Weekly Commodity Tips for Gold Trading

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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Tips for Gold Trading

  • 20 JULY 24 JULY 2015

    \

    W E E K L Y

    R

    E

    P

    O

    R

    T

    Blow by Blow

    On

    Bullions,

    Base metals,

    Energy

    WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

  • MAJOR EVENTS COMEX Gold slumped near lowest levels in last one year as strong US economic data

    hurt the metal. The commodity has been under stress on weak Indian demand and

    strength in the US dollar this week. Indias Gold imports dropped by almost 37% to

    $1.96 billion in June and most of the traders do not expect any pick up in the Indian

    demand. Imports of the precious metal stood at $3.12 billion in the same month of

    2014. Positive developments in Greece are supporting stocks around the globe.

    COMEX Gold quotes at $1135 per ounce, down 0.70% on the day. MCX Gold futures

    are trading at Rs 25583 per 10 grams, down 0.73%on the day. MCX Silver futures are

    trading at Rs 34244 per kg, down 0.75% on the day as the global prices linger around

    their six year lows. Dollar is quoting around 1.0864 against the Euro - its six week high

    mark. The Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing significant

    increases in both US housing starts and building permits in the month of June. The

    report said housing starts jumped9.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.174 million in

    June from the revised May estimate of1.069 million. Building permits, an indicator of

    future housing demand, also surged up 7.4percent to an annual rate of 1.343 million

    in June from the revised May rate of 1.125million.

    MCX Crude oil futures drifted lower yet again as the WTI crude futures slipped in red.

    The commodity has been reeling under pressure after testing its four month lows as

    hope of rising global supplies after the Iran deal weighed on the sentiments. Oil is

    also eying the recent uptick in US dollar. Dollar gained after losing initially on the

    Greece debt deal though the single currency gained handsomely to quote under

    1.0900 mark against the Euro after a sharp rally in US stocks this week. These are the

    highest levels in six weeks for the greenback. WTI futures dropped under $51 per

    barrel as stocks wavered in Europe as German lawmakers geared to vote on whether

    to approve the plan for a third bailout for Greece. MCX Crude oil futures are trading

    at Rs 3229 per barrel, down 0.80% on the day. The demand scenario for oil remains

    unenthusiastic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Monday

    it revised down the demand for its crude this year, to a level far below its current

    output. In its closely watched monthly oil-market report, OPEC lowered its projection

    for 2015 by about 100,000 barrels a day, to 29.2 million a day. Thats more than 2

    million a day less than the groups 12 members pumped last month.

    WTI Crude Slides

    Under $51 Amid

    Broad Demand

    Worries.

    Base Metals may

    trade lower on

    Greece factor;

    China may offer

    respite.

    Greece impasse has had its effect on global markets. Base metal prices may trade

    lower in July as Greece impasse is all set for a new set of twists and turns as last

    deadline of reform approval by Athens nears. However, a temporary respite to prices

    will be provided by recovery in Chinese markets after regulators instructed all major

    shareholders who sold stock over the past six months to reverse course, adding that

    they should increase their holdings by at least 10 per cent of the amount of the

    original reduction.

    Copper prices will likely trade with a negative bias as supply glut will be the persistent

    major cause of concern as production does not seem to ease from China given cost

    benefits. Also, Chiles rising production and weakness in global demand will exert

    pressure on prices. Aluminium prices to trade lower in July15 as swelling Chinese

    exports exerted further pressure on the market following which Japan's aluminium

    premiums for July-September shipments were mostly set at a six-year low of $100

    from a May offer of $130-160 versus an April-June premium of $380. Chinese output

    also ceases to trend down as currency benefits and cheaper inputs have allowed most

    smelters to stay out of the red.

    Gold Nears One

    Year Low After

    Strong US

    Housing Data.

  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

    DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

    July 22 6:30pm HPI m/m 0.5% 0.3%

    7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.40M 5.35M

    8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -4.3M

    July 23 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 285K 281K

    7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.1% 0.7%

    8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 99B

    July 24 7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.6

    7:30pm New Home Sales 543K 546K

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    25400 25150 24800 25750 26050 26350

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    33800 32800 31500 35000 36000 37000

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD showed downward

    movement, and broke the trendline on

    lower side and gave closing below

    25500 on weekly chart after four years.

    Now, if it is able to sustain below

    25500 then next major support level is

    seen in the range of 25000-24500. On

    other hand if some correction happens

    then 26000 will act as important

    resistance level, maintaining above

    next resistance level is 26500.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

    below 25400 for the targets of 24800-

    24500 with stop loss of 26100.

    PIVOT TABLE

    G O L D

    PIVOT TABLE

    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

    bearish movement and traded in

    between channel pattern and not able

    to break its important resistance level

    i.e. 36000 and again breached support

    level of 34000. Now, if it sustains

    below 34000 then next support is seen

    at 32500. On higher side if correction

    happens then 35600 will act as

    important resistance level.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to sell below 34000 for

    the targets of 33000-32500, with stop

    loss of 35700.

  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    3130 2950 2780 3315 3485 3625

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    346.90 338.60 330 359.50 368 376.65

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper last week showed

    downward movement and broke its

    important support level of 353 and

    closed below it. Now, if it sustain

    below 350 on lower side then next

    important support level is seen around

    340. On the other hand if correction

    happens and maintains above 366

    then next important resistance will be

    seen around 380.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

    sell below 3175 for the targets of 3000-

    2900, with stop loss of 3450.

    PIVOT TABLE

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Crude oil last week showed

    sideways to bearish movement and

    broke its important support level of

    3225 and also closed below it. Now, if

    it sustain below 3200 in coming

    sessions then next important support

    level is seen around 3000. On the other

    hand maintaining above 3450 will

    again pull its towards resistance level

    of 3625.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    below 350, with stop loss of 370 for the

    target of 340-335.

    PIVOT TABLE

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