Weekly Commodity Tips And News

6
01 SEP 05 SEP 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Tips And News

Page 1: Weekly Commodity Tips And News

01 SEP – 05 SEP 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Weekly Commodity Tips And News

MAJOR EVENTS

MCX Gold futures witnessed good gains today as the global prices edged up amid

continued bargain buying. Renewed worries on the Ukraine front helped boost thes

entiments. Steady to weak trend in global equities followed by a slight weakness in

the US dollar is helping gold come over its recent losses. Stocks in Europe dropped

and safe haven buying picked up as Ukraine stated today thatRussian forces have

seized the coastal town of Novoazovsk and several villages near theborder with

Russia, part of a wider assault yet again. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called

for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council and the European

Council to respond to what he called the incursion of Russian forces. This pepped up

gold, which has been trying hard to recover from its two month lows. Chinese demand

worries had escalated selling pressure in gold over last few days. China's gold imports

from Hong Kong in July fell by 42% from a month earlier, according tothe Hong Kong

Census and Statistics Department today, media reports quoted. As per the latest Gold

Demand Trends report released by World Gold Council, world gold demand for

Q22014 was 964 tonnes, down 16% year on year from 1,148 tonnes, central bank

purchases rose28 % year on year, to 118 tonnes from 92 tonnes.

West Texas Intermediate crude capped the first weekly gain in more than a month on

speculation an improving U.S. economy will boost fuel demand. Prices rose for a

fourth day after touching a seven-month low on Aug. 25. U.S. consumer confidence

rose in August, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final sentiment index

showed today. The economy expanded more than previously forecast in the second

quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Brent gained on escalating

tension between Ukraine and Russia.

“Economic numbers continue to point to a slowly improving economic picture, and it

means better fuel demand,”.The market kind of overextended itself when it slid to

the seven-month low. We do have new concern surrounding the fighting going on in

Ukraine.” WTI for October delivery advanced $1.41, or 1.5 percent, to $95.96 a barrel

on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing since Aug. 20. It was up 2.5

percent this week. The volume of all futures traded was about 5.9 percent above the

100-day average. Prices have declined 2.3 percent in August, a second consecutive

monthly loss.

WTI Crude Oil

Caps First Weekly

Gain in Six on

Economy.

Aluminum Sets

Record Run of

Monthly Gains as

Supplies Shrink.

Aluminum posted its longest-ever run of monthly advances as faster U.S. expansion

added to signs of rising metals demand amid shrinking inventories.The U.S. economy,

the world’s largest, grew more than previously forecast in the second quarter,

government data showed yesterday. Orders for durable goods jumped in July by the

most on record as bookings surged for commercial aircraft, the Commerce

Department said Aug. 26. A standard Boeing 747 jumbo jet contains about 75 metric

tons of aluminum.

Prices have surged 16 percent this year as stockpiles tracked by the London Metal

Exchange fell to a two-year low. Demand has climbed as carmakers including Ford

Motor Co. use aluminum to replace heavier steel. U.S. automobile sales are near an

eight-year high, according to Ward’s Automotive Group.“This move toward making

cars more economic and light is maintaining healthy demand,” Supporting economic

news this week is what attracted traders into aluminum. Aluminum for delivery in

three months climbed 0.7 percent to settle at $2,096.50 a ton at 5:50 p.m. on the LME,

after touching $2,119.50, the highest since February 2013. Prices capped a seventh

straight monthly gain, the longest streak since records began in 1987.

Gold Rallies As

Ukraine Worries

Take Centre

Stage Yet Again.

Page 3: Weekly Commodity Tips And News

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Sep 01 All Day Bank Holiday

Sep 02 7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 58.0 58.0

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.0 57.1

7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.9% -1.8%

7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.2 44.5

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 59.0 59.5

Sep 03 7:30pm Factory Orders m/m 10.9% 1.1%

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.5M 16.5M

11:30pm Beige Book

Sep 04 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 24.4%

5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 216K 218K

6:00pm Trade Balance -42.5B -41.5B

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 298K 298K

6:00pm Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.5% 2.5%

6:00pm Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 0.6% 0.6%

7:15pm Final Services PMI 58.5 58.5

7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.3 58.7

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 75B

8:30pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.1M

10:00pm FOMC Member Mester Speaks

Sep 05 4:30am FOMC Member Powell Speaks

5:45am FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

6:30am FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 222K 209K

6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.2%

6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.0%

Sep 06 7:45pm FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Page 4: Weekly Commodity Tips And News

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

27700 27380 27150 28285 28590 28895

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

42480 41660 40900 43730 44580 45410

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed sideways

movement in whole week, and traded

around the trendline and near to its

important support of 27700. Now, if it

sustain below 38.2% retracement then

next support is seen in the range of

27380-26980. On other hand if it

traded above the 28300 then it may

lead towards the next resistance level

of 29000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 27700 for the targets of 27000

with stop loss of 28350.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

continuous bearish movement and

traded in between of downward

channel pattern and also took support

around 61.8% retracement. Now, if this

downward movement remains active

then then next support is seen around

41000. On the other hand if it

maintains above 43000 then next

resistance level is seen around 44000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 41400 for

the targets of 40500-39500, with stop

loss of 43500.

Page 5: Weekly Commodity Tips And News

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

5750 5640 5500 5895 5980 6065

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

424.30 418.90 412.35 433.80 439.60 444.80

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed bearish

movement and took support of

trendline and also closed below 38.2%

retracement i.e. 430. Now if it sustains

below 427 then it may drag towards

strong support level at around 424. On

other hand if it maintains above 432-

433 then immidiate resistance is seen

in the range of 440-445.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

on dips for the target of 5950-6000, with

stop loss of 5630.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

correction on higher side and bounce

back from its important support level

of 5640. Now, If this correction

continues then important resistance is

seen around 5935 above which trend

reversal may seen. On other hand if

downward movement continues then

next support is seen around 5750

below it 5640 is major support level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 424, with stop loss of 435 for the

target of 415.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Weekly Commodity Tips And News

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