Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart...

26
Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 1 Weekly Charts and Analysis Updated to 31 July 2015 The charts provided in this document are primarily intended as a teaching tool where I use the current markets to demonstrate my analysis. It should be clearly understood that my analysis of the markets is intended only as my thinking with respect to my own investment strategy. In doing so, I am neither making nor implying any recommendation for readers to invest in any market at any time. Nor should my thinking about my own strategy be seen as making or implying any recommendation for readers to take, or not take, any action with regard to their own investment plan. Readers need to assess the relevance of anything in this document to their investment plan, seeking advice from a licensed adviser if unable to make such an assessment themselves. Navigating the Document Open and use bookmarks to jump directly to any section in the PDF file: The document is a PDF file, which allows you to use the zooming tool in Adobe Reader to enlarge detail in the charts. What has changed this week? Analysis Where I have made a change to the analysis anywhere in the document from the previous week, the changed or additional text will be in this colour blue. Charts All charts in this document are updated every week. Coppock Indicator Note that the Coppock indicator is calculated on the monthly closing value of the index. However, the charts of it below are calculated on the last price to date in each month. This means that the indicator value charted during the month is provisional, assuming the month closes at that level of the index. The true value of the indicator is not charted until the month ends.

Transcript of Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart...

Page 1: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 1

Weekly Charts and Analysis Updated to 31 July 2015

The charts provided in this document are primarily intended as a teaching tool where I use the current markets to demonstrate my analysis. It should be clearly understood that my analysis of the markets is intended only as my thinking with respect to my own investment strategy. In doing so, I am neither making nor implying any recommendation for readers to invest in any market at any time. Nor should my thinking about my own strategy be seen as making or implying any recommendation for readers to take, or not take, any action with regard to their own investment plan. Readers need to assess the relevance of anything in this document to their investment plan, seeking advice from a licensed adviser if unable to make such an assessment themselves.

Navigating the Document

Open and use bookmarks to jump directly

to any section in the PDF file:

The document is a PDF file, which allows you to use the zooming tool in Adobe Reader to enlarge detail in the charts.

What has changed this week?

Analysis

Where I have made a change to the analysis anywhere in the document from the previous week, the changed or additional text will be in this colour blue.

Charts

All charts in this document are updated every week.

Coppock Indicator

Note that the Coppock indicator is calculated on the monthly closing value of the index. However, the charts of it below are calculated on the last price to date in each month. This means that the indicator value charted during the month is provisional, assuming the month closes at that level of the index. The true value of the indicator is not charted until the month ends.

Page 2: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 2

ASX All Ordinaries Total Return Index Analysis This is the primary index that I watch for the Australian market, and against which I benchmark my returns, although matching or beating the index is not my investment plan objective. The charts now have a black dashed line to show where the Total Return index is now relative to the top of the bull market in 2007.

Monthly Charts

This is the long term picture and shows how steady the return has been over the last 30 years for passive investors, though patience was needed for a few years after the 1987 “crash” and the 2008-09 bear market until the market reached a new high. The alternative has been my market exposure strategy that has taken me out into cash for most of the bear markets over this period and, combined with stock selection, has outperformed the market over the last 15 years (see yellow overlined line in the table below).

Period S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Total Return Index My Return

Last financial year: 2014-15 5.67% 17.01% CAGR 5 Years (FY 2011 – 2015) 9.36% 10.61% CAGR 10 Years (FY 2006 – 2015) 7.02% 9.49% CAGR 15 Years (FY 2001 – 2015) 7.82% 13.67% CAGR 20 Years (FY 1996 – 2015) 9.40% NA CAGR 30 Years (FY 1986 – 2015) 10.78% NA

The market returns are the pre-tax return using the ASX All Ordinaries Total Return index, which assumes reinvestment of dividends on the ex-dividend date, but not franking credits. My return is also pre-tax and includes reinvestment of dividends from the payment date. My return includes franking credits, but they are not reinvested because they are received in the next year and TWAC is adjusted when they are received. Inclusion of franking credits in my return is only a minor part of the

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

20000.00

30000.00

40000.0050000.0060000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 48099.4232

M @ M 300484-310715 XAOA - ALL ORDINARIES ACC INDEX > +0.5% +249.783 to 49589.389

Page 3: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 3

difference in return and partly offsets the timing difference for reinvestment of dividends between the index and my portfolio.

Notice how the annual Total Return is larger the longer the period. This reflects the power of reinvesting dividends.

This is the shorter-term monthly chart that shows the previous bull and bear markets, leading into the current bull market. Since the 2007 high, the market has made a clear new all-time high and is trending upward in a tentative trend channel. The index is now more than double the 2009 low.

The last Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of July 2012. The Coppock turned down some time ago, but that is not a sell-signal and is normal in a bull market (see 1995-2002). To understand this, realise that the Coppock indicator is in essence a specific long-term momentum oscillator based on Rate of Change. Therefore, like any momentum oscillator, it should fluctuate with the rise and fall of the market.

My analysis that underlies my market exposure strategy suggests strongly that we are now in a bull market and I am close to fully invested.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-400

400

Copp

Coppock = 99.52812000.00

14000.00

16000.0018000.0020000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 48099.4232 M @ M 310103-310715 XAOA - ALL ORDINARIES ACC INDEX > +0.5% +249.783 to 49589.389

Page 4: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 4

Point and figure Chart For the first thirty-six years of my investing career, I used point and figure charts exclusively. Before we had computers, point and figure charts were the fastest way to keep several hundred charts of markets and stocks by hand. For the last fourteen years, I have been using computer generated bar charts because they are more intuitive for most students, who struggle with the lack of a time scale on point and figure charts, which capture only price action (the horizontal axis above provides an approximate and necessarily non-linear time scale). However, point and figure charts have a useful role in clarifying the peaks and troughs in a trend and also show significant support and resistance levels quite well.

The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then broke out to a clear all-time new high, where it was consolidating. It is now in a correction. The expectation is that it will fall back to support around the top of the previous sideways pattern, which would be normal behaviour for this index and is often best seen on the point and figure chart. This is a possibility for the May to October period, when the market normally tends to be volatile to down.

20000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00

M J S D10

M J SD11

M J S D12

M J S D13M J S D

14M J S D

15M J

D @ D 020109-310715 XAOA - ALL ORDINARIES ACC INDEX > +0.5% +249.783 to 49589.389 500x1

Page 5: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 5

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart, as did the shorter-term monthly chart earlier, shows clearly that the trend is rising in a wide tentative trend channel.

The last rise was very steep and no market keeps rising at that rate for long and there was a loss of momentum that has turned into a correction. Over the last two and a half years, corrections have found support around the top of the previous peak in the trend.

An overriding factor is the well-known cyclical tendency for our market on average to be volatile and possibly down-trending from May to October, consistent with the risk of a correction after such a strong rise. Note that “on average” means that it does not happen every time!

Instead of trying to forecast or predict, the better approach is to assess the condition of the market and manage the risks. As an investor, I do not want to sell unless a stock violates my stops. This is because it is better to be invested through a bull market than to trade in and out.

So, what might I do as an investor?

1. Review all my stocks and ensure that my stops have been raised in line with the logic of my investment plan. This is important because in rising markets I can get a bit complacent and lazy (I am now ensuring that I review every chart fully at least roughly once a month).

2. What I do NOT do is to move stops closer than mandated by the logic of my investment plan. To do so will almost guarantee that some good investments are stopped out.

3. If I have cash in reserve (likely if one or two stocks are stopped out), it is a time to do my research looking for stocks to buy once any correction seems to be running its course. In other words, buy bargains as they emerge, not wait till everyone else is buying them (what most private investors do).

4. If some of my stocks have risen a long way and seem very over-priced (PE ratios over 30 is a rough guide), it may be smart to take some profits in them using the guideline in my investment plan. However, I rarely sell my entire holding if I think the business is still a good one and earnings growth looks assured i.e. letting your profits run is a Wall Street mandate.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

20000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 47898.2183 W @ W 040108-310715 XAOA - ALL ORDINARIES ACC INDEX > +0.5% +249.783 to 49589.389

Page 6: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 6

Over the last month or so readers will have seen my thinking on these issues in my portfolio, explained in progressive updates to my stock journals.

Falling Markets represent Opportunity

Many investors shy away from falling markets. That is wise in a bear market. However, we are now in a correction in a bull market, so falling prices represent opportunities to buy good stocks at cheaper prices. See my article Shopping in the Stockmarket on the Educational Articles page on the Free Resources menu.

We Cannot Predict the Future

The natural impulse of most investors is to want someone to tell them what markets are going to do in the future. After studying the markets for 50 years and reading extensively on the research, I know that we cannot predict markets.

Predicting markets is not that useful anyway, even if it was possible. What is useful is to have a written investment plan. This should lay out for you what you plan to do if various events occur. That is what is truly useful – knowing what you will do if this happens or that happens. Then just calmly execute your plan.

Page 7: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 7

Performance Against Benchmark As mentioned earlier, my investment objective is not to beat the Total Return index. However, I do benchmark against it. This is to tell me how I am going in the sense that if I am doing worse than the index, I maybe should re-examine what I am doing and if I am beating the benchmark, my stock selection is working well. So, I graph my return year to date against the year to date return for the Total Return index:

I graph this at the end of each week. These are the graphs to the end of last week:

Early in the year, these graphs are of somewhat limited value. Nevertheless, it seems that last year’s pattern of my portfolio holding up in market declines is continuing.

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Percentage Return Year to Date: PFO V Mkt

Page 8: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 8

Overseas Markets Chart Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Monthly chart

After the multi-year upswing from 1982 to 2000, the US stock markets formed a broad sideways pattern culminating in the 2008-09 bear market. Since then, the upward trend has been steadily upward, swinging either side of, but mostly above a rising 12-month moving average.

The DJIA has continued to make new highs in recent months in a strong and orderly upward trend. However, it has been going basically sideways for a while now. This does not look to me like a market turning point because it has lacked the increased volatility that is usually evident at significant bull market tops.

The last Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of May 2009. The Coppock has turned down, but that is not a sell-signal and is normal in a bull market. It only becomes significant if it falls below zero, which would be the precursor of another buy signal. However, there is no imminent likelihood of that happening.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-400

400

Copp

Coppock = 87.934000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.009000.0010000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.0018000.0020000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 17490.1935

M @ M 310895-310715 DJR - Dow Jones Industrials Index > -0.3% -56.12 to 17689.86

Page 9: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 9

Weekly chart

The present trend direction has been steadily upward since the early 2009 low. 2013 and 2014 saw a period of sustained rise above the steadily rising 52-week moving average. The uptrend is still in place although the last few weeks have seen a fall below the lows of the sideways pattern since early 2015.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00

20000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 17556.3338 W @ W 020109-310715 DJR - Dow Jones Industrials Index > -0.3% -56.12 to 17689.86

Page 10: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 10

NASDAQ Composite index

Monthly chart

After the multi-year upswing from 1974 to 2000, commonly called the technology and internet boom, the NASDAQ crashed to a 2002 low and languished in a great sideways pattern through to 2012, when it broke above the 2007 top. Since then, the trend has been steadily upward swinging either side of, but mostly above, a rising 12-month moving average. The NASDAQ has been one of the strongest parts of the US stock markets in the last three years.

A significant observation about this chart is that the NASDAQ Composite is yet to break decisively above the all-time high (black dashed line across the chart). The theoretical expectation is for significant resistance to be encountered either side of the all-time high.

The last Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of May 2009. The Coppock indicator begun to turn down in recent months, but that is not a sell-signal and is normal in a bull market. It only becomes significant if it falls below zero, which would be the precursor of another buy signal. However, there is no imminent likelihood of that happening.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-600

1,000

Copp

Coppock = 188.936900.001000.00

1200.00

1400.001600.001800.002000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 4806.9576 M @ M 310895-310715 98NAS - NASDAQ Composite Index > 0% -0.504 to 5128.281

Page 11: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 11

Weekly chart

After a steady and strong advance in 2013, 2014 saw two significant corrections. The uptrend is still in place and is unfolding in a very orderly manner so far.

The all-time high (dashed black line on the weekly chart) is likely to be a strong resistance level, so I continue to expect some turbulence before the NASDAQ breaks clear and is trending above it.

I am still expecting further turbulence around this important resistance level to continue.

JFMAMJ J ASOND2010

JFMAMJ J ASOND2011

J FMAMJ J ASOND2012

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

J FMAMJ J ASOND2014

JFMAMJ J A SOND2015

2200.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 4803.8053 W @ W 011010-310715 98NAS - NASDAQ Composite Index > 0% -0.504 to 5128.281

Page 12: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 12

S&P 500 Index

Monthly chart

As was evident on the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart, after the multi-year upswing from 1982 to 2000, the US stock markets formed a broad sideways pattern culminating in the 2008-09 bear market. Since then, the trend has been steadily upward swinging either side of, but mostly above, a rising 12-month moving average.

That said, the rate of the rise has slackened off in recent months. As with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, this does not look to me like a bull market top.

The last Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of May 2009. The Coppock has turned down, but that is not a sell-signal and is normal in a bull market. It only becomes significant if it falls below zero, which would be the precursor of another buy signal. However, there is no imminent likelihood of that happening.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-500

400

Copp

Coppock = 115.578500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00900.001000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.001800.002000.002200.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 2038.4327

M @ M 310895-310715 SP5 - S&P500 Index > -0.2% -4.79 to 2103.84

Page 13: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 13

Weekly chart

The present trend direction is strongly upward above a steadily rising 52-week moving average since the 2011 turbulence. However, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, there is an inescapable observation that the speed of the ascent has slackened and is rounding out sideways. How this plays out remains to be seen. It could be just a pause for breath after the great rise or it could be a set-up for a more serious correction. It may just be the market waiting to see what the Federal Reserve does.

JFMAMJ J ASOND2010

JFMAMJ J ASOND2011

J FMAMJ J ASOND2012

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

J FMAMJ J ASOND2014

JFMAMJ J A SOND2015

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00

2200.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 2041.4103 W @ W 011010-310715 SP5 - S&P500 Index > -0.2% -4.79 to 2103.84

Page 14: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 14

FTSE 100 Index

Monthly chart

After the multi-year upswing from 1975 to 2000, the UK stock market has formed a broad sideways pattern that included the 2000-03 and 2008-09 bear markets. Since then, the UK stock market index has struggled back to at last break above, but not decisively free of resistance around the level of the 2000 peak (dashed black line across the chart).

The last Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of July 2012. However, the Coppock indicator has been falling throughout 2014. This is not a sell signal. Nevertheless, what is perhaps more relevant is that the Coppock indicator is nearing the zero line, reflecting the lack of momentum as the FTSE claws its way up through resistance to the 2000 peak. Unless it breaks that resistance soon and strongly, the Coppock indicator could cross into the negative range.

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-400

400Copp

Coppock = 7.0612600.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 6739.2607 M @ M 310393-310715 FTS - FTSE 100 Index > +0.4% +27.41 to 6696.28

Page 15: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 15

Weekly chart

As was seen on the monthly chart, the FTSE 100 had been churning just above and below the level of the all-time high in 2000. This is consistent with support-resistance theory and may continue for some time. However, the recent downward thrust suggests that the attempt to break through resistance may be on hold for a while longer. Uncertainty in the Euro zone is undoubtedly impacting the UK market in the short term.

JFMAMJ J ASOND2010

JFMAMJ J ASOND2011

J FMAMJ J ASOND2012

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

J FMAMJ J ASOND2014

JFMAMJ J A SOND2015

3800.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 6761.5661 W @ W 011010-310715 FTS - FTSE 100 Index > +0.4% +27.41 to 6696.28

Page 16: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 16

Nikkei 225 Index

Monthly chart

After the multi-year upswing from 1975 to 1990, the Japanese stock market fell savagely from the peak of just under 40,000 points in 1990 to 7,000 points in 2008-09. On the way down, the Japanese market spent the 1990s establishing a wide sideways pattern, which could be expected to provide significant resistance on any rally. Indeed, it provided significant resistance in the run up to the top in 2007. 2015 is seeing a strong move above the 2007 peak, but there is more resistance to overcome going forward. The test will be the dashed black line across the charts, which marks the high in 1996.

The last Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of July 2012. However, the Coppock indicator has been falling throughout 2014. This was not a sell signal and it is now rising again.

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

20000.00

30000.00

40000.00M @ M 310170-310715 98NI2 - Nikkei 225 Index > +0.3% +62.41 to 20585.24

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-600

800

Copp

Coppock = 334.6047000.00

8000.00

9000.0010000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

18000.0020000.00

26000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 18564.2073 M @ M 310190-310715 98NI2 - Nikkei 225 Index > +0.3% +62.41 to 20585.24

Page 17: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 17

Weekly chart

The Japanese market index is making new higher peaks and troughs above a storngly rising moving average, so the trend continues upward.

JFMAMJ J ASOND2010

JFMAMJ J ASOND2011

J FMAMJ J ASOND2012

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

J FMAMJ J ASOND2014

JFMAMJ J A SOND2015

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00

20000.00

22000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 18425.7541 W @ W 130810-310715 98NI2 - Nikkei 225 Index > +0.3% +62.41 to 20585.24

Page 18: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 18

Shanghai All Ordinaries Index

Monthly chart

The latest Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of August 2014, which followed a signal at the end of September 2012 (though it had in the interim given two very shallow signals that I ignored as no more than “noise”). The latest Coppock signal was also shallow, but was clearly the real signal.

After gathering strength, the Shanghai market broke through resistance at the 2009 peak and was headed for a challenge to the 2007 high (dashed black line across the chart). However, it has failed to test the all-time high and has gone into a steep decline that does not yet seem to have fully played out.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-1,000

3,000

Copp

Coppock = 945.1851800.002000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

12000.0014000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 8128.0996

M @ M 291200-310715 98SSE180 - Shanghai All Ordinaries Index > -0.3% -28.34 to 8282.52

Page 19: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 19

Weekly chart

Emerging markets behave quite differently to those we are used to in the developed economies of USA, Europe, Australasia and maybe even Japan. They are more speculative, driven by having a narrow base, poor governance and in China by a gambling instinct.

That aside, the speed of the rise in the last year was begging for a correction of similar speed and magnitude – see the shape of the previous bull-bear markets in 2006-2008 on the monthly chart.

The immediate panic seems to be over. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that we have seen the low. Time will tell.

JFMAMJ J ASOND2010

JFMAMJ J ASOND2011

J FMAMJ J ASOND2012

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

J FMAMJ J ASOND2014

JFMAMJ J A SOND2015

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 8167.5581 W @ W 130810-310715 98SSE180 - Shanghai All Ordinaries Index > -0.3% -28.34 to 8282.52

Page 20: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 20

ASX All Ordinaries Price Index Chart Analysis I do not use the price index in my analysis and the execution of my investing plan. I am providing these charts purely as a service to traders. Accordingly, I am making minimal comment on them, having done my analysis earlier on the Total Return index.

Monthly chart

After the long upward move from the 1987 lows, followed by the 2007-08 bear market, the Australian stock market has been trending upward in a broad tentative trend channel. Unlike the Total Return index, the price index is some way from making a new all-time high above the 2007 peak. This emphasises the power of reinvesting dividends back into the stock market to take advantage of the power of compounding the income stream from investments, which allows investors to outperform traders over time by a considerable margin, as I have shown in several presentations in the last year (slides are on the Presentations page on the Building Wealth Resources menu).

The last Coppock indicator signal was given at the end of July 2012. The Coppock indicator has been trending down through the last year, but this has been normal in bull market in the past (see 1996-2002 on the chart). The Coppock line had now flattened out, but may now turn down again this month. This is NOT a sell signal.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-500

300

Copp

Coppock = 47.9712000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 5597.7742 M @ M 310895-310715 XAO - ALL ORDINARIES INDEX > +0.5% +28.619 to 5681.688

Page 21: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 21

Point and figure chart For the first thirty-six years of my investing career, I used point and figure charts exclusively. Before we had computers they were the fastest way to keep several hundred charts of stocks by hand. For the last fourteen years, I have been using computer generated bar charts because they are more intuitive for most students, who struggle with the lack of a time scale on point and figure charts, which capture only price action. The horizontal axis provides an approximate and necessarily non-linear time scale. However, point and figure charts have a useful role in clarifying the peaks and troughs in a trend as well as showing support and resistance levels clearly.

Since 2012 each significant correction has finished higher than the one before.

Point and figure is a very good chart type to see support and resistance levels. This chart seems to be particularly dominated by round 1,000 levels in the index. Thus 5,000 was a significant resistance level in 2010-2011 and the market fell back to 4,000, which was a significant support level in 2011-2012. It has now marched up steadily through the 5,000 level and been turned back at the 6,000 level. Once the market develops strength to break through 6,000, the next level to provide resistance will be around 7,000, which was just above the 2007all-time high on the price index.

2000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

11000.00

12000.00

MJSD03MJSD04MJSD05MJSD

06MJ SD

07MJ S D

08M J S D

09MJ S D

10M J SD

11M J S D

12MJ S D

13MJ SD

14MJS D

15M J

D @ D 020102-310715 XAO - ALL ORDINARIES INDEX > +0.5% +28.619 to 5681.688 100x1

Page 22: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 22

Weekly chart

In the shorter term on the weekly chart, the Australian market is trending upward within a broad tentative trend channel. As might be expected, the upward rush is well behind us and the market is in a correction phase expected to continue through to October on the usual seasonal pattern.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 5579.6072 W @ W 050107-310715 XAO - ALL ORDINARIES INDEX > +0.5% +28.619 to 5681.688

Page 23: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 23

ASX New High – New Low Index Charts Analysis These charts are provided as a service. They are not a primary method for my investment plan, but can provide insights for timing purchases and sales when building or reducing exposure to the market. They follow basically the methods of Dr Alexander Elder and Kerry Lovvorn in their e-book The New High – New Low Index which is described and may be purchased from here

Historical data is provided monthly on the Data and Other Files page of the Free Resources menu.

For a description of how I calculate the data for these charts in Insight Trader software, see Members Newsletter 013 on the Members Newsletter Archive page on the Building Wealth Resources menu. That Newsletter refers to a 5-day New High- New Low index, which was experimental at the time. I have since abandoned that index as being of little use in practice. The daily and weekly overlay views were also added subsequently.

NH – NL Ratio Long-Term

This is the key New High – New Low Index chart I use. Oversold and overbought levels tend (but not always) to suggest important turning points in the market trend.

Page 24: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 24

NH – NL Ratio Short-Term

This is a far more short-term indicator and can be valuable in looking for intermediate turning points in the market trend.

The remaining New High –New Low charts are very short term in nature and are provided as a service to traders. I do not consider them as being relevant to the investors’ timeframe.

Page 25: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 25

Basic NH – NL chart arrangement

Weekly Overlay View

A M J J A S O N D2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D2014

J F M A M J J A2015

-200.00

-100.00

0.00

100.00MOV AVS 5(0) day -0.2

D @ D 030413-310715260DNH-NL W @ W 050413-310715XAO

Page 26: Weekly Charts and Analysis€¦ · Weekly Charts and Analysis ... The point and figure chart emphasises that the market was in a fairly volatile congestion pattern. However, it then

Copyright © Colin Nicholson Page 26

Daily Overlay View

Three Period NH – NL chart arrangement

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC2014

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG2015

-200.00

-100.00

0.00

100.00MOV AVS 5(0) day -0.2

D @ D 010814-310715260DNH-NL D @ D 010814-310715XAO