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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Report (14th · PDF fileWeekly Commodity Report 14th-MAR-2016 ... This report...

  • 1 Commodity Weekly Report

    Weekly Commodity Report (14th-MAR-2016)

  • 2

    Fundamental News: The gold rally was extinguished Friday

    morning in the US after reaching a new high, while investors

    now turn to next weeks Federal Reserve decision.

    Technical Outlook: Gold has close below 29060 means some more

    drop ahead. So, Buy near 29280 with TGT 29500 & 29700 SL

    29060 or else Short below 28925 with TGT 28825 & 28492 SL

    29060.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US Core Retail

    Sales m/m, US PPI m/m, US Retail Sales m/m, US Core PPI m/m,

    US Empire State Manufacturing Index, US Building Permits, US CPI

    m/m, US Core CPI m/m, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilization

    Rate, US Industrial Production m/m, US FOMC Economic Projec-

    tions, US FOMC Statement, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US

    Unemployment Claims, US Current Account, US JOLTS Job

    Openings, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

    Weekly Commodity Report

    14th-MAR-2016

    Commodity Weekly Report

    R1 29749 R2 30150 R3 31016

    S1 29276 S2 28819 S3 28492

    MCX GOLD Daily Chart

    GOLD Commentary

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    MCX SILVER Daily Chart SILVER Commentary

    Fundamental News: In US data, import prices is set to be released

    later today, while Chinese industrial production, fixed assets

    investment and retail sales are scheduled to be released over the

    weekend. silver for May settlement increased 0.3 percent.

    Technical Outlook: Silver has witnessed a bound trade between

    36445 to 38250 level. Go short near 36750 with TGT of 36450 &

    35915 and maintain SL of 37250 or else Buy near 37900 with

    TGT 38400 & 38800 and keep SL of 37250 level.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US Core Retail

    Sales m/m, US PPI m/m, US Retail Sales m/m, US Core PPI m/m,

    US Empire State Manufacturing Index, US Building Permits, US CPI

    m/m, US Core CPI m/m, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilization

    Rate, US Industrial Production m/m, US FOMC Economic Projec-

    tions, US FOMC Statement, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US

    Unemployment Claims, US Current Account, US JOLTS Job

    Openings, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    R1 37850 R2 38250 R3 38800

    S1 36445 S2 35915 S3 35234

  • 3

    Fundamental News: Crude Oil futures jumped to their highest

    level on the calendar year, extending their month-long rally from

    multi-year lows, as the domestic rig count last week fell to its

    lowest level on record.

    Technical Outlook: Crude Oil has witnessed a positive range bias

    Go long above 2670 With TGT of 2730 & 2828 and keep Sl of

    2600 or else Short below 2560 with TGT of 2516 & 2466 and

    keep stop loss of 2600.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US Core Retail

    Sales m/m, US PPI m/m, US Retail Sales m/m, US Core PPI m/m,

    US Empire State Manufacturing Index, US Building Permits, US CPI

    m/m, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilization Rate, US Industrial

    Production m/m, US Crude Oil Inventories, US FOMC Economic

    Projections, US FOMC Statement, US Philly Fed Manufacturing

    Index, US Unemployment Claims, US Current Account, US JOLTS

    Job Openings, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

    Weekly Commodity Report

    14th-MAR-2016

    Commodity Weekly Report

    R1 2642 R2 2735 R3 2828

    S1 2466 S2 2308 S3 2212

    MCX CRUDE OIL Daily Chart CRUDE OIL Commentary

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    MCX NATURAL GAS Daily Chart NATURAL GAS Commentary

    Fundamental News: U.S. natural gas futures turned lower in

    North American trade on Thursday, reversing gains after data

    showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell broadly in line with

    market expectations last week.

    Technical Outlook:

    Natural Gas has witnessed a short covering rally. Go long above

    124 with TGT of 127.3 & 131.8 and keep stop loss of 120 Or else

    Go short below 117.9 with TGT of 114.8 & 110 and Keep SL of

    122 level.

    Data to Watch: US Natural Gas Storage.

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    R1 127.3 R2 131.8 R3 136.3

    S1 118.5 S2 112.6 S3 108

  • 4

    Fundamental News: Copper futures experienced a modest

    rebound Friday morning after the latest attempt to spur the

    European economy looks promising. The new programme is

    expected to be the final expansion of a massive stimulus appara-

    tus and will run till at least.

    Technical Outlook: Copper has witnessed a range bound trade.

    So, go short near 340.3 with TGT of 335 & 331 and maintain Stop

    loss of 345 or else go long above 323.6 with TGT 328 & 333 and

    keep sl of 316 level.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US PPI m/m,

    US Retail Sales m/m, US Empire State Manufacturing Index, GBP

    Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Claimant Count Change, US

    Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilization Rate,

    US Industrial Production m/m, US FOMC Statement, US Philly Fed

    Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, US JOLTS Job

    Openings, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

    Weekly Commodity Report

    14th-MAR-2016

    Commodity Weekly Report

    R1 340.4 R2 348 R3 362

    S1 331.15 S2 323.55 S3 317.45

    MCX COPPER Daily Chart COPPER Commentary

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    MCX ALUMINIUM Daily Chart ALUMINIUM Commentary

    Fundamental News: Base metals ended the week in positive

    territory on the LME and are now awaiting Chinese data over the

    weekend for fresh direction.

    Technical Outlook: Aluminum has witnessed a positive rally until

    close below 104.3 range. So, go long above 105.3 with TGT of

    106.8 & 108.5 keep SL at 104. Go short near 108.5 with TGT of

    107 & 104.8 keep SL of 110.5.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US PPI m/m,

    US Retail Sales m/m, US Empire State Manufacturing Index, GBP

    Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Claimant Count Change, US

    Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilization Rate,

    US Industrial Production m/m, US FOMC Statement, US Philly Fed

    Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, US JOLTS Job

    Openings, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    R1 106.8 R2 108.5 R3 109.55

    S1 104.3 S2 102.15 S3 99.95

  • 5

    Technical Outlook: Lead has witnessed a range bound trade. So,

    go long near 121.8 with TGT of 123 & 128.25 and keep SL of

    119.5.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US PPI m/m,

    US Retail Sales m/m, US Empire State Manufacturing Index, GBP

    Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Claimant Count Change, US

    Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US Industrial Production m/

    m, US FOMC Statement, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US

    Unemployment Claims, US JOLTS Job Openings.

    Weekly Commodity Report

    14th-MAR-2016

    Commodity Weekly Report

    MCX LEAD Daily Chart

    LEAD Commentary

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    MCX ZINC Daily Chart ZINC Commentary

    Technical Outlook: Zinc has witnessed a range bound trade. So,

    go sell below 117 with TGT of 115 & 113.85 and SL of 119.9.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US PPI m/m,

    US Retail Sales m/m, US Empire State Manufacturing Index, GBP

    Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Claimant Count Change, US

    Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilization Rate,

    US Industrial Production m/m, US FOMC Statement.

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    R1 126.4 R2 128.25 R3 135.1

    S1 121.7 S2 118.05 S3 115.1

    R1 123 R2 125.5 R3 128

    S1 117.9 S2 113.5 S3 110.55

    MCX NICKEL Daily Chart NICKEL Commentary

    Technical Outlook: Nickel has witnessed a range bound trade. So,

    go short below 588 with TGT 579.5 & 565.5 and keep SL of 610.

    Data to Watch: JAPAN Monetary Policy Statement, US PPI m/m,

    US Retail Sales m/m, US Empire State Manufacturing Index, GBP

    Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Claimant Count Change.

    Weekly View

    Medium term View

    R1 616 R2 631 R3 656

    S1 579.5 S2 565.5 S3 548.3

  • 6 Commodity Weekly Report

    Weekly MCX COMMODITY CHANGE

    ECONOMIC CALENDER

    Indices Close Change %

    GOLD 29500 -266 -0.89

    SILVER 37610 -192 -0.51

    CRUDE OIL 2595 190 7.90

    NATURAL GAS 123.3 11.3 10.09

    COPPER 334.5 -4.7 -1.39

    ALUMINIUM 104.7 -1.9 -1.78

    LEAD 124.05 -1.2 -0.96

    ZINC 120.95 -2.3 -1.87

    NICKEL 588.7 -38 -6.06

    Country Economic Event Forecast Previous Date &Time

    JAPAN Current Account 0.23T -0.78T 9th June (5.20 AM)

    JAPAN Final GDP q/q 1.4% 1.5% 9th June (5.20 AM)

    CANADA Housing Starts 185K 195K 9th June (5.45 PM)

    AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks - - 9th June (9.00 PM)

    GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y - 4.2% 10th June (4.31 AM)

    JAPAN Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -3.3% 2.4% 10th June (5.20 AM)

    AUD Home Loans m/m 0.3% -0.