Week 4: Presidential Race Report

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USA Presidential Race 2012 By Battleground States

Date Range: September 29 – October 5, 2012

3%

18%

12%

34%

18%

7% 8%

Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS

Middle Class Jobs/Economy

Budget/Deficit Obamacare

Foreign Policy

*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100

All Eight States

2

Share of Voice – Key Issues

Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)

KEY FINDINGS:

This week, due to the presidential debate on

Wednesday, October 3, people in the eight

states talked mostly about “Jobs/Economy”

(34.2%). The second most popular issue was

“Budget deficit” (18.6%). The issue “Foreign

Policy” decreased further in share of voice by

7.3%.

• Obama: Obama’s Sentiment Score

improved slightly by 1.7 this week. He only

led in sentiment in New Hampshire and

Nevada.

• Romney: By arguably winning the first

debate on Wednesday, October 3 (according

to many), Romney’s Sentiment Score saw a

boost of 10.1 this week. However, his

overall score was still at a negative score of

-0.3.

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change

Abortion/Choice 3.1% 4.9% 1.8%

Medicare/Social

Security 17.9% 15.8% 2.1%

Protecting the

middle class 11.8% 11.8% 0%

Jobs/Economy 34.2% 33.3% 0.9%

Budget deficit 18.6% 14.5% 4.1%

Obamacare 6.7% 4.7% 2.0%

Foreign Policy 7.7% 15.0% 7.3%

Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change

Obama -1.8 -3.5 1.7

Romney -0.3 -10.4 10.1

5%

14%

13%

34%

25%

4% 5%




Foreign Policy


Wisconsin

3



KEY FINDINGS:

Wisconsinites mostly discussed

“Jobs/Economy” (33.8%) and “Budget deficit”

(24.6%). They did not talk much about “Foreign

Policy”, which dropped by 10.7% in share of

voice.

• Obama: The volume of conversations about

Obama was roughly 4,000. His Sentiment

Score dropped by 7.4 to a negative score of

-3.1. This was due to the fact that

Wisconsinites displayed displeasure in their

comments with Obama’s performance in the

debate. They gave negative comments on

his plan for the economy and

unemployment.

• Romney: Romney led in volume this week

with over 5,000 mentions. He also led in

sentiment with a score of -2.6, which

increased by 16.4 from last week. He

received negative comments on his plan for

the middle class. However, many said that

he would be the one to restore the economy.


Obama -3.1 4.3 7.4

Romney -2.6 -19 16.4

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 14.1% 17.9% 3.8%

Protecting the

middle class 13.4% 13.4% 0%

Jobs/Economy 33.8% 27.2% 6.6%


Obamacare 4.1% 6.5% 2.4%



Virginia

4



KEY FINDINGS:

The two issues that had significant changes in

share of voice this week in Virginia were

“Jobs/Economy” and “Foreign Policy”. The

main issue in the debate, “Jobs/Economy”,

increased by 14.2% in share of voice, and

“Foreign Policy” decreased by 19.1% in share of

voice.

• Obama: The number of conversations

about Obama was around 10,000. His

Sentiment Score improved by 6.7 over the

last week. He was criticized for his pro-

choice stance and military spending.

• Romney: Romney not only led in volume

this week with over 12,000 mentions, but he

also led in sentiment with a score of -0.3.

He received compliments on his

performance in Wednesday’s debate.

However, some Virginians were still not

happy with his plan for the middle class.


Obama -1.2 -7.9 6.7

Romney -0.3 0 0.3

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 18.9% 14.7% 4.2%

Protecting the

middle class 12.1% 8.7% 3.4%

Jobs/Economy 35.1% 20.9% 14.2%


Obamacare 4.8% 7.3% 2.5%


3%

19%

12%

35%

18%

5% 8%




Foreign Policy


North Carolina

5



KEY FINDINGS:

“Jobs/Economy” was also the most popular

issue this week in North Carolina. In addition,

North Carolinians spoke more about

“Medicare/Social Security”, which increased by

8.3% in share of voice, and less about “Foreign

Policy”, which decreased by 9.0% in share of

voice.

• Obama: Obama continued to lead in

volume in North Carolina this week with

roughly 12,000 mentions. However, he lost

in sentiment with a negative score of -2.8.

There were more people commenting

negatively on the president, as they said

they did not see any improvements since

Obama took office.

• Romney: The volume of conversations

about Romney was around 11,000. His

Sentiment Score saw a boost of 18.7 from

last week, making him lead in sentiment this

week. Many North Carolinians did not think

that Romney’s health care would be better,

and that his tax break plan would not work

well. However, many believed that he would

be able to resolve the high unemployment

rate.


Obama -2.8 -1.5 1.3

Romney -0.9 -19.6 18.7

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 18.6% 10.3% 8.3%

Protecting the

middle class 11.7% 12.7% 1.0%

Jobs/Economy 35.1% 30.5% 4.6%


Obamacare 7.8% 4.2% 3.6%


3%

18%

12%

35%

16%

8% 8%




Foreign Policy

3%

19%

12%

35%

17%

7% 7%




Foreign Policy


Florida

6



KEY FINDINGS:

The only issue that had a significant change in

share of voice in Florida was “Budget deficit”,

which increased by 6.0%. “Jobs/Economy”,

however, remained the most popular issue with

35.4% in share of voice.

• Obama: The number of mentions about

Obama in Florida was around 20,000, and

his Sentiment Score increased slightly by

3.0. However, he still received more

negative comments, leaving him with a

negative score of -0.7. He was criticized by

Floridians mostly on the high unemployment

rate and the poor economy.

• Romney: Romney led in volume with over

25,000 mentions, and in sentiment with a

positive score of 2.6 (+12.3). He mostly

received positive comments from the debate

on Wednesday, especially on his plan for the

middle class.


Obama -0.7 -3.7 3.0

Romney 2.6 -9.7 12.3

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 18.7% 19.3% 0.6%

Protecting the

middle class 11.9% 12.8% 0.9%

Jobs/Economy 35.4% 38.1% 2.7%


Obamacare 6.8% 4.3% 2.5%



Ohio

7



KEY FINDINGS:

This week, Ohioans talked mostly about the 3

main issues in the debate: “Jobs/Economy”

(34.9%), “Budget deficit” (18.6%), and

“Medicare/Social Security” (16.7%).

• Obama: With 12,000 mentions and a

Sentiment Score of -1.9, Obama lost in

volume as well as sentiment in Ohio this

week. He was heavily criticized on the issue

“Budget deficit”, as many Ohioans were

unhappy that Obama broke his promise of

reducing the deficit, by instead increasing it

further.


14,000 mentions. His Sentiment Score,

which was -1.7, was a bit better than

Obama’s. Many Ohioans were not

convinced of his health care plan and his tax

break plan.


Obama -1.9 -4.6 2.7

Romney -1.7 -12.9 11.2

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 16.7% 14.7% 2.0%

Protecting the

middle class 8.2% 10.4% 2.2%

Jobs/Economy 34.9% 35.1% 0.2%


Obamacare 8.4% 3.6% 4.8%


4%

17% 8%

35%

19%

8% 9%




Foreign Policy


Colorado

8



KEY FINDINGS:

Coloradoans shifted their attention this week

from “Foreign Policy” to “Medicare/Social

Security”. As a result, share of voice for

“Medicare/Social Security” increased by 7.0%,

and “Foreign Policy” decreased by 5.8%.

“Jobs/Economy” was still the most popular

issue.

• Obama: The number of conversations

about Obama was around 5,000. His

Sentiment Score dropped further by 2.2 over

last week, as he received negative

comments on his spending and his plan for

the middle class.


5,500 mentions. He also led in sentiment

slightly with a score of -3.5. Some

Coloradoans said that all of his plans for the

economy and the budget presented in the

debate were “all talk and no proof”.


Obama -4.1 -1.9 2.2

Romney -3.5 -17.1 13.6

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 17.4% 10.4% 7.0%

Protecting the

middle class 10.9% 12.0% 1.1%

Jobs/Economy 31.2% 35.3% 4.1%


Obamacare 6.3% 4.5% 1.8%


3%

18%

11%

31%

24%

6% 7%




Foreign Policy


New Hampshire

9



KEY FINDINGS:

People in New Hampshire focused most of their

attention on the issue “Protecting the middle

class” this week. It became the most popular

issue this week, after seeing a huge boost of

26.7% in share of voice.

• Obama: The volume of conversations about

Obama was roughly 800, but he led in

sentiment with a positive score of 2.5. He

received support for Medicare and his pro-

choice stance.


1,000 mentions, but his Sentiment Score

decreased further by 6.6 to a negative score

of -11.6. He was mostly criticized for the

fact that his tax cuts and Medicare only

benefited the wealthy.


Obama 2.5 -5.3 7.8

Romney -11.6 -5.0 6.6

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 14.5% 21.3% 6.8%

Protecting the

middle class 36.0% 9.3% 26.7%

Jobs/Economy 24.9% 31.2% 6.3%


Obamacare 5.4% 3.4% 2.0%


1%

15%

36% 25%

13% 5% 5%




Foreign Policy


Nevada

10



KEY FINDINGS:

Nevadans talked more about “Budget deficit”

this week, and less about “Jobs/Economy”. As

a result, share of voice for “Budget deficit”

increased by 12.7%, while “Jobs/Economy”

dropped by 14.4%. However, the latter was still

the most popular issue in Nevada.

• Obama: The volume of mentions about

Obama was around 2,700. His Sentiment

Score increased by 5.9 from last week, but it

still stayed negative at -2.2. Many

Nevadans said they did not trust his

Medicare plan, Obamacare.

• Romney: Although Romney led in volume

with over 3,000 mentions this week, he lost

in sentiment with a negative score of -5.3, as

he received many negative comments on his

health care plan (like Obama).


Obama -2.2 -8.1 5.9

Romney -5.3 -19.6 14.3

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 20.1% 12.6% 7.5%

Protecting the

middle class 15.5% 12.0% 3.5%

Jobs/Economy 25.1% 39.5% 14.4%


Obamacare 5.6% 3.6% 2.0%


2%

20%

16%

25%

23%

6% 8%




Foreign Policy

Candidate Sentiment Score* by State

11

State Obama Romney

Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change

Wisconsin -3.1 4.3 7.4 -2.6 -19 16.4

Virginia -1.2 -7.9 6.7 -0.3 0 0.3

North Carolina -2.8 -1.5 1.3 -0.9 -19.6 18.7

Florida -0.7 -3.7 3.0 2.6 -9.7 12.3

Ohio -1.9 -4.6 2.7 -1.7 -12.9 11.2

Colorado -4.1 -1.9 2.2 -3.5 -17.1 13.6

New Hampshire 2.5 -5.3 7.8 -11.6 -5.0 6.6

Nevada -2.2 -8.1 5.9 -5.3 -19.6 14.3

• Romney’s Sentiment Score improved significantly this week in Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, Ohio,

Colorado, and Nevada. He had one positive score in Florida.

• Obama’s only positive score was in New Hampshire. He only led in sentiment in New Hampshire and

Nevada.


Share of Voice for Key Issues by State

12

State Abortion/

Choice

Medicare/

Social

Security

Protecting

the middle

class

Jobs/

Economy

Budget

deficit Obamacare

Foreign

Policy

Wisconsin 5.4% 14.1% 13.4% 33.8% 24.6% 4.1% 4.6%

Virginia 2.8% 18.9% 12.1% 35.1% 17.7% 4.8% 8.6%

North

Carolina 3.0% 18.6% 11.7% 35.1% 16.1% 7.8% 7.7%

Florida 2.7% 18.7% 11.9% 35.4% 17.2% 6.8% 7.3%

Ohio 3.7% 16.7% 8.2% 34.9% 18.6% 8.4% 9.5%

Colorado 3.0% 17.4% 10.9% 31.2% 24.2% 6.3% 7.0%

New

Hampshire 1.4% 14.5% 36.0% 24.9% 13.0% 5.4% 4.8%

Nevada 2.4% 20.1% 15.5% 25.1% 23.3% 5.6% 8.0%

• “Jobs/Economy” was still the most popular issue in all states, except for New Hampshire where the issue

“Protecting the middle class” had the lead. Meanwhile, “Budget deficit” was most popular in Wisconsin,

while “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in Nevada.

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Week 4: Presidential Race Report

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