US ATLASHL-LHC Upgrade BASIS of ESTIMATE (BoE)

Date of Est: 7/10/2019Prepared by: Tom SchwarzResponsible Inst: University of MichiganDocdb #: HL-LHC-docDB-35

WBS number: 6.6.4 WBS Title: CSM

WBS Dictionary Definition: This WBS covers the fabrication of muon chamber service modules (CSM), which broadcasts timing and control signals to the mezzanine card, and collects data from the mezzanine for readout. This includes the design, layout and construction of the printed circuit board (PCB), any firmware development, procurement of commercial components, board assembly, and testing. It includes the cost of prototypes, testing, pre-production, and production. 1,076 boards are needed for the detector.Estimate Type (check all that apply – see BOE Report for estimate type by activity):

___ Existing Purchase Order or Work Complete_X_ Engineering Build-up_X_ Extrapolating from Actuals_X_ Analogy___ Expert Opinion

Supporting Documents (including but not limited to): Attachments 1-6

Details of the Base Estimate (Explanation of the Work)

R&D Phase (Task Groups 01 – 07) The R&D phase during CY2017-19 consists of several design iterations based on feedback from tests of prototype boards. ATLAS requires radiation certification of the components according to a strict rubric (single-batch component purchases lessen the certification burden); this requires design and construction of radiation certification boards followed by exposure to ionizing radiation and hadron beams, and finally assessment of performance.

MREFC Construction Phase (Task Groups 08 – 09) Production tasks include procurement, monitoring of outsourced assembly, QA/QC of fabricated boards and shipping to CERN where a final look-over test is performed. Preproduction of 162 boards is needed prior to the Production Readiness Review (PRR). These boards will be used as spares since experience with current detector has shown that approximately 15% of on-detector parts are needed for replacement of non-functioning units.

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6.6.4 Production SummaryNumber needed on detector 1076Pre-production and spares 162Yield factor 0.95Total number produced 1303

Cost EstimateSum of Value

Lbr Hours

MAT Direct

Trav Direct

MREFC 8,001 1,569,184 5,1406.06.04.01 CSM Michigan 6,064 1,569,184 5,140

08 Pre-production 1,811 231,188ENG 1,203EQUIP 228,763MAT 2,425STU 608

09 Production 4,253 1,337,996 5,140ENG 2,954EQUIP 1,329,152MAT 8,844STU 1,299TRAVF 5,140

6.06.04.90 L3 Project Management 1,937

Grand Total 8,001 1,569,184 5,140

Cost Estimate Description

Production M&S CostsPre-production and production costs are outlined in detail in attachment 1 for each associated material task below. In general, component costs dominate PCB manufacture and assembly on the order of 2-1. Associated quotes for the costs outline in attachment 1 are shown in attachments 2 and 3. All costs are based on recent quotes (2019) for components and board production and assembly. There is a price reduction in the PCB board production and assembly due to the larger quantity purchased. Shipping costs are listed in attachment 4. Estimation types are dominated by an extrapolation from actuals (81%) and analogy (19%) – as in pie chart below.

Labor CostsThe CSM will be a layered PCB, with a large number of ball-grid array mounted integrated circuits, most notably GBTx asic chips developed by CERN, that handle the core functionality of the board. The peripheral chips to make the board functional include: power chips with proper power-on sequence, repeaters, clock scheme, configuration chips (GBT-SCA), and opto-electronics. This board is very similar to the Phase I sTGC trigger signal router board under development at Michigan, and therefore, FTEs are based on this experience. For the new CSM, a full-time senior engineer is required for overall system design, PCB schematic and layout, firmware programming, monitoring construction and testing. Students will assist in prototype testing, radiation tests, and production QA/QC. One radiation test will be led by a project scientist at U-M with extensive experience in irradiation tests and data analysis. This division of labor is equivalent to the labor/schedule used to develop the Phase I NSW sTGC signal packet router developed at U-M. The Phase I router is in the final stages of the project, will finish ahead of schedule and within the allocated budget.

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Scientific LaborIn addition to the project labor, the project will require 20% of the faculty PI to oversee the project. Additionally, a graduate student or postdoc will likely assist during module 0 testing and a verification test after shipping at CERN.

Travel CostsOne domestic trip is required for the EE or a U-M Scientist for radiation testing of prototype boards. This test will be carried out at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). We estimate domestic costs, based on recent trips to LANSCE: $600 (flight) + $200/day (hotel, car, per diem) for a 7 day trip = $2000. These costs do not include overhead.

Two trips to CERN are required for the EE and a graduate student or postdoc for a vertical slice system test (module 0) and to perform verification tests of the boards after shipping. CERN trips are estimated based on recent trips to CERN: $1700 (flight) +$60/day (hostel) +$50/day (per diem) +$100 (taxi, etc.) = $2570. These costs do not include overhead. The flight estimate is taken by averaging the last 10 flights to CERN from U-M (See attachment 5).

Assumptions: Radiation levels are understood and that chosen components are suitable for the environment. Required components are available and delivered on time.

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Schedule:ATLAS management has schedule installation of electronics that must be installed on-chamber inside the cavern in early 2024. Roughly 20 months are required to produce and properly test all required boards. With the additional requirement of at least one year of float in our schedule, these requirements motivate the following schedule.

Dates Development Phase Description

Mar 2017 - June 2018Task Groups 01, 02Technology Evaluation and Decision

An evaluation of two potential technologies for the CSM: GBTx-based and FPGA-based devices.

June 2018 - Mar 2019 Task Group 03Prototype v1

First prototype – most functionality implemented, and most components are considered final.

Mar 2019 - Oct 2019 Task Group 04Prototype v2

Second Prototype – all functionality implemented, and all components considered final.

Oct 2019 - Dec 2019 Task Group 05Radiation Test

Radiation test – SEU Testing. TMR functions evaluated and refined.

Dec 2020 - May 2020 Task Group 06Module 0 Test

Module 0 test at CERN with MDT full front end components - mezzanine (ASD/TDC) and CSM.

Apr 2020 - Dec 2020 Task Group 07Pre-production

Pre-production of boards using final design. Testing production yield and any potential low probability flaws.

Dec 2020 - June 2022 Task Group 08Production Full production of all boards.

Risk Analysis: See Risk Register

Comments:

Attachments:See below.

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Attachment 1: Production and Pre-production M&S Costs

Item Number Price SourceComponent cost per board $744 See Component Cost TabPCB Bare board manufacturing cost per board $310 Quote PCBFABEXPRESS

Assembly cost per board $118 Quote PCBFABEXPRESS

Pre-Production (Parts) 162 $120,580 Pre-Production (Assembly) 162 $69,271 Total $189,851 Production (Parts) 1141 $849,269 Production (Assembly) 1141 $487,892 Total $1,337,161

Activity ID Activity Name Base Cost Planned CostCSM2570M40 PMT: Closeout PCB Manufacture and Assembly $120,580 $120,580CSM2571M40 Materal for Closeout PCB Manufacture and Assembly $69,271 $71,347 CSM2660M40 PMT: Closeout for PCB Manufacture and Assembly (All Boards) $849,269 $849,269CSM2661M40 PMT: Closeout for PCB Manufacture and Assembly (All Boards) $487,892 $517,601

Attachment 2: Quotes for Components

Quotes from Digikey, Mouser and CERN, February 2019

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Attachment 3: Quote from PCBFABEXPRESS

Attachment 4: Quote for Shipping

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Attachment 5: Travel Costs

Date Flight Cost to CERN6/12/17 1626.926/24/17 2333.866/11/17 1906.3610/15/16 1545.162/20/17 1382.864/24/17 2083.266/5/17 1762.966/13/17 1759.462/26/17 1313.062/3/17 1311.86

AVERAGE $1702.58

Attachment 6: Quote for Repairs

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