EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT TO CAMPUS PROGRAMME

Mariela Baeva

Former Member of the European Parliament,

Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee

Public opinion in the post-Brexit era

Do the British public agree with the view that competition, entrepreneurship and free trade are key drivers for creating the pathways from poverty to prosperity, especially in the post-Brexit era?

The issue was the subject of a piece of research, released this October, by Populus (research consultancy) and the Legatum Institute*.

The purpose of the research is to show where the UK is today (in terms of public opinion), not where it wished it were.

It sheds light on the underlying public attitudes towards the economy in the post-Brexit era. It explores public attitudes towards: *Political ‘isms’, including capitalism, conservatism, liberalism and socialism *Public vs private ownership *Free markets vs state regulation *Businesses and profit *Social issues and crime

I’ll introduce excerpts only from the results of the research related to the identified five segments of the UK population with respect to the five issues above. Clearly divided on social and economic issues, each group has a distinct collection of beliefs in economic and social terms.

The five segments are as follows (pls see page 34, fig. 4.1a, in the following link: https://lif.blob.core.windows.net/lif/docs/default-source/default-library/1710-public-opinion-in-the-post-brexit-era-final.pdf):

■ Left behind ■ Cosmopolitan critics ■ Disengaged pessimists ■ Optimistic centrists

■ Right of centre traditionalists

Brief characteristics of the five segments:

Left behind: Economically left-wing and pro-nationalisation, this segment voted heavily to Leave the EU (60%). Their group

consists of semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers or those who are unemployed.

Cosmopolitan critics: Anti-capitalist, anti-free enterprise and anti-conservative, but unlike ‘Left behind’, they are extremely

socially liberal and pro-Remain (64%). Cosmopolitan critics are the only segment to believe that immigration has improved the

country. The grouping represents supervisory or junior managerial, administrative or professional workers.

Disengaged pessimists: Eurosceptic (with a Leave vote of 56%) and dismissive of political ideologies. The segment with the highest support for more jail time for criminals, increased military spending and for countries to ‘protect their own interests’. Some demographics: *Tend to be female (57%) *More between 45 and 64 years of age *Most white segment (96%) *Highest number of housewives and lower than average income overall

Optimistic centrists: They tend towards the centre-right on economic issues. They are broadly free-market oriented. Of all the segments they are the most sceptical of nationalisation. Even so, they would still nationalise railways, water, electricity, gas anddefence. On social issues, they are more liberal than most of the UK, and are more likely to have voted Remain (51%). Somedemographics: *Slightly more male (55%) *More between 18 and 34 years of age *Largest number of those in the higher and intermediate managerial professionals *Highest number of home-owners and largest income of any segment

Right of centre traditionalists: Ideologically free market and patriotic, this segment is the only segment that favours lower taxes and a smaller state in terms of state intervention into the economy. Most believe that immigration has damaged the world and even 36% believe that female equality has been more damaging than beneficial. They voted to Leave the EU (57%). Some demographics: *More between 25 and 34 years of age *More skilled manual workers *Mostly full-time workers and more affluent than average

General conclusions: The five segments reveal that free markets find strong support among Right of centre traditionalists and some support among Optimistic centrists.

The public tend to reject free market ideas in favour of state regulation.

The public believe that big business has been given too much freedom for too long and that the economy needs to be reoriented away from a focus on profit.

In the wake of the EU referendum debate in the UK, much focus was given to the social attitudes of voters. Now, the political class will need to turn its attention to economic attitudes.

And for those who believe that competition, entrepreneurship and free trade are key drivers to make societies more prosperous, it’s time to up the game** and try harder to improve. Or to face the risk of the ground shifting beneath their feet…

*The word ‘legatum’ means ‘legacy’. At the Legatum Institute, the researchers are focused on tackling the major challenges of our generation—

and seizing the major opportunities—to ensure the legacy we pass on to the next generation is one of increasing prosperity and human flourishing.

**to make an effort to improve the way in which you do something

03.12.-10.12.2017