Weekly Commodity Trading Tips For Beginner Trader

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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Trading Tips For Beginner Trader

  • 27 JAN 30 JAN 2015

    W E E K L Y







    Blow by Blow



    Base metals,



  • MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures are trading sideways today though the COMEX futures linger below

    $1300 perounce mark. Prices have come off their five month highs. Sharp gains in US

    dollar havecapped gold this week. Safe-haven demand propped up the metal last

    week as a break above$1200 per ounce extended following the surprising news that

    Swiss National Bank abruptlyabandoned the Swiss franc's peg to Euro. This week, the

    traders are booking profits afterprices soared 10% in first three weeks of 2014. Even

    the much touted ECB QuantitativeEasing decision is not helping gold much. COMEX

    Gold is trading at $1297.10 per ounce,down $3.60 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold

    futures are quoting at Rs 28055 per 10 grams, upRs 19 per 10 grams on the day.

    The US dollar is quoting near a fresh 11 year high around 1.1300 against the Euro.

    ECBPresident Mario Draghi said yesterday that the central bank would make monthly

    bondpurchases of as much as 60 billion Euros starting in March, and running through

    Septemberof next year. Draghi's announcement came after the ECB held benchmark

    rates unchanged atrecord lows. This has boosted stocks around the globe and the

    European indices are tradingaround with gains of around 1.5%-2%.

    Oil fell to the lowest in almost six years on speculation the death of King Abdullah of

    Saudi Arabia wont signal any change in strategy for the worlds largest crude


    U.S. benchmark oil futures slid 1.6 percent, reversing an initial gain of as much as 3.1

    percent. Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, who succeeds Abdullah on the throne, said he

    would maintain his predecessors policies. The kingdom will not cut production to

    boost prices because other producers would fill in the gap, Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin

    Talal Al Saud said. U.S. crude inventories rose the most since 2001 last week,

    according to a government report on Thursday.

    There already has been a pretty well established succession plan so its not a big

    deal, said Kyle Cooper, director of commodities research at IAF Advisors in Houston.

    Supply has been very stout and demands not been what people had expected. It

    highlights the bearish sentiment in the market.

    Oil Falls to Lowest

    Since 09 as Saudis

    Signal Continuity.

    Copper Declines

    On MCX, WBMS

    Reports Provides

    Little Support.

    The latest data release from WBMS has posted little support to Copper as prices have

    declined sharply. Moving closer to Rs 340 prices are showing limited resilience. When

    last checked, MCX Copper February expiry was trading at Rs 346.2 per kg. The prices

    have tested a high of Rs 349.5 per kg, and a low of Rs 346.2 per kg. Data from Chinese

    PMI was still disappointing as it came below 50. China with the release of the HSBC

    Flash China Manufacturing PMI which beat expectations of 49.5 with a print of 49.8.

    However the index still lingers in the contraction zone below 50. According to a data

    released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), copper was in a shortage of

    122000 tons in the first eleven months of 2014. Copper market recorded a surplus of

    283000 tons in 2013. Global consumption of copper totaled 21.05 million tons in the

    first eleven month of 2014 and the figure in 2013 was 21.04 million tons. Global

    output of refined copper totaled 2.01 million tons in November, as the consumption

    was 2.04 million tons. WBMS also mentioned that global lead was in a surplus of

    13,700 tons in the first eleven months of 2014. Lead market recorded a shortage of

    94000 tons in 2013. Global consumption of lead saw a decrease of 347,000 ton in the

    first eleven month of 2014. Global output of refined lead totaled 877,300 tons in

    November, as the consumption was 881400 tons.


    Consolidates Just

    Under $1300.

  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R


    Jan 27 7:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.7%

    7:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.9%

    7:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 4.7% 4.5%

    8:15pm Flash Services PMI 53.9 53.3

    8:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 95.7 92.6

    8:30pm New Home Sales 452K 438K

    8:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 7

    Jan 28 9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 10.1M

    Jan 29 12:30am FOMC Statement

    12:30am Federal Funds Rate

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    27545 27145 26665 28271 28690 29085

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    39040 37600 36385 40600 41975 43270

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD showed sideways to bullish

    movement, and gave breakout of

    inverse head and shoulder pattern and

    also closed above it. Now, if it is able to

    maintain above 28300 then upward

    movement will expected and next

    resistance level is seen around 29100.

    On other hand if it sustains below

    27500 then bearish movement may

    drag it towards the next support level

    of 26500.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

    above 28300 for the target of 29000

    with stop loss of 27450.


    G O L D


    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

    upward movement last week, and

    closed above its important resistance

    of 39200. Now, if it maintains above

    40600 then next resistance is seen in

    the range of 42500-43000. On lower

    side sustains below 38800 will drag it

    to support level of 38000 below which

    again brears may active and find next

    support around 35700.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to buy above 40600 for

    the targets of 42000-43000, with stop

    loss of 38800.

  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    2750 2600 2450 3140 3440 3730

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    340 320 310 351 360.85 370

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper last week showed bearish

    movement and not able to maintains

    above 23.6% retracement level and

    again drag to its recent low of 341.

    Now if it sustain below 340 then again

    bearishness will drag it towards next

    important support level of 330. On the

    other hand if some correction occur

    on higher side then immediate

    resistance is seen around 352.50.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

    sell on highs for the target of 2500, with

    stop loss of 3150.


    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Crude oil last week showed

    bearish movement and break the

    important support of 2870 and closed

    below it. Now, the next immediate

    important support level is seen around

    2750 if it sustain below this level, then

    next support level is seen around 2550.

    On the other hand if it maintains above

    3000 then 3140 will act as major

    resistance level.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    below 340, with stop loss of 355 for the

    target of 330.