Weekly Commodity Tips And News

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  • 1. 01 SEP 05 SEP 2014W E E K L YREPORTBlow by BlowOnBullions,Base metals,EnergyWWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

2. MAJOR EVENTSMCX Gold futures witnessed good gains today as the global prices edged up amid continued bargain buying. Renewed worries on the Ukraine front helped boost thes entiments. Steady to weak trend in global equities followed by a slight weakness in the US dollar is helping gold come over its recent losses. Stocks in Europe dropped and safe haven buying picked up as Ukraine stated today thatRussian forces have seized the coastal town of Novoazovsk and several villages near theborder with Russia, part of a wider assault yet again. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council and the European Council to respond to what he called the incursion of Russian forces. This pepped up gold, which has been trying hard to recover from its two month lows. Chinese demand worries had escalated selling pressure in gold over last few days. China's gold imports from Hong Kong in July fell by 42% from a month earlier, according tothe Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department today, media reports quoted. As per the latest Gold Demand Trends report released by World Gold Council, world gold demand for Q22014 was 964 tonnes, down 16% year on year from 1,148 tonnes, central bank purchases rose28 % year on year, to 118 tonnes from 92 tonnes.West Texas Intermediate crude capped the first weekly gain in more than a month on speculation an improving U.S. economy will boost fuel demand. Prices rose for a fourth day after touching a seven-month low on Aug. 25. U.S. consumer confidence rose in August, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final sentiment index showed today. The economy expanded more than previously forecast in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Brent gained on escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia.Economic numbers continue to point to a slowly improving economic picture, and it means better fuel demand,.The market kind of overextended itself when it slid to the seven-month low. We do have new concern surrounding the fighting going on in Ukraine. WTI for October delivery advanced $1.41, or 1.5 percent, to $95.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing since Aug. 20. It was up 2.5 percent this week. The volume of all futures traded was about 5.9 percent above the 100-day average. Prices have declined 2.3 percent in August, a second consecutive monthly loss.WTI Crude Oil Caps First Weekly Gain in Six on Economy.Aluminum Sets Record Run of Monthly Gains as Supplies Shrink.Aluminum posted its longest-ever run of monthly advances as faster U.S. expansion added to signs of rising metals demand amid shrinking inventories.The U.S. economy, the worlds largest, grew more than previously forecast in the second quarter, government data showed yesterday. Orders for durable goods jumped in July by the most on record as bookings surged for commercial aircraft, the Commerce Department said Aug. 26. A standard Boeing 747 jumbo jet contains about 75 metric tons of aluminum.Prices have surged 16 percent this year as stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell to a two-year low. Demand has climbed as carmakers including Ford Motor Co. use aluminum to replace heavier steel. U.S. automobile sales are near an eight-year high, according to Wards Automotive Group.This move toward making cars more economic and light is maintaining healthy demand, Supporting economic news this week is what attracted traders into aluminum. Aluminum for delivery in three months climbed 0.7 percent to settle at $2,096.50 a ton at 5:50 p.m. on the LME, after touching $2,119.50, the highest since February 2013. Prices capped a seventh straight monthly gain, the longest streak since records began in 1987.Gold Rallies As Ukraine Worries Take Centre Stage Yet Again. 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUSSep 01 All DayBank HolidaySep 02 7:15pmFinal Manufacturing PMI58.058.07:30pmISM Manufacturing PMI57.057.17:30pmConstruction Spending m/m0.9%-1.8%7:30pmIBD/TIPP Economic Optimism46.244.57:30pmISM Manufacturing Prices59.059.5Sep 03 7:30pmFactory Orders m/m10.9%1.1%All DayTotal Vehicle Sales16.5M16.5M11:30pmBeige BookSep 04 5:00pmChallenger Job Cuts y/y24.4%5:45pmADP Non-Farm Employment Change216K218K6:00pmTrade Balance-42.5B-41.5B6:00pmUnemployment Claims298K298K6:00pmRevised Nonfarm Productivity q/q2.5%2.5%6:00pmRevised Unit Labor Costs q/q0.6%0.6%7:15pmFinal Services PMI58.558.57:30pmISM Non-Manufacturing PMI57.358.78:00pmNatural Gas Storage75B8:30pmCrude Oil Inventories-2.1M10:00pmFOMC Member Mester SpeaksSep 05 4:30amFOMC Member Powell Speaks5:45amFOMC Member Fisher Speaks6:30amFOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks6:00pmNon-Farm Employment Change222K209K6:00pmUnemployment Rate6.1%6.2%6:00pmAverage Hourly Earnings m/m0.2%0.0%Sep 06 7:45pmFOMC Member Plosser Speaks 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R327700 27380 27150 28285 28590 28895S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R342480 41660 40900 43730 44580 45410T E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX GOLD showed sidewaysmovement in whole week, and tradedaround the trendline and near to itsimportant support of 27700. Now, if itsustain below 38.2% retracement thennext support is seen in the range of27380-26980. On other hand if ittraded above the 28300 then it maylead towards the next resistance levelof 29000.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX GOLD is to sellbelow 27700 for the targets of 27000with stop loss of 28350.PIVOT TABLEG O L DPIVOT TABLES I L V E RT E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX SILVER on daily charts showedcontinuous bearish movement andtraded in between of downwardchannel pattern and also took supportaround 61.8% retracement. Now, if thisdownward movement remains activethen then next support is seen around41000. On the other hand if itmaintains above 43000 then nextresistance level is seen around 44000.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX SILVER at thispoint of time is to sell below 41400 forthe targets of 40500-39500, with stoploss of 43500. 5. C R U D E O I LC O P P E RS1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R35750 5640 5500 5895 5980 6065S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3424.30 418.90 412.35 433.80 439.60 444.80T E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX Copper last week showed bearishmovement and took support oftrendline and also closed below 38.2%retracement i.e. 430. Now if it sustainsbelow 427 then it may drag towardsstrong support level at around 424. Onother hand if it maintains above 432-433 then immidiate resistance is seenin the range of 440-445.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buyon dips for the target of 5950-6000, withstop loss of 5630.PIVOT TABLET E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX Crude oil last week showedcorrection on higher side and bounceback from its important support levelof 5640. Now, If this correctioncontinues then important resistance isseen around 5935 above which trendreversal may seen. On other hand ifdownward movement continues thennext support is seen around 5750below it 5640 is major support level.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX COPPER is to sellbelow 424, with stop loss of 435 for thetarget of 415.PIVOT TABLE 6. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM DISCLAIMER