8/6/2019 We Are Waiting for a Disastrous Earthquake in Northern Areas of Pakistan

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We are waiting for a disastrous earthquake in northern areas of Pakistan

After the earthquake of October 8, 2005, most of the people are thinking aboutmotion of tectonic plates, release of sub surface energy, divergence andconvergence of plate boundaries and many other criterions, which cause thehappening of an earthquake.

While we are discussing any earthquake of the world, there arise many questionsregarding it. But two things are of much importance in the happening of earthquake, which gives us an idea about the amount of energy, accumulatedinside the earth. They are Pre shocks and After shocks.

Energy is produced due to the presence of radioactive elements in the crustal andmantle region of the earth. As these radioactive elements try to stabilizethemselves, a chain reaction series is produced with the release of energy inaddition, which causes melting of lithosphere, disturbing the internal conditions of earth.

As this energy fills the chambers of earth, it tries to move up towards the earthsurface through weaker zones, producing or activating an existing fault. When thisenergy rushes towards the earth surface in a smaller amount, it causes the suddenvibration of earth. As more and more energy is released, it widens the weaker zone.So a maximum amount of energy follows this smaller release and causes a majorearthquake. After the occurrence of this major quake, the remaining energy againslowly starts to release out to re-stabilize the position of tectonic plates.

Following is given the diagrammatic conditions of energy release.

8/6/2019 We Are Waiting for a Disastrous Earthquake in Northern Areas of Pakistan

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So when this remaining energy release out, it again causes the minor shacking of the earth.

Pre-shocks are considered as more effective criteria for the prediction of a majorupcoming earthquake.

As the intensity of pre-shock increases by an average amount in the same area, sowe can conclude that a major earthquake is following these shocks.

Now as we are looking at the past few months, it is observed that there occurredfive to six minor earthquakes till now in the northern areas of Pakistan includingKohistan, Chitral, Mansehra, Balakot, Azad Kashmir, Kaghan as well as along Pak-Afghan boundary in Hindukush range.

When we study the tectonic map of Pakistan, this is the area with high tectonicrelief. As two major tectonic plates (Indian and Eurasian) collides in this zone, Majorfaults like Main boundary thrust (MBT), their splays, Hazara-Kashmir syntexis andmany other tectonic features covers this large area in the form of an arc, rangingfrom south-west of Pakistan (approaching the Chaman strike slip fault) to north-eastern zone of the country.

As all the recent minor earthquakes were happened in this area in the range of 4.0to 6.0 magnitudes. So it gives a clue that there is possibility of a major earthquakeevent happening within some years (not exactly predictable) in the northern areasof Pakistan.

8/6/2019 We Are Waiting for a Disastrous Earthquake in Northern Areas of Pakistan

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