Water Futures and Solutions: Developing a New Generation of … · 2016. 5. 24. · • Water...
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David A. Wiberg Water Futures and Solutions: Developing a New Generation of Integrated World Water Scenarios Worlds Within Reach, From Science to Policy 26 October, 2012, Laxenburg, Austria
Transcript of Water Futures and Solutions: Developing a New Generation of … · 2016. 5. 24. · • Water...
David A. Wiberg
Water Futures and Solutions: Developing a New Generation of Integrated World Water Scenarios
Worlds Within Reach, From Science to Policy
26 October, 2012, Laxenburg, Austria
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
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• ~ 900 million people still have inadequate access to safe freshwater (WHO & UNICEF, 2010)
• Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water)
Water: Global ChallengesAccess and Use
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Asia Withdrawal
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David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
Water: Global ChallengesWater Scarcity
• 25% of population live in areas of physical water scarcity
• In many areas, withdrawals exceed local renewable water resources.
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
• Population still growing, adding 2 billion more by 2050
• Food production requirements potentially 70% greater by 2050
• 20% of the world’s population has no access to electricity
– Industrial and energy water uses exceed agriculture in high-income countries.
• Ecosystems?
Water: Global ChallengesIncreasing and Competing Demands
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David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg Source: Gudmundsson et al, 2011
Water: Global ChallengesClimate Change and Variability
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
Water: Management Challenges• Water management must intensify.• Managing the water sector alone is no longer enough
– Water integrates across scales and sectors, which all use and influence increasingly scarce water resources.
• Water management is risk based, but how does risk change?– Large uncertainties
• Data• Scenarios• Models
– No stationarity• More robust,
flexible solutions required
David A. Wiberg
Chrystal Ball?
Water: Management ChallengesDecisions under Uncertainty
• How do we make decisions now that will be effective and robust into the future under increasing risks?
No
Perfect foresight?
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
1. Conceptual model2. Driver analysis3. Narratives of future 4. Changes in drivers5. Impacts6. Management options7. Identify sets of robust, flexible solutions 8. CommunicateAll items are done iteratively with stakeholders
Water Futures and SolutionsWorld Water Scenarios Approach
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/GEA/
Data repository for:• IPCC• WATCH• GEA• GAEZ• POP• GAINS
http://www.gaez.iiasa.ac.at
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/proj07/
Water Futures and SolutionsWorld Water Scenarios Approach: Applying Experience
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
Conventional World
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Conflict-world
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Conventional World
Gone Sour
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Techno-world
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Global Conciousness
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Development Phase Reports – Drivers and Stylized Scenarios
Drivers Stylized Scenarios• Agriculture• Climate change/variability• Demography• Economy/Security• Ethics• Governance• Infrastructure• Politics• Technology• Water Resources
Water Futures and SolutionsWorld Water Scenarios Approach: Initializing
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
1947.5 1997.5 2047.5
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SCENES: Multi-level Scenarios for Europe
After two rounds of enrichment
Early stakeholder growth estimates
Water Futures and SolutionsWorld Water Scenarios Approach: Applying Experience
David A. Wiberg
Modeling Advances and Multi-model Assessments
Orchidee
WaterGap
MacPDM
H08
GWAVA VIC
Jules
LPJml
MPI-HM
Matsiro
HTessel
Land Surface Models
Global Hydrological Models
Water Futures and SolutionsWorld Water Scenarios Approach: Applying Experience
David A. WibergDavid A. WibergHaddeland et al, in review J Hydromet.
Multi-model AssessmentsSummary of Watch Results – average of models 1985-1999
Precipitation Evaporation Run-off Fraction
872 mm 415-586 mm 0.33 - 0.52Watermip:
GSWP2: 829 mm 272-442 mm 0.47 - 0.68
David A. WibergDavid A. Wiberg
• New generation of integrated global water scenarios and vision that are consistent with other global scenarios.
• Solution options toolbox for scenario-based decision making– Methods– Data bases and information– Exploratory models, impact calculators, automated checklists– Solution options– Decision trees for mapping solutions to local conditions
• Information exchange network– Mutual learning through exchange of experience and solutions
• Training workshops
Water Futures and SolutionsWorld Water Scenarios Output
David A. Wiberg
THANK YOU!
If we focus our attention on problems, we will find problems.
If we focus our attention on solutions, we will find solutions.
