WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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Transcript of WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wc47-2009-mckinsey-report-charting-our-water-future-a-useful-planning-tool 1/20
c nsey epor :c nsey epor :Charting Our Water Future:Charting Our Water Future:
A Useful P lannin Tool? A Useful P lannin Tool?
Special Senior Advisor (Infrastructure and Water) Office of the President
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wc47-2009-mckinsey-report-charting-our-water-future-a-useful-planning-tool 2/20
Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible, reliablesupply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming no efficiency
6,900
900-40%CAGR
2%
Billion m3, 154 basins/regions
Municipal&
Domestic4,500
1,500
600
2,800
1004,200
Groundwater700
Agriculture
n ustry
Surface water3,100
4,500
3,500
Relevant supply quantity ismuch lower that the
absolute renewable water
availability in nature
Basins with
surplus
Basins with
deficits
Existing
accessible,Existing
withdrawals 2
2030
withdrawals 3
re a e,sustainable supply 11 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure
investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI
3 Based on GDP o ulation ro ections and a ricultural roductions from IFPRI considers no water roductivit ains
between 2005‐2030
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wc47-2009-mckinsey-report-charting-our-water-future-a-useful-planning-tool 3/20
Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible,reliable supply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming no
6,900
900-
2%
Billion m3, 154 basins/regions
Agriculture
Municipal&Domestic
4,5001,500
600
2,800
1004,200
Groundwater700
demand:India 1,195 B m3
Sub‐Saharan Africa 820 B m3
Agriculture
Industry
Surface water3,100
4,500
3,500
800Relevant supply quantity is
much lower that theabsolute renewable water
availability in nature
China 420 B m3
Basins withBasins with ExistingExisting2
20303 ,
reliable,sustainable supply 1
1 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure
investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI
3 Based on GDP o ulation ro ections and a ricultural roductions from IFPRI considers no water roductivit aiins
between 2005‐2030
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wc47-2009-mckinsey-report-charting-our-water-future-a-useful-planning-tool 4/20
Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible,reliable supply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming
6,900
900-40%CAGR
2%
Billion m3, 154 basins/regions
Municipal&
Domestic4,500
1,500
600
2,800
1004,200
Groundwater700
AgricultureSurface water
3,100
4,500
3,500
Relevant supply quantity ismuc h lower that the
absolute renewable waterava ilability in na ture
Basins with
surplus
Basins with
deficits
Existing
accessible,
reliable,
Existing
withdrawals 2
2030
withdrawals 3
sustainable supply 1
1 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure
investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI
3 Based on GDP o ulation ro ections and a ricultural roductions from IFPRI considers no water roductivit aiins
between 2005‐2030
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wc47-2009-mckinsey-report-charting-our-water-future-a-useful-planning-tool 5/20
Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible, reliablesupply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming no efficiency
6,900
9 00-40%CAGR
2%
Billion m3, 154 basins/regions
Municipal&Domestic
4,500
800
1,500
600
2,800
1004,200
Groundwater700
Agriculture
Surface water
3,100
4,500
3,500
Relevant supply qua ntity ismuch low er that the
absolute renewable waterava ilability in na ture
Basins withsurplus
Basins withdeficits
Existingaccessible,
reliable,
Existingwithdrawals 2
2030withdrawals 3
susta na e supply 1
1 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure
investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI
3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gaiins
between 2005‐2030
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wc47-2009-mckinsey-report-charting-our-water-future-a-useful-planning-tool 6/20
How do we close the supply-eman gap
water sector will provide solutions that are environmentallysustainable and economically viable.
The annual rate of efficiency improvement
in agriculture
and
industry =1%
Given this rate, improvements in agriculture and industry will
only address
20%
of
the
supply
‐demand
gap
by
2030.
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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Business-as-usual approaches w illno mee eman or raw wa er
Billion m3
ese ren s are
insufficient to close thegap:
- Depletion of fossilHistorical improvements
Demand with no productivityimprovements
8,000
7,000
Percent
20%
reserves
- Water for
environment isdrained
in water pro uctivity 1
Remaining gap
6,000
5,000
60%
- Demand will gounmet
ncrease n supp y2 un erbusiness-as-usual
Existing accessible,reliable supply3
Today 2
3,000
2030
20%
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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Representative demand- andsupp y-s e measures
Cost of measure
$/m3
0.70 - 0.90
0.04 - 0.21
Desalination
Typical groundwater
Agricultural measure –Irrigation scheduling
(0.12) - (0.02)
(0.60) - (0.30)Industrial measure –
paste tailings(mining)
Without a new, balanced approach, additional investment requirements in upstream
infrastructure will reach up to $200 Bil l ion over and above current levels –
.
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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Base-case demand, supply, corresponding
an gaps or e reg ona case s u es
1 Gap greater than demand supply difference due to mismatch between supply and demand at basin level
2 South Africa Agriculture demand includes a 3% contribution from afforestation
SOURCE: Water
2030
Resources
Group
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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The water availability cost curve and
spec e supp y- eman e c
Net marginal cost in 2030$/m3
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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IndiaWater availability cost curve
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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In Summary In Summary
We need to see major efficiency gains in
a ns mus a so come rom n us r a anMunicipal Systems
Water quality and volume are closely related
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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Transforming Country Water AgendasTransforming Country Water Agendas
Technical program of solutions across agencies and relatedsectors (food, water and energy)
Long-term structured management and change program to help
countries achieve their reform initiatives
Promote local governance measures in partnership with industryand communities
Develop benchmarks and monitor progress
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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a means or
Need to expand investments in waterstressed countries
Focus on:
• Higher efficiencies in Irrigated Agriculture
• Higher efficiencies in Industrial and Urban WaterUse
• Water Quality Improvements• Adapting Water Management to Climate Change
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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ocus on oun r es a areWater Stressed
• Agriculture: achieving higher efficiencies and“more crop per drop” - both irrigated and rain-fed areas
• Cities and industr : demand mana ement,non-revenue water reduction, and reuse
•
storage, allocation, and ecosystem services
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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• Environmental Sanitation: Designing business propositions
• Clean Up Programs and Projects: Restoration
of rivers, lakes, groundwater aquifers and coastal zones
•
the environment as an integral part ofinfrastructure
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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• Investing: in adaptation, and climate proofingprojects in basins and cities
• Risk management: water-related disasters
including floods, droughts, storms
• River basins: building resilience through
processes
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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repar ng e ew rogram
• Water Operations Plan: underpinning anexpanded investment program for 2011-2020
•
Partners Conference: Water Crisis and-,
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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Objectives:• Know ledge exchange with the Asia-Pacific Region and beyond Networking and partnering to address the region’s water challenges
Focus on ey issues inc u ing c imate c ange, energy- oo -water nexus Launch the successor Water Financing Program 2011-2020 with partners
8/3/2019 WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan
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Program:• 3 day technical program
• 6 Ke notes 12 Technical sessions 4 arallel themes on cities food
water quality, IWRM in river basins• Regional sessions and side events
• Targeting 500+ participants