WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes...
-
Upload
agnes-cameron -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
3
Transcript of WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes...
![Page 1: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
WAYNE L. WEBBCAO Project Manager
![Page 2: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Automated order forecasting and generation system
• Utilizes historical sales data
• Limited human intervention
• Seeks to achieve just-in-time inventory management
CAO Concept
![Page 3: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• Overall average score for CAO stores
– 2002 – 4.20– 2003 – 4.25– 2004 – 4.36– 2005 – 4.38– 2006 – 4.48– 2007 – 4.49– 2008 – 4.50
• Steady increase since CAO deployment in January 2002
Year-End Customer Satisfaction Survey: “Well-stocked, Full
Shelves”
![Page 4: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• Increased customer satisfaction
– Higher in-stock rates
– Increased Commissary Customer Service Survey (CCSS) scores
• Reduced inventory levels
– Higher inventory turns
– Loss theft indicators
• Informed decision making
• Improved shelf space allocation
• Increased sales
CAO Benefits
![Page 5: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Good communication = success• Manager / Supervisor / Merchandiser
• Other CAOSs
• QAEs
• Admin office – VCMs
• Distributors
• Industry / sales representatives
• Vendor / contract stockers
• Cashiers
• Receiving personnel
• Janitors
Communication
![Page 6: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
RecommendedOrder
Sales Data BOH
ShelfMaximums
Order Requirements
![Page 7: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
• Sales data
– Average weekly sales
– Projected weekly demand
– Day of the week index
– Forecast error safety
stock
Order Requirements
Sales Data
![Page 8: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
• Balance on Hand (BOH)
– On-hand inventory of
shelf and backroom
• Sales Promotion System
(SPS) Reserve
– Inventory on hand for
future promotions
• Quantity available
– BOH minus SPS Reserve
Order Requirements
Sales Data BOH
![Page 9: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• Shelf maximums set based on:
– Existing shelf space
– Set higher for never-outs
– Set lower for low demand
• Shelf minimums not part of
order calculation when shelf
max is in place
• Facings are informational only
Order Requirements
Sales Data BOH
ShelfMaximums
![Page 10: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
RecommendedOrder
Sales Data BOH
ShelfMaximums
Without all three being completed with correct information, the system does not function correctly
Order Requirements 3 Vital Factors
Control Ordering
![Page 11: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
• If demand exceeds shelf maximum, CAO will order to fulfill
demand and safety stock requirements
• A report generates detailing these items and can be used:
– To expand shelf space
– As a pull sheet
• Phased out/deleted items
– CAO continues to order phased out items until item is flagged
as deleted – once deleted, the item will be automatically
deactivated
Order Requirements
![Page 12: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
66% of the active items
at Langley AFB Commissary
sell less than 21 units per week
less than 3 units a day …
As of 8/11/06
Fact
![Page 13: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Velocity Codes
A B C D E F
Range of Velocity Codes
5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 15%
Safety Stock Percentage
30% 15% 10% 10% 0% 0%
Case Rounding Factors
85% 85% 90% 90% 95% 95%
• Safety Stock– Velocity Code Safety Stock
• Safety Stock Based on an Item’s Velocity Code (A thru F)
– Forecast Error Safety Stock
• Additional safety stock calculated based on a comparison of the order forecasts of the last 2 weeks to actual sales during that period
Other Elements of the Algorithm
![Page 14: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
• Lead time
– The number of days between the date of the order
creation and the required delivery date (RDD)
• Period to Order For (PTOF)
– The number of sales days that the order being
calculated is to cover
Other Elements of the Algorithm
![Page 15: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
• Order builds on Wednesday, RDD on Friday, PAD on Saturday
• Shelf maximum: 48
• UPK: 12
• Velocity code B – case rounding factor = 85% (10.2 units)
• Starting BOH: 36
• Due-in: 12
• Lead time demand: 12 (Wednesday-2, Thursday-4, Friday-6)
• Put away demand (Saturday): 9
• 36 + 12 – 12 = 36 (Virtual BOH, Friday night)
• The difference between virtual BOH and shelf maximum is greater than 85% of UPK, so one case will be ordered
• Shelf maximum (48) minus virtual BOH (36) = 12
Other Elements of the Algorithm Ordering Scenario
![Page 16: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• Store manages their own order / distributor schedule
• Accommodates holiday store closures, distributor
closures for inventory, etc., using an override
feature
• CAO will recalculate projected orders based on the
new schedule
• Can create multiple orders with multiple RDDs
Store Ordering Schedule
![Page 17: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
• Shippers, floor stands / pallet modules
• Items received via the Case and Truckload Sale (CATS)
system
• Demos
• VCMs – merchandise returned to vendor
• Mis-picks
• Unidentified shortages
Factors Impacting BOH Accuracy
![Page 18: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
• Store runs CAO Facility New Item Report
• Generates distinct pull once a week using FDS
• Upon receipt, merchandise to shelf
• Activate and establish shelf maximum
• CAO orders to fill shelf
• Ordering initially based on replenishment
• Forecast developed when there is history of sales
New Items
![Page 19: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
• Maintain orders
–Edit current order
–Review two-week order history
• Manage counts
–Establish / correct BOH
–Process salvage
–Transfer items
–Flagged Item Report (NIS, highs, and lows)
RF HHT Functionality
![Page 20: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Manage items
– Set shelf maximums and facings
– Activate / deactivate items
– View CAO Item Detail
• Reports
– Salvage
– Transfer
– Flagged Item Report
RF HHT Functionality
![Page 21: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
• Lists items and average weekly demand unique to store
• Can be created and released in advance
• If released in advance, due-ins put into reserve
• If received in advance of promotion start date, BOH put
into reserve (SPS Reserve)
• SPS Reserve enables CAO to continue to order for shelf
• Once promotion starts, CAOSs must order manually to
keep displays full
Sales Promotion System (SPS)
![Page 22: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
• Flag local promotions in CAO
– RF HHT used to capture items promoted outside MBU
window to prevent over-ordering after promotion
– Can be used to flag items heavily demo'ed,
couponed, or advertised
Managing Sales History
![Page 23: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
• Two functions – markdown and (store / vendor)
throwaway
• Process streamlined by requiring fewer key strokes
• Automatically computes markdown price
• Saves item information for 2 months plus current month
• Salvage report has various sort options, enabling user
to print by vendor number, PIIN number, distributor,
and department
Salvage Program
![Page 24: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
• User defined date range – applies to sales days
• Will temporarily modify shelf maximum factor
value for date range specified
• User will define shelf maximum factor percentage
(+/-) for various combinations of D/C/G, distributor,
and velocity code
Order Ramp Factor
![Page 25: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
• Identify non-MBU promotions
• Give advance notice of heavily couponed items
• National advertising
• Spot BOH discrepancies
• Reduce mis-picks and shortages
• Follow-up with vendor stockers
What You Can Do to Help
![Page 26: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
• Past
– Payday demand - based on last 8 payday weeks
– Non-payday demand - based on last 8 non-payday weeks
– Override schedules
– Shelf max
– Visibility of 856
• Future
– Daily forecast
Enhancements
![Page 27: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Item Movement
Review Item Movement Data
![Page 28: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Weekly Demand / Promotions
Check Average Weekly Demand
Check Date Last Promoted
![Page 29: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Sales History
Review 60 Weeks Sales History
![Page 30: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: WAYNE L. WEBB CAO Project Manager. Automated order forecasting and generation system Utilizes historical sales data Limited human intervention Seeks to.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cf9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
DeCA Help Desk 1-888-551-1598 or 804-734-8000, ext 48140
(Functional, technical, C-Move or RH-HHT issues)
HQ DeCA Ivy Beres 804-734-8000, ext 48211Bob Crecink 804-734-8000, ext 48983Robert A. Robin 804-734-8000, ext 48672Wayne L. Webb 804-734-8000, ext 48854Gary Williams 804-734-8000, ext 48731
For Assistance