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Weather Forecasting Science and Service Delivery Gerald Fleming Slide 2 Met Services Scientific training informs culture Exact use of words and phrases Tradition of scientific papers Information needs study and thought Command of detail Emphasis on routine services Interchangeability of staff Procedures before people Slide 3 Scientist Stereotypes Introverted Serious Earnest Precise Intense Disconnected from the ordinary world Bookish Slide 4 Media and Media People Creative training and background Competing for attention shouting loudest Concept of Editorial Responsibility Different media have different drivers; TV, Internet Strength of Images Radio Voice Quality Newspapers Writing Quality (story telling) All are PERSONALITY driven Slide 5 Media Stereotypes Talkative Loud Emotional Partying / Drinking / etc Self-centered Self-important Shallow Slide 6 Meteorology and the Media There are commonalities (especially with weather scientists?) Curiosity Value Experience Work in a time-bound manner Weather Broadcasters speak to both sides Draw suspicion from both sides! Slide 7 Public Service and the Media Media are always a special case! A medium to other, ultimate, users. Will have a large say in shaping the weather services offered through them. May impede feedback from ultimate users to NMHSs Media are partly a client and partly a medium. NMHS must satisfy two different sets of requirements. Slide 8 Remembering our beginnings... Meteorology (in the modern sense) was conceived as a response to a problem the loss of sailing ships in stormy weather. The development of Meteorology was greatly driven by the needs of Aviation in the middle years of the 20 th century. Since then the development has been driven primarily by science, especially through Numerical Weather Prediction and Remote Sensing technologies. Slide 9 A Complex Challenge The development of our science has brought us the capability of providing a lot of useful information to society. Society itself has become much more complex, and there is a wide diversity of need, from the most under- developed countries to the most developed. The problems facing society are many and multi-faceted. The connections between daily life and Meteorology are not as obvious as they once were. We must work harder to embed our products and services in business and in society. Slide 10 Credibility Cannot over-emphasise the importance of personal contact. Humans invest credibility in other humans not necessarily in systems or organisations. The NMHS contact point to the user personifies the service. This person carries the brand of the NMHS Careful selection and training of suitable people is required. Slide 11 The Web a special case Has vastly increased the amount of available weather information. Driven by ease of use and ease of access. Has weakened the importance of the personality as presenter of weather. This will change as bandwidth increases and compression techniques improve. A challenge to NMHSs can we also become good broadcasters? Slide 12 WMO Guidelines on Weather Presentation Prepared by weather forecasters / broadcasters / experts. Published on the WMO Website URL: www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/publ icationsguidelines_en.htm www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/publ icationsguidelines_en.htm Easier URL: www.iabm.orgwww.iabm.org Slide 13 Weather Broadcast Guidelines Presenting the Weather the challenge Building a story from the facts How much can you put in? Filtering and funneling Threading the facts together Reiteration Ending with a punch Slide 14 Weather Broadcast Guidelines Visualising the weather story Television is a visual medium Different tools for different situations Strengths and weaknesses of graphic systems Visual structure of the forecast Composition of the charts Timing Does it make sense with the sound down? Slide 15 Weather Broadcast Guidelines Effective use of Language Breaking free from the language of science Breaking free from clich Weather is a sensory experience Clarity and Enthusiasm are important Pausing, Punching Breaking free from bad habits Dont be afraid to be different Slide 16 Weather Broadcast Guidelines The Communication of Uncertainty A new, and growing area Ensemble techniques give probability forecasts How best to describe and communicate these? Need to preserve the confidence of the viewer Communicate uncertainty in words or in figures? Very important for: Hurricane/storm forecast tracks Seasonal outlooks Slide 17 Radio Broadcast Guidelines Guidelines published on Weather Broadcasting for Radio The Importance of the Voice Clarity Pacing Pitch Accent Scripting Slide 18 What is a forecast for? A forecast is an OUTPUT of our work. It acts as an INPUT to decision-making by users. Decision-making can be simple or sophisticated The decision is the ultimate OUTCOME. A forecast is USELESS until someone uses it to make a decision! Slide 19 Information into Knowledge Must package and share the information Users apply knowledge to their own problems Probabilistic products need careful interpretation Decisions are normally deterministic Slide 20 How do we experience weather? The wind, the rain, the temperature.. Weather is a Tactile Experience The primary organ through which we experience weather is our skin! We cannot measure feelings so we observe the weather with instrumentation. Slide 21 One description of the process of weather forecasting.. Feel the weather Define the elements of weather Measure the elements Collect the measurements Calculate the evolution of the elements Represent the results (words, graphs, pictures) Describe how it will feel Slide 22 One description of the process of weather forecasting.. Feel the weather Define the elements of weather Measure the elements Collect the measurements Calculate the evolution of the elements Represent the results (words, graphs, pictures) Describe how it will feel Slide 23 The basics of weather forecasting Find out what is happening now Understand the dynamics of the atmosphere Predict where the weather systems will be tomorrow What does that mean for the wind, the rain, the temperatures?? Slide 24 Process of producing a forecast Feel the weather as you step outside the door! Examine the situation NOW Observations Satellite imagery Radar Imagery Synoptic chart Upper-air chart Tephigram Slide 25 Process of producing a forecast Look back history of the weather over the previous days (it helps if you were working yesterday!) Examine the airmasses warm / cold dry / moist stable / unstable Slide 26 Process of producing a forecast Time to look forward Examine time-series of prognostic charts (progs) Range of different elements Variety of different models Variety of temporal and spatial resolution Areas of coverage Slide 27 Process of producing a forecast Model parameters Surface pressure Upper-air geopotential height Upper-air temperatures 850hPa w Surface precipitation Winds; surface, 950hPa, 500hPa, Jetstream Slide 28 Process of producing a forecast Range of models known as the Poor Mans Ensemble Can demonstrate significant differences in the synoptic evolution How do we reconcile these? Slide 29 Process of producing a forecast History which models have been performing best in the recent past. Prejudice, or favouritism! Consideration of model strengths, especially vis--vis the synoptic situation Is there a reason for the divergence? Developments in observation-poor regions Extra-tropical transitions Slide 30 Format the Forecast Words To be read To be spoken Images Technical, e.g. synoptic chart Simpler weather icons Numbers e.g. temperature, Beaufort Force Tables for specialised users (e.g. wave height, period) Slide 31 Presenting the Forecast How much meaning comes through WHAT we say? 7% !! How much from HOW we say it? 38% ! The rest 55% - from how we LOOK when we are saying it. (Albert Mehrabian) Slide 32 Ten Guidelines of Good Weather Broadcasting Good Knowledge Look Presentable Be Organised Take Charge of the Studio Tell the story in a clear, concise manner Be Natural Good Eyeline and Eye Contact Pitching and pausing Explain the technical terms Funnel the information down to the forecast message