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![Page 1: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Mediated and networked politics
Social media and the Internet asmediators between politicians and voters
Presentation held at the EPP campaign managers meeting 20-21 October 2011
Dr. Maurice VergeerDepartment of communication
![Page 2: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Problems
•Low and declining voter turnout
•Little trust in politicians and politics
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Solutions?
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ONLINE CAMPAIGNING
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History of campaigning
![Page 7: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Pre-modern campaigns
Tools Print media, rallies,
meetings, foot soldiers
Mode / style Labor-intensive,
interpersonal, amateur
Orientation to
voter
Mobilizing, voters = loyal
partisans
Internal power
distribution
Local-centric
![Page 8: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Pre-modern campaigns Modern campaigns
Tools Print media, rallies,
meetings, foot soldiers
Broadcast television news,
news advertisements, polls
Mode / style Labor-intensive,
interpersonal, amateur
Capital-intensive,
mediated, indirect
Orientation to
voter
Mobilizing, voters = loyal
partisans
Converting and mobilizing,
voters = loyal partisans and
floating
Internal power
distribution
Local-centric National-centric
![Page 9: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Pre-modern campaigns Modern campaigns Professional
campaigns
Tools Print media, rallies,
meetings, foot soldiers
Broadcast television news,
news advertisements, polls
Internet, direct mail
Mode / style Labor-intensive,
interpersonal, amateur
Capital-intensive,
mediated, indirect
Capital-intensive,
marketed, targeted,
continuous
Orientation to
voter
Mobilizing, voters = loyal
partisans
Converting and mobilizing,
voters = loyal partisans and
floating
Interactive, voters =
consumers
Internal power
distribution
Local-centric National-centric Local-/national centric,
bifurcation
![Page 10: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Party sites compared across countries
Pippa Norris (2001)
Web feature analysis
•Information function•Communication function
Developmental explanations• Technological development• Human development• Political development
![Page 11: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
• Kluver, Foot, Schneider & Jankowski (2007)• Web sphere analysis
- Political parties - Labour unions- NGOs
• European focus• Party sites were best equipped
![Page 12: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
• Advanced and extended replication of web feature analysis
![Page 13: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Candidate websites European Parliament elections 2009Sample: 17 countries
• Austria• Belgium• Cyprus• Czech Republic• Estonia• France• Germany• Greece
• Hungary• Ireland• The Netherlands• Poland• Portugal• Romania• Slovakia• Sweden• United Kingdom
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Methodology
• All party and campaign websites • Random sampling of candidates with websites, but . . .• Always including the top three candidates per party
• 288 party and campaign websites• 738 candidate websites• All websites were archived digitally
• Elaborate coding scheme• Coding by local experts• Advanced analyses
- factor analysis, hierarchical linear models
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Four distinct dimensions of website features
• Informing
• Personal Reputation
• Connecting & Sharing
• Audio-visualisations
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Informing Personal reputation Connecting & Sharing Audio-visualizations
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ALDE EPP GUE / NGL S&D GREENS / EFA ECR EFD
Information Personal Reputation Connecting & Sharing Audio-visualizations
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Macrolevel explanation?
Political systems variables
•Fractionalization
•Proportionalism
•Voting system
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Personalisation
• Personalisation- Politician representing the party
• Personalisation- Politician as a person
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0%
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50%
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THREE DIMENSIONS OF PERSONALIZATION ON CANDIDATE WEBSITES
•Professional
•Home and Family
•Personal preferences
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0,0
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professional home and family personal preferences
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ECR EPP S&D ALDE GREENS / EFA EFD GUE / NGL
Personal preferences Personal favorites Home & Family
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NEW ERA OF CAMPAIGNING?
![Page 25: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Two new and related developments
• Online political networking
• Personalisation
![Page 26: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Political capital online
• Social networking sites
• Microblogging
![Page 27: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Social networking sites
• Facebook• Twitter • Bebo • Hyves• Youtube• Flickr• Picassa• And many many more
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Premodern campaigns Modern campaigns Professional
campaigns
Tools Print media, rallies,
meetings, foot soldiers
Broadcast television news,
news advertisements, polls
Internet, direct mail
Mode / style Labor-intensive,
interpersonal, amateur
Capital-intensive,
mediated, indirect
Capital-intensive,
marketed, targeted,
continuous
Orientation to
voter
Mobilizing, voters = loyal
partisans
Converting and mobilizing,
voters = loyal partisans and
floating
Interactive, voters =
consumers
Internal power
distribution
Local-centric National-centric Local-/national centric,
bifurcation
![Page 29: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Pre-modern campaigns Modern campaigns Professional
campaigns
Personal campaigns
Tools Print media, rallies,
meetings, foot soldiers
Broadcast television news,
news advertisements, polls
Internet, direct mail Weblogs, micro-blogs,
social networking sites
Mode / style Labor-intensive,
interpersonal, amateur
Capital-intensive,
mediated, indirect
Capital-intensive,
marketed, targeted,
continuous
Low-cost, computer-
mediated, networked,
personalized, amateur
Orientation to
voter
Mobilizing, voters = loyal
partisans
Converting and mobilizing,
voters = loyal partisans and
floating
Interactive, voters =
consumers
Hyper interactive, voters
= interested, personal
Internal power
distribution
Local-centric National-centric Local-/national centric,
bifurcation
Local-/national-centric,
individual and networked
![Page 30: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
TWITTER AS A CAMPAIGN TOOL
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The Dutch parliament elections of 2010
Significantly larger implementation of Twitter
as a campaign instrument
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But …
What does it do?
Level the playing field?equalisation hypothesis
or
Nothing changesnormalisation hypothesis
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TWITTER ADOPTION RATE IN THE NETHERLANDS 2010
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Several indicatorsNumber of people following the candidate (followers)Number of people followed by candidate (following)Number of Tweets (number of original messages)Number of replies
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0%
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EXPLAINING TWITTER ADOPTION
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Subscribing to Twitter
• Party age is unrelated to Twitter adoption
• Ideology is unrelated to Twitter adoption
• Candidate rank on election list is related (higher ranked -> more adoption)
• External shock is related: loss of seats if prior elections -> more adoption)
• Internal shock (leadership uncertainty) is unrelated
![Page 44: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Subscribing to Twitter
• Male and female candidates adopt Twitter as likely
• Younger candidates adopt Twitter more likely
![Page 45: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
The number of tweets
• The longer a candidate is subscribed to Twitter, the more Tweets s/he sends
![Page 46: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
The number of followers• The older the party is, the more followers the candidate has
• The higher ranked the candidate, the more followers s/he has
• The more seats the party won in the last elections, the more followers the candidate has
• Candidates from parties with leadership uncertainties have more followers
• Candidates who are subscribed longer, have more followers
![Page 47: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
The number of following
• The lower ranked candidates follow more other people on Twitter
• Candidates from parties who lost in prior elections follow more others on Twitter
• Candidates from parties with leadership uncertainty follow less others on Twitter
• Longtime subscribers to Twitter follow more others on Twitter
![Page 48: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
The number of reciprocated relations (follower and following)
• Candidates of parties that have leadership uncertainties have less reciprocated relations on Twitter
• Longtime subscribers have more reciprocated relations in Twitter
![Page 49: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
MICRO-BLOGGING ACTIVITIES Trends running up to Election Day
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Research questions
1. To what degree do candidates and the public engage in public discussions on the Web?
2. To what extent is do parties engage in online communications?
3. Do discussions take place within the boundaries of the party (i.e. many small ideological public spheres consisting of homogeneous networks) or are they crossing party boundaries?
![Page 51: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
• All candidates
• All tweets in 40 days prior to Election Day
• Inner circleAll tweets of Twitter users that follow
candidates
• Outer circleTwitter users , not following candidates, but who can be (re)tweeted to
![Page 52: Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110113/5451e636af7959863f8b478b/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Findings
• All messages: n=4,451,128 sent out by the candidates and the inner circle of the candidates
• nearly half of all messages is undirected, i.e. sent to no one in particular.
• About a third is sent to people on Twitter not following any candidates (i.e. outer circle).
• Little over a sixth of the messages are sent to people following at least one candidate,
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Number of tweets by politicians during last 40 days of campaign
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CDA PvdA SP VVD PVV GL CU D66
PvdD SGP NN TON MenS HNL Partij1 Piraten
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CDA pvda SP VVD PVV GL CU D66 PvdD SGP NN TON MenS HN P1 Piraten
Number of tweets sent to politicians during last 40 days of campaign
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CDA pvda SP VVD PVV GL CU D66 PvdD SGP NN TON MenS HN P1 Piraten
Number of replies by politicians during last 40 days of campaign
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COMMUNICATION NETWORKSCandidates’ political blogging sphere
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• Only few replies• Little reciprocity in general • Reciprocity decreases when activity increases
• Level playing field?
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Conclusion
• Social media’s success kills the social part of social media
• Successfull candidates turn social media into mass media
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So . . .
… back to square one?
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Thank you for your attention
Maurice VergeerWeb: www.mauricevergeer.nlEmail: [email protected]
Twitter: @mauricevergeer
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Sources• Hermans, L. & Vergeer, M. (forthcoming). Personalisation in e-campaigning
Cross national comparison of personalisation strategies used on candidate websites in EP-elections 2009. New media & Society.
• Vergeer, M. Hermans, L. & Sams, S. (2011). Is the voter only a tweet away? Micro-blogging during the 2009 European parliament Election campaign in the Netherlands, First Monday, 16(8).
• Vergeer, M., & Hermans, L. (2011). New public deliberations. Twitter as a new campaign tool for public discussions. Paper presented at World Association of Public Opinion Research (Wapor).
• Vergeer, M., Hermans, L. & Sams, S. (in press). Online social networks and micro-blogging in political campaigning: The exploration of a new campaign tool and a new campaign style. Party Politics.
• Vergeer, M., Hermans, L., & Cunha, C. (forthcoming). Political parties, candidates, and Web campaigning in the 2009 European Parliament elections. A decade of cross-national comparative website-feature analysis
• Vergeer, M., Lim, Y.S., & Park, H.W. (2011). Mediated relations: new methods to study online social capital. Asian Journal of Communication, October 2011 issue
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• Vergeer, M., & Hermans, L. Campaigning on Twitter. Twitter as a campaign tool in the general elections 2010 in the Netherlands. (submitted for publication)
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