Weekly Commodity Report 24 Aug
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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Report 24 Aug
24 AUG – 28 AUG 2015
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W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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MAJOR EVENTS COMEX Gold is holding in green after in a wild session which took the metal sharply
up. Global stocks got hammered today following a 2% slide in the DOW and boosted
gold further. Gold extended gains today as further evidence in favor of a tepid
economic growth in the US. An increase in US interest rates can lower real house
prices, but such a reduction could lead to a marked decline in real gross domestic
product and inflation, a top US Federal Reserve official warned on Thursday.
Monetary policy actions have sizable and significant effects on house prices in
advanced economies. That is, an increase in interest rates tends to lower real
(inflation-adjusted) house prices, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in a
speech. In a key data, the number of people who applied for US unemployment
benefits in mid-August rose for the fourth straight week, but initial claims remains at
very low levels that indicate the labor market is still improving. New jobless claims
rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000 for week ending August 15.The
average of new claims over the past month rose by 5,500 to seasonally adjusted
271,500. These two news items corroborated with a slightly downbeat undertone in
the latest USFOMC minutes which boosted gold sharply.
WTI Crude oil futures stayed depressed following a massive slide in global stocks. The
overnight cues for global equities were bleak as the Dow Jones plunged 358 points on
Thursday to close below 17,000 for the first time since October 2014 following
continued economic worries and uncertainty regarding the FOMC policy. Oil traders
also eyed a huge increase in US stockpiles and Crude oil futures are currently trading
at $40.81 per barrel, down 01.21% on the day. MCX Crude oil futures are trading at
Rs 2714 per barrel, down 1.45% on the day. The US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday. US
commercial crude inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels last week, maintaining
a total US commercial crude inventory of 456.2 million barrels. The commercial crude
inventory remains near levels not seen at this time of year in at least the past 80
years. This rattled crude traders further. Traders remain worried about the overall
demand scenario amid weak economic data from Japan, China and Euro zone. Japan’s
gross domestic product shrank 1.6% on an annualized basis in the April-June quarter.
Exports acted as the biggest drag on Japan’s economy, falling a massive 16.5%.
Crude Stays
Depressed As
DOW Tumbles To
10 Month Low.
Copper Depletes
By 22% On A
Yearly Basis on
MCX.
Indian Copper prices have depleted by 22% averaging at Rs 332.3 per kg in August
2015 compared to Rs 425.97 per kg in August 2014 last year. On the monthly basis the
correction has been 5% in domestic prices while Copper has declined by 8.8% since
January 2015 when the prices were Rs 364.36 per kg. Meanwhile, London Metal
Exchange (LME) Copper has corrected 27% since last year. The prices have corrected
to $ 5128 per ton in August 2015 from $ 7000 per ton in August 2014, down 26%. In
coming days prices are expected to roll in between Rs 340 and 320 per kg in the local
markets. The risks and rewards are favoring short positions in Copper. The prices are
expected to correct on every bounce towards Rs 345 -350 levels. The continuous
onslaught by speculators and issues pertaining to Chinese demand resulted in Copper
declining further down in the month of August 2015. After the market panicked by the
recent devaluation of Chinese currency, Copper prices were not able to recover. China
consumes more than 42% of Copper in the world, the move of devaluation of Chinese
currency is expected to bring heavy Copper supplies into the markets that will shave
the demand. The declines were a result of Chinese fear that economy is going into
doldrums. Chinese demand is also facing seasonal issues that is refraining any positive
calls on the metal.
Gold
Consolidates
After Hitting Six
Week Highs.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Aug 25 1:25am FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
6:30pm HPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%
6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.1% 4.9%
7:15pm Flash Services PMI 54.1 55.7
7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 92.8 90.9
7:30pm New Home Sales 512K 482K
7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 9 13
Aug 26 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.3% 0.6%
6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.5% 3.4%
7:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 2.6M
Aug 27 6:00pm Prelim GDP q/q 3.2% 2.3%
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 275K 277K
6:00pm Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.0% 2.0%
7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.3% -1.8%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 53B
Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
Aug 28 6:00pm Goods Trade Balance -62.3B
6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2%
6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.4%
7:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.2 92.9
7:30pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%
Day 2 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
Aug 29 9:55pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
Day 3 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26850 26380 25740 27700 28270 28775
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
36000 35350 34550 37000 37800 38550
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed bullish movement,
and due to strong dollar movement it
correct up to weekly trendline and
closed above it. Now, if it is able to
maintain above 27700 then next major
resistance level is seen in the range of
28250-28500. On lower side if some
correction happens then 26500 will act
as important support level below
which it may drag up to next support
level of 26000.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
on dips for the target of 27650 with
stop loss of 26500.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER traded on quiet note in
initial part of the week but hiked in
later half and crossed the important
resistance mark on daily charts on back
of strong Comex movements and
Rupee depreciation. Although, it did
not surged as gold but now the crucial
point seen ahead is around 37000
which is 50% retracement. On lower
side any closing below 35000 can result
in strong correction in the counter.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 37000 for
the target of 38000, with stop loss of
35500.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
2630 2500 2350 2800 2915 3035
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
326 315 300 344 358 370
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways to bullish movement and
consolidated around its important
weekly support level of 327 and not
able to sustain below it. Now, if it
maintains above 344 on higher side
then next important resistance level is
seen around 357.30. On the other
hand if it sustain below 327 then next
support will seen around 315.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 2630 for the target of 2500,
with stop loss of 2800.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil showed straight eighth
weekly closing on bearish note and
made new recent weekly low of 2637.
Now, if it sustain below 2600 in coming
sessions then next important support
level is seen around 2375. On the other
hand maintaining above 2800 will pull
it towards resistance level of 3000.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 344, with stop loss of 325 for the
targets of 357-360.
PIVOT TABLE
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