Weekly Commodity Market Report With MCX Tips

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Transcript of Weekly Commodity Market Report With MCX Tips

  • 29 DEC 02 JAN 2015

    W E E K L Y

    R

    E

    P

    O

    R

    T

    Blow by Blow

    On

    Bullions,

    Base metals,

    Energy

    WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

  • MAJOR EVENTS

    Gold advanced the most in more than two weeks amid speculation that China, the

    worlds biggest consumer, will take more measures to bolster the economy, boosting

    demand for the precious metal as a store of value.

    The Peoples Bank of China plans to temporarily waive a requirement for lenders to

    set aside reserves for some deposits, people with knowledge of the matter said. Gold

    surged 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as central banks increased

    money supply on an unprecedented scale. Gold has rebounded almost 6 percent from

    a four-year low reached in November as China lowered interest rates last month to

    spur economic growth and Japan expanded its unprecedented stimulus program. The

    moves rekindled concern that global inflation could rise even as U.S. consumer costs

    stay below the Federal Reserves goal. Speculation that China will do more to support

    the economy is creating demand for gold. At some point with all this money in the

    system, we could see some concern about inflation. Gold futures for February delivery

    climbed 1.9 percent to settle at $1,195.30 an ounce at 1:40 p.m. on the Comex in New

    York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Dec. 9. Prices declined 1.9

    percent in the previous three sessions.

    Natural gas slumped below $3 per million British thermal units in New York for the

    first time since 2012 on speculation that record production will overwhelm demand

    for the heating fuel.

    Futures settled at the lowest in 27 months and have plunged 26 percent in

    December, heading for the biggest one-month drop since July 2008, as mild weather

    and record production erased a surplus to year-ago levels for the first time in two

    years. Temperatures will be mostly above average in the eastern half of the U.S.

    through Dec. 30.

    Natural gas for January delivery fell 2.3 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $3.007 per

    million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $2.973, the

    lowest intraday price since Sept. 26, 2012. Volume was 54 percent below the 100-day

    average for the time of day at 2:32 p.m. Gas dropped 13 percent this week, a fifth

    straight weekly decline.

    Natural Gas Drops

    Below $3 for First

    Time Since 2012.

    Expectations of

    Weak Chinese

    Data Squeeze

    Copper.

    Copper got squeezed on the expectations that the Industrial data from China due to be

    released tomorrow would remain weak. China consumes more than 40 percent of

    Copper and the debacle in its demand can crumble the non ferrous metals especially

    Copper.

    Meanwhile, the volumes remained laggard as the traders still remained on holidays

    due to Christmas. Gains in Dollar were troubling Dollar denominated currencies. In

    foreign exchange markets, US Dollar remained on the higher side of the spectrum

    compared to Euro.

    The Dollar is now at 28 months highs against the Euro forcing traders to bet lower on

    the commodities like Copper. These commodities have also faced crisis on account of

    growing expectations of supplies in coming days. This month, U.S. gross domestic

    product rose 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of

    4.3% and up from 3.9% in the three months to June. On MCX, Copper was trading at Rs

    405.6 per kg, up 0.33 percent. The prices are expected to move lower but not

    significantly as the volumes are not progressing forward indicating lack of volatile

    activity.

    Gold Advances

    Most in Two

    Weeks on China

    Stimulus

    Speculation.

  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

    DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

    Dec 30 7:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 4.4% 4.9%

    8:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 94.6 88.7

    Dec 31 7:00pm Unemployment Claims 287K 280K

    8:15pm Chicago PMI 60.2 60.8

    8:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 0.6% -1.1%

    9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 7.3M

    10:30pm Natural Gas Storage -49B

    Jan 1 All Day Bank Holiday

    Jan 2 8:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 54.1 53.7

    8:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.6 58.7

    8:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 1.1%

    8:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 43.1 44.5

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    26500 26050 25525 27350 27800 28200

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    35800 34500 33600 38200 39450 40600

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD showed choppy movement,

    tested the support level of 26500 and

    there is also trendline support. Now, if

    it is able to sustain above 27300 then

    next resistance level is seen around

    27800. On other hand if it maintain

    below 26500 then bearish movement

    take it towards the next support level

    of 26000.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

    above 27300 for the targets of 27800

    with stop loss of 26400.

    PIVOT TABLE

    G O L D

    PIVOT TABLE

    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

    sideways movement last week, found

    support around 35800 and closed

    above to it. Now, if it sustain above

    38000 then next resistance is seen in

    the range of 39300-40000. On lower

    side maintain below 35830 then next

    support is seen around 34500. If it is

    closed below 34500 then it could test

    recent bottom of 33500.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to sell below 35800 for

    the target of 33500, with stop loss of

    39200.

  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    3435 3125 2885 3765 4060 4350

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    397.80 394.50 389.80 406.40 410.70 415

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper last week showed bearish

    movement and closed around 400.

    Important trendline has been broken

    and its also look like a small head and

    shoulder now if it is sustain below 400

    then it will move towards 390 next

    important support. On the other hand

    immediate resistance is seen near 411,

    if it is closed above this resistance

    then next resistance will be seen at

    418.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

    sell below 3500 for the target of 3300,

    with stop loss of 3750.

    PIVOT TABLE

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Crude oil last week showed

    sideways movement found support of

    psychological level of 3500 and

    consolidate around it. Now, if it sustain

    below 3500 then bears may again

    active and find next support around

    3100. If some correction occurs and

    maintains above 3800 then 4000 will

    act as major resistance for it.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    below 400, with stop loss of 412 for the

    target of 390.

    PIVOT TABLE

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