Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

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25 MAY 29 MAY 2015 \ W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Transcript of Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

Page 1: Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

25 MAY – 29 MAY 2015

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W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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Page 2: Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

MAJOR EVENTS Gold eased on Friday, on course for its first weekly decline in four weeks, after U.S.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she expected an interest rate hike this year.

The dollar extended gains following the speech, after initially climbing on a stronger-

than-expected rise in U.S. core consumer prices in April. Yellen said she expected the

central bank to raise rates this year as the U.S. economy was on course to bounce

back from a sluggish first quarter and as headwinds at home and abroad begin to

wane.

Spot gold, higher initially, fell 0.1 percent to $1,204.72 an ounce by 3 p.m. EDT (1900

GMT). It was down 1.6 percent for the week. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were

little changed, settling down 10 cents at $1,204 an ounce. The market was quiet

ahead of public holidays on Monday in Britain and the United States. The dollar rose 1

percent versus a basket of leading currencies, initially buoyed by data that showed the

U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent last month, while core CPI, which strips

out food and energy costs, increased 0.3 percent, the largest gain since January 2013.

Crude oil settled up 1.02% just under $59 as prices recovered snapping a five-day

losing streak to end higher on Wednesday after official data from the EIA showed

crude stockpiles in the U.S. to have declined more than expected last week, although

production continued to remain firm.This morning crude oil added 9 cents to 59.07

and Brent oil added 39 cents to 65.19 both remaining under their highs earlier this

week. Oil edged up on Thursday, supported by a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories

although weak China data and concerns about excess oil supply capped price gains.

China’s manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in May, hitting the

lowest in 13 months, despite earlier reassurance from Chinese Premier Li that the

world’s second largest economy can meet its 7 percent growth target this year.Crude

oil inventories dropped 2.7mbls in the week ended May 15, while markets expected a

decline of 2mbls. The report showed WTI crude oil inventories at 482.2mbls end last

week. This is the third straight week of crude oil inventories decline.U.S. remained

firm at 8.87mbls a day. Gasoline stocks dropped 2.8mbls last week, Inventories of

distillate, including heating fuel, dipped 546,000 barrels.

Oil Fundamentals

Remain

Unchanged As

Prices Bounce

Copper Challenged

By The Worries On

Chinese Demand.

Copper prices got hit by the worries of Chinese demand that sucked the necessary

steam from the metal. The prices dipped below Rs 400 in domestic exchanges while

tripped to a three week low in International exchanges. The bears have lashed on the

opportunity to book profits in the metal after the Chinese import numbers dejected

the prices.

The industrial metal touched a three-week low of $6,194 on Wednesday, pressured by

a strong dollar which is on course to snap a five-week losing run against a basket of

currencies. A firmer dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities such as copper

costlier for buyers using other currencies. The dollar finished lower against its main

rivals Thursday, snapping three days of gains, after a trio of weak economic reports

added to concerns about the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate increase

since 2006. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper alloy were 380,000

tonnes in April, taking imports in the first four months of the year to 1.35 million

tonnes, down 14.7 percent from a year ago.Indian Copper prices declined to Rs 396

per kg, down 1.9%. The prices of MCX Copper tested a high of Rs 403.6 per kg and a

low of Rs 394.65 per kg.

Gold falls as

Yellen points to

rate hike, dollar

jumps.

Page 3: Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

May 25 All Day Bank Holiday

8:30pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

May 26 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% 0.3%

6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.4% 4.7%

6:30pm HPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%

6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 4.6% 5.0%

7:15pm Flash Services PMI 57.0 57.4

7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 95.3 95.2

7:30pm New Home Sales 501K 481K

7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 0 -3

10:00pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

May 27 5:40am FOMC Member Lacker Speaks

Day 1 ALL G7 Meetings

May 28 11:50am FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Day 2 ALL G7 Meetings

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 272K 274K

7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 0.8% 1.1%

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 92B

8:30pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.7M

May 29 Day 3 ALL G7 Meetings

6:00pm Prelim GDP q/q -0.9% 0.2%

6:00pm Prelim GDP Price Index q/q -0.1% -0.1%

7:15pm Chicago PMI 53.1 52.3

7:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 90.0 88.6

7:30pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%

Page 4: Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

26950 26635 26350 27365 27685 28000

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

38490 37500 36650 39550 40600 41500

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed bearish movement,

and took reversal from trendline and

closed around its important

psychological support level of 27000.

Now, if it is able to sustain below

27000 then next major support level is

seen in the range of 26750-26500. On

other hand maintaining above 27400

bullish movement may move it

towards the resistance level of 27750.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 27000 for the target of 26500

with stop loss of 27750.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

downward movement and after found

the important resistance of 40600 it

drag towards the support level of

39000 and closed below it. Now, if it

sustain below 38500 then next support

level may seen at 37500. On higher

side maintaing above 39600 will again

pull it towards the resistance level of

40600.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 38450 for

the targets of 37450-37000, with stop

loss of 40600.

Page 5: Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

3715 3570 3425 3900 4000 4140

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

389.80 379.20 368.80 404.35 413.20 423.35

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

downward movement and gave the

breakout of its important support level

of 410 closed around its important

support level of 395. Now, if it sustain

below 390 on lower side next

important support level is seen around

380. On the other hand if it maintains

above the resistance level of 405 then

it will pull back towards the next

resistance level of 415.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell below 3700 for the target of 3500,

with stop loss of 4000.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement but not able to

sustain below 3715 and closed around

3800. Now, if it sustain below 3700 in

coming sessions then next important

support level is seen around 3570. On

the other hand 3850 will act as

important resistance level above which

again it will move towards the

resistance level of 4000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 390, with stop loss of 405 for the

targets of 380.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Weekly Commodity Model and Tips

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