Weather • Climate • Water · FAO, UNESCO, ICAO, WHO, WMO, UNCTAD and UNEP, discussed the...

3Climate and tourism

5The climate in 2004

6Adapting to water scarcity in

the tourism industry

6SIDS update

7GCOS Implementation Plan

adopted

8THORPEX

8GURME: improving air

quality services helps localsand tourists

9Oceans in a carbon-rich world

10GOS: recommendations to

2015

11Climate Outlook Forums:

an update

11WMO hosts GEO

12The cryosphere and

winter alpine tourism

World Meteorological Organization

Printed on environmentallyfriendly paper

Issued by the World Meteorological Organization Geneva • Switzerland

No. 27 • June 2005

CONTENTS

Weather • Climate • Water

Climate and tourism—the special theme of this issue (see page 3).Circular photographs courtesy of NOAA Photo Library

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CALENDAR

13-15 JuneWallingford, UnitedKingdomSteering Committee forWCP-Water

14-16 JuneBologna, ItalyWorkshop on ClimaticAnalysis and Mapping forAgriculture

20-24 JuneExeter, United KingdomThe Aviation Seminar

20-24 JuneOrange County,California, United StatesFifth International GEWEXConference

21 June-1 JulyGeneva, SwitzerlandExecutive Council – Fifty-seventh session

13-16 JulySão Paulo, BrazilRegional Technical Meetingon CLIPS andAgrometeorologicalApplications for theMercosur Countries

8-19 AugustLima, PeruCLIPS Focal Point TrainingWorkshop for RA III

29 August-9 SeptemberFortaleza (Ceara), BrazilThirteenth BrazilianMeteorological Congress

5-9 SeptemberToulouse, FranceWWRP Symposium onNowcasting and Very ShortRange Forecasting

5-7 OctoberSt Petersburg, RussianFederationThirteenth session of theGCOS Steering Committee

2 WORLD CLIMATE NEWS • June 2005 No. 27

ForewordClimate and weather, together with people and their surrounding environment, consti-

tute the natural resource base of any country or region for recreation and tourism.

Tourism is currently one of the world’s largest and fastest growing economic sectors.

Many aspects are climate-sensitive and some may adversely affect the Earth’s climate

system itself. Timely and accurate climate information and prediction services, such as

the early warnings and tailored products and services provided by the National

Meteorological and Hydrological Services of WMO’s 187 Members, are vital to the

success of the various components of the sector.

This issue of World Climate News highlights a number of WMO’s activities related to

tourism, including provision of early warnings of natural hazards, the impacts of

shrinking glaciers, receding snow lines and changing water resources, the GURME

project and research findings from the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The lead arti-

cle, contributed by the World Tourism Organization (WTO), shows how tourism

activities support the production and export of goods and services, foreign exchange

earnings and employment—all important factors in sustainable development and the

eradication of poverty.

WTO recognizes the increasing importance of weather and climate information and

prediction of extreme climate events provided by National Meteorological and

Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and is committed to working with WMO and other

international agencies to foster sustainable tourism around the world, maximize

opportunities and reduce threats to the sector.

Some 90 per cent of the world’s natural disasters are related to weather, climate and

water extremes. WMO therefore has a significant role to play in helping WTO reduce

the threats from natural hazards and changes in the climate system. WMO, through its

World Climate Programme, its Commission for Climatology and the NMHSs, will

continue to spearhead international efforts to monitor, collect and analyse climate

data and, in collaboration with WTO, to formulate timely and reliable climate infor-

mation, services and products for use by policy- and decision-makers in the tourism

sector, and by the travellers themselves.

(M. Jarraud)

Secretary-General

For more information about WMO, contact:

The World Meteorological Organization7 bis, avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 2300CH-1211 Geneva 2, SwitzerlandInternet: http://www.wmo.intTel: (41) (0)22 730 8314/8315Fax: (41) (0)22 730 8027E-mail: [email protected]

Orders for publications may be sent to thisaddress or:Tel.: (41) (0)22 730 83 07Fax (direct): (41) (0)22 730 80 22E-mail: [email protected]

Residents of Canada and the USA should orderthrough:The American Meteorological Society,WMO Publications Center,45 Beacon Street, Boston, MA 02108, USATel.: (1) 617 227 2425Fax: (1) 617 742 8718E-mail: [email protected]

The designations employed and the presentation ofmaterial in this publication do not imply the expressionof any opinion whatsoever on the part of theSecretariat of the World Meteorological Organizationconcerning the legal status of any country, territory,city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning thedelimitations of its frontiers or boundaries.

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Tourism has been one of the major eco-nomic and social phenomena of the pastcentury. From an activity enjoyed by asmall group of relatively well-off people atthe beginning of the century, it hadbecome a mass phenomenon in the moredeveloped countries by the 1970s and hasnow reached wider groups of people inmost nations. Total international touristarrivals grew from a mere 25 million in1950 to 760 million in 2004, generatingreceipts of US$ 523 000 million in 2003.Domestic tourist movements are muchhigher than international ones, thoughmore difficult to quantify. According to astudy by WTO, the growth of interna-tional tourist arrivals is likely to increaseby about 4 per cent a year, to reach nearly1 600 million by the year 2020.

Tourism is now a major economic sec-tor in the world. In 2001, 7.5 per cent ofthe worldwide export value of goods andservices came from tourism, surpassingsuch leading industries as automotiveproducts and chemicals. Tourism isalready the largest sector of international

trade in services. For many nations, in par-ticular most Small Island DevelopingStates (SIDS), but also some bigger andmore economically diversified countries,tourism has become the main sector ofeconomic activity, or at least the mainsource of foreign exchange earnings, andan important source of employment.

In addition, the development oftourism is characterized by the continuinggeographical spread and diversification oftourist destinations. Some key qualitative

development trends in tourism include:increased market segmentation; new formsof sustainable tourism, especially thoserelated to nature, wildlife, rural areas andculture; and changes in consumer motiva-tions and behaviour, increasingly charac-terized by a more selective choice of desti-nation, greater attention to the tourismexperience and its quality.

As a result of the rapid expansion ofthe tourism sector, traditional and emerg-ing tourism destinations are facingincreasing pressure on their natural, cul-tural and socio-economic environments.Uncontrolled growth in tourism aiming atshort-term benefits often results in nega-tive impacts, harming the environmentand societies, and destroying the very basison which tourism is built and thrives. Hostsocieties have become progressively awareof the problems of unsustainable tourism,and sustainability concerns are increas-ingly being addressed in local, nationaland regional policies, strategies and plans.

WTO has been promoting sustainabletourism policies and practices, and raising

tourism issues in theglobal sustainabilityagenda. Main activi-ties include the publi-cation of the Agenda21 for the Travel andTourism Sector in1995, contributing tothe 7th Session of theUN Commission onSustainable Develop-ment in 1999, to theWorld Summit onSustainable Devel-opment in 2002( “ J o h a n n e s b u r g

Summit”), to the conference on SIDS(Mauritius, January 2005), developingactivities in the framework of theInternational Year of Ecotourism 2002 andthe current International Year ofMicrocredits. Since the JohannesburgSummit, poverty reduction through sus-tainable tourism has been a major focus ofWTO work, in line with the MillenniumDevelopment Goals. International andnational activities are supported by numer-ous technical publications and manuals on policies and tools for sustainabletourism, applied through capacity buildingand technical cooperation activities

WORLD CLIMATE NEWS • June 2005 No. 27 3

WMO/WTOcooperation onclimate andtourism

Many aspects of the tourismsector are vulnerable tovariability and change inweather and climateconditions, and NationalMeteorological andHydrological Services(NMHSs) around the worldprovide a growing body ofmeteorological products andservices to assist usersthroughout the sector,including travellersthemselves. In recognition ofthis interdisciplinarypartnership, and of thebenefits of WMO services tosuch an important part ofthe global economy, WMOand the World TourismOrganization (WTO) in 1992entered into a formalinteragency workingrelationship. Activitiesinclude publications such asthe 1998 joint contributionto the United NationsInternational Decade onNatural Disaster Reduction,the Handbook on NaturalDisaster Reduction in TouristAreas. WMO took part in theInternational Conference onClimate Change and Tourism(Djerba, Tunisia, April 2003)and in the 15th Session ofthe General Assembly ofWTO (Beijing, China,October 2003). On7 November 2003, WTObecame a specialized agencyof the United Nations, andWMO welcomed theopportunity to focusincreased attention on thedata, information andservices needed to supporttourism activities.

In November 2004, WTOheld a United Nations

continued on page 4 …

CLIMATE AND TOURISM

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

forecasts

696.7

1561.1

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800actual

International tourist arrivals, 1950-2020 (million a year)

This article is based on a contribution kindly provided by theWorld Tourism Organization–see www.world-tourism.org

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… continued from page 3

Coordination meeting onTourism Matters. Diverseorganizations, including ILO,FAO, UNESCO, ICAO, WHO,WMO, UNCTAD and UNEP,discussed the possibilities ofinter-agency collaboration tomaximize tourism’scontribution to theJohannesburg Plan of Actionand the MillenniumDevelopment Goals. Ofpartiuclar importance wassupport to WTO activities forsocio-economicdevelopment and povertyreduction throughsustainable tourism. Thissession recommended thecreation of a flexible networkmechanism within the UN tocarry out these activities.

The WMO Commission forClimatology, at its 14thsession (3-10 November2005, Beijing, China), willdiscuss establishment of anew Expert Team on climateand tourism, to furtherenhance the development ofknowledge and partnershipsat international, regional andnational levels.


(see www.world-tourism.org/sustainable). The transforma-tion of WTO into a SpecializedAgency of the United Nationsin 2003 further emphasizedthe importance of the tourismsector and the need for itssustainability.

Climate and weather haveboth a direct and an indirectimpact on tourism. Mostdirectly, tourists are attractedby climatic conditions such assunshine, warm temperaturesand little precipitation to beachdestinations, or cool tempera-tures and good snow condi-tions for winter sports. In thesun-and-sea tourism segment,climate is a key attraction for

tourists. Therefore, adverse conditions canimpact on the tourists’ experience and, inextreme situations, on their health andsafety. Changes to climatic conditionscould affect the flows of tourists, overallarrivals at destinations, or result in a sea-sonal shift of tourism activity. For example,in Europe, the conventional flow of north-ern tourists visiting the Mediterraneancoasts could be altered by excessive sum-mer temperatures, encouraging tourists totake vacations closer to their homes withmore favourable weather conditions.

Tourism is also a highly seasonal activ-ity and changes in demand patternscaused by altered climatic conditions canhave major impacts on local tourism busi-nesses, employment and supply, alsoaffecting related services and sectors (suchas agriculture, handicrafts and construc-tion). More tangible direct impacts can becaused by extreme weather and climateevents, such as cyclones and hurricanes, ontourism infrastructure and establishments,especially in vulnerable coastal areas.

Indirectly, climate change can have asignificant impact on tourism activities byaltering the natural environment, one oftourism’s most important resources. Forexample, changes in precipitation patternscan cause flooding or drought that canlead to desertification or water shortages;increased seawater temperatures can dam-age coral ecosystems; storm surges cancause shoreline erosion and saline intru-sions can affect coastal ecosystems; animalpopulations can be affected by environ-mental stress and changes in vegetation,habitat fragmentation and biological

invasions. Tourism is an active user of suchenvironmental resources as water, energy,food and biodiversity-rich and pristinenatural areas. Tourism in mountainregions can be affected by changing snowconditions, and destinations in flood- anddrought-prone areas are increasingly vul-nerable to environmental impacts. Climatechange can also alter health conditions,which can have an impact on day-to-daytourism activities, and the safety of bothtourists and local communities.

Recognizing the complex relationshipbetween climatic factors, climate changeand tourism, WTO convened the FirstInternational Conference on ClimateChange and Tourism (April 2003, Djerba,Tunisia) (see http://www.world-tourism.org/sustainable/climate/brochure.htm).The Conference brought together the scien-tific community and tourism professionalsfrom the public and private sectors, as wellas international and UN organizations,including WMO. The main outcome wasthe Djerba Declaration on Climate Changeand Tourism which provides a basic refer-ence and framework for further action. TheDeclaration recognizes the two-way rela-tionship between climate change andtourism: that tourism is both impacted byclimate change and contributes to thecauses of this phenomenon through green-house-gas emissions, resulting mainly fromenergy consumption in tourism trans-portation and establishments.

For tourism businesses, weather andclimate information and predictions ofextreme climatic events developed byNational Meteorological and HydrologicalServices are becoming increasingly impor-tant, given that the programming of manytourism activities is heavily climate-dependent, and that insurance practices intourism are greatly affected by natural haz-ards. Climate change will constitute anincreasing risk for tourism operations inmany destinations. Governments and theprivate sector must therefore give priorityto the application and management of cli-mate information, and incorporate climatefactors in tourism policies, developmentand management plans. For this, effectivecoordination between environmental andtourism organizations, particularlybetween WMO and WTO, is determinantfor further research, awareness raising,capacity building, as well as the develop-ment and application of adaptation andmitigation measures in the tourism sector.

Excessive temperatures may encouragetourists to holiday elsewhere.

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Weather andclimateinformation fortourists

About 7.5 per cent ofeconomic activity concernstourism, which inevitablyinvolves outdoor recreationalactivities and is thereforeinfluenced in some way byweather. Weather services forrecreation are designed toadd to the safety, economyand enjoyment of leisureactivities. Weather services inthis sector includeclimatological informationgiving a broad overview ofthe types of weather andrange of conditions generallyencountered–on themountains, near the coast orat sea. Other services includedaily variations in weather.Following the daily weatherforecasts—many speciallyprepared for recreationalactivity—is an essential partof preparation for outdoorrecreational activity.

Tourism in the mountains, onthe snowfield and on andnear the water requires

… continued on page 6

The year 2004 included some of the mostdestructive hurricanes and typhoons onrecord, claiming more than 6 000 lives.Disastrous floods and landslides due toheavy precipitation were also reportedworldwide. Prolonged drought continuedto affect parts of Africa, Australia, SouthAsia and the western USA. Conversely,natural climate variability produced bene-fits such as a significant boost to grain har-vests in Europe and to Middle East wintergrain crops.

The global mean surface temperaturewas 0.44°C above the 1961-1990 annualaverage (14°C). This places 2004 as thefourth warmest year since 1861. The fivewarmest years in decreasing order are:1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2001.

An exceptional heat wave affectedeastern Australia during February, whentemperatures soared to 45°C in manyareas. Much of the northern hemispherealso experienced warm conditions.

Precipitation in 2004 was above aver-age and 2004 was the wettest year since2000. Wetter-than-average conditions pre-vailed in the southern and eastern USA,Russian Federation, parts of western Asia,Bangladesh, Japan, coastal Brazil,Argentina and north-west Australia.

Heavy rains from mid-January toMarch in areas of Angola produced flood-ing along the river system which flows intoneighbouring Zambia, Botswana andNamibia. Extensive flooding along theZambezi River, the worst flooding since1958, threatened more than 20 000 people

in north-eastern Namibia and causedmuch damage to crops.

Extensive ozone depletion wasobserved over the Antarctic during thesouthern hemisphere winter/spring butthe October ozone hole was the smallestfor more than a decade.

During the Atlantic hurricane season,15 named tropical storms developed (theaverage is around 10). Six were “major”hurricanes. Hurricane Ivan was the mostpowerful storm to affect the Caribbean in10 years. Hurricane Charley was thestrongest and most destructive hurricaneto strike the USA since Andrew in 1992.Hurricane Jeanne caused more than 2 000deaths in Haiti.

Conversely, in the eastern NorthPacific, tropical cyclone activity was belowaverage. Only 12 named storms developedduring the year, of which six reached hur-ricane strength and three reached “major”status. None made landfall as a tropicalstorm or hurricane.

A hurricane reached the southern coastof Brazil on 28 March 2004, causing dam-age to property and some loss of life. In thenorth-west Pacific, 29 named storms devel-oped, of which 19 reached typhoon inten-sity. Typhoon Tokage was the deadliest toaffect Japan since 1979. Typhoon Rananim,the most severe typhoon affectingZhejiang, China, since 1956, claimed169 fatalities and caused much damage.The South-west Indian Ocean cyclone sea-son was also active with an above-normalnumber of tropical storms.

THE CLIMATE IN 2004

Southern and Eastern U.S.Wetter than average.9 landfalling tropicalsystems.

EuropeWidespreadabove averageannual temperatures (+1°C).

Hurricane FrancesCategory 2 at landfall.Extensive flooding in southern AppalachianMountains.

Hurricane JeanneCategory 3 at landfall.Over 3 000 liveslost in Haiti.

Atlantic hurricane season Above-average activity15 named storms; 9 hurricanes;6 ‘major’. 8 tropical storms inAugust—most named stormsfor any August on record.

Alaska/Yukon wildfiresRecord area burned (2.6 million hectares) in Alaska.

Neutral ENSO transitions into weak El Niño in late boreal summer and autumn.

AlaskaRecord warm May, June, July, August.

Somalia, KenyaDespite good “long rains” in Somalia, long-term drought remains. Only 50% of normal rainfall for south-eastern Kenya over last 2 years.

Tropical Cyclone Elita Affected Madagascar making two separate landfalls. 29 people killed, tens of thousands homeless.

Tropical Cyclone Gafilo Strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar in 10 years. Winds at 260 km/hr at landfall.

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent largest since 1985 for January; 5th lowest in 38 years for March.

Antarctic ozone hole less extensive than the 10-year mean. Less than 20 million km2 in size.

Hurricane IvanReached category 5 in theCaribbean. 210 km/hr at landfall. Massive destructionin Grenada as it passedover the island.

East Pacific hurricane seasonBelow average activity.12 named storms; 6 hurricanes. Indian monsoon rainfall

87% of normal overall. Maximum regional deficit in north-west India with 22% less than average.

Peru, Chile, ArgentinaSevere cold and snow during June and July.

Typhoon TokageDeadliest typhoon to strike Japan since 1979; 94 deaths. 10th cyclone to make landfall in Japan during 2004 season; produced a record 24-meter high wave.

Typhoons:

ChinaFlooding inSichuan Provincein September.196 people killed.

South-east ChinaDrought is one ofthe worst in 50 years.Drinking water supplies threatened.

AfghanistanLong-term droughtcontinued. DryMarch–April season.

IndiaSevere heatwavein March. More than100 deaths.

Western U.S.Continuation ofmulti-year droughtconditions, somerelief in autumn.

IndiaMonsoon-related floodiongJune–October. Millions of residentsdisplaced in Assam, Bihar andBangladesh. Worstflooding in 15 years.

TonadoesRecord year fortornadoes. Mostlya result of tropicalsystems.

Central andNorth-east U.S.Much colder-than-average summer.

CanadaRecord cold summer ineastern Prairies, record summerheat on west coast.

North America8th largest snow coverextent in 38 years for October.

Africa ITCZAverage annual ITCZclose to long-termmean position.

Western Asia, MongoliaAnnual warmth, anomalies 2–3°C.

Spain, PortugalHeatwave in Juneand July withmaximum temperaturesreaching 40°C.

Above-average activity in the West Pacific;29 named storms and 19 typhoons.

Record number of tropical cyclones (10, previous record 6) made landfall in Japan.

AustraliaIntense and widespread heatwave during February. Many city records broken. Long-term drought remains in southern and eastern Australia.

BrazilWet December–February. Major floodingin January in Brazil’snorth-eastern states.

Hurricane CharleyStrongest hurricane toimpact the U.S. sinceHurricane Andrew in 1992.

Tasmania2nd wettest January since 1900.

Tropical Cyclone HetaFirst cyclone to impact Samoa in a decade.

Strong winter storms in January for Pacific north-west.

Jordan, Syria, Greece, TurkeyWidespread winter storm in February. Approximately 60 cm of snow in Jordan.

South Atlantic hurricaneRare hurricane inthe South Atlanticin March. Made landfall in the state of SantaCatarina, Brazil.Maximum sustainedwinds of 120–130 km/hr.

Mexico/U.S.Severe flooding inApril along theEscondido River.

Angola, ZambiaSevere flooding in April.In Zambia, also in May.

Desertlocust invasionMay–October 2004.

Super Typhoon NidaCame ashore in the Philippines in May with sustained winds of 260 km/hr.

Typhoon RananimStrongest typhoon to affect Zhejiang Province in China since 1956. Over US$ 2 billion in damage and 169 deaths.

Super Typhoon ChabaSuper-typhoon (category 4) in the Pacific, category 1 at landfall inJapan in August; 13 deaths.

JapanWetter-than-average yearfor much of the country. Partly due to landfallingtropicalsystems.

AustraliaNorthern Territory, much wetter than average rainy season.

New ZealandHeavy rainfall and damaging floods in February.

Sea-iceBelow long-term average.September 13% below10-year mean.

PhilippinesTwo typhoons and one tropicalstorm claimed over 1 000 lives inthe Philippines in November.

denotes point of landfall.

Typhoon Ma-onStrongest typhoon to strike the greater Tokyo areain 10 years in October. Wettest October since 1876 for the city.

Significant climateanomalies andevents in 2004

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… continued from page 5

knowledge of local weatherconditions to interpret anduse the more generalforecasts. Tourists are a groupof consumers of climate andweather information whoshould be catered for bytaking into considerationtheir particular requirements,just like other major usergroups. While NationalMeteorological Services(NMSs) have large amountsof accurate data andinformation on climate andweather, they need toincrease awareness of threatsposed by high-impactweather, climate, hydro-logical hazards, storm surges,etc. and provide informationthat is easily accessible andunderstandable everywhere.

NMSs need to develop bettercommunication links to usersincluding the tourismindustry, to assure thatappropriate and effectiveresponses to hazardousenvironmental events aretriggered. But linkages aloneare not sufficient. NMSs’public weather serviceprogrammes have a vital rolein improving the use ofinformation through buildingcapacity among decision-makers and increasedcooperation betweenforecasters and users ofinformation. The long-termgoal of public weatherservices is to work withnational and internationaldecision-makers, includinggovernments, the privatesector and the media, toprevent extreme and high-impact weather eventsturning into disasters. For thetourism industry, this meansbetter use of reliableinformation to contribute tothe safety of the tourists andsustainable tourism anddevelopment.


The International Meeting to Review theImplementation of the Programme ofAction for the Sustainable Developmentof Small Island Developing States (SIDS)was held in Mauritius, 10–14 January2005. WMO was involved in the prepara-

tory process and participated in theMeeting.

The Meeting approved the MauritiusDeclaration and the Mauritius Strategy forthe further implementation of theProgramme of Action for the Sustainable

The highest growth rates of tourism arefound in coastal areas with naturally lowrainfall and maximum daily sunshinehours. This is true in most Mediterraneancountries but also in other destinationswith arid or semi-arid climates. This hasled to directcompetitionb e t w e e nw a t e rdemand fort r a d i t i o n a lp u r p o s e s ,such as agri-culture andw a t e rdemand forthe tourismindustry. Inthese areas,where waterscarcity islikely to beamplified asa result ofclimate variability and change, differentwater-resources management strategieshave to be adopted if the growing tourismindustry is to be maintained.

Water scarcity is aggravated by the factthat tourists and facilities linked to tourismhave significantly higher water consump-tion than the average domestic waterdemand. It has been estimated that aSpanish city-dweller uses some 250 litres aday, while the average tourist uses 440 litres.With an allowance for watering gardensand golf courses and filling swimmingpools, this can rise to some 880 litres perday for visitors in luxury accommodation.

The diagram above shows the effectsof seasonality on the resource base of oneCatalan Mediterranean resort, Lloret deMar, a town in north-east Spain covering47 km2 whose permanent population of

20 000 inhabitants increases to a peak of180 000 in the summer, as a result of the4 million tourists who visit each year.

In addition, network losses in thewater-distribution system amount to up to30 per cent and evaporation losses in open

reservoirs arealso substan-tial duringthe peakdemand inthe dry sea-son frommid-June tothe end ofAugust.

T h et o u r i s mindustry isbeginning tod e v e l o pa d a p t a t i o ns t r a t e g i e s ,including theuse of water-

saving technologies such as the installationof water-saving sanitary installations,reduced and improved efficiency of irri-gated greenlands and public gardens aswell as wastewater reuse and even theintroduction of closed water cycles inhotels and entire communities. Seawaterand brackish water desalination are pro-gressively being used in areas with hightourism occupancy rates and continuedgrowth where the high cost of using suchtechnologies is justified by the expectedincome from the tourism industry. If cli-mate change leads to a further aggravationof water scarcity, these technologies willhave to be increasingly used.

Note: although the source consulted (Costa Brava-GironaBoard of Tourism-INSETUR) indicates a maximum occupancyof approximately 100 000 persons, other sources havereported significantly higher occupancy rates for the monthof August, with peaks surpassing 180 000.

SIDS UPDATE

ADAPTING TO WATER SCARCITY IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

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0

Water consumption (m3/day)Solid urban waste (kg/month x 10)Occupancy (people/10)

Seasonal variation in water consumption, production of solidurban waste and occupancy in Lloret de Mar, Spain

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New report onozone and globalclimateThe WMO/UNEPIntergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) metin Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 6–8 April 2005, to finalizethe Special Report“Safeguarding the ozonelayer and the global climatesystem: issues related tohydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)and perfluorocarbons(PFCs)”.

The report describes bothscientific and technicalinformation regardingalternatives to ozone-depleting substances (ODSs)that may affect the globalclimate system. It addressesscientific linkages betweenstratospheric ozonedepletion and climatechange, and how the phase-out of ODSs is affectingclimate change. HFCs haveno ozone-depleting potentialbut are greenhouse gases.They are used asreplacements for ODSs inapplications such asrefrigeration and air-conditioning, foams, aerosoland solvents and fireprotection. The reportassesses options for reducingemissions of thesegreenhouse gases, explorestheir technical feasibility andcost and addressesenvironmental, safety andhealth considerations.

The report was requested bythe Parties to the UNFramework Convention onClimate Change and to theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone Layer. It was preparedby IPCC Working Groups1 and 3 in cooperation withthe Montreal Protocol’sTechnology and EconomicAssessment Panel (TEAP).

GCOS IMPLEMENTATION PLAN COMPLETED

Development of Small Island DevelopingStates (“Barbados POA”). The Declarationreaffirmed the Barbados POA as the blue-print for the implementation of theMauritius Strategy and called forenhanced international cooperation andpartnership, technology development andtransfer and capacity building. Itexpressed appreciation to the UN and itsspecialized agencies for their contribu-tions in support of SIDS.

The Mauritius Strategy addresses highpriority issues of concern to SIDS thatrelate to climate change and sea-level rise,natural and environmental disasters, man-agement of wastes, coastal and marine,freshwater, land, energy, tourism and bio-diversity resources, transport and com-munication, science and technology, grad-uation from least developed country sta-tus, trade globalization and liberalization,sustainable capacity development andeducation for sustainable development,sustainable production and consumption,national and regional enabling environ-ments, health, knowledge management

and information for decision-making, andculture.

In order to contribute to the imple-mentation of the Strategy in areas fallingunder the responsibility of WMO andthe NMHSs, an Action Plan will bedeveloped. The Plan will take intoaccount WMO’s Programmes and activi-ties and in particular the Programme onLDCs, the cross-cutting activities beingundertaken in relation to disaster mitiga-tion, climate, water, the Global EarthObservation System of Systems andother relevant regional and global initia-tives such as the MillenniumDevelopment Goals, the JohannesburgPlan of Implementation of the WorldSummit on Sustainable Developmentand the Hyogo Framework for Action:2005-2015 of the World Conference onDisaster Reduction (Japan, January2005). The Plan will also include thedevelopment of relevant partnershipswith UN organizations with regional andinternational organizations in areas ofconcern to NMHSs.

Under the leadership of the GlobalClimate Observing System (GCOS)and with input from the climate andrelated scientific communities, theImplementation Plan for the GlobalObserving System for Climate inSupport of the United NationsFramework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) has been com-pleted. The Plan addresses the require-ments identified in the Second Reporton the Adequacy of the GlobalObserving Systems for Climate inSupport of the UNFCCC and, in par-ticular, the need for Essential ClimateVariables and associated climate prod-ucts defined in the report. It takes intoconsideration existing global, regionaland national plans, programmes andinitiatives, including those of therecently established Group on EarthObservations, and implementation pri-orities and resource requirements, aswell as indicators for measuringprogress. Details are available at:www.wmo.int/web/ gcos.

The Plan calls for some 131 actionsover the next five to 10 years to addressthe critical issues related to the globalobserving system for climate, namely:

• Improving key satellite and in situ net-works for atmospheric, oceanic andterrestrial observations;

• Generating integrated global climateanalysis products;

• Enhancing the participation of least-developed countries and small islanddeveloping States;

• Improving access to high-qualityglobal data for Essential ClimateVariables; and

• Strengthening national and interna-tional infrastructure.

The UNFCCC Conference of theParties endorsed the Implementation Planat its 10th session (Buenos Aires,Argentina, 6–17 December 2004) througha formal decision which encouragesParties to strengthen their efforts toaddress the priorities identified. The deci-sion also welcomes the emphasis given toenhancing the participation of developingcountries in the global observing systemfor climate and invites GCOS to provideinformation to future sessions on how theactions identified in the Plan are beingimplemented. Ensuring implementationof the actions in the Plan will be a majorpriority for GCOS in the coming years.

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Climate andCryoshpere (CliC)Project

The Conference“Cryosphere, the ‘frozen’frontier of climate science:theory, observations, andpractical applications” washeld 11–15 April 2005 inBeijing, China, on thecampus of the hostorganization—the ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration. Sixteennational and internationalsponsors provided support tothe conference organizationand participants’ travel.

CliC, a World ClimateResearch Programme coreproject co-sponsored by theScientific Committee onAntarctic Research, studiesthe cryosphere as an integralpart of the climate system. Itsprincipal goal is to assess andquantify the impacts thatclimate variability andchange have on componentsof the cryosphere, and theconsequences of theseimpacts for the climatesystem. An additional goal isto determine the stability ofthe global cryosphere. Tosupport these goals, CliCseeks to enhance and co-ordinate efforts to monitor,model and understand thecryosphere and relevantprocesses, and to developcryospheric indicators ofglobal climate change.


Short-lived air pollutants can affecttourism by reducing visibility, corrodingmonuments and restricting outside activi-ties for a significant fraction of the popula-tion such as the elderly and asthmatics.These pollutants originate largely fromurban areas but their impacts can be feltfar away. For example, deposition of acidicand toxic constituents far from source

areas can have negative impacts on recre-ational fishing, and regional haze impairsthe views at national parks.

The GAW Urban Research Meteoro-logy and Environment (GURME) projectwas established by Thirteenth WorldMeteorological Congress (1999). Its goal isto enhance the capabilities of NationalMeteorological Services in providing

Fourteenth World MeteorologicalCongress in 2003 established THORPEXas part of the WMO World WeatherResearch Programme under the auspicesof the WMO Commission for Atmo-spheric Science.

THORPEX aims to accelerateimprovements in the accuracy of one-dayto two-week high impact weather forecastsfor the benefit of society, the economy andthe environment. THORPEX will play amajor role in helpingthe climate forecastcommunity tobridge the gapbetween weather andclimate forecasting, leading to betterunderstanding, improved forecast tech-niques, and more skilful forecasts for the10-60 day range between the weather andclimate time scales.

The THORPEX International SciencePlan (www.wmo.int/thorpex/mission.html) defines four main research topics:global-to-regional influences on the evolu-tion and predictability of weather systems;global observing system design anddemonstration; multi-model ensemblepredictions, targeting and assimilation of

observations; and social and economicbenefits of improved weather forecasts.

The THORPEX InternationalResearch Implementation Plan (Version 1,www.wmo.int/thorpex/implementation.html)for 2005-2014 defines a series of researchtasks within four interconnected subpro-grammes: predictability and dynamicprocesses; observing systems; data assimi-lation and observing strategies; and socialand economic applications.

THORPEX willconduct demonstra-tions of the socialand economic bene-fits of improved

forecasts through:• Use of new user-specific probabilistic

forecast products;• Introduction of interactive procedures

that make the forecast system moreresponsive to user needs; and

• Design of, and training in, the use ofuser-specific forecast products.Research will assess the social and eco-

nomic costs and benefits of THORPEXrecommendations for implementing inter-active forecast systems and improvementsin the global observing system.

GURME: IMPROVING AIR QUALITYSERVICES HELPS LOCALS AND TOURISTS

THORPEX

Photograph from the top ofthe 325-m tower of theInstitute of AtmosphericPhysics north of Beijing on16 February 2001.BECAPEX research on multi-scale urban air pollution isproviding newunderstanding of theprocesses contributing tothe “pollution dome” overBeijing.

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A major aim of theconference was to examineand develop ideas for futurecollaborative studies incryospheric and climateresearch, and to establishlinks between cryosphericresearch groups andinstitutions. Conferenceplenary sessions addressedthe main CliC Project Areas: • The terrestrial cryos-

phere and hydrometeo-rology of cold regions;

• Glaciers, ice caps and icesheets and their relationto sea level;

• High-latitude oceans andthe marine cryosphere;and

• Links between the cryo-sphere and globalclimate.

Specialized sessions wereheld on remote sensing, insitu observations, climatemodelling, data assimilationand small-scale modelling,impacts and their mitigation,the carbon cycle andpermafrost, partner projectsand activities during theInternational Polar Year2007-2008.

The Conference wasattended by approximately300 scientists and was alandmark event in thedevelopment of the globalstudies of cryosphere andclimate.


According to Dr Christopher Sabine, anoceanographer with the US NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration,the ocean has taken up approximately120 billion tonnes of carbon since 1800. Itsintroduction leads to production of car-bonic acid in the ocean’s upper layer. Thewarming increases stability of surface lay-ers, and it is expected that the resultantdecrease of the upper ocean water pH bythe year 2100 may be as much as 0.4 units.Over the next few centuries, surface oceanpH could decrease by as much as 0.7 units,which would be the lowest levels in at leastthe past 300 million years. This acidificationis likely to affect marine life and especiallycorals and hard-shelled organisms. The fullrange of consequences of this process is dif-ficult to project. CO2-induced ocean acidi-fication and related changes in seawater car-bonate chemistry can affect phytoplanktonphysiology, ecological interactions and bio-geochemical cycling. They may lead to a

reduction in biogenic calcification of theplankton, which in turn reduces the verticaltransport of calcium carbonate to the deepsea. The associated increase in the CO2storage capacity of the surface ocean com-prises a negative feedback to anthropogenicCO2 increase. At the same time, concernsregarding the bearing capacity of ocean andmarine life with respect to increased carboncontent cast a shadow on perspectives ofocean carbon sequestration.

In order to study the possible conse-quences of increased ocean carbon uptake,scientists associated with the SurfaceOcean–Lower Atmosphere Study(SOLAS) are conducting a series of labora-tory experiments in the University ofBergen Large Scale Mesocosm Facility (see

OCEANS IN A CARBON-RICH WORLD

air-quality services for a variety of pur-poses, including support of tourism. Pilotprojects demonstrate how agencies andorganizations can successfully expand theiractivities into pollution-related issues andprovide illustrative examples of best prac-tices and experiences. One example is theBeijing City Air Pollution Experiment(BECAPEX), which focuses on multi-scaleurban air pollution, with the goal of increas-ing knowledge of the laws controlling thetemporal and spatial distribution, diffusionand dilution of pollutants. The project takesa comprehensive approach, which combinesfield experiments and modelling activities.More than 50 researchers are participatingin this project, which has already produceda series of achievements that have importantimpacts for Beijing air quality. These resultsare providing important guidancefor meeting the green objectives of the 2008Olympics.

GURME is also working to improveforecasts of “chemical weather” such as 1-3 day outlooks of levels of dust, smoke andsmog. These forecasts are distributedwidely via newspapers, Websites and evenmobile telephone text messaging. Theinformation is used by public health agen-cies, transportation authorities, tourismand event planning groups, and privatecitizens. GURME conducts expert meet-ings to gather up-to-date information onnew methods for chemical weather fore-casting and to help identify future researchneeds to improve the forecasts. GURMEalso provides guidelines and training inchemical weather forecasting. The nexttraining workshop is planned in LatinAmerica later this year.

Further details can be found on the GURME web site:http://www.wmo.int/web/arep/gaw/urban.html

University of Bergen (Norway) Large ScaleMesocosm Facility (left) and view of anenclosure seen from above

Photos courtesy Ulf Riebesell

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WorldMeteorologicalDay

World Meteorological Day(WMD) was celebrated on23 March 2005. The themewas “Weather, climate, waterand sustainabledevelopment”, focusing onthe vital contribution ofNational Meteorological andHydrological Services(NMHSs) to sustainabledevelopment, environmentalprotection and povertyalleviation.

For WMD 2005, WMOpublished an information kit,including a message fromthe Secretary-General, abooklet and a poster and apress release was issued. Afilm entitled “Weather,climate, water andsustainable development”(16 minutes) and a videonews release (3 minutes)were produced by UNTV. AllWMD 2005 products areavailable in English, French,Spanish and Russian. Inaddition, the message of theSecretary-General and thefilm are available in Arabicand Chinese.

In his address at the WMDcelebration at WMOHeadquarters, Mr Jarraudrecalled the achievements ofWMO and elaborated on thechallenges ahead. Heexpressed the hope thatWMD 2005 would markincreased recognition of therole of NMHSs and greateruse of their products forsustainable development andgreater collaboration withvarious partners to effectivelyaddress environmental anddevelopmental challenges inthe areas of weather, climateand water.

Mr Supachai Panitchpakdi,Director-General of the


photos on page 9). The goal is toreproduce in reality the dominantprocesses which will occur in theocean in a carbon-rich world. Theresults reveal marked changes inseveral types of plankton (see pho-tos right) and demonstrate a needfor quantitative representation ofbiological feedbacks in climatemodels.

Source: http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/esthag-w/2004/nov/science/pt_warming.html

GOS: RECOMMENDATIONS TO 2015

Gephyrocapsa

Calcidiscus

Emiliania

Today’s world

High carbon world

Photos right show the effect ofchanges in ocean chemistry on

different types of plankton caused bya high carbon world.

Photos courtesy Ulf Riebesell

The WMO Commission for Basic Systemsat its 13th session (23 February–3 March2005) considered issues related toIntegrated Observing Systems. TheCommission noted the development of theImplementation Plan for Evolution ofSpace- and Surface-Based Sub-systems ofthe Global Observing System (GOS) whichcontained a number of specific actions andrecommendations needed over the next10 years to address the most essential issuesrelated to GOS performance.

Twenty recommendations address thespace-based subsystem of the GOS. Theybuild upon known plans of the opera-tional and research-and-developmentsatellite operators and call for rigorous cal-ibration of remotely sensed radiances, aswell as improved spatial, spectral, tempo-ral and radiometric accuracies. The wind-profiling and global precipitation-meas-urement missions were singled out fortheir importance to GOS. Implementationof most of these recommendations wouldbe realized through the WMO SpaceProgramme working with space agencies,via the Coordination Group forMeteorological Satellites.

Twenty-two recommendations addressthe surface-based subsystem of GOS. Theyinclude more complete and timely datadistribution; improved data coding;enhanced aircraft meteorological datareporting, especially over data-sparseareas; optimized rawindesonde distribution

and launches; improved upper-tropos-pheric and lower-stratospheric moisturemeasurements; operational use of targetedobservations; inclusion of ground-basedglobal positioning systems, radars andwind profilers; increased oceanic coveragethrough an expanded AutomatedShipboard Aerological Programme, drift-ing buoys and the Argo float programmeand development of some new observingtechnologies.

Five recommendations addressnumerical weather prediction interactionswith data from the evolving GOS, furtherstudy of observing system design andtraining issues.

The Commission agreed on the mech-anism of implementation of these recom-mendations and requested the Secretary-General to publish it and arrange for itscirculation, as guidance material toMembers, appropriate working bodies ofregional associations and technical com-missions.

The full text of deliberations of CBS-XIII in all official languages is posted at ftp://wmoftpreader:[email protected]/Documents/sessions/ or at ftp://ftp.wmo.int (UserName: wmoftpreader,Password: wmoftp)

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World Trade Organization(WTO), was invited toaddress the celebration asthe guest of honour.Mr Supachai emphasizedthat human progress,sustainable social-economicdevelopment, environmentalprotection and povertyalleviation are commonlyshared goals. He believedthat the main contributionthat WTO can make tosustainable development isthe successful completion ofthe Doha DevelopmentRound negotiation.

World Water Day wascelebrated on 22 March2005. Mr Jarraud issued astatement entitled “Waterfor life”.


The Secretariat of the intergovernmentalGroup on Earth Observations (GEO) isbeing hosted by WMO at its Headquartersin Geneva. A transitional secretariat willserve until the permanent Secretariat isestablished later this year.

The purpose of GEO is to oversee theimplementation of a 10-Year Implemen-tation Plan for a Global Earth ObservationSystem of Systems (GEOSS). The “system ofsystems” will integrate existing environ-mental observations made on land, in theatmosphere, in the oceans and from spacein such a way that the data will be readilyavailable and useful to decision-makersworldwide. The Plan will also identify gapsin various observing systems and finds waysto remove obstacles which inhibit integra-tion of data from those systems.

WMO hosted the first meeting ofGEO (GEO-I) on 3 and 4 May 2005.Some 200 representatives of nearly60 nations and the EuropeanCommission, as well as of over 40 interna-tional and intergovernmental organiza-tions attended.

GEO-I delegates elected a newExecutive Committee to oversee theadministrative workings of GEO. It willconsist of 12 Members representing devel-oping and developed countries in variousregions of the world: Brazil, China, theEuropean Commission, Germany,Honduras, Italy, Japan, Morocco, RussianFederation, South Africa, Thailand and theUSA, four of which are Co-chairs .

The benefits of GEOSS will range fromdisaster prevention, climate monitoringand environmental preservation toimproved socio-economic development.GEOSS will help all nations involved tomanage their information in a way thatbenefits the environment as well ashumanity.

WMO will be fully involved in theplanning and implementation of GEOSSand will encourage National Meteoro-logical and Hydrological Services to par-ticipate so that they may derive maximumbenefit.

The World Climate Programme (WCP)has continued to participate in and sup-port Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs).

In March 2005, WCP attended the 15thClimate Outlook Forum for the GreaterHorn of Africa (GHA) subregion inMombasa, Kenya. The Forum was organ-ized by the Intergovernmental Authority onDevelopment (IGAD) Climate Predictionand Applications Centre, Nairobi, in col-laboration with 10 GHA countries;Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya,Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, United Republicof Tanzania and Uganda. International col-laborating partners provided scientificadvice. The Forum discussed the current ElNiño event and its possible evolution,assessed global climate models’ diagnosticsand prepared rainfall outlooks for theregion (March–May 2005). A noticeablefactor was the increased participation ofend-users in the Forum.

WCP participated in the first sessionof the Forum on Regional ClimateMonitoring, Assessment and Prediction

for Asia (FOCRAII) in Beijing, China,7–9 April 2005. The Forum reviewed thelimitations and prospects of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasting method-ologies and systems and provided a platform to share experience and forecast-ing products from other global climateprediction centres. FOCRAII was organ-ized and co-sponsored by the ChinaMeteorological Administration in collab-oration with other national institutionsand organizations.

WCP supported the InternationalWorkshop on Climate Prediction andAgriculture–Advances and Challengesorganized by START (System for Analysis,Research and Training), WMO and IRI, atWMO Headquarters in Geneva,11–13 May 2005. The Workshop reviewedthe advances made during the past fiveyears in seasonal climate prediction and itsapplication to decision-making in agricul-ture, and identified the challenges to beaddressed in the next five to 10 years toenhance operational applications, espe-cially in developing countries.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS: AN UPDATE

GROUP ON EARTH OBSERVATIONS

Weather, climate, water andsustainable development(brochure for WMD2005)(WMO-No. 974). Issued inEnglish, French, Russian andSpanish. Electronic versions(pdf) available at:http://www.wmo.int/wmd/

To order this publication andthose featured overleaf, seepage 2. The electronic version of WorldClimate News is available underthe Catalogue of WMOPublications on the WMOhomepage at www.wmo.int.

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According to the expectations of theWorld Trade Organization and the WorldTourism Organization based on the resultsof the IPCC Third Assessment Report(2001), winter mountain tourism is likelyto diminish in the 21st century due to anumber of interrelated factors.

A study conducted by Dr R. Bürki andco-authors from the University of Zurichshows that the most important linkbetween climate change and mountaintourism is the reduction in snow amount.The study considers a ski resort to be

snow-reliable if, in seven out of 10 winters,the snow cover is at least 30-50 cm thickfor a period of at least 100 days between1 December and 15 April. The number ofsnow-reliable resorts in this century islikely to diminish. The most significantimpact would be on relatively low-lyingresorts, particularly in Europe. For exam-ple, if the line of snow-reliability rises to1 500 m, which is expected in 2030-2050,the number of snow-reliable ski resorts

in Switzerland would drop from 85 to63 per cent.

By 2030, 20-70 per cent of Swiss gla-ciers are expected to disappear, continuinga tendency which started at the end of the“Little Ice Age”. The loss of glaciers is notonly damaging to mountain aesthetics andwater management but is also a problemfor winter and summer skiing on glacierski slopes. Increased melting of mountainpermafrost would also make many moun-tain areas vulnerable to landslides andreduce the stability of cableways, lift masts

and other buildings built on soil withpermafrost.

Regional climate change studies fortwo locations in northern and easternSwitzerland (see figure) show that warmertemperatures are expected to co-exist withsomewhat increased winter precipitationand a significant reduction in the wintersnow cover duration.

Expected changes are being addressedby the alpine ski industry through devel-opments in artificial snow-making, and acomplex set of adaptive economical, envi-ronmental and educational measures.

THE CRYOSPHERE AND WINTER ALPINE TOURISM

New-look, new-format, full-colour WMO Bulletin. Issuedfour times a year in English,French, Russian and Spanishversions.

Recently issued

Studies for two Swiss ski resorts suggest howsnow reliability may change over the century.

Source: M. Beniston, F. Keller, B. Koffi and S. Goyette, 2003:Estimates of snow accumulation and volume in the SwissAlps under changing climatic conditions. Theoretical andApplied Climatology, 76, 125-140


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Saving paradise, ensuringsustainable development(WMO-No. 973), English andFrench. Electronic version(pdf) available at:http://www.wmo.int/sids/

We care for our climate(cartoon-style booklet forchildren) (WMO-No. 975),English, French and Spanish

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