27 JULY – 31 JULY 2015

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MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold futures continued to remain under stress today as the global prices

resumed their selling spree. The commodity accelerated its slide this week in world

markets, testing a fresh five and half year low near $1080 per ounce on weak Chinese

central bank holdings data and a meltdown in commodity prices. Latest export data

from Switzerland affected gold. Swiss Customs Administration has released gold

export data for June, which showed that total outflows from the European nation

totaled 98.5 tonnes. The data further showed that just 14 tonnes of gold was

exported from Switzerland to Hong Kong, a decline of 25% compared to May. This is a

proxy of poor Chinese gold demand and traders were reluctant to enter long in the

metal after the slide under $1100 per ounce. A failure to hold above the same mark in

the last session has triggered further correction in gold today. The COMEX Gold

futures are trading at $1082 per ounce, down 1.11% on the day. MCX Gold futures are

trading at Rs 24556 per 10 grams, down 0.72% on the day. Despite economic

uncertainty in some regions, the gold price declined in the first half of 2015. While

puzzling to some investors, this is consistent with market expectations that the risks

could be contained, according to a latest update from the World Gold Council (WGC).

Crude oil may open on negative note as EIA inventory data is likely to give further

direction to the prices on Wednesday. Overall it can move in range of 3160-3280 in

MCX, as per SMC Global forecast. Crude Oil August contract has been trading down

by -0.83 per cent to 3208 level on Wednesday (11.59am).

Strong U.S. dollar and Iran's plans to pour oil on an already glutted market sent U.S.

crude below $50 per barrel on Tuesday. Cooling economies in oil-hungry Asia and

Europe also have weakened demand, sending the price below $50 for the first time

since April. Iran, anticipating the lifting of embargoes on its supply within months

after the recent nuclear deal with Western powers, is said to have loaded super

tankers in the Persian Gulf with tens of millions of barrels of oil awaiting purchase

orders. Iran has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world but sanctions by the U.S.,

and countries in Europe and elsewhere have stymied its ability to obtain U.S. dollars

for international transactions. The slump in oil prices most hurts Middle East

producers and nations such as Venezuela, already beset with protracted economic

problems.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows money managers now

hold short positions in WTI futures and options contracts equivalent to almost 110m

barrels of US crude more than a day of global oil demand.

MCX Crude Oil

negative; Focus on

EIA data.

Copper Gains

Marginally During

Weekend.

The prices of MCX August expiry Copper were last seen trading at Rs 339.4 per kg, up

0.24%. The prices of MCX Copper tested a high of Rs 339.8 per kg and a low of Rs

334.3 per kg. As was expected Copper gained marginally on the weekend. Although

the gains have been limited below Rs 340 per kg.

Goldman cut its three-, six- and 12-month copper price forecasts to $5,200, $4,800

and $4,800 per ton respectively, from $5,500, $5,550 and $5,200. On a longer term

basis, it cut its 2017 and 2018 forecasts to $4,500 a ton from $7,000 and $8,000

respectively. It doesn't expect the copper price to rise above the metal's marginal cost

until 2020.

The dollar strengthened broadly after the U.S. Department of Labor reported on

Thursday that number of filings for individual jobless claims benefits in the week

ending July 18 fell by 26,000 to a 40-year low of 255,000 from the previous week's

total of 281,000. The data added to expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the near future.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the central bank is likely to raise

rates at some point this year.

Gold Holds Near

Half A Decade

Low Ahead Of

Weekend.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

July 27 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.0%

6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.2% -2.2%

July 28 6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.2% 4.9%

7:15pm Flash Services PMI 55.1 54.8

7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 100.1 101.4

7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 6

July 29 7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.2% 0.9%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 2.5M

11:30pm FOMC Statement

11:30pm Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%

July 30 6:00pm Advance GDP q/q 2.6% -0.2%

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 264K 255K

6:00pm Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.5% 0.0%

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 61B

July 31 6:00pm Employment Cost Index q/q 0.6% 0.7%

7:15pm Chicago PMI 50.7 49.4

7:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 94.2 93.3

7:30pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

24450 24000 23600 24910 25340 25720

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

33300 32500 31000 34550 35450 36450

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed downward

movement, broke its important weekly

support level i.e. 24830 and also closed

below it. Now, if it is able to sustain

below 24800 then next major support

level is seen in the range of 23950-

23400. On other hand if some

correction happens then 25000 will act

as important resistance level,

maintaining above it next resistance

level is 25500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 24400 for the targets of 24000-

23600 with stop loss of 25100.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

bearish movement traded in between

channel pattern, found major weekly

support of 33500 and closed above it.

Now, if it sustains below 33500 then

next support is seen at 32500. On

higher side if some correction shown

then 35000 will act as important

resistance level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 33300 for

the targets of 32000-31000, with stop

loss of 35000.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

3075 2830 2640 3230 3400 3575

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

332.35 322 310 345.30 355.85 368

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

downward movement and broke its

important support level of 353 and

found weekly support of 332.35. Now,

if it sustain below 332 on lower side

then next important support level is

seen around 320. On the other hand if

correction happens and maintains

above 345 then next important

resistance will be seen around 360.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell on highs for the targets of 2950-2850,

with stop loss of 3350.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil showed straight four

weekly closing on bearish note and

also gave closing below the 61.8%

retracement level. Now, if it sustain

below 3050 in coming sessions then

next important support level is seen

around 2950. On the other hand

maintaining above 3175 will again pull

it towards resistance level of 3315.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 332, with stop loss of 350 for the

targets of 320-315.

PIVOT TABLE

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