28 SEP 02 OCT 2015

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W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy

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MAJOR EVENTS COMEX Gold shot up to four week highs yesterday as safe haven buying propped up

the metal amid selling pressure in global equities. Continued buying support was

witnessed in gold as traders eyed a sharp uptick in Indian Gold imports. However,

modest losses emerged in the counter today as equities recovered, ensuing that the

commodity falls under its 100 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The

commodity currently trades at $1144 per ounce, down 0.85% on the day. MCX Gold

futures for October soared above Rs 27000 per 10 grams mark yesterday amid hurried

buying but failed to hold on above the mark and ended just above Rs 26950 levels.

The selloff in the global futures today clubbed with the fact that local markets would

be open only for the evening session could pull down the MCX futures sharply in early

moves. The US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted yesterday in a public speech

that the Fed would need to tighten policy in a timely fashion, adding that delaying

could lead to abrupt moves. She reiterated the Fed's stance that the timing of the first

hike matters less than making subsequent moves gradually. Her speech came a week

after the Fed's policy-making committee voted to keep its short-term interest rate

target near zero.

Low oil prices, if sustained, could mark the beginning of a long-term drop in upstream

investment. Oil prices reflect supply and demand balances, with increasing prices

often suggesting a need for greater supply, noted the US Energy Information

Administration (EIA) in a weekly update yesterday. Greater supply, in turn, typically

requires increased investment in exploration and production (E&P) activities. Lower

prices reduce investment activity. Overlaying annual averages of the domestic first

purchase price (in real terms) on oil and gas investment reveals that upstream

investment is highly sensitive to changes in oil prices. Given the fall in oil prices that

began in mid-2014 and the relationship between oil prices and upstream investment,

it is possible that investment levels over the next several years will be significantly

lower than the previous 10-yearannual average. Oil production is a capital-intensive

industry that requires management of existing production assets and evaluation of

prospective projects often requiring years of upfront investment spending on

exploration, appraisal, and development before reserves are developed and

produced.

Weak Crude Could

Spark off Long

Term Drop In

Upstream

Investment.

Copper Static in

Evening Trades in

Domestic Markets.

MCX Copper was trading static in the evening trades. When last checked the prices

were at Rs 340.30 per kg, up 0.04%. The prices tested a high of Rs 341.95 per kg and a

low of Rs 339.60 per kg. The latest report of World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS)

has come out. As per the report, copper market recorded a surplus of 122000 ton in

January to July 2015 which follows a surplus of 298 kt in the whole of 2014.Reported

stocks fell during both June and July but remained 47 kt higher than at the end of

December 2014 No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported

stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stock pile. World mine

production in January to July 2015 was 11.05 million ton which was 3.6 per cent higher

than in the same period in 2014. Global refined production rose to 13.2 million ton up

2.6 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in

China (up 192 kt) and India (up 51 kt). Global consumption for January to July 2015

was 13103 kt compared with 13069 kt for the same months of 2014. Chinese apparent

consumption in January to July 2015 rose by 43 kt to 5337 kt which represented 47.9

per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 0.5 per cent and demand was, at

1948 kt, 0.9 per cent below the January to July 2014 total. In July 2015, refined copper

production was 1929.9 kt and consumption was 1869.2 kt.

Gold Snaps Gains

Ahead Of

Weekend.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Sep 28 2:45pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

6:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%

6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.3%

6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.4%

7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%

11:00pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Sep 29 2:30am FOMC Member Williams Speaks

6:00pm Goods Trade Balance -57.3B -59.1B

6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.1% 5.0%

7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 96.2 101.5

Sep 30 5:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 190K

7:15pm Chicago PMI 53.2 54.4

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -1.9M

Oct 1 12:30am Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

5:30am FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 2.9%

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 273K 267K

7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 53.0 53.0

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.8 51.1

7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.6% 0.7%

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 40.0 39.0

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 106B

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 17.5M 17.8M

Oct 2 12:00am FOMC Member Williams Speaks

6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.3%

6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 202K 173K

6:00pm Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.1%

7:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.9% 0.4%

11:00pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

Oct 3 8:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

26540 26140 25740 27100 27500 27850

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

35980 35160 34450 36790 37500 38200

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed bullish movement

and able to broke its important

resistance level of 38.2% retracement

i.e. 26550 and found resistance of

psychological level i.e. 27000 but not

above to maintain above it. Now, if it is

able to maintain above 27100 then

next major resistance level is around

27800. On lower side if it sustains

below 26500 then it may drag towards

the support level of 26000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 26500 for the targets of 26000-

25800 with stop loss of 27200.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week showed

sideways movement and able to closed

above 38.2% retracement i.e. 36000.

Now, if it is able to maintain above

36900 then next major resistance level

is seen in the range of 37750-38000.

On lower side if it sustains below

35500 then only it may show some

bearish movement and drag towards

34500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 37000 for

the target of 38000, with stop loss of

35500.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

2880 2735 2570 3100 3260 3420

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

335 326 315 343.70 354.65 362.50

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed bearish

movement and able to broke its

important support level of 23.6%

retracement level i.e. 348.60 and

closed below it. Now, if it sustains

below 335 on lower side then next

important support level is seen around

326. On the other hand if it maintain

above 350 then next resistance will

seen around 360.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell below 2900 for the targets of 2800-

2700, with stop loss of 3150.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil showed sideways

movement and consolidated in

between of symmetrical triangle

pattern. Now, if it maintain above 3110

in coming sessions then next

important resistance level is seen

around 3260. On the other hand

sustaining below 2900 will again drag it

towards the support level of 2800.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 335, with stop loss of 350 for the

target of 326.

PIVOT TABLE

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