Weather forecasting EG1204 Earth Systems Dr Jonathan Lageard.
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Transcript of Weather forecasting EG1204 Earth Systems Dr Jonathan Lageard.
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Weather forecasting
EG1204 Earth Systems
Dr Jonathan Lageard
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Weather
• ‘Overall state of the atmosphere on a time-scale of minutes to months’ Thomas & Goudie, 2000 p527
• Weather describes specific conditions rain, temperatures, dew-point, wind speed and direction, visibility…
Weather forecasting• ‘The science of predicting the future state of the
atmosphere from very short periods of less than one hour up to 7-10 days ahead’ Thomas & Goudie, 2000 p527
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• Climatic regions / climate graphs
• Mid-latitude weather (UK)
• Weather monitoring / forecasting
• Weather & climate practical
content
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Global temperature patterns (Jan) Barry & Chorley 2003 p43
Global rainfall patterns Holden, 2005 p39
Holden 2005, p30
Hadley cell regime Thompson 1998, p
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Source Flohn 1957 in Barry & Chorley, 1996 p340
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Cool Antarctica, 2007
Climate graphs
Landes-Pyrenees Properties, 2007
London climate graph
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Weather maps
Air Ministry 1941. The Weather Map. London, HMSO
Stirling, 1997 p25
Synoptic weather chart, Met Office 2000
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Stirling, 1997 p28
Weather systems
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Air masses: Source regions
Fronts
JetstreamsAerospace Technology, 2007
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Mid-latitude weather (UK)
Model of N hemisphere atmospheric circulation Thompson 1998 p107 based on Hanwell 1980
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Depressions (cyclonic systems)
a) cross-sectional model
STAGES:
Embryo: Tm & Pm air mix warm air less dense rises in spiral Low Pressure
Mature: Pressure falls warm air rises in warm sector winds inward blowing anticlockwise Coriolis force
Decay: Cold front catches warm front = Occlusion
b) plan form / synoptic chart
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What does a depression look like?
Met Office, 2007
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Weather associated with the passage of a depression
Waugh 1995, p215Cloud patterns associated with a depression Thompson, 1998 p151
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Depression tracks (courses) Stirling, 1997 p30
North Sea storm surge 31st January to 1st February 1953
Impacts:
coastal areas UK, Belgium & Netherlands
Economic damage and community disruption
2,000+ people died across the three countries.
Jonkman SN & Kelman I, 2005
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Anticylcones
Large masses of subsiding warm dry air (settled weather)
winds outward-blowing, clockwise
Associated weather
Summer: hot days (heatwave), rapidly cooling night, land-sea breezes, temperature inversions
Winter: similar, but cold / snow, fog / frost
Stirling, 1997 p28
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Weather system terminology
Musk, 1988
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Weather forecasting: tools / data
Met Office, 2007
Met station, Muckross House, Killarney NP
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Instruments: Met Office, 2007
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Met Office, 2007
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Satellite images
http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
Met Office, 2007
UK observations regional map (Met Office, 2007)
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Met Office, 2007
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Met Office, 2007
‘We interrupt TMS to bring you the following gale warning issued by the Met office at 17.25 GMT Wedesday 14th March…’
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Directed reading:
• Mountain weather / local climates – Holden 2005 pp80-96
• UK weather system variants Met Office 2007 – Learning – Weather resources – Higher - weather systems
• Hurricanes (storm of 1987 – Met Office, 2007, Barry & Chorley 2003 pp269-275)
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Suggested reading
• Barry RG & Chorley RJ 2003. Atmosphere, Weather and Climate (8th Edition). London, Routledge.
• Earth Science and Geography, Keele University 2007. The Weather at Keele (Keele Weather station).
http://www.esci.keele.ac.uk/weather/ (accessed 13.3.07)• Holden J (Ed) 2005. An Introduction to Physical Geography and the
Environment. Harlow, Pearson. (Atmospheric processes, global climates, local & regional climates pp27-96).
• Met Office 2007. Met Office homepage. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/index.html (accessed 12.3.07) Folllow links to Learning – Weather resources - Higher
• O’Hare G, Sweeney J & Wilby R 2005. Weather, Climate and Climate Change. Harlow, Pearson.
• Stirling R 1997. The Weather of Britain. Routledge.• Thomas DSG and Goudie A 2000. The Dictionary of Physical
Geography. Oxford, Blackwell. • Thompson RD 1998. Atmospheric Processes and Systems.
London, Routledge.