Weekly commodity tips & news

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  • 22 JUNE 26 JUNE 2015

    \

    W E E K L Y

    R

    E

    P

    O

    R

    T

    Blow by Blow

    On

    Bullions,

    Base metals,

    Energy

    WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

    WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

  • MAJOR EVENTS Gold is trading steady today after gaining impressively in the last session. A modest

    uptick in US dollar and further rise in US equities capped the metal after a slightly

    dovish view of the US Fed took it to a three week high. Bargain buying lifted the metal

    sharply as the Fed noted that US economic activity has been expanding moderately

    after having changed little during the first quarter. The Fed also stated that growth in

    household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some

    improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. This

    kept the US dollar under stress and boosted gold.

    The yellow metal has been facing constant pressure this week though the recent

    surge has ensured that counter extends rally from a two and half month low. Reduced

    speculative demand is also hitting the metal after prices tested their two and half

    month lows at the start of this month. A mixed undertone is being seen equities right

    now and COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1199 per ounce, down 0.25% on the

    day. MCX Gold futures for August are trading at Rs 27145 per 10 grams, down 0.04%

    on the day. MCX Silver futures are trading at Rs 36850 per kg, down 0.11% on the day.

    Crude oil may move in range amid mixed fundamentals as EIA inventory data today

    will give further direction to the prices. Overall it can move in range of 3800-3900 in

    MCX, as per SMC Global report. MCX Crude Oil June contract was trading up by 0.21

    per cent to 3857 levels on Wednesday(11.57am).U.S. crude prices rose on Tuesday as

    a tropical storm moved ashore in the oil-producing state of Texas, but global

    oversupply limited gains and pressured Brent futures. Gasoline stocks are expected to

    be down 300,000 barrels.

    A crude oil drop would be a seventh consecutive draw recorded by the government,

    with the next Energy Information Administration report due on Wednesday at 10:30

    a.m. EDT. Tropical Storm Bill went ashore on the Texas Gulf Coast and is expected to

    bring heavy rains and strong winds. Last year, active oil rigs were at 1,536. This means

    the current oil rigs are 59% lower than the levels last year. OPEC's (Organization of

    the Petroleum Exporting Countries) largest crude oil producer is Saudi Arabia. It

    continued to produce more than 10 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May 2015.

    MCX Crude Oil

    may move in

    range amid mixed

    fundamentals.

    Olympic Dam Mine

    Resumes Copper

    Production, Prices

    Already Rolling

    Lower.

    BHP Billiton Olympic Dam mine has started the Copper production 2 months ahead of

    schedule that is set to keep already bearish prices of Copper under check. The prices

    of Copper has been trading at a three months low on COMEX as the worries from

    ailing demand from China and lack of support from US policy makers tumbled hopes

    for recovery.

    The Federal Reserve is all set to move towards rate hikes that will suck the liquidity

    from the riskier assets like Copper. It would be the first increase since the rate was cut

    to near zero during the 2008 financial crisis. However, the bank said conditions in the

    labour market and inflation did not yet warrant an increase.

    Coming to the news of BHP Billiton, a forecast 60,000 to 70,000 metric tons of output

    has been lost as repairs after the electric failure in January. The news is set to add the

    woes to the recovery in Copper as the streamlining of production will increase the

    supplies.

    Indian Copper prices have seen a decline of 1.5% today and were sulking at Rs 361.2

    per kg. The prices declined to Rs 360.4 per kg and a high of Rs 368.7.

    COMEX Gold Off

    Three Week

    High, Dollar

    Recovers A Bit.

  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

    DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

    June 22 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.29M 5.04M

    June 23 5:30pm FOMC Member Powell Speaks

    6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.2%

    6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.5% -1.0%

    6.30pm HPI m/m 0.6% 0.3%

    7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.2 54.0

    7:30pm New Home Sales 521K 517K

    7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 1 1

    June 24 6:00pm Final GDP q/q -0.2% -0.7%

    6:00pm Final GDP Price Index q/q -0.1% -0.1%

    8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.7

    June 25 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 271K 267K

    6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%

    6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.7% 0.0%

    6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.6% 0.4%

    7:15pm Flash Services PMI 56.5 56.2

    8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 89B

    June 26 7:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 94.6 94.6

    7:30pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    26710 26490 26235 27325 27685 28100

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    36250 35590 34885 37500 38065 38765

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD showed sideways

    movement, and found the resistance

    of upper band of symmetrical triangle

    pattern and closed near to 27000.

    Now, if it is able to sustain below

    26700 then next major support level is

    seen in the range of 26500-26400. On

    other hand maintaining above 27325

    bullish movement may move it

    towards the resistance range of 27500-

    27750.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

    above 27350 for the target of 27650-

    28000 with stop loss of 26700.

    PIVOT TABLE

    G O L D

    PIVOT TABLE

    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

    sideways movement and found the

    support of trendline and closed near to

    support level of 36500. Now, if it

    sustain below 36000 then next support

    range may seen at 35500-35000. On

    higher side maintaing above 37500 will

    again pull it towards the resistance

    level of 38500.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to sell below 36000 for

    the target of 35000, with stop loss of

    37500.

  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    3715 3570 3425 3880 4000 4215

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    368.80 360.20 350.85 381 391.25 400.65

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper last week showed

    negative movement and closed near

    to its support level of 357. Now, if it

    sustain below 357 on lower side then

    next important support level is seen

    around 348 below which it may drag

    upto support level of 340. On the

    other hand if some corrrection

    happens then 370 will act as

    important resistance level.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

    sell below 3750 for the target of 3625-

    3500, with stop loss of 4000.

    PIVOT TABLE

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Crude oil last week showed

    sideways movement and took support

    of trendline at 3770. Now, if it

    maintains above 4000 in coming

    sessions then next important

    resistance level is seen around 4200.

    On the other hand sustaining below

    3750 will again breach it to support

    level of 3625.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    below 357, with stop loss of 373 for the

    target of 348-340.

    PIVOT TABLE

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