Weekly Commodity Tips For Active Traders

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  1. 1. 13 APRIL 17 APRIL 2015W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
  2. 2. MAJOR EVENTS Gold bounced back with sharp gains on short covering, technical buying and amid geopolitical crisis in Yemen. The COMEX Gold for June delivery sustained above $1200 per ounce helped the yellow metal to continue gain on Friday.Gold moved higher, despite the strong dollar. Gold off the recent near one month highs during the week as traders eyed the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Several Federal Reserve officials thought that the US central bank would be able to raise interest rates in June, according to minutes from the March meeting. Worries over Indian demand also kept sentiments under check.The dollar was on track for its first weekly rise in a month on Friday as jobless claims data eased concern about the U.S. labour market and attention shifted back to the chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. The average of the claims is almost 10 year low level. The Euro quotes at four week low at $1.0582, down 0.71% on Friday. Meanwhile, the US dollar index quotes at 99.81, up 0.56% over last close. The COMEX Gold June delivery bounced from one week low level and quotes at $1,204.20 an ounce, up $10.60 and the Silver May delivery recovered from yesterday's three week low level and quotes at $16.520 an ounce, up 34 cents per ounce. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that US natural gas stocks increased by 15 billion cubic feet for the week ending April 3. The five-year average for the week is a 2 billion cubic foot withdrawal, and last year's drawdown totalled 8 billion cubic feet. Demand for heating is expected to be low for the rest of this week and into the first part of next week. Cold air from Canada is not expected to push into the United States, although some cooler weather is forecast for the Northwest and the Northeast. Stockpiles are about 78.9% above their levels of a year ago and about 10.5% below the five-year average. The working stocks of natural gas totaled about 1.48 trillion cubic feet, around 173 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1.65 trillion cubic feet and 651 billion cubic feet above last year's total for the same period. Working gas in storage totaled 825 billion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.The peak demand season for natural gas runs from November through March. Last week marks the first inventory build since last October. As storage injections begin, producers and traders will keep an eye on storage capacity. US Natural Gas Inventories Up 78% Over Year. Copper Fortunes Linked with Chinese Economy and Data Set. Copper prices are trading in a non-volatile fashion with fortunes now getting linked to Chinese economic data. When last checked MCX Copper was trading at Rs 379.40 per kg, up 0.82%. The prices tested a high of Rs 380.65 per kg, and a low of Rs 377.90 per kg.China's economy probably cooled further to grow 7 percent in the first three months as per the polls conducted by market agencies. On the supply side, Chile's Codelco said that operations at its smallest mine will progressively restart on April 20 after torrential downpours forced the world's No. 1 copper producer to halt them.China reported that the unwrought Copper and Copper products imports reached 283000 tonnes in the month of February 2015 against 410000 tonnes in January, down 31% on a monthly basis. The data also mentioned that on a yearly basis, imports of Copper were down by 25.3% from 3790000 tonnes in the month of February 2013.Meanwhile, Copper ores and concentrates imports were 758000 tonnes in the month of February 2015 compared to 928000 in the month of January 2015, marking a decline of 18.3% on a monthly basis.If the Federal Reserve delays the rate hikes and as expected by the trading community, Copper can witness fast revival. Fed officials have expressed concern about the effects of the strong dollar, which is weighing on the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Gold Recovers Above $1200 On Technical Buying.
  3. 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Apr 14 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7% -0.1% 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.2% -0.5% 6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 1.1% -0.6% 6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.1% -0.5% 6:30pm NFIB Small Business Index 98.4 98.0 7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.0% Apr 15 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 7.0 6.9 6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 78.7% 78.9% 6:45pm Industrial Production m/m -0.2% 0.1% 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 55 53 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 10.9M 11:30pm Beige Book Apr 16 1:30am TIC Long-Term Purchases 23.4B -27.2 5:00am FOMC Member Lacker Speaks Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings 6:00pm Building Permits 1.08M 1.10M 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 284K 281K 6:00pm Housing Starts 1.04M 0.90M 7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 5.5 5.0 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 15B 10:30pm FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks Apr 17 12:30am FOMC Member Fischer Speaks Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings 6:00pm CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2% 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2% 7:30pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.8 93.0 7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.3% 0.2% 7:30pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.0% Day 1 ALL IMF Meetings Apr 18 Day 2 ALL IMF Meetings
  4. 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 26460 28080 25720 27100 27450 27850 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 36085 35300 34500 37350 38200 39100 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD showed sideways movement, and took the support of 26500 but not able to sustain below it and closed around its important resistance level of 26750. Now, if it is able to maintain above 26750 then next major resistance level is seen in the range of 27000-27250. On other hand sustaining below 26500 bearish movement may drag it towards the support level of 26000. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 26850 for the targets of 27250 with stop loss of 26150. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER on daily charts showed bearish movement last week and gave breakout of 37000 on lower side and took the support of 36000. Now, if it sustain below 37000 then next support is seen in the range of 35500-35000. On higher side maintaining above 38000 will again pull it towards the resistance level of 39200. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 36000 for the target of 35000-34500, with stop loss of 37500.
  5. 5. C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 3115 2950 2780 3280 3380 3550 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 374.85 365.20 357.30 385.10 392.45 400 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper last week showed sideways movement and closed below its important support level of 380. Now, if it sustsain below 371 then next support will be seen in the range of 363-360. On the other hand if it maintains above the resistance level of 385 then it will lead towards the resistance level of 400. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the targets of 2950-2850, with stop loss of 3400. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Crude oil last week showed sideways to bullish movement, and took the important resistance of 3350 but not able to closed above it. Now, if it maintains above 3350 in coming sessions then next important resistance level is seen around 3500. On the other hand if it sustains below 3100 then again it will drag towards the support level of 2850. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 371, with stop loss of 386 for the targets of 360-358. PIVOT TABLE