MEMPHIS CWSU

WEATHER IMPACT PLAYBOOK

Created on 9/4/2011 9:01:00 PM

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CWSU Memphis

Weather Impact

Playbook

Last Updated ______________________

MIC______________________________

Employee Initials ______/_______/_______/

MEMPHIS CWSU

WEATHER IMPACT PLAYBOOK

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GENERAL INFORMATION

Names/Contacts ARTCC ZME

AIR TRAFFIC

AIR TRAFFIC MGR ZME-1 TIMOTHY NELSON 368-8101

ATM SECRETARY JETTIE PORTER 368-8160

ZME-1A CLIFTON JORDAN 368-8534

ZME-1B RODNEY MCNEIL 368-8529

QUALITY CONTROL (505) RICHARD LUCK 368-8505

PLANNING/REQ (510) STEVE KAESER 368-8510

OPERATIONS SUP (530) DANNY FLOWERS 368-8530

IT KAREN RHODES-TODD 368-8166

TRAINING (17) ROBERT GILL 368-8517

TMU OFFICER JASON CANTON 368-8547

TMU supervisors (STMC) BILLY CALDWELL 368-8250

JIM WATKINS “

RANDY JACKSON “

FLIGHT DATA JACQUIE LEE 368-8115

MEMPHIS TWR MANAGER MIKE BAKER

MEMPHIS TWR TMU(M03) MARK CLAYTON 842-8408

TECH OPS

SOC - MGR GARY FETZ 368-8244

SOC NOM DUTY PERSON 368-8304

LOCAL MEMPHIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

MIC JIM BELLES 544-0407

SOO TOM SALEM 544-0401

WCM RICH OKULSKY 544-0401

ESA DEAN KLIMT 544-0413

AVIATION FOCAL POINT PHIL BAKER 544-0401

ASA CAROLYN GLOVER 544-0399

SOUTHERN REGION

RAM PAUL WITSAMAN 817-978-1100 X116

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FACILITY STRUCTURE

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MEMPHIS CWSU

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AREAS / FRONT LINE MANAGER OFFICES

ONE - 8108 / 8182

TWO - 8237 / 8183

THREE- 8107 / 8169

FOUR - 8252 / 8151

FIVE - 8238 / 8180

SIX - 8106 / 8179

FAA FACILITIES OUTSIDE MEMPHIS ARTCC

TRACONS:

MEMPHIS

TWR Mgr MIKE BAKER 322-3350

Tracon Supervisors:

VSCS 7-344 and holler “TRACON, Center Weather”

Tower TMU (M03) SPECIALISTS

SCOTT CAMPBELL 842-8447

BEVERLYN ELLISON “

KEVIN KITSON “

NASHVILLE Mgr Sherry Jenson

VSCS hit the BNA 383 box and Holler “Nashville 19 Line, Memphis Center

Weather”

LITTLE ROCK Mgr Roger Luck

VSCS use keypad 7-333-62 they should answer

FORT SMITH

VSCS use keypad 7-338-56 they should answer

JACKSON Mgr Oscar Branch

VCSC use keypad 7-326-84 they should answer

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HUB/PACING AIRPORTS

MEM - Memphis International

RUSH PERIODS - 7am- 8:30am; 12pm-1:15pm; 5:30-7pm mainly DELTA

FEDERAL EXPRESS 8:30-10am (inbound, ex M), 3:30-5:00pm (outbound)

10:30-1:00am MAIN PUSH (M-F ONLY)

outbounds 2:30-4:30 AM M-F ONLY

TAF SITES WITHIN ZME AND RESPONSIBLE WFO’S

MEMPHIS JACKSON HUNTSVILLE

MEM- Memphis, TN JAN – Jackson Intl. MSL - Muscle Shoals

JBR - Jonesboro, AR GLH – Greenville HSV – Huntsville MKL-McKellar (Jackson, TN) GWO – Greenwood

TUP- Tupelo, MS

TULSA LITTLE ROCK LOUISVILLE

FSM- Fort Smith, AR LIT- Little Rock Adams Field BWG – Bowling Green

XNA- Northwest Arkansas Regional PBF – Pine Bluff Grider Field FYV- Fayetteville, AR HRO - Harrison

HOT – Hot Springs

PADUCAH

PAH- Paducah, KY

CGI- Cape Girardeau, MO EVV- Evansville, IN

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GENERAL INFORMATION

The National Airspace System

Weather causes more delays to traffic within the NAS than any other factor. The CCFP

was created to address the issue however radical un-forecast changes in weather

conditions in the tactical realm (0-2 hours from forecast time) continue to cause the

biggest system impact. The job of Traffic Management, both in the centers and at the

ATCSCC, is to regulate the flow of traffic to keep individual sector volume manageable

and safe. When adverse weather is expected, such as thunderstorms, icing or turbulence,

TMU needs to reduce the sector volume to account for aircraft that will be deviating

around those hazards, whether vertically, laterally or both. That‘s why quality tactical

and strategic forecasts can help the FAA make the system safer while also making it

more efficient, saving time and money for the customer, including the flying public.

This diagram represents a snapshot of all IFR traffic (operating on a flight plan) within a

24 hour period circa 2003. As can be clearly seen, most of the operations occur in the

northeast and north-central states between Chicago and the east coast. Memphis, Dallas,

Houston and Atlanta also represent significant volume centers. A close examination of

this diagram reveals where the busiest sectors reside within ZME—mainly across the

northern and central sections of the airspace.

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Hub and Spoke Concept America‘s major airlines operate under a ―hub‖ and ―spoke‖ system. The reason for this

characterization results from the airline route map resembling a bicycle wheel, with a

center hub and spokes emanating out in all directions toward the tire. The concept starts

with a traveler boarding a plane at one of the spokes and proceeding to the hub airport,

where upon the traveler will change planes on move on toward their destination, another

spoke. This concept saves money by centralizing an airline‘s operations, as opposed to

many flights flying nonstop from city to city in a more frenzied array.

NAS Traffic Flows as they relate to Memphis Center

The lion‘s share of scheduled airline flights traversing ZME are ―over-flights‖ en route to

or from the following hub airports: Dallas (DFW and DAL), Atlanta (ATL), and Houston

(IAH and HOU). A lesser volume crosses the airspace en-route to hubs at Chicago

(ORD), St. Louis (STL), Cincinnati (CVG) and Charlotte (CLT). Within Memphis

Center there are only two airports that originate or terminate a significant volume of

traffic, Memphis (MEM) and Nashville (BNA).

List of the nearby hub airports and their predominate air carriers:

Dallas Fort Worth:…………..American

Atlanta Hartsfield:…………..Delta, Air Tran

Houston George Bush:………Continental

Dallas Love………………… Southwest

Houston Hobby…………… Southwest

Chicago O‘Hare:…………….United, American

Charlotte Douglas:………… US Airways

Memphis…………………… Delta, Federal Express

Louisville……………………UPS Airlines

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Overview of Major Jet Routes and VORTACs in Memphis Center:

J6 is the major feed from the northeast to Houston and Dallas. It is a one-way jet route,

sw-bound only. It‘s counterpart is J42, which originates out of Dallas and carries ne-

bound traffic only.

J78 is located just north of ZME and carries a considerable amount of transcon traffic

both east and west. If this route is blocked with weather the common bail-out route is

into ZME using J6-J46 or shortcuts in that area. Traffic volume can increase greatly

causing major problems for ZME controllers—even when weather inside ZME is clear

and 100.

J89 is located just east of ZME and carries a considerable amount of traffic to and north

Florida and the upper Midwest. When weather blocks J89, especially in Indianapolis

Center airspace, traffic is often moved west to routes over BNA or even MEM. Again,

this can increase business for ZME controllers even if our weather is clear and 100.

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Traffic Patterns to the Hubs

Following are some graphics that describe traffic patterns into the major hubs that affect

ZME decision-making and are most prone to be impacted by weather in and near ZME:

DFW: The two most important feeds to DFW from ZME are routes beginning in LIT and

FSM feeding the BYP (Bonham Five) arrival. Considerable traffic comes southwest-

bound on J6 to LIT then transitions to BYP, while traffic originating further north is fed

to FSM then to BYP. If one or both of those transitions is closed due to weather they are

forced into using a CQY (Cedar Creek Six) arrival, which diverts J6 traffic at BWG south

to SQS to pick up the transition and diverts FSM traffic to the west side gates and out of

ZME. If both the BYP transition and SQS (or CQY) are blocked due to weather they

will usually gate swap to a playbook involving the Bowie and Glen Rose west gates,

which takes the traffic out of ZME.

ATL: The two most important feeds to ATL from ZME are routes beginning in MEM

and BNA feeding the RMG (Rome Three) arrival. If MEM is blocked, or the route

between MEM and RMG, traffic will be diverted to either the BNA transition or the MEI

transition to the LGC (LaGrange One) arrival gate depending on volume. If the BNA

transition is blocked that traffic may be routed further west and south to pick up the

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MEM transition, or if RMG is closed, to LGC. If both west gates to ATL are closed due

to weather then quite often the traffic will be pulled out of ZME to the north for transition

into the northeast gate, or run over across Area Four to be vectored onto the southeast

gate. Usually if such a thing occurs ATL goes into a Ground Delay program.

IAH: The two most important feeds to IAH from ZME are routes beginning in LIT and

JAN. Traffic from the northeast feeds into LIT from J6 (southwestbound traffic only)

while traffic from the north arrives on J101, J131, and J137. All of these aircraft are then

sequenced onto J180 (LIT-SWB) to pick up the transition to DAS (Daisetta). You will

hear controllers reference ―Little Rock-J180‖ when discussing this route.

Meanwhile, traffic from the east into JAN arrives on J4 while other traffic from airports

in the Mid-Atlantic is vectored to JAN to pick up the transition via AEX (Alexandria,

LA) to DAS. You will hear controllers refer to this as ―Jackson-Alex‖. If LIT or J180 is

blocked by weather the usual remedy is to move traffic west to TTT (Cowboy, or Dallas,

TX) to intercept arrival gates on the northwest side of IAH. If JAN-AEX is blocked the

usual remedy is moving traffic further south into ZHU airspace to the Wolde arrival or

further north involving LIT or MEM.

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Traffic Corridors and ‘choke points’ within ZME

Here are the major choke points that ZME CWSU meteorologists should be focusing on

during their met-watch...

Atlanta traffic in white lines, Chicago in purple. Traffic to ATL is blended over MEM, BNA and MEI. A

bulk of the north-south traffic to and from Chicago airports and Florida uses J89, which is east of ZME

airspace, but weather along that route can push traffic west into ZME.

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Traffic flow into DFW. Most Northeast US to DFW aircraft use J6 from BWG to LIT, then to Bonham

(BYP) the NE arrival gate for DFW. Others are blended over Elm Grove (EMG) into the Cedar Creek

(CQY) fix the SE arrival gate. Upper Midwest traffic passes RZC or FSM on its way to BYP.

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Traffic flows into Houston Intercontinental/Hobby. Most traffic is blended over LIT, JAN and sometimes

MEI. J180 between LIT and SWB is an important corridor.

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Traffic Management Initiatives Since weather is such a major impact on NAS operations, Traffic Management units both

nationally and regionally use ―TMU Initiatives‖ to regulate the flow based on expected

and occurring impacts. These tools include, but are not limited to Severe Weather

Avoidance Plans (SWAPs), Playbook Reroutes, Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops,

Miles-In-Trail, Capping and Tunneling, and Airspace Flow Programs (AFPs) (see

definitions).

SWAPs and PLAYBOOK reroutes

Here is an example of a playbook reroute that might be used to avoid weather problems

around the DFW airport:

The complete list of playbook routes can be found here:

http://www.fly.faa.gov/PLAYBOOK/pbindex.html

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Airspace Flow Programs

An Airspace Flow Program (AFP) is a traffic management initiative that identifies

constraints in the en-route system, develops a real-time list of flights that are filed into the

constrained area, and distributes ‗expect departure clearance times‘ (EDCTs) to meter the

demand through the area.

If an AFP is issued and a flight is included the pilot will receive an EDCT. Meeting

departure time is important because it allows traffic managers to properly meter flights

through the constrained area being controlled by the AFP.

It‘s up to the Command Center as to whether an AFP or Playbook reroute is used, a

decision made in consultation with TMUs at each affected Center. Those decisions are

heavily influenced by CWSU weather input, either through the CCFP or face-to-face

consultation. Quite often an AFP might result in as much delay to a flight as using a

Playbook route, since the miles-in-trail will generally be greater passing through the

―Flow-Constricted Area‖ defined in the AFP.

Capping and Tunneling

Refers to restrictions placed on aircraft entering busy sections of airspace that might

result in their being limited to certain altitude structures (below FL200, for instance).

Ground Delay Programs

This is a strategic program that stretches out arrivals to affected airports to obtain a

manageable flow level due to forecast weather (or runway repairs, accidents, etc). GDPs

can often produce less volume in Memphis Center and the surrounding airspace as

aircraft are held longer on the ground before entering the NAS.

Ground Stops

A ground stop is a fire extinguisher type of mechanism only enacted after an airport

cannot take any arrivals due to weather or any other obstruction. The purpose is to stop

all departures across the country, or perhaps within one or two ―tiers‖ from ZME (tiers

being the adjacent centers). Usually when a GS is issued aircraft are already holding, so

the idea is to prevent sector saturation, which can lead to a domino effect up the line to

affect adjacent sectors and centers. A GS doesn‘t always mean the forecast (or TMU

plan) was a bust—often times the forecast will lead TMU/TRACON to assume they‘ll get

‗shut off‘ (TRACON not accepting any more handoffs at the arrival gates) and they will

consequently run traffic right up to the point of impact whereupon a GS will be issued.

For a more complete explanation of any of the above terms simply ask TMU.

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Memphis International Airport

Memphis is a major hub for both Northwest Airlines and Federal Express. FedEx is the

largest air cargo carrier in the world and they have made Memphis International the

busiest cargo airport in the world. FedEx operates hundreds of flights in and out of

Memphis during the weekdays. Northwest rush periods occur at three distinct times

during the day.

The four ‗arrival gates‘ to MEM. For an explanation of the routes used to reach these

arrival fixes, refer to the Memphis STARS documentation.

Delta Operations

As of this writing MEM is one still one of the main hubs for Delta Airlines, taking over

the previous hub run by Northwest Airlines prior to their 2010 merger. Traffic volume

has decreased since Delta announced MEM would be a ‗flow hub‘ (we are not sure what

that means), at any rate, there are still three main arrival pushes: morning (7 am – 830

am); midday (12 noon – 1:30 pm) and late afternoon (5:00 – 6:30 pm). Since the airport

terminal building is located near the center of all the runways Delta has no real

preference as to which runway configuration is used.

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Federal Express Operations

Federal Express operations have made Memphis International Airport the busiest cargo

airport in the United States and second busiest in the world. Fedex has four distinct

heavy traffic periods, two inbound and two outbound. The heavy outbound rushes occur

in the later afternoon and during the wee hours of the morning. The corresponding

inbound pushes occur during the mid morning at late evening hours. The main push

occurs M-F between 10 pm and 1 am local time. During this period over 150 airplanes

can be scheduled to arrive. Obviously, weather can have an adverse impact.

Fedex aircraft at Memphis ramp

Due to the Fedex hub‘s location on the north end of the airport they prefer to land their

inbounds to the north using runways 36L and 36R and east/west on 9-27, then after re-

loading depart south using 18L, 18C or 18R or east/west on 9-27. This saves both time

and taxi fuel, which can add up over the course of a year. Obviously if done on the same

night these operations involve a downwind takeoff or landing, something pilots normally

do not prefer, but an operation they can tolerate if the winds are about 10 kt or less on the

tail.

To set the configuration for a tailwind landing the FAA MEM Tower requires a forecast

of no more than 7 kt during the evening planning sessions. 8 kt or more between 160 and

200 degrees will usually result in the planning or a south operation, which not only

removes the time/taxi savings but also results in a lower airport acceptance rate.

ZME Forecasters need to make the call before the 615pm planning telcon. This is

accomplished by filling out the Overnight Briefing sheet and providing to STMC or

designated personnel in advance of the telcon. ZME forecasters are also expected to call

into this planning telcon and be available for a quick synopsis or other questions if asked.

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Memphis Airport aerial view showing the Federal Express Hub at the top of the picture

(north end of the field).

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Here is the tailwind component chart used by the Tower to determine configuration

during downwind operations:

Compression:

ZME forecasters should notify TMU and TWR personnel as far in advance as possible

(ideally before the Overnight Briefing is issued during the evening) whenever low level

winds at 1000 and 2000 feet are expected to be more than 35 kt. Low level jets of 40+ kt

are common in the mid-south during the cool season and can cause a reduction in the

acceptance rate due to aircraft being slowed down in ground-speed once they turn final.

ZME has a ―compression calculator‖ available on the S:/ drive, feel free to use it to

estimate the reduction in AAR or when asked by TMU personnel.

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MEM arrivals w/Handy:

HANDY

Another important factor to consider for the nightly Fedex push is whether Handy Ops

can be used. HANDY is an intersection formed by two airways to the north-northeast of

Memphis, just west of the traditional WLDER gate. Fed Ex prefers to use this gate along

with WLDER whenever possible to allow a more efficient flow coming from the

northeast, but it can only be used weather-permitting. Surface winds must favor a north

operation (36L&R+27) with sky conditions allowing for visual approaches, meaning no

clouds below about 2000 feet and visibility greater than 5 miles. HANDY cannot be used

in south operations or during times when only two runways are available (regardless of

wind direction).

Acceptance Rates and other thresholds

To further understand weather impacts on terminal ops we need to discuss the term

―acceptance rates‖ (AAR). In a nutshell, acceptance rates are simply the number of

planes a tower can accommodate per hour based on conditions. These numbers can

sometimes change and are available either through TMU, Towers, or on the CWSU web

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page. In a nutshell, ‗severe clear‘ conditions produce the highest rates. As conditions

drop, the rate drops. Airport acceptance rate/volume can be seen by visiting the ―Airport

Demand‖ chart linked on the ZME website:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/zme/www/demand.php

When conditions reach the point where tower controllers cannot visually identify aircraft

on final approach within 3 miles of the field then sequencing for cross-runway operations

must cease. Ceilings anywhere from 900 to 1500 feet (varies depending on the crew

working the event) may cause this loss, which precludes the use of runway 9-27,

lowering the rate.

IFR or LIFR conditions combined with different types of arriving airplanes can also gum

up the works. CWSU forecasters might hear the terms ―CAT I, CAT II or CAT III‖.

Most of the Fedex‘s aircraft are CAT III capable, which means a plane can land with an

RVR value of around 700 feet (even zero-zero if airplane and crew are qualified),

however Fedex employs a small fleet of Cessna 208 Caravan turboprops that cannot

handle CAT III approaches.

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Acceptance Rates

Acceptance rates (AAR), sometimes called arrival rates, are a simple expression of how

many aircraft an airport can handle per hour based on the weather conditions. The

calculation depends largely on how much available concrete an airport has. For instance,

the BNA airport has four runways and an acceptance rate near 100, however they don‘t

have enough airline volume (demand) to ever exceed the threshold (except when

thunderstorms reduce the airport to a rate of zero). The only airport in ZME where AARs

ever come into play is MEM, and mainly for the Fedex overnight operation.

The rates sometimes change based on tweaks to the calculation, so check with TMU for

the latest published rates or reference the ADMZME message in AWIPS ARD, which

should have the latest rates on it.

Graphic Example of inbound Fed Ex rush

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This is an example of unexpected low ceilings that hit the airport during an inbound push.

The airplanes have 10 minute tracks. Notice the holding patterns at 3 gates. If the

holding continues long enough some of the airplanes will be forced to fly to their

alternates and refuel. These are called ―diverts‖ or ―diversions‖ and are not very popular.

Nashville International Airport

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As of this writing Nashville airport is no longer a hub for any airline. Southwest operates

a number of flights per day, but the volume of all scheduled flights is less than the

airport‘s capacity at any given time. Even during periods of LIFR Nashville may find it

difficult to reach their capacity, therefore operations are not as critical as at Memphis.

BNA sits relatively close to the J. Percy Priest reservoir, which is located about 3-5 miles

east of runway 2R/20L. In the late summer and fall fog often forms on the lake and

drifts west to impact the airport. There can be times where the eastern side of the field is

near zero/zero while the west half might be clear.

Another impact can be wind direction. If a northwest or southeast wind develops at

speeds of 18 knots or more (especially over 23 knots) or frequent gusts reach those

numbers, the tower may be forced into a one-runway operation using only 13/31. This

can cause minor delays if un-forecast.

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Nashville International Airport aerial view. Notice the close proximity of the J. Percy Priest reservoir to

the east of the field.

STAR arrival routes for BNA:

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References Section

Basic Flight Rules

Meteorologists entering the CWSU environment should become familiar with some of

the basic rules pertaining to flight set forth by the FAA. These rules are available in

detail by accessing the Aeronautical Information Manual.

Here is a quick and dirty rundown of some of the main rules that a CWSU meteorologist

may want to become familiar with, starting with VFR/IFR and types of airspace:

Direction of flight

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Classes of airspace. Most traffic handled by ZME controllers is within Class A and Class

E airspace.

Basic weather minimums and direction of flight

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Military Operating Areas

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WIND ROSES for Memphis These graphics provide a visual representation of wind direction and speed for MEM.

JANUARY

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FEBRUARY

MARCH

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APRIL

MAY

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JUNE

JULY

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AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

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OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

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DECEMBER