 30 PPG and cashed in on 11 defensive touchdowns. Even with this defense, QB Jalen Hurts has to play better than he did against Washington, because Clemson will score points.

Last season Clemson was the up and comer, not this year. The Tigers are an elite football program fueled with the belief they should have beaten Alabama last year and this team is better prepared for the big moment. In spite of Hurts obvious abilities, Deshaun Watson is the better quarterback in this game and he has even more playmakers than the team that hung 40 on vaunted Bama defense last year. Clemson just shutout Ohio State, something nobody has done in 23 years and seeing the problems Alabama had passing, it is a given they Tigers will be hell-bent on containing RB Bo Scarbrough and make Hurts a thrower. For Clemson to engineer upset, they might be their biggest foe. Only twice all year did they play a game without a turnover.

GAME TRENDS• CLEMSON is 16-6 ATS(L5Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS)• CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS(L11G) - VS AP top 5• ALABAMA is 8-3 UNDER(L2Y) - Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)• CLEMSON is 8-3 UNDER(L2Y) - Against good teams with 80%+ winning pct(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?151 CLEMSON 51.5 67.5 22.4 22.7 22.0 152 ALABAMA -6.5 77.0 -9.5 30.5 28.3 31.5 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNWe have a rematch from last year’s title game, won by Alabama 45-40 as 6.5 point favorites, handily surpassing the total of 50.5. The Crimson Tide also won previous matchup in season opener in 2008, 34-10 as the No.24 ranked team, being four-point neutral site underdogs to then No. 9 Tigers. In fact, the Tide has rolled to 13 consecutive victories over Clemson (13-2 all-time). The Tigers are 11-1 and 4-8 ATS against other bowl teams, with Alabama 11-0 and 9-2 ATS against postseason participants.



13


VI Jim says…Clearly the decision by Alabama to let OC Lane Kiffin leave for FAU before this national title game was noteworthy, I just disagree with most so-called experts on what affect it will have on the Tide against Clemson. Let’s face it, the offense didn’t look right in the semifinal win over Washington. It looked vanilla, far from dynamic, almost as if Kiffin had already checked out. I think there will be a much higher level of confidence with Steve Sarkisian calling the show, as he is the future of Alabama’s offensive strategy and clearly has the trust of Nick Saban already. I also believe this game is more about Alabama’s defense anyway, quite possibly one of the best units of all-time in college football. They held teams about 19 points below their averages for the season. Using that math, Clemson would be projected for 20, but I think that amount is even too high considering how dominant the Tide was versus Washington. When this defense gets on a roll, watch out: ALABAMA is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3.25 or less YPP in their previous game over the L2 seasons.The average score was ALABAMA 39.7, OPPONENT 13.3. I like this Clemson team, we are just in the midst of a ‘Bama dynasty. Alabama wins it 34-20.

VI Jason says…It looks like I will be the only one of the three VI experts that is backing Clemson in the national title game. I simply can’t overlook the affect HC Dabo Swinney has on this team, especially when they are faced with the long odds of beating a “better’ team. His teams are a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS in bowl games as underdogs, and coming off the complete throttling of Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. If that result didn’t open up people’s eyes to what this team is capable of, I don’t know what it would take. Swinney just has a way of motivating his team when it comes to big games: CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season over the L2 seasons. The average score was CLEMSON 38.2, OPPONENT 25.4. In last year’s title game, QB Deshawn Watson was easily the best player on the field, as he led his team to 40 points and 550 yards of offense against ‘Bama. Now a year older and wiser, he seems fully ready to take the next step. Alabama’s offense has struggled this year against good teams too, and with Lane Kiffin having moved on, I don’t see it getting any better. Clemson wins this year 24-20.

VI Doug says…Similar to last year, I really would like to see Clemson win this game, which would lead to them covering the spread. However, I just cannot do that. This is the best college football defense in memory, being able to take everything away from the opposition. They have tremendous skill at all three levels of defense, which makes it almost impossible to put together long drives against them and they seem to adjust quickly if anyone moves the ball on them like Washington did early. My biggest concern about Clemson is turnovers, having made them in all but two games this season. With all the ways the Alabama has scored this season, on mistake that turns into immediate score can be the difference in the game. The Tide rolls and wins by 9.

VI Jim 88-77 (53%) 29-20 (59%)*

VI Jason 90-75 (55%) 28-22 (56%)*

VI Doug 76-89 (46%) 23-28 (45%)*

Power Ratings80-85 (48%)

Effective Strength 69-96 (42%)

Forecaster 71-94 (43%)

Bettors Ratings 88-77 (53%)

Consensus 77-88 (47%)

Monday, January 9, 2017 - (151) CLEMSON vs. (152) ALABAMA (-6.5)Alabama* Clemson* Alabama* Alabama Alabama Clemson Alabama Alabama

Monday, January 9, 2017 - (151) ALABAMA vs. (152) CLEMSON - TOTAL (51.5)OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

weekly football tip sheet - VegasInsider.com · CFB – Monday (151) CLEMSON vs. (152) ALABAMA 8:00...

Documents

Transcript of weekly football tip sheet - VegasInsider.com · CFB – Monday (151) CLEMSON vs. (152) ALABAMA 8:00...