Week 11: Ecological Effects of Climate Change€¦ · 2. Individual species responses to climate...
Transcript of Week 11: Ecological Effects of Climate Change€¦ · 2. Individual species responses to climate...
Week 11: Ecological Effects of Climate Change
Fig 18.1 – From IPCC 2007
1. Climate Change: Predictions and complexities
2. Individual species responses to climate change
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
2
Fig 18.1 – From IPCC 2007
Global Climate Change:Unambiguous Physical Changes
~0.74 °C observed in the past century
1. Climate Change: Predictions and complexities
Predicted mean increases in temperature:
Interna<onal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report 2007
1.4 – 3.6 °C during the next century
Global Climate Change – 2007 Predictions:Increase in surface temperatures over next century
1. Climate Change: Predictions and complexities
4
1. Climate Change: Predictions and complexities
Global Climate Change - 2013 Predictions:Increase in surface temperatures over next century
Interna<onal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report 2013
5 Fig 18.2
Climate change is more complex than changes in only mean temperature
Observed trends in average temperature (C change / yr)
Observed trends in total precipitation (% change /yr)
IPCC 2001
§ Increased variance in T§ Magnitude dependent on location§ Changes in precipitation
1. Climate Change: Predictions and complexities
Climate is the fundamental determinant of species distributions
WhiJaker, R.H. (1977) Communi'es & Ecosystems. 6
2. Individual species responses to climate change
What is the fate of a population ���if its environment becomes unfavorable?
evolu<on ex<nc<on range shiP range contrac<on
range expansion
before:
a5er:
phenology shiP
ADAPT GO
EXTINCT SHIFT IN TIME
SHIFT IN SPACE
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2. Individual species responses to climate change
Phenology���timing of life cycle activities and ecological events
8
2. Individual species responses to climate change
growing season!
+ warming
9 Courtesy of EM Wolkovich
2. Individual species responses to climate change Phenology���timing of life cycle activities and ecological events
growing season!
+ warming
10 Courtesy of EM Wolkovich
2. Individual species responses to climate change Changes in Phenology���timing of life cycle activities and ecological events
Change in sp
ring <m
ing
in days/de
cade
Parmesan 2007
Changes in Phenology���timing of life cycle activities and ecological events
2. Individual species responses to climate change
Changes in Phenology���timing of life cycle activities and ecological events
2. Individual species responses to climate change
Adapted from Root et al. 2003
Spatial Responses: Range (and abundance) shifts
Parmesan et al. 1999, Nature
range contraction
Poleward shifts
range expansion
13
2. Individual species responses to climate change
Spatial Responses: Range (and abundance) shifts
Parmesan et al. 1999, Nature
range contraction
Poleward shifts
range expansion
14
2. Individual species responses to climate change
Perry et al. 2005 Science 308: 1912-‐1915 15
2. Individual species responses to climate change
2. Individual species responses to climate change
heritable, genetic changes
black cappitcher-plant mosquitoYukon red squirrel
Selection will favor strategies that allow for population persistence in the same location in response to the changing climate.
Phenotypic plasticity: ability of an organism to change its phenotype in response to changes in environment;§ encompasses morphological, physiological, behavioral, phenological changes§ fundamental to coping with environmental variation
Science.
2. Individual species responses to climate change
Experiments that manipulate climate ���used for over 20 years
18 Courtesy of EM Wolkovich
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
EXPERIMENT: warm alpine meadow with hea<ng lamps RESPONSE: compare phenology and plant abundance between treatments
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3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Experiment: increase temperature ���(and speed up spring snowmelt) in alpine meadow
Experiment: increase temperature ���(and speed up spring snowmelt) in alpine meadow
RESULTS: - Plants flowered earlier in
warming treatment (by 1.5 – 6 days)
- Warming altered community composi<on (more shrubs, fewer flowering plants)
Dunne, Harte & Taylor, 2003, Ecol. Monographs Harte & Shaw, 1995, Science
Flowering plants Grasses Shrubs
Julian date Biom
ass (g/m
2 )
?
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3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Experiment: manipulate variability in rainfall
Rainfall manipula<on shelters Konza Prairie, Kansas
Same TOTAL rainfall, changed frequency and intensity of storms
Ambient rainfall many small storms
Altered rainfall fewer, larger storms
Precipita<on (mm)
Date
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Diversity
(H’)
Do experiments and observations ���predict the same responses to warming?
Experiments! Observations!
vs.!
22 Courtesy of EM Wolkovich
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Global synthesis ���of warming effects on plant phenology
23 Courtesy of EM Wolkovich
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Common metric for both data types
- Calculated change in days per °C!
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Experiments show smaller effects
1,634 species! matching species!
Wolkovich et. al., Nature, 201225
Courtesy of EM Wolkovich
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Why do experiments underpredict ���long-term responses?
26 Courtesy of EM Wolkovich
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Making predictions with experiments that manipulate climate
- Can test mechanisms by which species abundances change
- Can address effects of climate on mul<ple species simultaneously
- Best way to handle climate change that hasn’t yet been experienced
Advantages Limita<ons - Experiments underpredict
responses - Predic<ons across large
spa<al and temporal scales are limited due to difficulty of manipula<ons
- Short dura<ons usually don’t allow <me for evolu<on to occur
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3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Building bioclimate envelope modelsEn
vironm
ental V
ariables
Species
Distrib
u<on
Model calibra<on Model evalua<on
1. Create a sta<s<cal model of current species distribu<on by choosing the set of environmental variables that is best correlated with the distribu<on
2. Using model results and predic<ons for future climate, predict species distribu<on in the future
Final model: project future distribu<ons
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3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Making predictions with bioclimate envelopes
Abies amabalis (Pacific silver fir)
Hamann & Wang, 2006, Ecology
Mean annual temperature
ClimateBC (UBC Centre for Forestry Conserva<on Gene<cs)
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
How will the distribution of Pacific silver fir ���in B.C. change with climate change?
Abies amabalis
Hamann & Wang, 2006, Ecology 30
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Making predictions with climate envelopes
- Can make predic<ons across large spa<al and temporal scales
- Can be done with data that are rela<vely easy to get
Advantages Limita<ons - - - -
Environm
ental
Varia
bles
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3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Assumptions about movement
Ability to move through landscape
Dispersal ability
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3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Assumptions about species interactions
Phenological mismatch
Loss of key mutualist
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3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Assumptions about rates of change
Velocity of climate change may outpace speed at which species can respond
Non-‐linear responses are likely
Loarie et al. 2009, Nature
Patz & Olson 2006, PNAS
Days that a malaria parasite needs to develop inside a mosquito
34
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Climate velocity
Climate velocity 1960-‐2009
to the two-dimensional spatial gradient in temper-ature (in °C/km, calculated over a 3°-by-3° grid),oriented along the spatial gradient. We introducedthe seasonal climate shift (in days/decade) as theratio of the long-term temperature trend (°C/year) tothe seasonal rate of change in temperature (°C/day).We present seasonal shifts for spring and fallglobally using April and October temperatures.
The median rate of warming since 1960has been more than three times faster on land(0.24°C/decade) than at sea (0.07°C/decade,Fig. 1A and table S1). At the scale of our anal-ysis, median spatial gradients in temperature onland (0.0082°C/km, Fig. 1B and table S1) aregreater than those at sea (0.0030°C/km) becauseof the greater latitudinal and topographical tem-
perature differences on land, whereas large-scalecurrents tend to reduce small-scale variability inocean surface temperatures. When spatial gradi-ents are combined with rates of long-term tem-perature change, the resulting median velocity ofisotherms across the ocean (21.7 km/decade) is79% of that on land (27.3 km/decade), but whencomparing only those latitudes where both landand ocean are present (50°S to 80°N), velocitiesin the ocean (27.5 km/decade) are similar to thoseon land (27.4 km/decade). The frequency dis-tribution of velocities in the ocean is bimodal(Fig. 2A), with a broader spread of positive val-ues in the ocean than on land and many negativevalues in cooling areas, including the SouthernOcean and Eastern Boundary Current regions
with increased upwelling (Fig. 1, A and C, andfig. S1D). The relative proportions of warm-ing and cooling areas influence the land/oceancomparison (table S1): With less cooling, me-dian velocity in the Northern Hemisphere oceanis 37.3 km/decade but only 30.3 km/decade onland, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere me-dian velocities are 17.6 and 14.6 km/decade forland and ocean, respectively. The velocity of cli-mate change is two to seven times faster in theocean than on land in the sub-Arctic and within15° of the equator (Fig. 1C), but ocean and landvelocities are similar at most other latitudes (20°to 50°S and 15° to 45°N).
At the scales studied, the velocity of climatechange is very patchy on land, whereas the ocean
>2010 - 205 - 102 - 51 - 20.5 - 1-0.5 - 0.5-1 - -0.5-2 - -1-5 - -2-10 - -5-20 - -10< -20
Seasonal shift (days/decade)
> 200100 - 20050 - 10020 - 5010 - 205 - 10-5 - 5-10 - -5-20 - -10-50 - -20-100 - -50-200 - -100< -200
Velocity (km/decade)
0.02
0Spatial gradient (°C/km)
0.5
-0.5
Temperature change (°C/decade)
A
B
C
D
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
-0.2 0 0.2 0.4
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
0 0.01 0.02 0.03
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
-50 0 50 100 150
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Fig. 1. (A) Trends in land (Climate Research Unit data set CRU TS3.1) and ocean(Hadley Centre data set Had1SST 1.1) temperatures for 1960–2009, with latitudemedians (red, land; blue, ocean). (B) Spatial gradients in annual average tem-peratures using the same data; cross-hatching shows areas with shallow spatialgradients (<0.1°C/degree). (C) The velocity of climate change (km/decade) is thevelocity at which isotherms move: positive in warming areas, negative in cooling
areas, and generally faster in areas of shallow spatial gradients. (D) Seasonal shift(days/decade) is the change in timing of monthly temperatures, shown for April,representing Northern Hemisphere spring and Southern Hemisphere fall: positivewhere timing advances, negative where timing is delayed. Cross-hatching showsareas with small seasonal temperature change (<0.2°C/month), where seasonalshifts may be large. See fig. S3 for October seasonal shifts.
02468
101214
-200 -50 -10 -1 0 1 10 50 200 500 1000 2000Velocity (km/decade)
LandOcean October
AprilN hemisphere
SpringS hemisphere
Fall
AdvanceDelay
S hemisphereSpringN hemisphere
Fall
B
C
Per
cent
age
Per
cent
age
Per
cent
age
A
0
5
10
15
20
-100 -50 -20-10-5 -2-1 -0.1 0 0.1 1 2 5 10 20 50 100Seasonal shift (days/decade)
LandOcean
0
5
10
15
20
-100 -50 -20-10-5 -2-1 -0.1 0 0.1 1 2 5 10 20 50 100Seasonal shift (days/decade)
LandOceanFig. 2. Frequency histograms for (A) velocity of climate change and
seasonal shifts for (B) October (see also fig. S3) and (C) April for land andocean surface temperatures. Peaks associated with positive and negativevelocities and seasonal shifts correspond to areas of warming and cooling.
www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 334 4 NOVEMBER 2011 653
REPORTS
on
Nov
embe
r 3, 2
011
ww
w.s
cien
cem
ag.o
rgD
ownl
oade
d fro
m
tothe
two-dim
ensionalspatialgradientintem
per-ature
(in°C/km
,calculatedover
a3°-by-3°
grid),oriented
alongthe
spatialgradient.Weintroduced
theseasonal
climate
shift(in
days/decade)as
theratio
ofthelong-term
temperature
trend(°C
/year)tothe
seasonalrateofchange
intem
perature(°C
/day).Wepresent
seasonalshifts
forspring
andfall
globallyusing
Apriland
Octobertem
peratures.The
median
rateof
warm
ingsince
1960has
beenmore
thanthree
times
fasteron
land(0.24°C
/decade)than
atsea
(0.07°C/decade,
Fig.1Aand
tableS1).A
tthe
scaleof
ouranal-
ysis,median
spatialgradients
intem
peratureon
land(0.0082°C
/km,Fig.
1Band
tableS1)
aregreater
thanthose
atsea(0.0030°C
/km)because
ofthe
greaterlatitudinal
andtopographicaltem
-
peraturedifferences
onland,w
hereaslarge-scale
currentstend
toreduce
small-scale
variabilityin
oceansurface
temperatures.W
henspatialgradi-
entsare
combined
with
ratesof
long-termtem
-perature
change,theresulting
median
velocityof
isothermsacross
theocean
(21.7km
/decade)is
79%ofthaton
land(27.3
km/decade),butw
hencom
paringonly
thoselatitudes
where
bothland
andocean
arepresent(50°S
to80°N
),velocitiesinthe
ocean(27.5
km/decade)are
similarto
thoseon
land(27.4
km/decade).
The
frequencydis-
tributionof
velocitiesin
theocean
isbim
odal(Fig.2A
),with
abroader
spreadof
positiveval-
uesinthe
oceanthan
onland
andmany
negativevalues
incooling
areas,including
theSouthern
Ocean
andEastern
Boundary
Current
regions
with
increasedupw
elling(Fig.1,A
andC,and
fig.S1D
).The
relativeproportions
ofwarm
-ing
andcooling
areasinfluence
theland/ocean
comparison
(tableS1):
With
lesscooling,
me-
dianvelocity
inthe
Northern
Hem
isphereocean
is37.3
km/decade
butonly
30.3km
/decadeon
land,whereas
inthe
SouthernHem
isphereme-
dianvelocities
are17.6
and14.6
km/decade
forland
andocean,respectively.T
hevelocity
ofcli-mate
changeistwoto
seventim
esfaster
inthe
oceanthan
onland
inthe
sub-Arctic
andwithin
15°ofthe
equator(Fig.1C),but
oceanand
landvelocities
aresim
ilaratm
ostotherlatitudes
(20°to
50°Sand
15°to
45°N).
Atthe
scalesstudied,the
velocityof
climate
changeisvery
patchyon
land,whereas
theocean
>2010 -
205
-10
2-
51
-2
0.5-
1-0.5
-0.5
-1-
-0.5-2
--1
-5-
-2-10
--5
-20-
-10<
-20
Seasonal shift (days/decade)
> 200100 - 20050 - 10020 - 5010 - 205 - 10-5 - 5-10 - -5-20 - -10-50 - -20-100 - -50-200 - -100< -200
Velocity (km
/decade)
0.020S
patial gradient (°C/km
)
0.5
-0.5
Temperature change (°C
/decade)
AB
CD
-90
-60
-30 0 30 60 90
-0.20
0.20.4
-90
-60
-30 0 30 60 90
00.01
0.020.03
-90
-60
-30 0 30 60 90
-500
50100
150
-90
-60
-30 0 30 60 90-10-5
05
1015
20
Fig.1.(A)Trendsinland
(Climate
ResearchUnitdata
setCRUTS3.1)and
ocean(HadleyCentre
datasetHad1SST1.1)tem
peraturesfor1960–2009,withlatitude
medians
(red,land;blue,ocean).(B)Spatialgradientsin
annualaveragetem
-peratures
usingthe
samedata;cross-hatching
showsareas
withshallow
spatialgradients(<0.1°C/degree).(C)The
velocityofclim
atechange
(km/decade)isthe
velocityatwhich
isothermsm
ove:positiveinwarm
ingareas,negative
incooling
areas,andgenerallyfasterin
areasofshallowspatialgradients.(D
)Seasonalshift(days/decade)isthe
changeintim
ingofm
onthlytem
peratures,shownforApril,
representingNorthern
Hemisphere
springand
SouthernHem
ispherefall:positive
wheretim
ingadvances,negative
wheretim
ingisdelayed.Cross-hatching
showsareas
withsm
allseasonaltemperature
change(<0.2°C/m
onth),whereseasonal
shiftsmay
belarge.See
fig.S3forOctoberseasonalshifts.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-200-50
-10-1
01
1050
200500
10002000
Velocity (km
/decade)
LandO
ceanO
ctober
April
N hem
isphereS
pringS
hemisphere
Fall
Advance
Delay
S hem
isphereS
pringN
hemisphere
Fall
BC
Percentage
Percentage
Percentage
A
0 5 10 15 20-100-50
-20-10-5
-2-1-0.1
00.1
12
510
2050
100S
easonal shift (days/decade)
LandO
cean
0 5 10 15 20-100-50
-20-10
-5-2-1
-0.10
0.11
25
1020
50100
Seasonal shift (days/decade)
LandO
ceanFig.
2.Frequency
histogramsfor
(A)velocity
ofclim
atechange
andseasonalshifts
for(B)O
ctober(see
alsofig.S3)and
(C)Aprilforland
andocean
surfacetem
peratures.Peaks
associatedwith
positiveand
negativevelocities
andseasonalshiftscorrespond
toareas
ofwarming
andcooling.
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ag.orgSC
IENCE
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BER2011
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REPORTS
on November 3, 2011www.sciencemag.orgDownloaded from
Burrows et al. 2011 Science
miles per decade
> 120
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-5 to 5
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Fish follow climate velocity
Pinsky et al. in review
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Fish follow climate velocity
Pinsky et al. in review
Short-term cooling and
to south
Summary: making predictions with climate envelopes
- Can make predic<ons across large spa<al and temporal scales
- Can be done with data that are rela<vely easy to get
Advantages Limita<ons - No interac<ons with other
species - Assume species can move to
the new habitat – dispersal limita<on; habitat fragmenta<on
- Assume response to climate is linear
- Ignore evolu<onary changes
41
3. Methods for predicting ecological effects
Predictions for future global extinctions
Thomas et al. 2004: We predict, on the basis of mid-‐range climate-‐warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'commiJed to ex<nc<on'.
42