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WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 1 - Exploring Data
Day Topics Objectives Homework
1
Hyena Lab Chap 1 Introduction
Identify the individuals and variables in a set of data
Classify variables as categorical or quantitative
Read pp 1-8 1, 3, 5, 7, 8
2
1.1 Bar graphs, pie charts, good & bad graphs; two-way tables, marginal distributions, relationships between categorical variables, conditional distributions, organizing a statistical problem
Make a bar graph of the distribution of a categorical variable
Recognize when a pie chart can and cannot be used
Identify what makes some graphs deceptive
From a two-way table, answer questions involving marginal and conditional distributions
Describe the relationship between two categorical variables by computing appropriate conditional distributions
Construct bar graphs to display the relationship between two categorical variables
Read pp 8-26 11-25 odd, 27-32
3
1.2 Dotplots, describing shape, comparing distributions, stemplots, histograms, using histograms wisely
Make a dotplot or stemplot
Describe the overall pattern (shape, center, spread) of a distribution and identify major departures from the pattern (like outliers)
Identify the shape of a distribution from a dotplot, stemplot, or histogram as roughly symmetric or skewed, identify the number of modes
Interpret histograms
Read pp 27-41 37-45 odd,49, 52, 54, 59, 69-74
4
1.3 Measuring center: mean & median, comparing mean & median; Measuring spread: IQR; identifying outliers; 5-number summary and boxplots; measuring spread: standard deviation, choosing measures of center and spread
Calculate and interpret measures of center (mean & median)
Calculate and interpret measures of spread (IQR)
Identify outliers (1.5 x IQR Rule)
Make a boxplot
Calculate & interpret measures of spread (standard deviation)
Select appropriate measures of center and spread
Use appropriate graphs and numerical summaries to compare distributions of quantitative variables
Read pp 50-69 79-91 odd, 103, 105, 107-110
5.1
Chapter Review Read NTA pp 11-17 Special Problem 1; Portfolio 1.1, 1.2
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 2 - Modeling Distributions of Data
Day Topics Objectives Homework
5.2
2.1A Intro, measuring position: percentiles, cumulative relative frequency graphs, measuring position: z-scores
Use percentiles to locate individual values within distribution of data
Read pp 84-91 5-15 odd
6
2.1B Transforming data, density curves 2.2A Normal Distributions, 68-95-99.7 Rule, Standard Normal distribution
Describe the effect of adding, subtracting, multiplying by, or dividing by a constant on the shape, center, and spread of a distribution of data
Approximately locate the median (equal areas point) and the mean (balance point) on a density curve
Use the 68-95-99.7 rule to estimate the percent of observations from a Normal distribution that fall in an interval involving points 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations on either side of the mean
Use the standard Normal distribution to calculate the proportion of values in a specified interval
Use the standard Normal distribution to determine a z-score from a percentile
Read pp 92-104 19, 21, 23, 27, 33-38 Read pp 110-119 41-51 odd
7
2.2B Normal distribution calculations; assessing normality
Use Table A to find the percentile of a value from any Normal distribution and the value that corresponds to a given percentile
Use a graphing calculator to do the same
Make an appropriate graph to determine if a distribution is bell-shaped
Read 119-130 53-59 odd, 63a,b, 68-74
8
Chapter Review Read NTA pp 19-25 Portfolio 2.1-2.5
9
Chapter 1/2 Exam Special Problem 2
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 3 – Describing Relationships
Day Topics Objectives Homework
10
3.1 Intro; explanatory & response variables; displaying relationships: scatterplots; interpreting scatter plots; measuring linear association: correlation; facts about correlation
Describe why it is important to investigate relationships between variables
Identify explanatory and response variables in situations where one variable helps to explain or influences the other
Make a scatterplot to display the relationship between two quantitative variables
Describe the direction, form, and strength of the overall pattern of a scatterplot
Know the basic properties of correlation
Calculate and interpret correlation
Explain how the correlation r is influenced by extreme observations
Read pp 142-156 1, 5, 7, 11, 13, 14-18, 21, 26
11
3.2A Least-squares regression; interpreting regression line; prediction; residuals; calculating the equation of the least-squares regression line
Interpret the slope and y-intercept of a least-squares regression line
Use the least-squares regression line to predict a y for a given x
Explain the dangers of extrapolation
Calculate and interpret residuals
Explain the concept of least squares
Use technology to find a least-squares regression line
Find the slope and intercept of the least-squares regression line from the means and standard deviations of x and y and their correlation
Read pp 164-174 27-32, 35-47 odd, 53
12
3.2B How well the line fits the data: residual plots; how well the line fits the data: the role of r2 in regression; interpreting computer output; correlation and regression wisdom
Construct and interpret residual plots to assess if a linear model is appropriate
Use the standard deviation of the residuals to assess how well the line fits the data
Use r2 to assess how well the line fits the data
Identify the equation of a least-squares regression line from computer output; Explain why association does not imply causation
Recognize how the slope, y intercept, standard deviation of the residuals, and r2 are influenced by extreme observations
Read 174-190 55-59 odd, 63, 65, 69, 71-78
13.1
Chapter Review Read NTA pp 27-33 Special Problem 3; Portfolio 3.1-3.6
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 4 – Designing Studies
Day Topics Objectives Homework
14
4.1A Intro; Sampling and surveys; how to sample badly, how to sample well; random samples; other sampling methods
Identify the population and sample in a sample survey
Identify voluntary response samples and convenience samples; explain how these bad sampling methods can lead to bias
Describe how to use Table D to select a simple random sample (SRS)
Distinguish a simple random sample from a stratified or cluster sample; give advantages and disadvantages of each sampling method
Read pp 205-219 1-11 odd, 17-25 odd,
15
4.1B Inference for sampling; sample surveys: what can go wrong? 4.2A Observational studies vs. experiments; the language of experiments; how to experiment badly
Explain how undercoverage, nonresponse, and question wording can lead to bias in a sample survey
Distinguish between an observational study and an experiment
Explain how a lurking variable in an observational study can lead to confounding
Identify the experimental units or subjects, explanatory variables (factors), treatments, and response variables in an experiment
Read pp 220-225 27, 28, 29-35 odd Read pp 231-236 37-42, 45-53 odd
16
4.2 B How to experiment well; three principles of experimental design; experiments: what can go wrong; inference for experiments
Describe a completely randomized design for an experiment
Explain why random assignment is an important design principle
Describe how to avoid the placebo effect in an experiment
Explain the meaning and the purpose of blinding in an experiment
Explain in context what “statistically significant” means
Read pp 236-246 57, 63-75 odd
17
4.2C Blocking; matched pairs design
Distinguish between a completely randomized design and a randomized block design
Know when a matched pairs experimental design is appropriate and how to implement such a design
Read pp 246- 252 77, 79, 81, 85
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 4 – Designing Studies (cont)
Day Topics Objectives Homework
18
4.3 Scope of inference; the challenges of establishing causation Class experiments
Determine the scope of inference for a statistical study
Read pp 261-265 91-98, 103, 105, 107, 108
19
Chapter Review Read NTA 35-41 Portfolio 4.1-4.7
20
Chapter 3/4 Exam Special Problem 4
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 5 – Probability
Day Topics Objectives Homework
21
5.1 Intro; the idea of probability; myths about randomness; simulation
Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency
Use simulation to model chance behavior
Read pp 282- 293 1, 3, 7, 9, 11, 15, 17, 23, 25, 37, 38
22
5.2 Probability models; basic rules of probability; two-way tables and probability; Venn diagrams and probability
Describe a probability model for a chance process
Use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for mutually exclusive events
Use a Venn diagram to model a chance process involving two events
Use the general addition rule to calculate P(A|B)
Read 299-308 27, 29, 31, 32-36, 43-55 odd
23
5.3 What is conditional probability?; conditional probability and independence; tree diagrams and the general multiplication rule; independence: a special multiplication rule; calculating conditional probabilities
When appropriate, use a tree diagram to describe chance behavior
Use the general multiplication rule to solve probability questions
Determine whether two events are independent
Find the probability that an event occurs using a two-way table
When appropriate, use the multiplication rule for independent events to compute probabilities
Compute conditional probabilities
Read pp 312-328 57-60, 63-69 odd, 73, 77, 83, 85, 87, 91-99 odd
24
Chapter Review Read NTA pp 43-45 Special Problem 5 Portfolio 5.1-5.8
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 6 – Random Variables
Day Topics Objectives Homework
25
6.1 Intro; discrete random variables; mean (expected value) of a discrete random variable; standard deviation (and variance) of a discrete random variable; continuous random variables
Use a probability distribution to answer questions about possible values of a random variable
Calculate the mean of a discrete random variable
Interpret the mean of a random variable
Calculate the standard deviation of a discrete random variable
Interpret the standard deviation of a random variable
Read pp 340-352 1, 5, 7, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, 23, 25
26
6.2 Linear transformations; combining random variables; combining Normal random variables
Describe the effects of transforming a random variable by adding or subtracting a constant and multiplying or dividing by a constant
Find the mean and standard deviation of the sum or difference of independent random variables
Determine whether two random variables are independent
Find the probabilities involving the sum or difference of independent Normal random variables
Read pp 358-377 27-30, 37, 39-41, 43, 45, 49, 51, 57-59, 63
27
6.3 Binomial settings and binomial random variables; binomial probabilities; mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution; binomial distributions in statistical sampling; geometric random variables
Determine whether the conditions for binomial random variable are met
Compute and interpret probabilities involving binomial distributions
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of a binomial random variable; interpret the results in context
Find probabilities involving geometric random variables
Read pp 382-403 61, 65, 66, 69-89 odd, 101, 103
28
Chapter Review Read NTA pp 47-53 Portfolio 6.1-6.13
29
Chapter 5/6 Exam Special Problem 6
30
Cumulative Review
31
6-Week Exam
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 7 – Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem
Day Topics Objectives Homework
32
7.1 Intro; German tank problem; parameters and statistics; sampling variability; describing sampling distributions
Distinguish between a parameter and a statistic
Understand the definition of a sampling distribution
Determine whether a statistic is an unbiased estimator of a population parameter
Understand the relationship between sample size and the variability of an estimator
Read Sec 7.1 1-13 odd, 17-20
33
7.2 The sampling distribution of �̂�; using the Normal approximation for �̂�
Find the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of a sample proportion �̂� for an SRS of size n from a population having p successes
Check whether the 10% and Normal conditions are met in a given setting
Use Normal approximation to calculate probabilities involving �̂�
Use the sampling distribution to evaluate a claim about a population proportion
Read Sec 7.2 21-24, 27, 29, 33, 35, 37, 41
34
7.3 The sampling distribution of �̅�; mean and standard deviation; sampling from a Normal distribution; the Central Limit Theorem
Find the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of a sample mean �̅� from an SRS of size n
Calculate probabilities involving a sample mean �̅� when the population is Normal
Explain how the shape of the sampling distribution of �̅� is related to the shape of the population distribution
Use the CLT to help find probabilities involving a sample mean �̅�
Read Sec 7.3 43-46, 49-65 odd, 66-68
35
Chapter Review
Read NTA pp 55-58 Special Problem 7 Portfolio 7.1-7.9
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 8 – Estimating with Confidence
Day Topics Objectives Homework
36
8.1 The idea of a confidence interval; interpreting confidence levels and confidence intervals; constructing a confidence interval; using confidence intervals wisely
Interpret a confidence level
Interpret a confidence interval in context
Understand that a confidence interval gives a range of plausible values for a parameter
Understand why each of the three inference conditions – Random, Normal, and Independent – is important
Explain how practical issues like nonresponse, undercoverage, and response bias can affect the interpretation of a confidence interval
Read Sec 8.1 5-13 odd, 17, 19-24
37
8.2 Conditions for estimating p; constructing a confidence interval for p; putting it all together: the 4-step process; choosing the sample size
Construct and interpret a confidence interval for a population proportion
Determine critical values for calculating a confidence interval using a table or your calculator
Carry out the steps in constructing a confidence interval for a population proportion; check conditions; perform calculations; interpret results in context
Determine the sample size required to obtain a level C confidence interval for a population with a specified margin of error
Understand how the margin of error of a confidence interval changes with the sample size and level of confidence C
Understand why each of the three inference conditions – Random, Normal, and Independent – is important
Read Sec 8.2 27, 31-37 odd, 41, 43, 47
38
8.3 The one sample z-interval for a population mean; the t-distributions; constructing a confidence interval for
; using t procedures wisely
Construct and interpret a confidence interval for a population mean
Determine the sample size required to obtain a level C confidence interval for a population mean with a specified margin of error
Carry out the steps in constructing a confidence interval for a population mean; check conditions; perform calculations; interpret results in context
Understand why each of the three inference conditions – Random, Normal, and Independent – is important
Read Sec 8.3 49-52, 55, 57, 59, 63, 65, 67, 71, 73, 75-78
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Day Topics Objectives Homework
39
Chapter Review
Determine sample statistics from a confidence interval
Read NTA pp 559-564 Portfolio 8.1-8.8
40 Chapter 7/8 Exam Special Problem 8
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 9 – Testing a Claim
Day Topics Objectives Homework
41
9.1 The reasoning of significance tests; stating hypotheses; interpreting p-values; statistical significance
State correct hypotheses for a significance test about a population proportion or mean
Interpret p-values in context
Read pp. 529-535; problems 2, 12, 4, 14
42 9.1 Type I and Type II errors; the power of a statistical test
Interpret a Type I error and a Type II error in context and give the consequences of each
Understand the relationship between the significance level of a test, P(Type II error) and power
Read pp. 538-545; problems 15, 19, 21, 23, 25, 31, 32
43
9.2 Carrying out a significance test; the one sample z-test for a proportion; two-sided tests; why confidence intervals give more information
Check conditions for carrying out a test about a population proportion
If conditions are met, conduct a significance test about a population proportion
Use a confidence interval to draw a conclusion about a population proportion
Read Sec 9.2; problems 27-30, 41, 43, 45, 49, 51, 53, 55
44
9.3 Carrying out a
significance test for ; the one-sample t test; two-side tests and confidence intervals; inference for means: paired data; using tests wisely
Check conditions for carrying out a test about a population mean
If conditions are met, conduct a significance test about a population mean
Use a confidence interval to draw a conclusion about a population mean
Recognize paired data and use one- sample t procedures to perform significance tests for such data
Read Sec 9.3 57-60, 71-77 odd, 89, 94-97, 99-104
45
Chapter Review Read NTA pp 65-69 Special Problem 9 Portfolio 9.1-9.8
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 10 – Comparing Two Populations or Groups
Day Topics Objectives Homework
46
10.1A Is yawning contagious? The sampling distribution of a difference between two proportions; confidence intervals for p1-p2
Describe the characteristics of the sampling distribution of �̂�1 − �̂�2
Calculate probabilities using the sampling distribution of �̂�1 − �̂�2
Determine whether the conditions for performing inference are met
Construct and interpret a confidence interval to compare two proportions
Read pp 601-611 13, 15, 17, 19, 22, 29-34
47
10.1B Significance tests for p1-p2; inference for experiments 10.2A Does polyester decay? The sampling distribution of a difference of two means
Perform a significance test to compare two proportions
Interpret the results of inference procedures in a randomized experiment
Describe the characteristics of the sampling distribution of �̅�1 − �̅�2
Calculate probabilities using the sampling distribution of �̅�1 − �̅�2
Read pp 611-621 15, 17, 21, 23 Read pp 627-632 29-32, 35, 37, 57
48
10.2 B The two-sample t statistic; confidence
intervals for 1-2; significance tests for
1-2; using two-sample t tests wisely
Determine whether the conditions for performing inference are met
Use two-sample t procedures to compare two means based on summary statistics
Use two-sample t procedures to compare two means from raw data
Interpret standard computer output for two-sample t procedures
Perform a significance test to compare two means
Check conditions for using two-sample t procedures in a randomized experiment
Interpret the results of inference procedures in a randomized experiment
Read pp 633-651 39-45 odd, 51, 53, 59, 65, 67, 70
49
Chapter Review Determine the proper inference procedure to use in a given setting
Read NTA 71-75 Portfolio 10.1-10.6
50
Chapter 9/10 Exam Special Problem 10
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 11 – Inferences for Distributions of Categorical Data
Day Topics Objectives Homework
51
11.1 The Candy Man. Comparing observed and expected counts; the chi-square statistic; the chi-square distributions and p-values; the chi-square goodness of fit test; follow up analysis
Know how to compute expected counts, conditional distributions, and contributions to the chi-square statistic
Check the Random, Large sample size, and Independent conditions before performing a chi-square test
Use a chi-square goodness of fit test to determine whether sample data are consistent with a specified distribution of a categorical variable
Examine individual components of the chi-square statistic as part of a follow-up analysis
Read Sec 11.1 1-11 odd, 17
52
11.2A Comparing distributions of a categorical variable; expected counts and the chi-square statistic; the chi-square test for homogeneity; follow up analysis; comparing several proportions
Check the Random, Large sample size, and Independent conditions before performing a chi-square test
Use a chi-square test for homogeneity to determine whether the distribution of a categorical variable differs for several populations or treatments
Interpret computer output for a chi-square test based on a two-way table
Examine individual components of the chi-square statistic as part of a follow-up analysis
Show that the two-sample z test for comparing two proportions and the chi-square test for a 2 by 2 two-way table give equivalent results
Read pp 696-713 19-22, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 43
53
11.2B The chi-square test of association/ Independence; using chi-square tests wisely
Check the Random, Large sample size, and Independent conditions before performing a chi-square test
Use a chi-square test of association/ Independence to determine whether there is convincing evidence of an association between two categorical variables
Interpret computer output for a chi-square test based on a two-way table
Examine individual component of the chi-square statistic as part of a follow-up analysis
Read pp 713- 723 45, 49, 51, 53-58
54
Chapter Review Distinguish between the three types of chi-square tests
Read NTA pp 77-81 Special Problem 11; Portfolio 11.1-11.7
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Chapter 12 – More About Regression
Day Topics Objectives Homework
55
12.1 Helicopter Experiment; The sampling distribution of b, conditions for regression inference; estimating parameters; constructing a confidence interval for the slope; performing a significance test for the slope
Check conditions for performing inference
about the slope of the population (true) regression line
Interpret computer output from a least squares regression analysis
Construct and interpret a confidence interval
for the slope of the population (true) regression line
Perform a significance test about the slope of a population (true) regression line
Read Sec 12.1 1-19 odd
56
12.2 Transforming with powers and roots; transforming with logarithms
Use transformations involving powers and roots to achieve linearity for a relationship between two variables
Use transformations involving logarithms to achieve linearity for a relationship between two variables
Make predictions from a least-squares regression line involving transformed data
Determine which of several transformations does a better job of producing a linear relationship
Read Sec 12.2 21-26, 33-41 odd, 45-48
57
Chapter Review
Read NTA pp 83-88 Portfolio 12.1-12.7
58
Chapter 11/12 Exam Special Problem 12
WCHS AP Statistics Pacing Guide (S-2015)
1/12/15
Exam Review
Day Topics Homework
59
Review See Review Handout
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Review See Review Handout
4/18-4/26
Easter Break
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69 Review
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70 Review
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71 Review
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72 Review
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73 Review See Review Handout
74 Wed 5/13
AP EXAM