Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2019-03-19 · Phaeocystis sp. Low -...
Transcript of Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2019-03-19 · Phaeocystis sp. Low -...
HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae]
Week runs from Sunday to Saturday
Ireland: Predictions
ASP event: Low – continued steady slow climb. AZP event: High –moderate- constant fluctuation DSP event: Low - steady slow increase.PSP event: Very low - steady.
ASP: 7 week trend. At background levels with slow growth levels in general, Eastern shores currently slightly higher than other areas. Current environmental conditions and historic trends also do not indicate any immediate potential increase in risk.
AZP: No changes. Constant weekly fluctuation, no clear or stable pattern. High caution levels as a precaution ,in all areas, due to presence of potential cells presence a ( still at below reg. limit). On shore transportation likely and still approaching historic period of occurrence. This species has caused sudden acute issues in the past and rarely presents any trends.
DSP: 6 week pattern. Stable pattern of slow increase. Low levels of cells and related toxins present. Potential impact, if any , from current warm weather systems is unknown but will be monitored .Nearing start of historic season of occurrence.
PSP: No Change - Steady Winter season trend .Stable seasonal pattern of low cell levels and low likelihood of issues establishing unless suitable environmental conditions become established.
Blooms: Low - Potential for non toxic diatom spring bloom type species to increase to low bloom levels over the coming weeks. No toxic blooms currently indicated. Any unusual water discoloration should be noted and regional labs contacted if concerned /regarding possible need for additional sampling. All feedback is welcome at [email protected] .
NMP Current closures
ASP AZP DSP PSP
0 0 0 0
Week 12: March 17th -23rd 2019
HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae]
National Monitoring ProgrammeHISTORIC TRENDS
ASP events: mid-March to early May
AZP events: April to December
DSP events: May to December
PSP events: June to mid-July and end September; only in Cork Harbour
AZP
DSP
PTX
ASP
PSP
Levels from week 1 to present week. Regulatory limit - - - - - - -
DSP and Dinophysis sp. current trends
Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps
[current status of harmful and toxic algae]
Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks.
All levels of DSP biotoxin recorded - last 3 wks.
Current closures levels≥ DSP 0.16 µg/g
Comment
Wk. 12 – 7 week trend - slow
and relatively steady increase in
general. Areas historically prone
to issues should begin to be
more vigilant of approaching
historical impact season .
Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps
[current status of harmful and toxic algae]
Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks. All levels of AZP biotoxin recorded - last 3 wks.
AZP and Azadinium like species current trends
Current closures levels≥ AZP 0.16 µg/g
CommentsWk. 12 – Slight potentialdecrease indication, may berelated to weather pattern, inboth spread of potential cellsand toxin levels presence.High caution must remain dueto constant fluctuations, thepresence of potentialcausative species and theability of this toxin to occursuddenly with little or nowarning.
ASP
Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps
[current status of harmful and toxic algae]
ASP and Pseudo nitzschia sp. current trends
Current closures levels≥ASP 20 µg/g
CommentsWk. 12 - 5 week stable trend. Slow increase in cells as would be expected at this time and based on seasonal trends. In general, sudden increases not expected yet and no significant jump in toxins indicated. Some areas increasing at potentially faster rates than others (E).
Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks.
All levels of ASP biotoxin recorded – last 3 wks.
Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps
[current status of harmful and toxic algae]
PSP and Alexandrium sp. current trends
Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks. All levels of PSP biotoxin recorded – last 3 wks.
CommentsWk. 12 – 6 wk. steady trend .Continued steady trend of very low potential of bloom issues due to environmental conditions. Current presence and levels all low. Toxic bloom events are strongly linked to localised suitable environmental conditions.
Current closures levels≥ PSP 800 µg/Kg
Ireland Fish killing phytoplankton Distribution maps
[current status of harmful and toxic algae]
Karenia mikimotoi
(old name: Gyrodinium aureolum)
Current general conditions: Wk. 12
Karenia mikimotoi Low
Noctiluca scintillans Low
Coscinodiscus species Low - increasing
Phaeocystis sp. Low - increasing
Chaetoceros sp Low - increasing
Continued increase in cell numbers in most areas . The potential of
sudden blooms is still low as light and temperature levels are still
limited. Suitable environmental conditions for the establishment and
growth/spread of bloom conditions are not expected this week but
would be expected to begin to increase slowly at this time of year. Low
levels of Coscinodiscus sp. and Chaetoceros sp continue to be
observed in some areas.
Phaeocystis speciesKarenia mikimotoiHeterocapsa spp.Noctiluca scintillans
Alexandrium spp.
Any part of coastline
Has tended ,in past ,to be very site specific
Ireland Satellite data: surface chlorophyll and temperature maps
Top 5 phytoplankton cell levels in all areas last week
NW coast (M4) Unavailable wk.11SW coast (M3) Unavailable wk.11SE coast (M5) Above average by 0.73°C wk.11
Steady continued increase - All areasindicating increasing in seasonal levels of nontoxic plankton. General pattern still of lowlevels of cell biomass . Diatoms making upthe majority of the species present in mostsites and in some areas reaching low nontoxic bloom levels.
Week 11
Chlorophyll levels indicating potential increase in cell growth at sea in all areas this week, with only the Northern shorelines indicating potentially above average anomalies.
Rank Region Species Rounded Count
1 East Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima
4000
2 East Bacillaria spp. 4000
3 East Centric diatom 3000
4 East Paralia sp. 2000
5 East Skeletonema spp. 1000
1 North-West Skeletonema spp. 1080000
2 North-West Pennate diatom 5000
3 North-West Odontella spp. 3000
4 North-West Centric diatom 1000
5 North-West Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima
1000
1 South Skeletonema costatum 19000
2 South Thalassiosira spp. 18000
3 South Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii
13000
4 South Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima
10000
5 South Skeletonema spp. 10000
1 South-East Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima
4000
2 South-East Pennate diatom 3000
3 South-East Thalassiosira spp. 2000
4 South-East Skeletonema spp. 2000
5 South-East Centric diatom 1000
1 South-West Skeletonema costatum 14000
2 South-West Skeletonema spp. 11000
2 South-West Haptophytes 11000
4 South-West Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii
10000
5 South-West Paralia sulcata 10000
1 West Pennate diatom 32000
2 West Striatella spp. 5000
3 West Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima
4000
4 West Paralia sp. 1000
5 West Centric diatom <1000
1 West North-west Pennate diatom 22000
2 West North-west Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima
7000
3 West North-west Skeletonema spp. 4000
4 West North-west Asterionellopsis spp. 2000
5 West North-west Thalassiosira spp. 2000
1 West South-West Pennate diatom 9000
2 West South-West Skeletonema costatum 9000
3 West South-West Skeletonema spp. 8000
4 West South-West Thalassiosira spp. 4000
5 West South-West Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii
4000
Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water PathwayWeek runs from Sunday to Saturday
Week 23: 31 May – 6 June, 2015Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway
The maps show the most
likely transport pathways
for the next 3 days of
phytoplankton found along
the presented transects
(black lines off Mizen Head
and the Mouth of Bantry Bay)
and water depths (bottom,
20 metres and surface)
Bottom water Water @ 20 metres Surface water
Reddish colours represent areas
where phytoplankton remain
longest
Cooler colours represent areas
where phytoplankton remain for
shorter periods
Mixed directional movements, at all depths slightly more dominant in Northerly surface
direction, allowing for low mixing and incursions of offshore waters into inner bays areas.
Upwelling transportation possible , outer bay waters moving into inner bay areas , possibly
as far as mid bay regions .
SOUTHWEST: Bantry Bay Forecast for the next 3 days
Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway
Bantry Bay3 day estimated water flows at the mouth and mid-bay sections of Bantry Bay
T1
T1
Forecast for next 3 days
De
pth
20 m
20 m
Water surface
Sea bed
Flow (m3 s-1)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
IN
OUT
Shot Head cross section: Upwelling potential and
transportation in all inner bay areas from mid and
outer bay waters.
Moderate to strong upwelling and outer bay incursions from
offshore waters likely.
CURRENT inflowInflow is 5% greater than Long Term Mean at Shot Head
Inflow is 9% greater than Long Term Mean at mouth of Bay
Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water PathwayWeek runs from Sunday to Saturday
Week 23: 31 May – 6 June, 2015Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway
The maps show the most
likely transport pathways
for the next 3 days of
phytoplankton found along
the presented transects i.e.
white lines off Aughrus Point
and the Mouth of Killary
Harbour, and water depths
(bottom, 20 metres and
surface)
Reddish colours represent
areas where phytoplankton
remain longest
Cooler colours represent
areas where phytoplankton
remain for shorter periods
WEST: Killary Harbour Forecast for the next 3 days
Bottom water Water @ 20 metres Surface water
ClegganMixed directional movements in offshore deeper waters . Slight Northerly dominance in direction
predicted. Incursions and piling of offshore waters on all exposed shoreline areas.
KillaryUpwelling possibilities as far as mid bay regions minimum, allowing for some transportation of outer
bay waters into inner bay areas.
Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway
Killary Harbour - 3 day estimated water flows at the mouth of Killary Harbour
T1
23 m
T1
Killary Harbour
De
pth
CURRENT inflow
Inflow is 15% lower than Long Term Mean at mouth of Bay
Water surface
Forecast for next 3 days
Flow (m3 s-1)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
IN
OUT
Killary Harbour Mouth
cross section:
Continued potential
upwelling indicated as a
transportation
mechanism in the next
few days, allowing outer
bay waters to enter inner
bay areas.
Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway
West Coast - 3 day estimated water flows along a transect off Aughrus Point
T1
110 m
De
pth
Water surface
Forecast for next 3 days
Flow (m3 s-1)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
northward
flow
southward
flow
T1
Killary Harbour
Cleggan transect
20 m
Aughrus Point
Cleggan section: Continued strong
outer Southerly movements with
minor counter Northerly movements
in near shore areas.