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Water Security for Sustainable Development: The challenge of Scarcity in theMiddle East & North Africa

Shawki Barghouti

Director GeneralInternational Center for Biosaline Agriculture

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water scarcity challenges development in Middle East & North Africa Region

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Contents

o MENA: Status of Natural resources and Population;

o MENA Water Resources; and economic development

o MENA Agriculture and water Demand;

o Dealing with Climate Change;

o Investment in Water Science and Management.

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The MENA region

� Arid and the climate inherently unstable;

� Vegetative and soil resources fragile;

� Meager water resources;

� Natural environment generally degraded;

� Rapid population growth.

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High rate of population growth

Population Growth (6% of world population):

1980: 150 million people 2007: 317 million people2015: 395 million people (more than Europe)

GDP less than Spain and Italy

AlgeriaLibya

MoroccoTunisia

EgyptSaudi Arabia

Yemen

UAE

IraqIran

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Mainly in urban space

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More people will live in urban areasP

opul

atio

n (m

illio

ns)

Total MENA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

Total Urban MENA

Total Rural MENA

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Fragile natural resources

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Shared rivers in MENA regionwith increasing scarcity in Egypt, Jordan and Iraq

� Water dependency and international cooperation.� 60% of fresh water resources are in shared rivers.

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11

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Water Quality in the Gulf

� 251 000km2

� 989 km long

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Urbanization, Desalination & Water Quality in the Gulf.

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Actual renewable freshwater resources per capita by region

0 10 20 30 40

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Western Europe

East Asia & Pacific (incl. Japan & Koreas)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe & Central Asia

North America

Latin America & Caribbean

Australia & New Zealand

1000 m^3 / year

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Actual renewable freshwater resources per capita by region

0 10 20 30 40

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Western Europe

East Asia & Pacific (incl. Japan & Koreas)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe & Central Asia

North America

Latin America & Caribbean

Australia & New Zealand

1000 m^3 / year

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Proportion of regional freshwater resources stored in reservoirs

� Dams and water tanks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

EAP ECA LAC MNA SAS SSA North America

Aus/NZ W. Europe

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Population with access to water services

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bahrain Kuwait Qatar UAE Lebanon Jordan Iran Oman Tunisia SaudiArabia

Morocco Algeria Egypt Djibouti Syria WBG Yemen

More than 60 million without adequate water services: fresh water and sanitation.

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Increasing use of non-conventional water

Country 2000 2008

Bahrain 104 371

Kuwait 522 1662

Oman 60 294

Qatar 178 941

Saudi Arabia 1278 3341

UAE 1081 4878

Total 3223 11487

Desalination Capacities in Gulf Countries (million m3 annually)

Source: GCC Annual report: Water

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Growth of desalinated water supply

o Thermal desalination has provided the bulk of potable water. Recently RO is being adopted in most countries.

o Production expanded in 2008 producing 11487 million cubic meters in the Gulf.

o US$ 1.75-2:15 per cubic meter Including transport. Total annual cost US$ 20 billion.

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Energy use, desalination and the atmosphere

o Cogeneration electricity and water plants produce about 21 million tons equivalent of carbon emissions a year

o Water production uses energy about 20% in summer and 46% in winter

o Desalination produces 40 to 180 million tons of CO2 a year

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Increased use of treated wastewater

� Jordan, the Gulf, Syria, Egypt and Tunisia have increased the use of treated waste water: 15 to 45 percent of urban water supplies recycled for agriculture and landscape;

� Increase investment in decentralized waste water treatment in cities in Jordan and UAE and Tunisia.

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Sources of water and use

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libyan Morocco Oman Qatar SaudiArabia

Syria Tunisia UAE WestBank & Gaza

Yemen

Internal renewable water resources External renewable water resources

Non-renewable ground water Virtual Water

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Water use and allocations

� Agriculture is the largest user averaging 80% in Egypt and 65% in Jordan

� Urban Supplies receive about 15-20%

� Industrial services about 5-10

� Environment receives little or no allocation.

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Allocating water to agriculture in MENA is under increasing pressure!

� Declining contribution of agriculture to national economy.

� Increasing globalization of agricultural trade and economies.

� High potential areas already developed.

� Productivity of marginal areas not competitive.

� Main water resources have been exploited.

� Increasing demand by other sectors.

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Declining shares of agriculture in GDP

0

10

20

30

40

50

1965 1970 1980 1990 2004

GDP Shares: in MENA Region

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)Industry, value added (% of GDP)Services, etc., value added (% of GDP)

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Virtual Water in Grain Import in the Arab World

Region Cereal Imported

Equivalent in virtual water

West Asia 32, 368 mt 64,736 b m3

North Africa 26, 687 mt 53, 374 bm3

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Developmental Impact of reducing water to Irrigation

� Economic dislocation of vulnerable farming communities

� Costly social adjustment

� Risk to food supplies

� Loss of rural employment

� Migration to already crowded urban centers

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Water and the millennium Development Goal

� Ensure environmental sustainability: The Water and Sanitation Targets are

� Integrate the principles of sustainable development into the country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources;

� Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water;

� Achieve by 2020 significant improvement in the lives of 100 million slum dwellers

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water services and MDG Goals_ Water Supply and Sanitation

� Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger� Water for improving the quality of life – for

health and for economic development (manufacturing and business). Increases productive activities though reduced sick days and saved drawing time.

� Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education� Access to good quality water saves time and

keeps children fit so that they can attend school regularly. Sanitation and water facilities underpin a healthy school environment.

� Goal 3 Promote gender equality and empower women

� Saved time allows women to take better care of themselves and their families. Goal 4 Reduce child mortality

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Big public investment in irrigation- systems not yet efficient

Area equipped for irrigation

(‘000 ha)

% increase in irrigated area

sine 1970

Algeria (2000) 569 101

Egypt 3422 20

Iran 7264 28

Iraq (1996) 4535 138

Jordan (1995) 73 114

Lebanon (1995) 88 29

Libya 470 169

Morocco 1443 57

Oman 73 150

Saudi Arabia 1731 374

Syria 1267 181

Turkey 4380 175

TUNISIA 394 338

UAE (1995) 67 1234

Yemen (1995) 482 85

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• Average global surface temperature likely to rise between 0.6° to 4°C by 2100

• Increases in precipitation in the high-latitudes

• Decreases in precipitation in most subtropical and semi-arid regions by as much as about 20%

• Decreases in runoff

• Changes in frequency and intensity of droughts, flooding and storms

• Ice cap shrinking and rising sea levels by 0.18 to 0.59 m

Climate change

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• One of the most vulnerable regions, though least polluting in the world (GHG emissions 4.5%)

• Emissions growth (84% are oil generated) has outpaced all the other regions (1995-2004)

• Temperatures are expected to increase by 2-2.5°C by 2050

• General decrease in annual precipitation by 10.5%, but up to 30- 40 % in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and UAE

In 2071-2100, relative to 1961-1990

Climate changeImpact on MENA

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• Renewable water resources (RW) declined to 1/3rd of its level in 1960

• More countries (Yemen, Jordan, Libya, Algeria, Palestine) are experiencing acute water shortage

• Drought frequency is increasing

Climate change How will climate change affect the MENA water status?

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• Accelerating drought cycle and desertification projected – especially for N. Africa

• Runoffs to decrease by 20-30%

• Reduced surface water infiltration will worsen unsustainable depletion of groundwater

• Increasing urban population (by 93% between 1995-2050) and demographic growth (>2%) will put more pressure on Renewable Water (RW) resources

North Africa, range of % change in runoff

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

00-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5

Temperature incr ease, degree celsius

per

cen

t cha

ng

e

…Source: World Bank

Climate changeImpact on MENA

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Climate ChangeImpact on MENA agriculture

• MENA has High dependency on climate-sensitive agriculture

• Crops and livestock will face increased heat stress – yield reduction by up to 10%

• Increase in crop water demand by 5-8% by 2070 with fall in productivity of water

• Intensified evaporation to increase the salt accumulation in soils

• Increase in pest infestations in warmer climates - leads to greater use of chemical pesticides

• Rise of seas level poses threat to agriculture in low-lying coastal areas – particularly Egypt

• Natural ecosystems such as rangelands and forests are less resilient and more vulnerable

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Issues affecting the water sector in the MENA region� The region allocated significant investment in developing

water resources.

� The region supported advances in hydrological engineering which allowed full utilization of surface and ground water resources.

� The region gives more attention to engineering than to water policy and demand management.

� The region urgently needs to strengthen water institutions to manage water policies and water management projects.

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Suggested solutions:Dealing with water scarcity and climate change -1

� Reduce water allocation to agriculture;� Import water through virtual water;� Invest in modern irrigation technology;� Change cropping systems;� Increase the use of non conventional water:

(saline. treated waste, marginal and industrial water);

� Invest in modern water institutions to improve policies management;

� Invest in water science and technology;

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Expanded rainwater harvesting.

o Invest in renewable energy.

o Water storage, conservation and reuse.

o Improve technology of desalinating water and its efficient use and recycling.

o Sector-wide water reforms to balance water demand and supply.

�Reducing loss in quantity and quality of water

o Restoration of degraded lands.

Suggested solutions:Dealing with water scarcity and climate change -2

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o Introduce crop varieties and/or species with increased resistance to heat shock, salinity and drought

o Improve irrigation efficiency - Altering amounts and timing

o Conserve soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods (e.g. crop residue retention, zero tillage)

o Change land use to take advantage of modified agroclimatic conditions

o Diversify income of rural families

o Modernize water and agricultural intuitions

o Increase farm water management

o Improve science and technology

ICBA – ICARDA – ACSAD – AWA

Suggested solutions:Dealing with water scarcity and climate change -3

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Thank you for your attention

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