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28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
https://nzzas.nzz.ch/hintergrund/wir-werden-bald-keine-festen-jobs-mehr-haben-ld.1351822 1/15
We will not have any permanent jobs soon
Safe salary, �xed working hours, paid holidays - that will soon
be over. Many of our children will not have a permanent job
anymore. The world of work is changing fundamentally. How
we can prepare for it.
by Anja Burri (text) and Elisa Forster (infographic) / 01/27/2018
Ade open-plan o�ce: The worker of the future is self-employed and workswherever she pleases. On the beach of San Francisco for example. (Image:Farhad J. Parsa / Getty Images)
Karin Frick has one of the most beautiful jobs in Zurich. High
up, on the hill of Rüschlikon on Lake Zurich, surrounded by a
large park, she explores our future. The economist is the top
trend researcher at the Gottlieb-Duttweiler-Institut, she is
employed, receives paid holidays, her retirement is regulated,
and when she is ill, she can stay in bed without �nancial
losses.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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Karin Frick - trend researcher at the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute. (Image:Christoph Ruckstuhl / NZZ)
This model, her life plan with all the beautiful securities, she
says, is soon outdated. "The way our labor market is
organized will not last." The likelihood that many of our
children will work very di�erently than we do is high. The
manpower of the future, says Frick, «is independent.»
What she describes is a change that we will not notice until it
is completed. The changes take place every day, in small steps.
As a futurist, Karin Frick works like a detective. She is looking
for clues to these changes. There are many of them, she says.
For example, there are people in their 50s who are struggling
to �nd new jobs in the labor market. "Many of them,
investment advisers, accountants or journalists, for example,
make themselves independent for want of alternatives."
On the other hand, the most successful companies of the
moment, such as Facebook, Amazon, or Google, have a small
workforce in terms of their size, and work with an army of
freelance specialists, such as app developers.
In the US, 55 million people are eitherfully or partially freelancers - 35 percent
of all workers.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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Where these companies come from, on the American West
Coast, the debate about self-employed workers is much
further. According to a study, around 55 million people in the
US are either fully or partially freelancers - that is 35 percent
of all employees, and the trend is rising.
In Europe, on average, 15 percent of employees are self-
employed, but these �gures do not include those who are only
partially self-employed. Here, too, the group of self-
employed grows. In France, for example, of the generation of
millennials, those born after 1980, already one in three works
at least partially as a freelancer. In crisis-ridden Greece, every
fourth person is self-employed.
A planet of freelancers
Venkatesh Rao - Consultant and author from Seattle (USA).
One person who thinks the upheavals in the labor market so
far as hardly anyone else is the blogger Venkatesh Rao from
Seattle. He has worked for seven years without a permanent
position. His resume is the remake of the American Dream.
Rao, a programmer from India, came to the US as a doctoral
student. Today he is a 43, consultant and author, writing for
renowned business newspapers such as Forbes Magazine. His
analyzes also inspire CEOs in Silicon Valley. In 20 years, he
says, it is no longer employee careers that are the norm, but
the careers of freelancers.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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Recently Rao published a sketch on his blog "Ribbonfarm". It
shows the universe. At the bottom left is the earth, the old
world of work, so to speak. It is the planet of addicts: On it live
people who are still employed by a company - because they
are very specialized.
On Earth, however, are also the losers of the new order, the
day laborers of the self-employed industry, Uber drivers, for
example. They are people who bear all the risks themselves,
work at dumping prices, but are completely dependent on a
brokerage platform or an employer and have to adopt their
rules. The third group that Rao places on Earth are the robots
that will take over part of our previous work in the future.
How technology could change our jobs: virtualtravel designer
It does not take more airplanes to travel to dream beaches.
The sea can also be seen with a virtual reality glasses and even
hear noise. Travel designers also create fantasy worlds that
are only traveled virtually.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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Around the earth, the old world of work, other planets make
their rounds - the planets of the self-employed. The closer
they are to the earth, the more dependent are the workers of
companies and clients. Roughly close to the ground, Rao's
model revolves around the "chained up freelancer". Although
they no longer have a boss, they must completely comply with
the wishes of the client.
The planets of the �rst "real" freelancers are just one more
orbit away: they have enough money, good relationships or
such a good reputation that they can also refuse orders.
Farthest away from Earth is the planet that Rao himself is
striving for: creative autonomy. These freelancers are so
�nancially independent that they can try new business ideas
at any time and thus fail.
Franz-Josef Schürmann - Head of Innovation Adecco Group.
In the middle of Zurich, in the noble Seefeld district, lies the
headquarters of the world's largest personnel service
provider, the Adecco Group. Here Franz-Josef Schürmann,
member of the executive board and head of innovation,
observes the developments of the worldwide labor market.
The times are very good, yes, exciting even. He also speaks of
the "megatrend of freelancers". Technological progress
makes it possible for private individuals to take on
assignments that previously required a professional
infrastructure.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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The 3-D printers are likely to accelerate this development
even further. For example, tools can be manufactured in the
future. In this way, agile small companies and working models
are emerging at a rapid pace, not only in the West, but in the
future also for countries such as India, the Philippines and
many African countries - huge markets with hundreds of
millions of young workers. Thanks to smartphones, most of
them today have access to education and information, says
Schürmann. They are all potential freelancers.
The Internet makes it possible to connect workers around the
world with potential clients. Financial specialists,
programmers, designers or translators: Many of them already
worked independently. The model is worthwhile today,
especially for knowledge-intensive professions. Schürmann is
convinced that the upheavals will a�ect more and more jobs,
including engineers, who today hardly work as freelancers.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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The Adecco Group wants to bene�t from these changes.
Because the self-employed are a new, lucrative customer
group. Especially those who are in Rao's Universe already a
little way away from Earth. A year ago, the group committed
two young Frenchmen to present their business idea: they
proposed working with Microsoft to launch an online
marketplace for highly quali�ed freelancers. At the moment
only for the French job market, but this year the site will start
in other countries.
High-tech caretaker
This janitor needs only a smartphone for his work. Repairs or
cleaning jobs are done by robots for him. And sensors report
when water is leaking or the ventilation is getting out.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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Yoss, that's the name of the platform, has been online since
November. Each week, 200 new workers make a pro�le, on
average, the orders that Yoss mediates, take about three
months. Freelancers and employers will only be admitted after
a review. Anyone who completes an order through Yoss is paid
directly by the platform, can claim social bene�ts and seek
advice - for example, about the possibilities of retirement
provision.
In the past, companies moved entire business units to Eastern
Europe or Asia. Today, they also have the opportunity to
outsource work to people around the world. "Crowdworking"
is the name of the system that allows companies to split their
projects into small jobs and to award them to freelancers via
the internet. Whether they are sitting in a living room in
Zurich or on a beach in Thailand, during the day or at night,
working in a suit or in pajamas, the clients do not care.
Until now, crowdworking was a niche in which helpers could
earn a sack money for simple tasks. For freelancers that are in
Rao's universe as day laborers on Earth. For highly quali�ed
this did not seem appropriate. Crowdworkers are now testing
software and mobile phones, designing packaging or
advertising campaigns, doing market research, writing
computer programs, and developing products - even for big
companies like Airbus, Coca-Cola, or organizations like
Greenpeace.
Connected researchers
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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Thanks to a chip in the brain, the scientist of tomorrow can
join in a so-called hive-mind. It is a network that connects the
thoughts of researchers and thus generates a broader
knowledge.
Such a Crowdworker is Ramona Herrmann. She gave the Swiss
Army knife a new face. Three monkeys can be seen, who cover
their mouths, ears and eyes. Victorinox launched the knife in
2016. It is already Herrmann's second design for the Swiss
company. The 42-year-old graphic designer works in a small
village near Karlsruhe. Their connection to Victorinox is only
the Internet, more precisely the crowdworking platform
Jovoto. In both tenders Herrmann prevailed against over 1000
competitors.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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In Switzerland, not only Victorinox designs design orders on
Jovoto, also candy manufacturer Ricola has been looking for a
new packaging design in this way. Even the SBB recently used
the site to generate ideas on how to make their stations more
enjoyable. Within a very short time, 50 proposals for furniture
systems and seating were received from 30 di�erent
countries. If the railway company had put out a classic ideas
competition, it would never have been that fast for so many
international proposals.
It has never been easier and cheaper forcompanies to get good manpower and
ideas from around the world.
It has never been easier and cheaper for companies to get good
manpower and ideas from around the world. You can respond
more quickly to orders thanks to the virtual reserve
community, with a huge, global talent pool at your disposal.
Crowdworkers do a lot of what ordinary employees do. Only -
and that's the whole point - they are not that: normally
employed. They can work, how and when they want to - they
are on their own with the Pension Fund, when they become
unemployed, they do not get any money, and they do not
automatically have accident insurance. In other words, clients
have no social obligations to them.
In many industrialized countries, a dispute has arisen over
this type of self-employed working for placement platforms.
Courts need to check that crowdworkers are not much more
clerks. The unions criticize Crowdworking platforms
promoted not freelance, but the bogus self-employment.
No political solutions
Politicians have to react, they have to rethink social networks,
say those who, like Venkatesh Rao or Karin Frick, expect a
change in our working world. It needs better solutions for the
retirement of self-employed, in the event that they become
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
https://nzzas.nzz.ch/hintergrund/wir-werden-bald-keine-festen-jobs-mehr-haben-ld.1351822 11/15
unemployed or ill. Ideas such as an unconditional basic
income for all are still far from being a majority. "Of course
there will be winners and losers," says Venkatesh Rao.
His model of dependent and independent self-employed is a
good grid to cope with changes in the labor market. Just
because someone works as a freelancer does not mean that he
is free. Anyone who has to be dictated by Internet platforms
dumping wages can not live well, at least in western
industrialized countries.
Tele-surgeon
This doctor operates over an Internet connection by
controlling robots, perhaps from another continent. At some
point, he may be operating his patients on another planet.
Measured by the o�cial �gures, not much is noticeable in
Germany about these upheavals on the job market. According
to the Federal Statistical O�ce, 12 per cent of workers in
Switzerland are self-employed - the rate has been fairly stable
for years. So is Switzerland a kind of island? No, says
economist Luc Zobrist. He examined how our jobs are
changing for the Deloitte consultancy. In Switzerland, the
freelancer has no de�nition for the entire profession, he says.
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
https://nzzas.nzz.ch/hintergrund/wir-werden-bald-keine-festen-jobs-mehr-haben-ld.1351822 12/15
Employees who incidentally completed orders for other
companies, were missing in the statistics. That does not mean
that they do not exist. Deloitte Switzerland has therefore
commissioned a representative survey. One in four people said
they had completed at least one job as a freelancer in the past
12 months. "Many people are just trying out what it would be
like to be independent," says Zobrist. This group will continue
to grow.
GM Astronaut
With gene therapy methods, the genetic material of
astronauts is changed so much that their bodies are less
susceptible. On cosmic radiation, for example, which can be
carcinogenic.
How can we prepare for such a future, how should we prepare
our children for it? The good thing, says Venkatesh Rao, is
that in the universe of the self-employed the cards would be
reshu�ed. Old certainties such as training at an elite
university lose value. He himself would never invest so much
time in a doctoral thesis. "Instead of studying for �ve years, I
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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would shorten my education and learn something new again
and again." Lifelong. The manpower of the future, says Rao,
"must constantly reinvent itself."
That also sounds exhausting. The good news is that more and
more schools are prepared for such demands. Project learning,
where students develop new knowledge for themselves, or
competence-based education, which focuses on the
application of knowledge, also aims to: enable children to be
able to think independently. More important than stubborn
memorization, Venkatesh Rao says, is curiosity and creativity.
Stephan Sigrist - founder of the Zurich think tank Wire.
Stephan Sigrist, 42, founded his own company because "he
did not �nd a place that suited his idea of how to deal with the
future". The think-tank Wire in Zurich has existed for ten
years now. The digital economy is one of her specialties. The
structural change of banks and insurance companies is in full
swing, says Sigrist. He distinguishes two types of self-
employed: In addition to entrepreneurs who realize their own
business idea, there will be more freelancers who outsource
their previous work. As self-employed, they carried out tasks
similar to those previously employed as permanent employees
in a company.
This already works for graphic designers or software
developers today. According to Sigrist, this "model will spread
and lead banks, insurance companies or consulting companies
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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to set clear tasks for freelancers". From the company's point
of view, this reduces costs and increases �exibility. Sigrist's
prognosis is less radical than Venkatesh Rao's: this model also
has its limits, he says.
Nano-Koch
With the help of nanoparticles dishes can be re�ned. For
example, fries are made that contain less fat and salt, but taste
just as good as the unhealthy models.
"Employees who contribute to the uniqueness of a product
with their expertise do not want to share it with competitors
in the job market." Con�dence, identi�cation, and loyalty to a
business played a key role in many industries. "That's why
we'll see even longer models in which employees commit
themselves to companies in the long term."
Quite exhausting
Ramona Herrmann, the designer of Sackmesser, has opted for
the other way. She set up her own business after her three-
year parental leave and founded her agency Denkdi�erent. She
could not live on the money she earns on the crowdfunding
28/01/2018 We will not have permanent jobs soon | NZZ on Sunday
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platform Jovoto, it's an additional source of income for her.
Jovoto o�ers her the chance to work for global brands. The
two Victorinox bag knives have brought her a total of 4,500
euros.
Over the last �ve years she has applied for 104 projects and
uploaded a total of 285 ideas and designs to Jovoto. In the end
she was �nancially rewarded for 35 of her submissions. The
independent Art Director lives primarily from direct jobs,
which she receives in the analogue world through her own
company. Sometimes her everyday life is exhausting, she says.
"But this model is my best chance to reconcile work and
family." The �exible working hours allowed her to spend as
much time as possible with her child.
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