WebRTC Market Trends & Dynamics - RTC...

WebRTC Market Trends & Dynamics

Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

IIT RTC Conference, October 2015

[email protected] @disruptivedean

(Royalty-free images from pixabay.com)

mailto:[email protected]



About Disruptive Analysis

Tech/telecom analyst house & futurist consulting

Cross-silo, contrarian, independent

Forecasting & anti-forecasting

Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs

Consultant & advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors

Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia

Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015

Most innovation occurs at intersections of trends


Chapter by Dean Bubley:

“The Future of the Phone Call”

Other Chapters cover:

AI & machine-learning

Analytics & Big Data

Contextual computing

Power of the crowd

Wearables & quantified-self

3D-printing

IoT, Robots & drones

Autonomous vehicles

Longevity & human enhancement

Green Tech & Food

Financial systems & money

Political & social change

Background trend: “Peak telephone”


136%

74%

63%

40% 38%

15% 15%

5% 5% 1% 0%

0% - 7% - 7%

- 12% - 14% -14% -20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

IND CHN BRA RUS POL SGP FRA AUS JPN ITA KOR

GER NED USA ESP SWE UK

Source: Ofcom, IHS, Disruptive Analysis

Aggregate Fixed+Mobile Outgoing Voice

Telephony Volumes, Minutes, 2013 vs. 2008

UK telephony minutes down

4% more in 2014 vs 2013

Communications purpose: Why = Where * How


Generic

communications

services &

systems

Where do we

communicate?

• Industry

• Application

• Geography

How do we

communicate?

• Video/voice

• Messaging

• Timelines

• UIs & APIs

Why do we

communicate?

• Outcomes

• Value

• Context

Devices & IoT

WebRTC use-cases & platforms


Enterprise

Telcos & other SPs

Cloud PaaS, APIs & SDKs Tools & Enablers

Consumer Web/Apps

WebRTC on >6bn devices by 2019

Million WebRTC

devices worldwide,

year-end

Source: Disruptive Analysis

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other (TV+M2M/IoT)

Smartphones

Tablets

PCs


WebRTC trajectory has changed


Peer-to-Peer Gateways & extensions

Embedded & integral

Mobile

WebRTC integrated & embedded in solutions


Warning: NSFW!

Mobile WebRTC is already mainstream


Enterprise comms becoming “dis-unified”?


UC

core

WebRTC APIs Customer

interaction

Collaboration &

conferencing

Vertical

apps

Mobility Horizontal

apps

UC extended by WebRTC Comms “disunified” by WebRTC

User UC

Conferencing

Contact

centre

Comms-enriched

apps & cloud

services

WCC & plug-ins

Standalone vertical

comms apps

Mobile apps

Future Business Communications Scenario 1


Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?

Extend on-net services

& IMS / SS7

Faster/ cheaper

web svcs & mobile apps

Sell packaged WebRTC

services to subscriber

Enhance developer platform

Strengthen enterprise &

verticals


Also:

Content / IPTV / CDNs

invest / incubate /

acquire

Improve own CRM &

systems

M2M, devices etc

Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?

2 commercial SP offers

Telenor appear.in

+ 4 others

Sprint + 3 others

TF TokBox

AT&T API

+ 3 others

Telstra MyCare Manager

+ 3 others

Other

3 TV-oriented SP

WebRTC offers

4+ known internal use-

cases of WebRTC

2 messaging solutions

with WebRTC internals

Extend on-net services & IMS / SS7

Developer

platform

Faster/ cheaper

standalone apps

Core services

extension

Enterprise /

verticals

Resale /

partnership


WebRTC platform & vendor ecosystem complex


WebRTC PaaS &

gateways

Telcos / SPs

Acting as integrator / reseller

Built into unique service

Systems Integrators

General IT

integrator

Software & app vendors

3rd party apps & plfms

In-house

Consultants & agencies

WebRTC specialist

Digital & mobile design

Lead WebRTC use-cases, Oct 2015

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC report update Oct 2015

• Contact centres / support • Consumer video-chat • Developer SDKs/platforms • Conferencing extensions

• Workstream collaboration • Education/training/healthcare • Video ID-checking • Novel & non-telephony VoIP • CDNs, File/screen-sharing • IPTV & personal broadcast

Live & commercial

• Full-scale corporate conferencing • Vertical-specific UC & collaboration • Telco VoLTE/IMS extension • Telco internal • Early IoT use-cases

Pilots / pre-

commercial

Trials & demos

• Entertainment & consumer electronics • Mainstream M2M & IoT • Public Safety

WebRTC user base: expect rapid growth


Million

Internet

users,

year-end

Source: Disruptive Analysis preliminary forecasts, Oct 2015 Note: exclude M2M & CDN use

Based on individuals

Includes personal + work use

ALTERED by

context

???? Other

definitions

“Context” in context: types of comms

IN context

(eg in-app)

USING

contextual

data

WITH context

(eg cross-

channel or

agent)


Conclusions

>100m users (regular / occasional)

Device / browser support advancing fast

Multiple usage domains (consumer, business…)

Aligns with direction of communications:

Fragmented

Purposeful

Contextual

Vertical

Cloud-based

Mobile

“Beyond the call”

Complex for vendors & SPs to navigate / monetise


www.disruptive-analysis.com

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysis

Appear.in/disruptiveanalysis


http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/






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