Weather Services for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

______________________________________________________Larisa Nikitina,

Sochi, Russian Federation

Larisa Nikitina,

Head of the forecast verification group, Aviamettelecom of Roshydromet, Moscow

Forecaster for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics

Brief self-presentation:

45 km

Coastal cluster

Mountain cluster

Sochi

Coastal cluster

Welcome to Sochi 2014!

Is hosted by the city of Sochi from 7-23 February and 7-16 March within 2 clusters:

Coastal (ice sport competitions)

Mountain (snow sport competitions)._________________________

http://www.sochi2014.com/en/

Winter Olympic / Paralympic games of 2014

45 km

Coastal cluster

Mountain cluster

Sochi

Sochi

Mountain cluster

with alpine climate zones (650-2300m): mild winter and warm summer.

2 clusters with different climate:

45 km

Coastal cluster with maritime

subtropical climate: warm winter and hot summer.

• Subtropical climate with unique warm weather for Russia (the average winter temperature about +5⁰C),

• Black sea near Sochi does not freeze during the winter and can cause winter thunderstorms,

• Northern Caucasus ridge protects Sochi against arctic cold but not from snow.

Coastal cluster

• The average winter temperature in the mountain cluster is -1…-6⁰C

• Monthly snow depth for Games time is:

– 2-4 meters for 2000 m elevation

– 1-1.5 meters for 1500 m elevation

• Snow in some places stays all year round

Mountain Cluster

Good weather forecasts and data are critical to the success of the outdoor events of

winter Olympics. It can help to:

• minimize negative effects of poor weather on athletes;

• complete all events in time to satisfy broadcasters and spectators;

• provide safety of participants and spectators;

• meet needs of emergency responders and transportation system operators.

Weather impacts on the Games operations:

Weather impacts on the Games operations(2):

WIS for the Games is provided by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology (Roshydromet) and consists of the following elements:

–Office of Main Meteorologist and Weather Situation center in Sochi;–Coordination Meteo Centre in Krasnaya Polyana;–5 local weather offices within 5 venues:

1. «Rosa Khutor» Alpine Center;2. «X-treme» Snowboard Park &

Freestyle Center;3. «Sanki» Sliding Center;4. «RusSki Gorki» Jumping Center;5. «Laura» Cross-country Ski &

Biathlon Center.

Weather information service – WIS

• Monitoring (46 AMS, Sochi MRL and Akhun DMRL, MRRs, profilers, soundings);

• Forecasting (from 15 min up to 6 days);

• Services (consultation and other forecasts – medical, media, transport);

• Climate data (for Sport Directors and Managers / OCOG);

• Science Support (Frost 2014).________________________________________

http://meteosochi2014.ru/

Structure of weather service:

• global observations, cloudiness - geostationary satellite IR WV and visible data;

• meteorological parameters maps, such as fog coverage, cloud top height, precipitation, etc;

• specialized satellite meteoanalysis maps, such as the Black Sea area snow cover distribution, snow depth, snow water equivalent, surface wind;

• environmental products, such as sea and snow pollution monitoring;

• products for climate monitoring, such as sea-surface temperature.----------------------------------------------

Russian Scientific Research Center "Planeta”- http://planet.iitp.ru/

Satellite products for forecaster:

• Synoptic method – weather maps and satellites;

• Remote sounding - DMRL, profilers, MRRs;

• NWP models- meso-scale –COSMO-RU (7km), WRF, ECMWF, GFS, RHMC; local -COSMO-RU (2,2 km), GEM, ARPA, HARMONIE , NMMB; ensemble GLAMEPS, ARPA-EPS, NMMB-EPS….

• Nowcasting systems – CARDS, INTW, ABOM, MeteoExpert

Forecasting tools:

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/

50 forecasters and technicians from all over the Russia

Forecasting team:

• Intricate mixture of maritime subtropical and Alpine environments;

• Sharp weather contrasts and high spatial and temporal variability;

• Very steep and oppositely directed (north and south) mountainous terrain;

• The lack of the previous observations as well as the experience of forecasting, warnings and nowcasting.

Forecasting and Nowcasting challenges:We may have an El Nino every four years, but we've never had a January in a hundred years like

the one we had in 2010. This is the kind of thing that happens, and everybody have to prepare for itJohn Furlong, Vancouver 2010

Some conceptual models for Sochi:1. Winter weather in Sochi is mainly

determined by the quasi-stationary Black Sea baric depression in the impact of the Asian anticyclone

2. Rapidly passing cyclones accompanied by winds, snow- and rainfall (on the “warm waves”) are alternated with cold anti-cyclonic intrusions (on the “cold waves”).

Some MeteoOffices in the venues:

Biathlon

Alpine Ski

Costal cluster

And do remember: you are always warmly welcome to Sochi!