15 DEC – 19 DEC 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

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Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS Gold prices fell for a third day as gains for the U.S. economy cut demand for the metal

as a haven. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary December index

of consumer sentiment increased to 93.8 from 88.8 last month. That beat economists’

projections. Bullion also declined today as crude futures retreated, cutting demand for

gold as a hedge against rising consumer costs.Futures slumped to a four-year low in

November as U.S. growth accelerated, equities rallied and the dollar climbed. Gains

for the labor markets are increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve is getting

closer to raising interest rates, reducing the allure of gold, which generally offers

investors returns through increasing prices. Gold futures for February delivery

dropped 0.3 percent to settle at $1,222.50 an ounce at 1:53 p.m. on the Comex in

New York. Prices touched $1,130.40 on Nov. 7, the lowest since 2010. The U.S. central

bank will gather Dec. 16-17 as policy makers debate the timing of the first interest-

rate increase in eight years.Futures climbed 70 percent from December 2008 to June

2011 as the Fed bought debt and held borrowing costs near zero percent in a bid to

shore up economic growth. The metal tumbled 28 percent last year as some investors

lost faith in the metal as a store of value.

Benchmark U.S. oil prices extended losses below $58 a barrel as the International

Energy Agency cut its global demand forecast for the fourth time in five months.

West Texas Intermediate crude capped a weekly decline of 12 percent while Brent

lost 10 percent. The IEA reduced its estimate for oil demand growth in 2015 by

230,000 barrels a day, the agency said in a report today. U.S. output, already at a

three-decade high, will continue to rise in 2015, the IEA said.

Both benchmarks have collapsed about 20 percent since Nov. 26, the day before the

Org. of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to leave its production limit unchanged

at 30 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, the group’s three biggest

members, this month deepened discounts on shipments to Asia, bolstering

speculation that they’re fighting for market share.WTI for January delivery dropped

$2.14, or 3.6 percent, to $57.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the

lowest settlement since May 2009. Total volume was 40 percent above the 100-day

average for the time of day. Prices are down 46 percent from this year’s highest close

of $107.26 on June 20 and are approaching a 50 percent drop to $53.63.

Crude Oil Extends

Drop Below $58 as

IEA Cuts Forecast.

Nickel Climbs

After Chinese

Lending Data

Boosts Outlook.

Nickel rose, snapping five sessions of losses, after gains for lending fueled speculation

that demand will prove resilient in China, the world’s top metals user.

Aggregate financing last month expanded to the highest since June, the nation’s

central bank said today. The LMEX Index of the six main metals traded in London has

declined 4.1 percent this year amid concern that slowing growth in China would cut

demand.

Nickel for delivery in three months added 2.4 percent to settle at $16,675 a metric ton

at 5:51 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, gaining for the first time since Dec. 4.

Prices fell 4.9 percent in the previous five sessions.

The metal has climbed 20 percent this year after ore-shipment restrictions in

Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of unrefined nickel. Prices may extend the rally

into 2015 amid reduced Chinese output of nickel pig iron, a lower-grade alternative to

refined metal, according to CLSA Ltd.Also on the LME, copper for delivery in three

months increased 0.4 percent to $6,490 a ton ($2.94 a pound). Lead also gained, while

aluminum and zinc fell.

Gold Drops for

Third Day as U.S.

Growth Cuts

Haven Demand.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Dec 15 7:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 12.1 10.2

7:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 79.4% 78.9%

7:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.8% -0.1%

8:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 59 58

Dec 16 2:30am TIC Long-Term Purchases 72.8B 164.3B

7:00pm Building Permits 1.06M 1.08M

7:00pm Housing Starts 1.04M 1.01M

8:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.1 54.8

Dec 17 7:00pm CPI m/m -0.1% 0.0

7:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%

7:00pm Current Account -98B -99B

9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M

Dec 18 12:30am FOMC Economic Projections

12:30am FOMC Statement

12:30am Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%

1:00am FOMC Press Conference

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 297K 294K

8:15pm Flash Services PMI 57.1 56.2

8:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 26.3 40.8

8:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.6% 0.9%

9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -51B

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

27000 26560 26130 27475 27825 28180

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

37850 36700 35340 39200 40470 41530

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed sudden bullish

movement in the mid session of the

week and able to maintain above

27000 and also closed above the

trendline. Now, if it is able to maintain

above 27500 then next resistance level

is seen around 28000. On other hand if

it sustaining below 27000 then again

drag it towards the next support level

of 26500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

on dips for the targets of 28000 with

stop loss of 25900.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

bullish movement in this week and

found resistance around 39000 and

near to its important resistance level

i.e. 39500. Now, if it maintains on

higher levels above 40000 then trend

may reverted on higher side. On lower

side sustaining below 37800 will again

drag it towards the support level of

36500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 40000 for

the target of 42000, with stop loss of

37500.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

3540 3300 3000 3860 4160 4525

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

406.70 397.85 389.80 415.25 422.55 429.60

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed bullish

movement and closed around upper

band of downward channel pattern.

Now, immediate resistance is seen

near 413.50 above which 418 is act as

strong resistance, if it is closed above

this resistance then breakout of

channel pattern is expected and may

find next resistance at 423. On lower

side 403 is act as support for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell below 3500 for the target of 3300,

with stop loss of 3750.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

downward movement and break its

important support level i.e. 4000 and

close near to its important support

level of 3500. Now, if it sustain below

3500 then next support level is seen

around physiological level of 3100. If

some correction occurs and maintains

above 4000 then 4300 will act as

major resistance for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

on dips, with stop loss of 395 for the

target of 423.

PIVOT TABLE

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