Watership Down? · 2018. 4. 4. · Watership Down? (For the Time Being Anyway...) VMA Market...
Transcript of Watership Down? · 2018. 4. 4. · Watership Down? (For the Time Being Anyway...) VMA Market...
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Watership Down? (For the Time Being Anyway...)
VMA Market Outlook Workshop
August 2014
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A Message From Decker
Local and Regional Drivers
Forces and Trends
Market Performance
Potpourri
Regs and Legs
Fiscal Factors
Prognostication
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Market Performance Who Moved My Cheese?
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% M
ark
et
Gro
wth
2011 2012
2013
The Glory Years
Bad Moon A Risin’ Stimulated
Lag and Slow
Recovery Flat
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Flat +/- for
2013
August 2013
Second half more
robust than first
Some
improvement
in 2014
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2014 The Hunger Games
Water Construction
Wastewater Construction
2nd Quarter Trending
9%
3%
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2014 Chicken Soup for the Soul
The Sages
*McGraw Hill -6%
*PCA +6%
*FMI +2.5%
ENR CICI at 60 for water
and wastewater
CFMA Confindex at 129
Overall
BC Sales and
Opportunity Funnel Up
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Forces and Trends Catch 22
Rate Increases
Public Support
Surveys
Ballot Box
Conservation
Slow Population and
Housing Growth
Loss of Industrial/
Commercial Demand NEED: $Trillion+
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Forces and Trends And Then There Were None
Impacting, Comprehensive
National Regulation
CWA - 1972
SDWA - 1986
CWA - 1987
__________ ???
__________ ???
__________ ???
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Local and Regional Drivers A Tale of Two Cities
Infrastructure
Consent Orders
Supply and Drought
Initiatives
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Infrastructure Things Fall Apart
UCLA
Nationwide - pipe breaks, on
average, every two minutes
14% - 20% non-revenue water
Not just pipes
R&R spend proportionately
increasing
Not yet a CRISIS
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Consent Orders The Litigators
Overflows = Trigger
10 New Consent Orders
Since Last June
EPA Enforcement is
Highly Active
Plenty More to Go
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Supply and Drought The Late, Great Planet Earth
2013 was driest year
on record
Using groundwater at
7X replenishment rate
Worst drought
conditions in 110
years of record
It’s not just
out west
Second worst
drought on record
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Supply and Drought Meat Makes the Planet Thirsty
Used as feed supplement for grass-fed beef
“Exporting” 100 billion gallons per year
from a drought-ridden area
More profitable to send to Asia
Uses more water than other
California crops
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Initiatives The Stand
Chesapeake Bay
Cleanup
Florida
Numeric
Nutrient
Limits
Texas Water Plan
California Bay
Delta Plan
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Fiscal Factors Think and Grow Rich
Muni Bonds
- Good ratings
- Low default
60% > 5% for next 10 years
20% > 10% for next 10 years
Rate Increases
Averaging 5% - 6% Moderate Inflation
- Construction 3.0%
- Labor 3.6%
- Materials 0.3%
States Showing Surplus
$1B 28K jobs
Institutional
- $200B
- Return?
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SRFs
- $1.8 B – House and White House
- CR?
WRRDA /WIFIA
- $175M to EPA
- $1 $10
- 49%
- No tax exempt bonds
HR 4237
- Lift cap on PABs
- $5B/year
Blending
- Iowa won
- Only applies to 8th Circuit
Waters of the US
Regs and Legs Divine Comedy
$10B for Rural Infrastructure
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Potpourri The Joy Luck Club
Stormwater
Desalination
Fracking
DB
World Markets
Infrastructure
Spending
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A Message From Decker
Local and Regional Drivers
Forces and Trends
Market Performance
Potpourri
Regs and Legs
Fiscal Factors
Prognostication
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2014
Claw back to flat; maybe a slight uptick
Prognostication What Color is Your Parachute?
2015
Should see (very) modest growth for
first time in four years
But Remember…
Dependable market; essential to life
Rare booms; won’t tank
Good business to be in
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Watership Down? (For the Time Being Anyway...)
VMA Market Outlook Workshop
August 2014