Water Shortages: What does it hold for Sydney? | Biocity Studio

CRISIS: CLIMATE CHANGE

WHAT DOES IT HOLD FOR SYDNEY?

WATER SHORTAGES

http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/drs/indicator/476/index.html

Mean relative sea-level rise (including land movement) around Australia of about 1.2mm/year was recorded over the period 1920 to 2000.

Climate Change in New South Wales Part 1: Past climate variability and projected changes in average climate: Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Atmospheric Research

Information taken in the East Antarctic and shows sea ice extents and ice sheet mass balance

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Hard Evidence

For

Climate Change

In Sydney, the frequency of extreme sea-level events reaching 2.1 or 2.2 m has doubled or tripled, respectively, since 1950.

http://www.dar.csiro.au/earthsystems/index.html

This is one of the Simulations used as part of the case for climate change.

The Global Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Model



From 1950 to 2003, the NSW annual mean maximum temperature rose 0.15oC/decade and the NSW annual mean minimum temperature rose 0.19oC/decade.

There has been an increase in hot days (35oC or more) of 0.10 days per year, an increase in hot nights (20oC or more) of 0.26 nights per year, a decrease in cold days (15oC or less) of 0.22 days per year and a decrease in cold nights (5oC or less) of 0.29 nights per year.

This map shows the change in temperature for Australia, comparing 1961-1990 with current temperatures. note that there has been an overall

increase in temperatures for Australia.

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These maps and graphs show the predicted rise in temperature in NSW under different climate change scenarios for the years 2030 and 2070

All scenarios show an overall increase in max temperatures which will add to evaporation and infiltration in catchment areas.


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http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=oldmap&variable=deciles&period=36month&area=aus&steps=1

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http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=oldmap&variable=deciles&period=36month&area=aus&steps=1

This map shows the change in rainfall for Australia, comparing 1961-1990 with current rainfalls. note that there has been an increase in rain in the north west of Australia and a decrease in rain in the south east.

The highest recorded proportion of the state with extremely low annual rainfall is 76% in 2002. During the 2002 drought, the low rainfall was accompanied by the highest mean maximum temperatures on record, but close to average mean minimum temperatures.

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NSW annual total rainfall has decreased 14.3mm/decade since 1950, dominated by high year-to-year variability. Many El Niño years (such as 1965, 1982, 1994 and 2002) were associated with very low rainfall.

These maps and graphs show the predicted change in rainfall for NSW under different climate change scenarios, all scenarios show that rain fall will become more varied with longer periods of drought and more intense rain events.

This will cause increased evaporation from dams and reservoirs and an increase in infiltration of runoff in catchment areas meaning less water will be available for use.


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Australia’s average

rainfall is 400 mm

Sydney’s average

annual rainfall is

1200mm

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Even thought Sydney's annual rainfall

Is so much higher than the Australian average

Very little of it falls in the catchment areas. As most of the rainfall falls on the coast and the catchments are further inland.

These maps and graphs show the predicted change in the atmospheres moisture content in NSW under different climate change scenarios for the years 2030 and 2070

The reduction of moisture in the air will greatly increase evaporation in catchments, further reducing the amount of water available for Sydney's use.


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Sydney’s dam levels since 1960.

Sydney's response to water shortages, including water restrictions and the effect they had on dam levels.

2 0 0 6 M e t r o p o l i t a n W a t e r P l a n

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To deal with variable runoff patterns, the extended operating storage capacity of the Sydney system of dams is around 2,600 billion litres - very large relative to the population it serves.

Geologically, Port Jackson is a drowned river valley, or ria. It is 19 km long with an area of 55 km². The estuary's volume at high tide is 562,000 mega litres. The perimeter of the estuary is 317 kilometres.

Warragamba Dam in New South Wales and Sydney's major water supply is described as being "4 times the size of Sydney Harbour" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Harbour

Sydney’s current storage system could provide Sydney with four years of supply under zero inflow conditions. Compare this with Tokyo, which has six weeks of zero inflow supply, or London with 10 weeks.

Though currently the dam levels are just over 50% capacity, meaning there is little over 2 years supply if there is zero inflow

The total capacity of Sydney's water supply is around 4.6 Sydney harbours

At current dam levels of 56% Sydney's drinkable water supply stands at 1,350 Billion litres or 2.3 Sydney harbours

The amount of water that can be safely used per year is less than ¼ of the entire capacity of the system 650 billion litres or just over 1 Sydney harbour.

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2 0 0 6 M e t r o p o l i t a n W a t e r P l a n

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Harbour

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Short term effects 2015

• Introduction of water saving measure by government (water restrictions) already in place.• Environmental strain seen in gardens both public and private due to reduction in watering.•Increase in water costs as supply drops.• Loss in agriculture due to water restrictions• Rivers feel stain as more water is extracted to supplement supply, reducing flow rates to below natural.

Long term effects 2070

• Less available water due to increased evaporation of reservoirs and dams.• Increase in temperature coupled with dryer air and longer droughts and more intense rainfall events will cause vegetation to suffer• Large scale vegetation die-off due to lack of water/irrigation• Environmental disasters along rivers as water extraction for Sydney’s survival outweigh environmental concerns. Eg Shoalhaven river extraction limitations relaxed.• Fresh food prices greatly increase as local agriculture becomes unviable due to lack of water for irrigation.

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Worst case Scenario

•Sydney runs out of water,

•Dams run dry,

•The pipe network system totally collapses, leaving the population of Sydney without fresh running water.

•Both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems diminish.

•Water has to be shipped in at great expense from neighbouring water rich countries.

www.acmp.com.au/.../imagepages/image7.html

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Where to now?

Research into government plans and policies for water saving

Research into desalination vs. large scale water treatment plants

www.theage.com.au http://www.ourworldfoundation.org.uk/0016626.jpg

Water Shortages: What does it hold for Sydney? | Biocity Studio

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