Third Lebanon War

Design: Brian Train (inspired by an original game system by Joe Miranda)Development: Brian TrainSuggestions: Paul Finch, Terence CoPlaytesters: Michel Boucher, Terence Co

Version: 19 March 2012 (revised version for Modern War magazine) Words: 12,154

1.0 IntroductionThird Lebanon War is an operational level wargame of combat operations in Lebanon. There are two scenarios in the game. The context of the basic scenario is that some time in the near future (2012-2017) Israel has decided to mount an invasion of southern Lebanon to eliminate the threat posed by the continued presence and actions of the Hezbollah organization, but on a much larger and more destructive scale than the 2006 incursion. One player (the IDF) takes the role of the commander of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF); the other (the Insurgent) the role of the commander of the Hezbollah irregular forces. The Insurgent player may also receive units from other countries (Syria or Iran) if certain events occur to cause them to enter the game (players may also agree to have these additional forces in the mix from the beginning of the game, or not to include them at all). There is also a 2006 invasion scenario that provides a shorter game, and highlights some of the changes made by both sides since the earlier campaign.

2.0 Game Equipment

1 11x17" area map of northern Israel and southern Lebanon (with Game Turn Track, Victory Point Track)1 Battle Mat1 set of 180 double-sided 5/8" square game pieces (Task Force Headquarters, Tactical Units and game function markers)24 IDF and 24 Insurgent Joint Operations Chits (including optional chits)2 Order of Battle (OOB) mats1 rules booklet

You will also need at least two 6-sided dice (2d6) needed for resolving battles and game events.

2.1 The Game MapThe game map shows an area encompassing northern Israel and southern Lebanon, at a ground scale of approximately --- miles to the inch. It is divided into hexagon shaped Zones, in three categories:

Urban (a major population centre, e.g. the cities of Tyre, Sidon and Nabatiye), Populated (full of villages and small towns, and well roaded) and Remote (rough terrain with few inhabitants or roads).

Units move and conduct operations within these Zones. There are also Sanctuary Zones: one for the IDF (representing secure bases in central Israel) and two for the Insurgents (northern Lebanon and Syria: note that the Insurgent cannot use Syria as a Sanctuary until the Zone is “activated” by game events). These areas are generally inviolable by the enemy player (exception: the IDF player may enter and conduct operations in the Insurgent player’s sanctuaries with SOF units (only), and may conduct Airstrikes against enemy units there). Each Sanctuary also has a box inside it for units eliminated in combat called the “Dead Pile”. An unlimited number of units may be present in any Zone or Sanctuary.

2.2 The Playing PiecesThe playing pieces represent typical military (both regular and irregular) units that could be involved in the battle. The numbers and symbols on the playing pieces represent the strength and type of unit represented by that playing piece. The IDF player controls the blue units. The Insurgent player controls the Hezbollah (yellow) units, but may also control units from other

countries (Syria: green; Iran: yellow but marked IR).

2.21 Units. Units represent the forces with which you maneuver and conduct combat on the map. There are two general types of units:

Task Force Headquarters (TF HQs). These represent the command and control structures (leaders, staff groups, cadre) for groups of regular Tactical Units. Each TF HQ has a unit identification number and a corresponding holding box on the OOB mat into which regular Tactical Units are placed. It does not have any intrinsic strength and does not have any Efficiency Ratings itself (but see optional rule O3.4).

Tactical Units. These are the 5/8" square units. They represent military formations from company (1-300 men) to division (7,000+) size. Most are brigades, representing several thousand men and vehicles. Each unit has two Efficiency Ratings printed on its counter, representing its relative effectiveness to conduct operations of various types (J-2 and J-3 respectively). For example, an IDF armour brigade in Concentrated mode has a J-2 Efficiency Rating of 1 (it has noisy tanks which make it difficult to sneak up on the enemy, but its structure includes a light reconnaissance squadron) and a J-3 Efficiency Rating of 7 (showing its high firepower in battle).

Tactical Units are divided into two categories: regular and irregular. This distinction is important for many game functions.

Regular units include IDF (except for IDF SOF) and Syrian (except for Missile) Tactical Units. These units have different counters to show their different modes (Concentrated or Dispersed). Tactical Units are generally placed in the Holding box for each Task Force, thus providing that Task Force's mission capabilities. Tactical Units may also be placed on the map as single detached units.

Irregular units include IDF SOF, non-Syrian Insurgent (Hezbollah and Iranian) and all rocket/missile Tactical Units. These have their Efficiency Ratings printed on one side only, with the other (blank) side representing the unit operating in Underground mode. These units may not be part of Task Forces and are not placed in Holding boxes, but remain on the map.

2.211 Unit Types Armor: a heavy unit employing mainly Main Battle Tanks. Mechanized Infantry: an infantry unit that rides and deploys from wheeled and tracked

Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Light infantry: a lightly equipped infantry unit that either walks or rides in trucks/ light

wheeled vehicles. SOF (Special Operations Forces): soldiers experienced in long-range patrolling, raids and

covert operations. Combat Support Unit (CSU): A composite unit that represents a grouping of smaller combat

asset units, such as artillery, engineer, and logistical support units. Militia: lightly equipped part-time fighters recruited from local villages. Guerrilla: full-time fighters, with better equipment and more training than militia. Main Force: better-equipped and trained fighters, the Insurgent equivalent to regular light

infantry. Rocket/Missile: small groups of short or long-range rocket or missile launchers that are

used by the Insurgent player to bombard civilian or military infrastructure targets in Israel. Dummy: these represent small groups of fighters, rumours, deception measures, or just

bad intelligence. These units are always in Underground mode and exist only to confuse the IDF player. They are removed when discovered by IDF Tactical Intelligence or other events; however, there are a lot of them and they can be regenerated.

2.212 Unit size symbolsXXX: corps (Syrian TF HQ only)XX: division (IDF TF HQ only, and Syrian Tactical Units)X: brigade or group of battalionsII: battalion

None: cell, detachment, “large group” or other anomalous organization

2.22 Markers

Game Function MarkersThese are markers that record certain game conditions. They include:Battle = (lightning strike) marks where a Battle is taking place.Game Turn (calendar) = marks what turn it is.Game End (curtain) = placed on the Turn Record Track on the map to show when the game will end. Game events may shorten the game from the length specified in the scenario instructions.

2.3 Game Chits

2.31 Joint Operations Chits. Each turn, players make choices about what kind of operations they want to conduct, represented by a hand of Joint Operations Chits. These chits are not shuffled! Rather, each side begins with all of their Joint Ops Chits available from the start. (Note: exceptions may be noted by scenario, and certain game events may remove chits from those available to a player.)

2.32 Cascading Effects Events. These are rolled on the Cascading Effects Chart to generate random events and the backlash from Collateral Damage. A given player will roll two dice in succession, treating the first die rolled as the “tens” and the second as the “ones” (so a roll of 4 followed by 3 would correspond to 43). The player will look up the event from the range of outcomes listed on the Chart and implement the result. Some events are marked “one-time event”: after this event has occurred, subsequent rolls for this event are treated as “no event”.

For convenience, player can also use a deck of ordinary playing cards, if they happen to have one in the house. When an event is called, for, pick a random card from the deck and read down the “Card Pick” column on the Cascading Effects chart. When the deck runs out, reshuffle and pick again (leave out the cards corresponding to “one time events”).

3.0 Definitions

C2 : Stands for Command and Control, or a measure of how well the player can organize and use his units. Each player has a C2 Level independently of the other player throughout the game. The player with a higher C2 level may take his player turn first, and players with higher C2 levels may hold more Joint Operations Chits in their hand and make use of more Tactical Units in operations. C2 Levels may be raised or lowered by game events.

Controlled and Contested states: A player controls a Zone if he has at least one Tactical Unit in it (in either Mode available to it), and the enemy has no Tactical Units in it. A Zone that is not controlled per this definition is Contested.

Efficiency Ratings: Each Tactical Unit in the game has two Efficiency Ratings, showing its relative ability to conduct J-2 and J-3 operations respectively. Most Tactical Units have different Efficiency Ratings when they are in different modes. If a Tactical Unit has parentheses around its Efficiency Rating, that means it may not use that rating “offensively” (i.e. a rocket or missile unit may not assist in a Tactical Intelligence search, but uses the J-2 rating to Evade, nor may it attack by itself or participate in an Attack, except to fire in its own defence).

Mode : Regular units (IDF and Syrian Tactical Units, except for IDF SOF and Syrian Missile units) and TF HQs have two counters, to show their two Modes:

Concentrated: this shows the unit or units deployed for offensive combat or tactical movement. A unit must be in Concentrated mode in order to move to another Zone, and may choose only one enemy unit as a target in an attack.

Dispersed (denoted by the Efficiency Ratings printed in italics and underlined, and a white stripe): this shows the unit or units deployed in a dispersed pattern for seeking and taking on multiple smaller enemy targets. Units in Dispersed mode may not leave the Zone they

are currently in, but may select multiple enemy units in an attack.

Irregular units (IDF SOF, Non-Syrian Insurgent, and all rocket/missile Tactical Units) also have two modes:

Revealed: this is shown by having the counter side with the Efficiency Ratings printed on it showing. This represents the unit conducting active operations in the open – normally, Insurgent units need to be in or flip to this Mode to use Joint Operations Chits.

Underground: this is shown by having the blank side of the counter showing. This represents the unit doing its best to remain covert and undetected by enemy forces. A player may not examine an enemy unit in Underground Mode; he will try to reveal it through Tactical Intelligence operations.

OOB: This stands for Order of Battle and refers to the off-map player mats with their Holding boxes. In these Holding boxes, regular Tactical Units are assigned to Task Forces (and are placed in the appropriate Holding box) while the Task Force HQ unit itself, representing those Tactical Units, is placed on the map. Note, though, that regular Tactical Units may be detached and placed on the map without being in an OOB mat, but they conduct operations singly. Further note that the Insurgent OOB mat has only one Holding box, for the Syrian 1st Corps, and that only Syrian regular Tactical Units may be placed in this box. Each OOB Mat also has a Unit Chart that displays the values of Tactical Units at each step of their strength.

“Pick” and “Select”:When a player is told to “pick” a chit, he chooses it at random from chits he has available (his Available Pile). When he is told to “select” a chit, he examines the chits available and chooses one deliberately.

Reaction : Normally, you can only play Joint Ops chits in your own turn. However, there are occasions when you can play chits during the enemy player’s turn, in reaction to his activities (usually, this will be the Insurgent player launching an Ambush or attempting to Evade IDF forces). See 11.0.

Regular and irregular Units: All IDF and Syrian units are regular units, except for IDF SOF units and Syrian Missile units. All non-Syrian Insurgent units, IDF SOF units, and all rocket/missile units are irregular units. Regular and irregular units have different Modes, as described above.

Step Strengths: Each Tactical Unit is represented in the game by one or more counters to show its various modes and strength, as it changes its deployment and takes damage during the game. However, each Tactical Unit will be represented by one and only one counter on the map at any given time. Consult the Unit Chart on each side’s OOB Mat to see the values of each Tactical Unit in progressively weaker states as it undergoes “step reduction” in combat (see 10.5). Note that generally combat brigades and divisions have four steps of strength (and four counters each to show them, two for each mode), battalions and CSUs have two steps, and irregular units have only one (except IDF SOF units, which have four).

Task Force: Note that a Task Force, regardless of how many Tactical Units it contains (up to the C2 limit, see 7.5), is still considered only one unit. When activated (using a single Joint Ops chit) to move, attack, etc., all of the Tactical Units in that TF HQ participate as well (i.e., you do not have to spend a chit for each Tactical Unit in it to move or attack with that Task Force). Thus, Task Forces containing multiple Tactical Units are much more efficient to operate than individual detached Tactical Units. TF HQs have no intrinsic strength; they are composed of Tactical Units which provide that Task Force’s strength and durability.

Unit: this term refers to both detached Tactical Units and Task Forces (that contain Tactical Units themselves). Since many Operations Chits refer to conducting operations by “unit”, players will see that it is more efficient to group their regular units under Task Forces.

4.0 Setting Up the GameFollow these steps to set up the game:

Each player chooses which side (Insurgent or IDF) and scenario (Second or Third War) to play. If playing the Third Lebanon War scenario, the IDF player decides, in secret, whether he will follow a counterforce or countervalue strategy (see 18.1).

Each player then takes the units designated by the Scenario. Units are placed on the map as detached Tactical Units, on the OOB mat as part of Task Forces, or in their Sanctuary (as noted on the scenario instructions). The Insurgent places first, then the IDF. Place the Game End marker in the Turn Record Track on the map to show when the game will end (some Cascading Effects events may shorten the game from this length).

Each player then selects their initial hand of Joint Ops chits (choosing the ones they want). The size of the hand is given by the C2 Level for that player, which is generated by the scenario (and may be raised or lowered later in the game by various factors). Place the Joint Ops chits so they cannot be seen by the other player in your Available Pile. Again, these are NOT shuffled nor are they picked at random: you get to pick what you want. (For convenience, and to save shuffling through a pile of inverted chits, we suggest folding a piece of card or paper the long way into the shape of a letter W, which will make a double-rack rest for the chits, or scavenging a rack-like object from another game (e.g. Rack-O or Scrabble)).

The game is now ready to play. Begin play using the Sequence of Play 5.0. 5.0 Sequence of PlayEach game turn represents an indefinite period of time, from twelve hours to two or three days. Each game turn consists of the following Phases that must be conducted in order:

(1) C2 Determination Phase. Determine which player has the higher C2 level for the turn. That player becomes the First player for the turn. The other player is the Second Player. If both sides have the same C2 level, then the IDF player is the First Player.

(2) First Player Turn

1. Preparation Phase: First, all First Player Tactical Units that were revealed by J-2 Intelligence operations or by conducting operations in the previous game turn are either replaced in the appropriate box on the OOB Mat or flipped to Underground Mode.

2. Joint Operations Phase:The First Player plays his Joint Ops Chits in any order. See the rules sections describing each type of chit on what they can do. The Second player can play certain of his Joint Ops Chits in Reaction.

3. Planning Phase: The First Player discards his remaining Joint Ops Chits and selects a number of Joint Ops Chits from his Available Pile, up to the limit of his hand size allowed by his current C2 Level.

(3) Second Player TurnAs for the First Player Turn, but they switch roles.

(4) Cascading Effects PhaseOne player (doesn’t matter who) rolls once on the Cascading Effects Chart. Implement the instructions.

(5) End of TurnAdvance the Game Turn marker. If this is the last turn of the game, determine the winner. 5.2 Play continues thus until the end of the number of turns listed in the scenario, or one player throws in the towel.

Design Note! There are no separate movement, combat, etc., Phases as in many wargames. Rather, all such activity is generated solely by the play of Joint Ops Chits.

6.0 Joint Ops ChitsThey are named according to the U.S. military staff sections (slightly modified for the game):

J-1 Administration (assignment and organization of forces); J-2 Intelligence (about enemy strengths and intentions); J-3 Operations (tactical moves and combat); J-4 Logistics (strategic moves, combat support, construction, etc.). J-5 (Planning) and J-6 (Communications) chits are used only in the optional rules.

6.1 Command Control (C2) LevelEach player has a C2 Level which represents the maximum number of Joint Ops chits he may have in his hand at any one time. Note: the Optional J-5 chit and some Cascading Effects or game events will create a temporary exception. The current C2 Level also determines how many regular Tactical Units the player may have under command of a single TF HQ at one time, or how many irregular Tactical Units can be activated by one Joint Ops chit in one Zone to conduct activity.

6.2 Selecting Joint Ops ChitsEach Player selects his hand of Joint Ops Chits from those in his Available Pile during his Planning Phase at the end of his Player Turn. (They are also selected as part of initial deployment.) Chits remain in your hand until played or your ensuing Planning Phase, at which time you keep or discard any chits in your hand and then select back up to your current C2 Level.

6.3 Playing Joint Ops ChitsGenerally, Operations chits are played one at a time during a player’s Operations Phase in any order he desires. That chit’s action is performed, then the next chit is played, and so on. Sometimes (e.g. during a battle) chits may be played simultaneously, in order to enhance their effects. When a chit has been played, it is usually returned to the Available Pile.

Key Concept: Since you select Joint Ops Chits during your Planning Phase, the enemy has an entire turn to perform Actions with his chits, thereby possibly rendering your picks moot - reflecting very real staff planning issues at this level.

Another Key Concept, and a Design Note: Playing a Joint Ops Chit allows the player to have one regular unit (which can be a single detached Tactical Unit, or a TF HQ with a large number of Tactical Units attached to it), or a variable number of irregular units in a single Zone, perform actions. This rule is intended to show the advantages and disadvantages of, but mainly the differences between, a powerful yet centralized and hierarchical regular military force and a weaker yet decentralized and amorphous insurgency. What follows below is descriptions of how to use the chits, in their J-x order. These will generate the various actions players can take in the course of a scenario.

7.0 J-1 AdministrationBy playing ONE J-1 chit, you can do ONE of the following:

enter reinforcement units into the game (amount and location determined by scenario instructions);

recover Tactical Units (either restore units in the field to full strength or recover previously eliminated units from the Dead Pile in the Sanctuary);

reorganize and regroup regular units within a Zone, including changing their Mode.

7.1 ReinforcementsReinforcements are new units which have not yet entered play. Available Reinforcements will be listed in the scenario instructions. Play a J-1 chit in the Reinforcement Phase and they are received, in the quantities and at the locations directed (usually in a Sanctuary or in a Zone with a TF HQ). The Insurgent player may also enter new Dummy units at the same time as he enters reinforcements, see 15.5.

Note: sometimes, Cascading Effects events will cause new units to enter the game. In this case,

enter them as directed, without having to play a J-1 chit.

7.2 RecoveryPlaying ONE J-1 chit will allow the player to do ONE of the following:

Restore ONE Tactical Unit to full strength (replace the Tactical Unit with one representing it at full strength, without changing its mode);

Remove ONE (if the IDF player) or ALL (if the Insurgent player) Tactical Units and/or Task Force HQs from the Dead Pile, and place it/them in the Sanctuary (where it/they may later enter the map through Tactical Movement). The units appear at full strength, in either Mode desired.

7.3 Reorganize/Regroup Regular Tactical UnitsThe player may regroup and/or change the Mode of all friendly regular Tactical Units in one Zone, either as detached single units or into/out of/ among TF HQs (remember, irregular units may not be attached to TF HQs). Units attached to a TF HQ are placed in the matching holding box on the OOB Mat. All Tactical Units in a Task Force must be in or assume the same Mode. Tactical units detached from TF HQs are placed on the map singly – they may not stack with each other – in either Mode. Tactical Units that remain detached may also change Mode at this time.

7.31 Task Force Restrictions and Limits. A TF HQ with no Tactical Units attached to it may remain on the map (but it cannot do

anything without any subordinate units). TF HQs may not have other TF HQs attached to them. Irregular units may not be part of Task Forces.

A TF HQ can have in its box in the OOB Mat Tactical Units equal to or less than the player’s current C2 Level. If his C2 Level drops during play, the player must immediately detach sufficient Tactical Units of his choice to match the new C2 Level. It does not require J-1 chits to do this, and the detached units do not change Mode.

7.32 Changing Mode. when a regular unit changes Mode, so does its Efficiency Ratings. Be sure to substitute units at the same strength level when switching modes – consult the Unit Chart on your OOB Mat.

8.0 J-2 IntelligencePlayers must place their Task Force and detached Tactical Units visibly, on the map. The other player may not examine the content of units in your OOB Mat (which should be hidden from his view). The other player is allowed to know the quantity of chits in your hand, but he does not get to know exactly which chits they are.

By playing ONE J-2 chit, you can do ONE of the following: Tactical Intelligence (to discover enemy units) Evasion (enemy irregular units may attempt to hide) Operational Intelligence (to discover enemy capabilities)

8.1 Tactical IntelligenceTactical Intelligence represents the use of scouts, local informants, remote sensor arrays, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to locate and identify the enemy in preparation for direct action (note this is primarily of benefit to the IDF player, but the Insurgent player may want to discover the contents of IDF Task Forces to “mark” them for individual attacks, or to search out IDF SOF units when they are in Underground mode).

Procedure: play a J-2 chit in a Zone which contains at least one friendly Tactical Unit (it may be in either mode). Roll one die, modify the roll if required by the terrain in the Zone, and compare the result to the total combined J-2 Efficiency Ratings of all friendly Tactical Units in the Zone (see 8.13). If the modified roll is LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO this total, then the enemy player must reveal a number of Tactical Units equal to the adjusted die roll, of his choice. For irregular units, this means flipping Tactical Units from the Underground mode side (blank) to the Revealed side (symbol); for TF HQs, it means removing one Tactical Unit from the TF HQ’s holding box in the OOB Mat and temporarily placing it on top of the matching TF HQ counter on the map. Dummies are

removed.

8.11 IDF Aerial reconnaissance. Once during his player-turn, the IDF player may play a J-2 chit in any Zone on the map (including the Insurgent Sanctuary and Syria, if the latter has been activated) and declare that he is conducting Tactical Intelligence by aerial reconnaissance. He does not need to have an IDF unit in the Zone. His J-2 Efficiency Rating for this operation is equal to THREE, and the die roll is adjusted for the terrain in the Zone.

8.12 Evasion. Immediately after the friendly player has rolled the die and any units have been revealed, or if the friendly player has declared an Attack on the enemy player’s irregular units, the player may play a J-2 chit as a Reaction to attempt to have any irregular Revealed units (but not Dummies: they are gone) return to Underground mode (note this is primarily of benefit to the Insurgent player, but IDF SOF units may also Evade).

Procedure: the player plays a J-2 chit and rolls one die, modifying the roll if required by the terrain in the Zone, and compares it to the total combined J-2 Efficiency Ratings of all involved units (i.e. those newly Revealed, or the ones named as targets in an Attack). If the modified roll is LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO this total, then he may flip ALL the involved units back to their Underground mode side (blank).

8.13 Terrain. It is easier for Insurgent units to hide in areas with more people (many populated areas in Lebanon that are dominated by Hezbollah have local tunnel networks) and they would gain better information from the local population. The die roll is not modified in Remote Zones. In an Urban or Populated Zone:

Increase the die roll by TWO or ONE respectively when the IDF player is attempting to reveal enemy Tactical Units;

Reduce the die roll by TWO or ONE respectively when the Insurgent player is attempting Evasion, or to reveal enemy Tactical Units. The Insurgent treats any adjusted result of less than “1” as “1”.

8.2 Operational Intelligence CollectionOnce in his player turn, a player may declare that he is using a J-2 chit to collect operational intelligence. This represents use of reconnaissance aircraft, satellites, espionage, reading the New York Times, or other resources not normally available to a local commander.

Procedure: Play a J-2 chit, examine the enemy’s hand of Joint Operations chits and then return it.

9.0 J-3 Tactical Movement and Combat By playing ONE J-3 chit, you may do ONE of the following:

conduct Tactical Movement; conduct an attack (including springing an Ambush, 11.2) add Close Air Support in a battle or conduct a Deep Strike (IDF only, 12.1, 12.2) launch rocket/missile attacks or raids on Israeli infrastructure (Insurgent player only, 12.3,

12.4)

9.1 Tactical MovementOne regular unit in a Zone, or a number of irregular units up to the player’s current C2 level that are all in the same Zone, may be activated for Tactical Movement per J-3 chit. A unit may always leave a Zone. It may move any number of Zones but must stop on entering a Zone with enemy regular units, and is subject to Ambush (11.2) by enemy irregular units in each Zone it moves into.

9.11 Restrictions. To conduct Tactical Movement, regular units must be in Concentrated mode. Irregular units

must flip to Revealed mode and then move. A unit may enter a Zone occupied by enemy units, but must stop there if there are any

enemy regular units. Irregular enemy units may Ambush the moving unit by playing a J-3 chit. This will halt the unit’s movement and they will fight a battle (and after the battle, the Ambushed unit may continue moving by play of another J-3 chit).

Insurgent Militia units are locally recruited fighters and may not use Tactical Movement. Units may move out of a friendly Sanctuary Zone by Tactical Movement, but can only enter

a friendly Sanctuary Zone via Strategic Movement (or being eliminated in battle). Due to territorial forces not shown in the game, Insurgent Tactical Units or Task Forces may

not enter Israel.

9.12 Sequencing. You must complete the movement of one unit before commencing the movement of another. When multiple irregular units are conducting Tactical Movement out of a Zone, they are judged to be travelling singly – they do not all have to travel to the same destination and if ambushed, are ambushed individually.

9.2 AttackA player plays a J-3 chit and initiates a Battle between one friendly unit and as many eligible enemy units he wishes in the same Zone. This is called an Attack; the player who played the chit is called the Attacker and the other player is called the Defender, regardless of the overall strategic situation.

9.21 Restrictions. A regular unit in Concentrated mode may select only one enemy unit to attack. A regular unit in Dispersed mode may select more than one enemy unit, up to all enemy units in the Zone, to attack. An irregular unit must be in Revealed mode to be attacked, and must flip to Revealed mode to attack. An irregular unit may select only one unit to attack (this will be either a detached Tactical Unit (regular or irregular) or one belonging to a Task Force that has been temporarily revealed by a previous J-2 chit play – this represents local reconnaissance and preparation for an attack).9.22 Persistence. A unit can attack more than once (and can even attack the same, or different, enemy unit or units multiple times) per Friendly Player Turn, simply by playing additional J-3 chits.

10.0 Battles 10.1 Initiating a BattleWhen a J-3 chit is played to initiate an attack (as per 9.2), a Battle ensues. Each Battle is resolved individually and a Battle must be completed before the next attack can commence. Only the attacker must play a J-3 chit to initiate a battle. The defender does not have to play a J-3 chit to defend.

10.2 Conducting a BattleA Battle consists of the following Steps:

10.21. Attack Declaration and Evasion. The attacker plays one J-3 chit to initiate an attack in a Zone. The attacker declares the target unit or units. If the targeted defending units are irregular, they may at this point play a J-2 chit to Evade (see 8.12). If the defending units Evade successfully, the battle ends there and the attacker does not get his J-3 chit back!10.22 Commitment: Both players simultaneously commit any J-3 or J-4 chits they want to play in support of their units. 10.23 Placement: Place all engaged units and chits on the Battle Mat, to remind players of their effects.10.24 Tactical Advantage Determination. Determine which player has the Tactical Advantage (10.3). 10.25 Tactical Advantage Player units conduct First Fire: The player adds the J-3 ratings of all his firing units and finds the corresponding column on the Combat Results Table that contains this total number. He may shift the column to the right if he has played any J-3 (IDF only) or J-4 (either player) chits, one column per chit. He may also have to shift the column one or two columns to the left if the battle is taking place in a Populated or Urban Zone respectively (10.51). Finally, he may also shift the column any number of columns to the left voluntarily, in an effort to avoid Collateral Damage (13.0). He rolls one die, then cross-indexes the roll with the selected column to derive a result, expressed in step reductions. The Tactical Disadvantage player distributes reductions among his involved units as he sees fit. 10.26. Tactical Disadvantage Units conduct Return Fire: The involved units belonging to the Tactical Disadvantage player return fire, using the same procedure (but at their reduced Ratings if

they took any step reductions just now). The Tactical Advantage player distributes step reductions among his involved units.Important: There is only one Round of Fire exchanged per Battle (but see 9.22).10.27 Housekeeping: Discard chits. Return Tactical Units to each Task Force HQ box on the OOB mat, or the map. Remove the Battle marker.10.28 Cascading Effects: If any Cascading Effects events were generated by Collateral Damage (13.0), roll one Cascading Effects event on the Chart and implement the results.10.29 Consolidating the Battlefield: Determine the winner of the battle, if any (see below). That player may select one J-2 or J-3 chit and place it in his hand.

10.3 Tactical AdvantageHaving the Tactical Advantage means that your units in that Battle will have First Fire – you shoot first, and the enemy player will be fire back with his effectiveness reduced by step reductions. The defending player always has the Tactical Advantage except when the attacking units are springing an Ambush (11.2).

10.4 Support Chits in BattleIn addition to the J-3 chit the attacker must play, during Step 2 Commitment, both players may secretly choose J-3 (Close Air Support, for the IDF player) and J-4 (for either player, as combat support) to commit to that Battle. The IDF player may commit ANY number of available J-3 chits as Close Air Support, to assist his regular or irregular units. The effect of each J-3 chit used as Close Air Support is to shift the column on the Combat Results Table one to the right.Both players may commit up to ONE J-4 chit each in support of their units. This represents use of artillery, engineers, or other combat specialists. The effect of a J-4 chit is to add shift the column on the Combat Results Table one to the right. A player may commit a J-4 chit to support his regular units if a friendly CSU is present in the Zone. A player may always commit a J-4 chit to support his irregular units.

10.41 Ammunition Depletion. If the Insurgent player uses a J-4 chit in a Battle and rolls a “1” on the die, he has run out of ammunition for that resource and the chit is removed from the game (it is potentially available to re-enter play as a reinforcement, if scenario instructions allow).

10.5 Combat ResultsThe number derived from the Combat Results Table is the total number of step reductions inflicted on the player fired upon. The player may choose distribute the step reductions among his involved units as he sees fit. Replacing one Tactical Unit’s counter by the next weakest one (by flipping it over, or replacing it with another counter) satisfies one step reduction; do not change the unit’s mode while doing so.

A Tactical Unit that is at its weakest strength and has one further reduction applied against it is eliminated. It is immediately removed and a full strength unit of the same type is place in the Dead Pile in the Sanctuary Zone. (It may be recovered from the Dead Pile by play of J-1 chits later in the game, and will return at full strength). (exceptions: Insurgent Militia and Syrian units are removed when they are eliminated – Militia units are available to re-enter the game as reinforcements, Syrian units are gone forever).

If all involved regular Tactical Units in a Task Force were eliminated and there are still more hits to apply, then and only then the Task Force HQ may have one hit applied against it (and it is automatically eliminated, and the player’s C2 level is reduced by one).

If there are any excess step reductions left after all involved units have been eliminated, or if the battle took place in an Urban Zone and any step reductions (on either side) were applied, Collateral Damage has occurred; see 13.0.

10.51 Combat Results Reductions and Modifications. Certain circumstances allow for a reduction of ill effects suffered in a Battle.

The firing player may always roll on a lower (less effective) column than he is entitled to, in order to try and avoid inflicting Collateral Damage.

When the defending force is located in an Urban Zone, the player firing on him must shift the column on the Combat Results Table TWO to the left (does not apply if the defender

was Ambushed). When the defending force is located in a Populated Zone, the player firing on him must

shift the column on the Combat Results Table ONE to the left (does not apply if the defender was Ambushed).

10.6 Eliminated UnitsTactical Units and TF HQs eliminated in battle are immediately removed (they do not get to fire back). A given Tactical unit is placed in the Dead Pile at full strength until it is recovered by play of a J-1 chit (see 7.2; note that the IDF player may remove only one Tactical Unit or TF HQ by playing one chit, while the Insurgent player may remove ALL units that are currently in the Dead Pile). Recovered units are placed in the Sanctuary at full strength.

10.61 Eliminated TF HQs. The Task Force HQ unit is the last part of the Task Force that may have step reductions applied against it. It is automatically eliminated if one reduction is applied against it. The suffering player’s C2 level is reduced by 1 until the HQ unit is recovered from the Dead Pile. 10.62 Brittle Units. Insurgent Militia and all Syrian units are instead removed from the map if they are eliminated (Insurgent Militia counters are available to be used again as Reinforcements; Syrian units are removed from the game).

10.7 HousekeepingClear the Battle Mat by returning all surviving Tactical Units to their respective Task Force Holding box(es) on the OOB Mat or, if detached, to their respective Zones on the map. Discard all chits used to the Available Pile.

10.8 Consolidation of the battlefieldIf the Zone in which the Battle occurred is now empty of all enemy units, and the attacker still has at least one Tactical Unit present, he now controls the Zone. He may select one J-2 or J-3 chit and add it to his hand (note: this is an extra, gained because you have prisoners to interrogate, captured equipment, etc.).

11.0 J-3 Reaction Operations A Reaction Operation is one that that involves you playing a Joint Ops Chit during the enemy turn.

11.1 EvadeA player can play a J-2 chit in reaction to the other player conducting Tactical Intelligence (8.1), or declaring an Attack (10.11) so that any revealed irregular units may attempt to go back Underground. See 8.12.

11.2 AmbushA player can conduct an Ambush at the instant that an enemy unit moves into a Zone containing an irregular friendly unit in either Mode. One J-3 chit will allow one unit to Ambush the moving unit (If necessary flip the unit to Revealed mode). Conduct a Battle as in 10.1; the ambushing unit automatically has Tactical Advantage and the column on the Combat Results Table is not adjusted for terrain (10.51). Once the battle is over, the enemy unit may continue moving if the player plays another J-3 chit.

11.21 Close Quarter Battle. The IDF player may not play J-3 chits for Close Air Support when he is Ambushed (however, he may play them if he is springing the Ambush). The die roll is not adjusted for the terrain in the Zone (10.51). 12.0 J-3 Special Operations The IDF player may play J-3 Operations chits as Airstrikes, that represent airpower (jet aircraft, helicopter gunships, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) used to make air and Precision Guided Munitions (PGM, or “smart bomb”) attacks against enemy forces. The Insurgent player may use J-3 Operations chits to make rocket/missile attacks and small-scale raids on civilian and military infrastructure targets within Israel.

12.1 IDF Close Air SupportThe IDF player can play J-3 chits as Close Air Support in any battle (except when defending against an Ambush). Play these chits during Step 2 of the Battle Sequence. Any number of available J-3 chits can be committed, and each chit shifts the column used on the Combat Results Table one to the right.

12.2 IDF Deep StrikesThe IDF player may also use his J-3 chits as airstrikes launched independently of ground combat operations. i.e., they attack enemy units on their own. Play a J-3 chit in any Zone, and declare whether it is an Area Attack, Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) strike or Decapitation Strike. If the target units are irregular the Insurgent player can play a J-2 chit in Reaction to give the units a chance to Evade (see 8.12). In the latter case, if Evasion leaves the IDF player without any targets, the J-3 chit is still wasted.

12.21 Area Attack. This may be conducted against EITHER all regular enemy units (in either mode) OR all irregular enemy units in Revealed mode in one Zone.

Procedure: The IDF player rolls on the “5-8” column on the Combat Results Table if the target is enemy regular units in Concentrated Mode, and on the “2-4” column if the target is regular units in Dispersed Mode, or irregular units. The column is adjusted for the terrain in the Zone (see 10.51). The Insurgent player distributes step reductions among the target units as he wishes. If there are excess reductions, or if the strike was in an Urban Zone and there were any step reductions, then Collateral Damage has occurred: see 13.0.

12.22 PGM strike. This may be conducted against a single Insurgent Tactical Unit that is either a regular unit in either mode, or an irregular unit in Revealed Mode.

Procedure: Roll on the Combat Results Table as above, but there is no chance of Collateral Damage.

12.23 Decapitation Strike. This may be conducted against the Insurgent (Syrian) Task Force HQ.

Procedure: Treat this as a PGM strike on only the TF HQ. If the TF HQ takes a step reduction, it is eliminated – remove it, and all Tactical Units in its OOB Mat holding box are immediately placed on the map as single detached Tactical Units, in whatever Mode they were in at the time. Note the units in the OOB Mat are not otherwise affected by the strike. Don’t forget to reduce the Insurgent C2 level by one.

12.3 Insurgent Rocket/Missile attacks on infrastructureThe Insurgent player can play ONE J-3 chit to “fire” up to all rocket and/or missile units in ONE Zone at off-map targets in Israel.

Procedure: He plays the chit and declares that he is making an attack on either civilian (cities and towns) or military (bases, rear headquarters, supply depots and routes) infrastructure. The firing units are flipped to Revealed mode, if they were not so already, and the Insurgent player rolls ONE die for each rocket unit and TWO dice for each missile unit. Each time a “6” is rolled, one hit is scored. Each hit on civilian infrastructure gives one Victory Point to the Insurgent player, and automatically inflicts Collateral Damage (see 13.0). Each hit on military infrastructure inflicts one step reduction on one on-map IDF CSU unit (IDF player’s choice which one), no further effects.

12.31 Restrictions. A given rocket or missile unit may be “fired” only once per turn. Short-range rocket units (marked SR) may be fired only if they are in Zones south (i.e. on

the towards-Israel side) of the Litani River (up to and including Marjayoun). Medium-range rocket units (marked MR) may be fired if they are in any Zone on the map

except for either Sanctuary. Missile units (marked Msl) may be fired from anywhere, including either Sanctuary.

12.4 Insurgent Minor Raids on IsraelThe Insurgent player may play J-3 chits to represent raids by groups of Hezbollah or Syrian special forces, too small to be shown as discrete Tactical Units, slipping across the border into Israel to attack civilian or military targets.

Procedure: The Insurgent Player plays a J-3 chit and declares a raid on Israeli territory, and whether it is conducted against civilian or military targets. He rolls TWO dice and scores one hit for each “6” rolled. Each hit on civilian infrastructure gives one Victory Point to the Insurgent player, and automatically inflicts Collateral Damage (see 13.0). Each hit on military infrastructure inflicts one step reduction on one on-map IDF CSU unit (IDF player’s choice which one), no further effects.

12.41 Restrictions. The Insurgent player must control (not contest; see 3.0) a Zone in Lebanon adjacent to the border with Israel to launch raids. However, the Insurgent player units are not revealed because a raid was launched from their Zone.

13.0 Collateral DamageCollateral Damage occurs in the following situations:

A player suffers more step reductions to his involved units in a battle or Area Attack (12.21) than he can implement;

A battle or Area Attack (12.21) took place in an Urban Zone, and any side suffered at least one step reduction;

The Insurgent player scored a hit on civilian infrastructure via a rocket/missile attack or raid.

When Collateral Damage occurs, the player who caused it rolls on the Cascading Effects Chart and immediately implements the result. If both the attacker and defender inflict Collateral Damage, then the attacker rolls first, then the defender.

14.0 J-4 ChitsJ-4 chits may be used to increase the efficiency of your forces in combat, as well as allowing large-scale redeployments. Playing ONE J-4 chit will allow you to do ONE of the following:

conduct Strategic Movement; provide Combat Support to your forces in a battle; conduct Airmobile Movement (IDF only).

14.1 Strategic MovementPlay of one J-4 chit for this purpose allows one regular unit in a Zone, or a number of irregular units up to the player’s current C2 level that are all in the same Zone, to relocate from that Zone to their Sanctuary. The units may change Mode and the movement is not subject to Ambush. Insurgent Militia units may not use Strategic Movement.

14.2 Combat SupportEach side may commit a maximum of one J-4 chit to a Battle during Step 2 of the Battle Sequence, see 10.4. The effect is to shift the column used on the Combat Results Table one to the right. A CSU must be present in a Zone for a player to use a J-4 chit to support his regular units there. A player may always use a J-4 chit to support his irregular units.

14.3 Airmobile MovementBy playing a J-4 chit for Airmobile movement, the IDF player can move any one unit from any Zone on the map to any other Zone on the map. Only TF HQ, Light Infantry and SOF units may be so moved, and only IDF SOF units may be moved into the Insurgent Sanctuary or Syria. The unit may change mode and the movement is not subject to Ambush. However, if the IDF player moves SOF units into the Insurgent Sanctuary or Syria, one Cascading Effects event is rolled each time he does so.

15.0 Other Special UnitsSeveral units in the game have special effects or limitations; their peculiarities are summarized

here.

15.1 Insurgent MilitiaInsurgent Militia units are locally recruited villagers and part-time fighters. They may not perform Tactical or Strategic movement. They are removed from the game if they are eliminated, but the counters are available as Reinforcements by play of J-1 chits, or they may re-enter due to Cascading Effects events.

15.2 Combat Support Units (CSU)CSU are not front-line combat units. They may not initiate an attack by themselves (their J-3 Ratings are in parentheses to remind players of this), but may add their J-3 Ratings in a battle where they form part of the involved forces (whether the player commits a J-4 chit or not). If a CSU is present in a Zone, the owning player may play one J-4 chit for Combat Support (one chit per Battle, any number of Battles, and the CSU does not need to be part of the firing force). Besides taking step reductions in Battles, CSUs may also suffer reductions or elimination due to Insurgent rocket and missile attacks or raids on military infrastructure (see 11.3).

15.3 Special IDF Units These units are marked with an asterisk.15.31 IDF SOF units. These are irregular units: they may adopt Underground mode and Evade like Insurgent irregular units do. They may Ambush but may not be Ambushed. They are the only IDF ground units that may enter either Insurgent Sanctuary (however, the IDF player rolls on the Cascading Effects chart each time he does so).15.32 The 900 "Kfir" light infantry brigade. This unit is specially trained for urban operations. In Battles where this unit is part of the attacking force, the die roll on the Combat Results table is not modified for the terrain in the Zone (10.51).15.33 The 299 "Herev" light infantry battalion. Though small, it is composed of Druze (ethnic Lebanese) volunteers. It may not be Ambushed while operating as a single detached Tactical Unit.

15.4 The Wider War: Syria, Iran and HamasA major risk of a second Israeli invasion of Lebanon is that military forces from other countries in the region would become involved. In the game, units from other countries will enter through the occurrence of Cascading Effects events. If players wish, they may agree to have one or more of these forces already deployed at the start of the game, or not use them at all.

15.41 Syria. Syria may become involved each time a “Syrian Intervention” Cascading Effects event occurs. Each time such an event occurs, the Insurgent player makes a note of the total number of events and rolls one die. If the number rolled is equal to or less than the number of times the event has occurred, Syria will intervene. Intervention takes place in two phases:

Phase One - the “Syria” Zone is now activated as a second Insurgent Sanctuary Zone. The Insurgent player deploys the three Syrian Missile units (in Underground mode) in the Zone named “Syria”. These units may not leave this Zone but may henceforth launch missile attacks on Israeli civilian or military infrastructure. The IDF player may enter Syria with his IDF SOF units and/or conduct Deep Strikes against the missile units (but rolls on the Cascading Effects chart each time he does so). Keep rolling for intervention when further Syrian Intervention events occur.

Phase Two – If Phase One has already taken place, and the die roll indicates that Syria intervenes again, Syria enters the war with its ground forces. The entire Syrian First Corps (one TF HQ, two armor divisions, two mechanized infantry divisions, and one CSU) appears in Syria and the Insurgent C2 Level is raised by one. Syrian regular units may move into Zones in Lebanon via Tactical Movement, but may not enter Israeli territory. Ignore any further Syrian Intervention events.

The Insurgent player does not need to play J-1 chits to make the Syrian missile units or ground forces appear. He may use J-1 chits to restore Syrian regular units to full strength, but Syrian units may not be recovered from the Dead Pile. IDF regular units may not enter Syria (IDF SOF units and airstrikes may, but the IDF player rolls on the Cascading Effects chart each time he does so). 15.42 Iran. Iran may become involved through Cascading Effects events. Some events resupply

the Insurgent, in that he can return J-4 chits removed from play due to ammunition depletion, and one event introduces a unit of Iranian troops into the battle (the sole 1-4 Main Force unit, marked “IR”). When this latter event occurs, the unit appears in any Zone in Lebanon where there is an Insurgent unit. The Insurgent player does not have to play a J-1 chit to make it appear and it may appear in either mode. Unlike Syrian units, this unit may be recovered from the Dead Pile by play of J-1 chits.15.43 Hamas. Or more correctly, the “Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades” who form the military wing of this Palestinian Islamist fundamentalist socio-political organisation and are most active in Gaza. Hamas units are not directly represented in the game except by a particular Cascading Effects event. Their off-map uprising is assumed to be a one-time event, suppressed by other IDF forces not represented in the game.

15.5 DummiesDummies are removed automatically when discovered by IDF Tactical Intelligence operations or other events. However, any time the Insurgent player plays a J-1 chit to enter reinforcements into the game, he may also enter a number of previously removed dummy units equal to his current C2 Level (up to the limit of available counters, of course). The dummy counters enter at any Zone or Zones in Lebanon (in Underground mode, of course) and the Insurgent player may mix them around with his other units in the Zone to confuse the IDF player.

16.0 Planning PhaseDuring a Planning Phase, the conducting player discards any leftover Joint Ops Chits to the Available Pile and selects a new hand of Joint Ops Chits equal to his current C2 Level. He may select any chits of his choice from his Available Pile. Note that planning ahead is rewarded here. You are not only setting up your own next turn, you are also choosing chits to react to what you think your opponent will do in his next turn! 17.0 End of TurnOne player (doesn’t matter who) rolls on the Cascading Effects chart and implements the event’s effects immediately. Advance the Game Turn Marker by one box. If the end of the scenario was just completed, the game comes to an end and players determine who wins. 18.0 How to WinVictory is in term of Victory Points (VP). Players gain VP for certain conditions met during and at the end of the game. They may either use the points record track on the map or keep track of VP in secret during the game, on scrap paper.

18.1 IDF player Victory PointsAt the beginning of the game, the IDF player must decide whether he will follow a “Countervalue” or a “Counterforce” strategy. He decides this in secret and reveals his choice to the Insurgent player at the end of the game (though it might be obvious to the Insurgent player after a few turns).

If he selects “Countervalue”, he receives VP as follows: 1 VP per Collateral Damage event due to battles involving ground units or Deep Strikes 2 VP per Controlled Zone at game end (except Sanctuaries and Zones in Israel) 3 VP per Syrian or Iranian unit in the Dead Pile at game end

If he selects “Counterforce”, he receives VP as follows: 1VP per Hezbollah unit in the Dead Pile at game end (eliminated Militia do not count) 2 VP per Controlled Zone at game end (except Sanctuaries and Zones in Israel) 4 VP per Syrian or Iranian unit in the Dead Pile at game end

18.2 Insurgent player Victory PointsThe Insurgent player receives VP as follows:

1 VP per hit on Civilian Infrastructure by rocket/missile attacks or raids into Israel 1 VP per Controlled Zone at the end of the game (except Sanctuaries)

1 VP per IDF unit at less than full strength at the end of the game 5 VP per IDF unit in the Dead Pile at the end of the game

18.3 Scale of Victory If one player has more, but less than twice as many, VP than the other = Marginal Victory If one player has twice to three times as many VP than the other = Impressive Victory If one player has three times as many or more VP than the other = Smashing Victory

OPTIONAL RULES AND OTHER COMPLICATIONS

Opt 1.0 Additional ChitsAdd the following Joint Operations Chits to your Available Pile:J-5 PlanningJ-6 Signals/IT

O2.0 J-5 Planning You play a J-5 chit in one turn to give you additional Joint Operations chits in your next turn. Procedure: Place the J-5 chit face up in front of you. You may then select up to three Joint Operations Chits (of any type other than another J-5) and place them face down underneath the chit. The enemy may not examine them unless he does a successful J-2 Operational Intelligence mission. This process counts as only one chit played. Execution: On the turn following, you reveal the chits and then may play them. You must play them consecutively. This counts as one chit play.

Note: Effectively, you are trading one chit play this turn for three chit plays the next turn. Note also that your C2 Level does not change.

O2.1 Real-time PlanningAn additional J-5 mission option is Real-time Planning. By playing a J-5 chit, you can select any one Joint Ops chit from the Available Pile and place it in your hand (so the J-5 chit is like a “wild card”).

O3.0 J-6 CommunicationsJ-6 chits have the following uses: O3.1 Networked OperationsYou play a J-6 chit to multiply the effects of J-2 and J-3 chits.

Procedure: play a J-6 chit when you play a J-2 or J-3 chit. This allows that same J-2 or J-3 chit to be used by all friendly HQ units, or by a number of irregular units up to the player’s current C2 level, in one Zone. It must be for the same specific missions, in the same Zone, and all these missions must be executed consecutively.

Note: this can have a big effect on play!

O3.2 Information WarfareInformation Warfare Attacks are not performed on the map but are instead performed separately to degrade enemy Command and Control networks and capabilities in general.

Procedure: Roll a die for each J-6 chit played. For each "5" or “6” rolled, one enemy Joint Ops Chit, picked at random, is removed from the enemy’s Available Pile (up to as many as he has). Other die roll results have no effect and the enemy’s C2 level is not changed.

O3.3 Syrian Air Defences Assume that the Syrian Air Force and air defence networks are not decisively suppressed by IDF air activity. Each time the IDF player plays a J-3 chit as a Deep Strike in Syria or attacks Syrian units with airpower (either through Deep Strike or Close Air Support), the Insurgent player may roll one die. The IDF player’s J-3 chit is discarded on a 5 or 6.

O3.4 Dispersal of IDF SOF units.

In the game, the IDF SOF units have been grouped into separate discrete units for use as strategic assets (e.g. raids in rear areas or for area reconnaissance). It’s also likely that the IDF could choose to use their Special Forces troops as a tactical asset, that is in many small detachments for battlefield reconnaissance. At the beginning of the game, the IDF player may choose how he wants to use his Special Forces troops; he may not change his mind later. If he decides to use them as a tactical asset, remove all three SOF units from the game and treat each IDF TF HQ as if it had a J-2 rating of “2” (it still has no J-3 rating, though).

DESIGNER’S NOTES

This game was inspired by my reading of Policy Focus Paper #106, “If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizballah and its Allies”, written by Jeffrey White of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. It was published in September 2010 and can be found at http://www.scribd.com/doc/37913846/If-War-Comes-Israel-vs-Hizballah-and-Its-Allies. The paper included a notional order of battle for an IDF ground and air assault into Lebanon in the near future, in an effort to stamp out Hezbollah once and for all, and I thought that this situation might lend itself well to a game system that emphasizes the limitations and advantages of centralized and decentralized command and control systems – that is, an adaptation of the “staff chit system” first used by Joe Miranda in his game Bulge 20.

One assumption of the game is that the war will be of fairly short duration, perhaps three weeks or less before material and personnel exhaustion (or perhaps an imposed ceasefire) shut down high-tempo operations. Another crucial assumption is that the IDF will restrict its ground operations to the southern half of Lebanon, and that it will frame the conflict in terms of engaging Hezbollah only, and not the state of Lebanon itself. The higher C2 Level for the IDF reflects both the relative sophistication of their command and control systems and their need to expend more chits to carry out large-scale operations through operational headquarters. The Insurgent player has a lower C2 level but benefits from a decentralized command system – it is almost certain that once the action starts, the IDF would do its best to jam and disrupt Hezbollah’s radio and telephone communication systems, making highly coordinated resistance or counterstrokes difficult if not impossible. Hezbollah knows this and has turned much of southern Lebanon into a network of fortified localities, each ready to defend itself when the day comes. Also, each side has a slightly different mix of Joint Operations Chits to use.

The tactics either side is likely to use inform the game’s victory conditions. Hezbollah cannot destroy the IDF or the state of Israel, but it will most likely attempt to maintain a bombardment of Israeli territory with its large stockpiles of rockets and missiles, and do its best to cause maximum casualties to IDF formations, while cementing its role as “defender of Southern Lebanon”. Jeffrey White suggests (p. 10) that the IDF might use its “Dahiya Doctrine”, where Israel would use its heavy air and ground firepower against civilian infrastructure that facilitates Hezbollah military operations – roads, bridges, fortified villages, industrial and economic targets as a form of collective punishment. In the game, the IDF player is given a choice of following this doctrine through the “countervalue” option: he will gain Victory Points for smashing up and terrorizing southern Lebanon through Collateral Damage results, but because the Collateral Damage events generally favour the Insurgent, he will be making his military task harder with each event (as well as increasing the likelihood of Syrian intervention). The “counterforce” option proposes that the IDF will do its best to destroy Hezbollah’s military capability (and Syria’s should it become involved). In either case he benefits if he is left controlling parts of southern Lebanon at the end of the game.

If such a war were to happen it would involve regional upheaval, massive civilian casualties, and horrific destruction that would take many years to rebuild, if ever. Let us hope that this game never becomes a model of reality. But, Jeffrey White suggests that in the end such a war would accomplish Israeli, and American, strategic goals. He says:

“If war comes, Washington should not necessarily take immediate steps toward ending it quickly. That is the natural reaction to conflict, based on the belief that war is so terrible that it needs to be stopped above all. And yet changes must occur: Hizballah’s military

capabilities need to be broken and its political power reduced; Syria needs to be disabused of the notion that it can play violent games in Lebanon as a means of furthering its own cynical interests without incurring any significant cost; and Iran needs to see its Hizballah proxy militarily defeated and politically humbled. Only successful IDF operations can achieve those goals, and that may take some time. Accordingly, the United States should consider giving the IDF that time—no easy task.” (p.41)

It is for this very reason that the capabilities and assumptions each side may have made about the other should be tested out, in the cardboard laboratory of a wargame.

One further note: this game was originally designed in fall/winter 2010, just a few months before the “Arab Spring” and the associated unrest in Syria. The assumption during development of this game in 2012 was that the al-Assad regime was able to repress the opposition inside its borders and therefore be able to contemplate significant military intervention to support its proxy in Lebanon. Time may disprove this assumption and if players agree to it, Syrian and/or Iranian involvement in the conflict may be left out.

Third Lebanon War (201?) Scenario Instructions and setupGame length = 20 turns.

IDF At Start Available Reinforcements NotesTask Force HQ

6 1 (enter one on play of a J-1 chit) At start: Set up anywhere in Israel.Reinforcement: Enter in Sanctuary.

Tactical Units

Armor brigade x 7Mechanized Infantry brigade x 6Light Infantry brigade x 3Light infantry battalion x 1SOF x 3CSU x 4

Mechanized Infantry brigade x 1Light Infantry brigade x 2CSU x 1(enter one unit per J-1 chit played)

At start: anywhere in Israel. May start grouped under TF HQs, in either mode.Reinforcements: arrive at any Zone with a TF HQ or in Sanctuary.

C2 Level = 7

Insurgent At Start Available Reinforcements NotesTactical Units

Militia x 12Guerrilla x 12Main Force x 4Short Range Rocket units x 5Medium Range Rocket units x 3Missile units x2Dummy x 8

Militia: may be built during play from eliminated counters. Enter two per J-1 chit played.J-4 chits removed due to ammunition depletion: Enter one per J-1 chit played (i.e. add to Available Pile).Dummies: equal to current C2 Level (add to any other reinforcement above when J-1 chit played)

At Start: anywhere in Lebanon; at least two units in each Zone south of the Litani River (including Marjayoun).Reinforcements: enter at any Zone with an Insurgent unit in it, or in a Sanctuary Zone.

C2 Level = 5

Second Lebanon War (2006) Scenario Instructions and SetupGame length = 12 turns

IDF At Start Available Reinforcements NotesTask Force HQ

1 2 (enter all when Israeli Escalation is triggered)

At start: Set up anywhere in Israel.Reinforcement: Enter in Sanctuary.

Tactical Units

Armor brigade x 3Mechanized Infantry brigade x 2Light Infantry brigade x 1Light infantry battalion x 1SOF x 2CSU x 2

Armor brigade x 4Mechanized Infantry brigade x 3Light Infantry brigade x 1SOF x 1CSU x 2(enter all when Israeli Escalation is triggered)

At start: anywhere in Israel. May start grouped under TF HQs, in either mode.Reinforcements: enter in Sanctuary. May start grouped under TF HQs, in either mode.

C2 Level = 6

Insurgent At Start Available Reinforcements NotesTactical Units

Militia x 8Guerrilla x 8 (choose at random)Main Force x 2Short Range Rocket units x 3Medium Range Rocket units x 2Dummy x 8

Militia: may be built during play from eliminated counters. Enter two per J-1 chit played.J-4 chits removed due to ammunition depletion: re-enter (i.e. add to Available Pile) only if “Iranian Resupply” or “Russian Arms Deal” events occurDummies: equal to current C2 Level (add to any other reinforcement above when J-1 chit played)

At Start: all units south of the Litani River, at least two units in each Zone (including Marjayoun).Reinforcements: enter at any Zone with an Insurgent unit in it, or in a Sanctuary Zone.

C2 Level = 5

Second Lebanon War Scenario Rules Changes, Exceptions and Modifications.

2.1 Geographical Limitations. Israeli regular units may not cross the Litani River (they may enter Marjayoun). The IDF player may enter and conduct operations with his SOF units (only), and may conduct Deep Strikes against enemy units, anywhere in Lebanon. No units from either side may ever enter Syria.

10.41 Support Fire. if the Insurgent player uses a J-4 chit in a Battle, he shifts the column on the Combat Results Table two columns to the right, not one. However, if he rolls a “1” (one) on the die, he has run out of ammunition and the J-4 chit is removed permanently, unless the “Iranian Resupply” or “Russian Arms Deal” events occur later in the game.

15.32 Special IDF Units. The 900 “Kfir” light infantry brigade does not have its special capability in the 2006 scenario (this was one of the lessons learned during the war)

15.4 The Wider War Syria and Iran will not intervene with their forces during the scenario. Remove the Syrian

units and the Iranian Main Force unit, and ignore the “Iranian Intervention” event. Israeli Escalation (Operation “Changing Direction”): Read ”Syrian Intervention” cascading

effect events as “Israeli Escalation” chits instead. Each time such an event occurs the IDF player notes the total number of such events and rolls one die. If the number rolled is equal to or less than the number of events, Israel will escalate its military commitment and all “available reinforcements” listed in the table above immediately enter the game (the IDF player does not have to play J-1 chits to make them appear). Ignore any further Israeli Escalation events.

18.0 Victory Points The IDF player is awarded VP only under the “Counterforce” schedule – he may not choose

“Countervalue”. Both players score VP for controlling Zones south of the Litani River only (including

Marjayoun).

Changes to Cascading Effects events. Ignore the “Iranian Intervention” event. “Syrian Intervention” events are now read as “Israeli Escalation”. “Iranian Resupply” only takes effect if the Insurgent player throws 1-3 on one die after

playing the chit (the Israeli Navy is blockading Lebanese ports, but in several cases were driven away temporarily by anti-shipping missiles).

Commentary on the Second Lebanon War Scenario This is a shorter scenario with fewer forces involved overall. It covers roughly the period

from 23 July 2006, when substantial numbers of IDF ground troops began to cross the border, to 14 August when the ceasefire came into effect.

The IDF had not engaged in significant large-scale ground operations since the 1982 incursion, and the 2006 campaign exposed many deficiencies in its structures and processes, from mobilization to intelligence and maneuver capability. This is reflected in the lowered IDF C2 level and smaller number of Task Force HQ units, and the uncertainty of when or even if the Israeli government will decide to send larger forces into Lebanon.

The IDF was not prepared for the quality and quantity of anti-tank weapons used by Hezbollah, nor for the tactics they used to employ them. Hence the extra effect when the Insurgent player uses J-4 chits.

In 2006 Hezbollah had fewer fighters and a smaller number of rocket units, most of them short-range 122mm “Grad” rocket launchers. Some losses from the Israeli Air Force’s air campaign to locate and destroy rocket sites and launchers that began on 13 July have been factored into the opening setup. The number of Dummy units is just as great, though, to reflect the poor state of IDF intelligence on Hezbollah’s deployment throughout Lebanon.

The optional J-5 and J-6 chits and rules should not be used.