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Transcript of Web Technologies and System Dynamics for Community Sustainability Gordon Keating, Donatella...
Web Technologies and System Dynamics for
Community Sustainability
Gordon Keating, Donatella Pasqualini, & Gary Geernaert
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Larry BarnettEpiphanet, Inc.
February 6, 2009 Applied Solutions Workshop, Rohnert Park, CA
Funding: SCWA and IGPP
The Challenge
• Develop a web portal that will – build community among sustainability-minded
communities in the U.S.– interest, inform, enlist, and retain input from
Sonoma regional citizens
• Map out a course towards energy sustainability and resilience, carbon neutrality, and economic vitality, given projections of future climate change
• Define solutions to serve as an example for the state of California, the U.S., and international organizations
In order to meet the goals of carbon footprint reduction outlined in AB32 and Sonoma County’s GHG reduction targets…
“Change in energy use and GHG emissions must begin with local efforts.”
• Develop an understanding of the interrelationships among important natural, built, and social systems, and ways to enhance their collective resilience,
• Engage public and build community through social networking features
• Collect and analyze public ideas to inform decision making
Approach
Stakeholders: Sonoma County public, Business community, Environmental community, Municipal and County governments, External counties and regions
Example: Drupal
• Information
• Interactivity
• News feeds
• Presence & Social networking
• Content awareness
• Surveys
• Interactive models
• Data animation
• Consensus building
……
Content Management System (CMS)
Gathering User Input – Survey
Mindmap (undirected graph)
Example from a study of potential new directions for a scientific organization:“What are core capabilities of the organization that have been important in your work?”
Gathering User Input - Blogs
Tag Cloud
(http:\\tagcrowd.com)
Tagclouds are useful for providing a gestalt of blogs, discussions, comments, tags
User comments, blogs, and survey responses can be analyzed and visualized in a variety of ways
User Input Analysis
Mindmap (undirected graph)
Statistics
Interactive Graphs
http://www.creativesynthesis.net/recycling/graphgeardemo/
Tag Cloud
http://www.scwa.ca.gov/water_conservation/
http://tagcrowd.com/
Goal: provide actionable understanding of changing attitudes and priorities of site users (citizens)
Expect complex interrelationshipsamong component systems
• Policy selection• Scenario comparison• Nonlinear feedbacks
System Dynamics ModelInvestigate non-intuitive interrelationships among important systems that affect energy-water sustainability and resilience
The model is designed to track the CO2 flow across sectors
Total CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions from
transportation
CO2 emissions from
electricity generation
In this first version of the model, we considered two CO2 emissions sources
Renewable Policy: wind
Renewable Policy: PV
Renewable Policy: wind
Public Transp Policy
Hybrid-cars Policy
Mental model
residential transportation
industry/commercial
transportationresidential electricity
industry/commercialelectricity
electricity for water treatment
water demand
Demand
population Economics
climate change
population
climate change
population
Exogenous drivers