Based on a paper by Uma Lele, Herve Plusquellec and Richard Reidinger

The Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security, Cd. Obregon, Mexico

25-28 March 2014

Water for Agriculture in 2050: Are We Ready? Uma Lele

“Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict. If the entire world’s peoples work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours.” (Kofi Annan, World Water Day 2002).

“We need to move beyond the ‘complacency of denial mode.” (Mihir Shah, member of India’s Planning Commission, February 24, 2011; Keynote Speech, Global Water Partnership (GWP) and International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Workshop, Colombo, Sri Lanka).

“Growing water related conflicts will be Asia’s defining crisis of the 21stcentury.” (Chellaney 2011).

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Total Renewable Water Resources per capita (actual) by Country (m3/inhab/yr)

1958-1962 2008-2012

Source: Lele and Associates, based on the AQUASTAT database, FAO.

Low and Declining Per Capita Water Availability is Leading to Intense

Competition

Latest Example: California Ag: 1% of GDP 66% of Water Use

Globally 42% of Production from 16 percent of Area For developing countries– ◦ 21 percent of arable land, and 49 percent of all crop

production from Irrigation ◦ 60 percent of cereal production from Irrigation

◦ R and D on Rain fed Agriculture only now beginning to

receive attention in policy and investments--- barring LAC

Source: Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. (2012). World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03. Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Large and Medium Scale Surface Irrigation—Largely Public Sector-- about 100m hectares.

Public + Farmer Managed—Irrigation Management

Transfers, also known as PIM Farmer Managed—Tube wells, Sprinklers, Drip Traditional Farmer Managed Peri-Urban

Public Private Partnerships –Contract Farming

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Groundwater Irrigated Area as Percentage of Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (%)

(2009)

Source: Lele and Associates, based on AQUASTAT database . http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat and FAO. 2012. FAOSTAT database . http://faostat.fao.org/

Northern Africa 1.8%

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.3%

Northern America 15%

Central America and Caribbean

0.5%

Southern America 1.7%

Middle East 10%

Central Asia 1%

South Asia 45%

East Asia 17%

Western and Central Europe

6%

Eastern Europe 0.8%

Oceania 1%

Area Irrigated by Groundwater (2009) Total= 117.2 (million ha)

Source: Lele and Associates, based on AQUASTAT database . http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat and FAO. 2012. FAOSTAT database . http://faostat.fao.org/

Drilling of Tube wells Sprinklers Drip Little or No Reliable Data on these changes Little and Fragmented Regulation and absence of

comprehensive water policies. On the Contrary Subsidies for Promotion of Water

Use combined with subsidies for power

Holistic? Australia Israel China Morocco State of Gujarat in India Very Limited Research on improving Water Management or Water

conservation—IWMI’s Water for Food study? Few Independent studies of Impacts Almost no Studies that measure outcomes ◦ zero tillage, Direct Seeding, AW & D, PIM, Watershed development

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

196

1

196

2

196

3

196

4

196

5

196

6

196

7

196

8

196

9

197

0

197

1

197

2

197

3

197

4

197

5

197

6

197

7

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Total Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (1000 ha)

(1961-2011)

South Asia

East Asia

Europe and Central Asia

Northern America

Latin America and Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: : Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data

Oceania North Africa

South-Eastern Asia

Western Asia

Distribution of Electric and Diesel Pump-sets in South Asia

Source: Tushaar Shah (2009) Climate change and groundwater: India’s opportunities for mitigation and adaptation.

+3 million of Drip Irrigation

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

US

A

Uzb

ekis

tan

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Ru

ssia

Uk

rain

e

Bra

zil

Ka

zak

hst

an

Fra

nce

Ita

ly

So

uth

Afr

ica

Sp

ain

Sa

ud

i A

rab

ia

Ca

na

da

Aze

rba

ija

n

Ger

ma

ny

Au

stra

lia

Tu

rkey

Ira

n

Eg

yp

t

Ro

ma

nia

Ja

pa

n

Mex

ico

Slo

va

k R

ep

Ko

rea

Mo

rocc

o

Hu

ng

ary

Mo

ldo

va

Gre

at

Bri

tain

Sy

ria

Isra

el

Fin

lan

d

Ma

law

i

Po

rtu

ga

l

Bu

lga

ria

Ch

ines

e T

aip

ei

Ch

ile

Cze

ch R

ep

Slo

ven

ia

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Po

lan

d

Ma

ced

on

ia

Lit

hu

an

ia

Ma

lay

sia

Est

on

ia

Sprinkler Irrigated Area (Hectares)

Sprinkler Irrigated Area by Top Countries (Data provided by The International

Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) for 45 Countries)

Source: Lele and Associates, based on data available at http://www.icid.org/icid_data.html, The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Sp

ain

US

A

Ita

ly

Ko

rea

So

uth

Afr

ica

Bra

zil

Ira

n

Mex

ico

Sa

ud

i A

rab

ia

Au

stra

lia

Isra

el

Tu

rkey

Eg

yp

t

Fra

nce

Sy

ria

Ja

pa

n

Uk

rain

e

Ru

ssia

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ch

ile

Ka

zak

hst

an

Mo

ldo

va

Fin

lan

d

Ch

ines

e T

aip

ei

Mo

rocc

o

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ca

na

da

Gre

at

Bri

tain

Ma

law

i

Ger

ma

ny

Ma

lay

sia

Cze

ch R

ep

Ro

ma

nia

Bu

lga

ria

Slo

va

k R

ep

Uzb

ekis

tan

Ma

ced

on

ia

Slo

ven

ia

Est

on

ia

Aze

rba

ija

n

Micro Irrigated Area (Hectares)

Micro Irrigated Area by Top Countries (Data provided by The International Commission on

Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) for 45 Countries)

Source: Lele and Associates, based on data available at http://www.icid.org/icid_data.html, The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID). Note: Data is not available for

Lithuania.

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ba

se

Ye

ar

19

61=

10

0

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growing in Some Regions more than others (1961-2010)

Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Lag in

TFP Growth

Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY

Sub-Saharan Africa (Except South Africa)

Latin America and Caribbean

North America

North East Asia

South-East Asia South Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Oceania

50

100

150

200

250

300B

as

e Y

ea

r 1

96

1=

10

0

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Index Growth by Key Countries

(1961-2010)

Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY

India

China

Brazil

Mexico

Indonesia Pakistan

United States

Real Agricultural Prices Have Fallen Since 1900, Even as World Population Growth Accelerated

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using Fuglie et al 2012. Depicted in the chart is the Grilli-Yang agricultural price index adjusted for inflation by the U.S. Gross Domestic Product implicit price index. The Grilli-Yang price index is a composite of 18 crop and livestock prices, each weighted by its share of global agricultural trade (Pfaffenzeller et al 2007). World

population estimates are from the United Nations.

Total Agricultural Products Exports by Region (Export Value in Million$) (Real=Nominal/MUV) (MUV Index 2000=100)

(1970-2010)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

900019

70

197

1

197

2

197

3

197

4

197

5

197

6

197

7

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Source: Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data and World Bank MUV Index

Africa

North America

Latin America and Caribbean

East Asia

South Asia

South-East Asia

Rest of Asia

Europe

Oceania

Rainfed

Groundwater Surfacewater

Sustainability

Equity Efficiency

2050 Challenge

9 Billion+ in 2050: Cereal Production (Net of Biofuels) Increase by 60 percent over 2005 level

to meet demand growth of 1.1 percent annually down from 2.2 percent in the past 4 decades

Cereals production must increase by 940 million tonnes to reach 3 billion tonnes;

Meat production must increase by 196 million tonnes to reach 455 million tonnes; and

Oil crops must increase by 133 million tonnes to reach 282 million tonnes.

On Demand Side On Supply Side

Population Growth

--All in LDCs Slowing Yield Growth

Income Growth

--Mostly in LDCs Climate Change

Urbanization

--Up from 50 percent to 70 percent

Limits to Land, Water, Soils, Biodiversity,

Forests, Fisheries

Shift in Food Consumption Patterns

--Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybeans for Feed

Last Frontiers?

---LAC, SSA, Eastern Europe

Biofuels

--Maize, Oilseeds

Increased Market Related Risks and

Uncertainty

Processed Foods DE capitalization of Agriculture

--Investment in R and D

Lele, Agarwal and Goswami, AAEA 2011

Projected Impact of Climate Change

None include water, nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion

Range in Price Behavior from small decline to increase

Impacts of Biofuels will depend on policies

Biggest Decline in Production to come from Climate change

Martin von Lampe et al, Agricultural Economics 45 (2014) 3–20

Arable Irrigated Land Will Increase Very little by 2050: Equipped and in Use (million ha) (1960-2050)

Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012.

Latin America and SSA Major Source of Growth Actual and Projected Growths of Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region

(1961-2050)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

196

119

63

196

519

67

196

919

71

197

319

75

197

719

79

198

119

83

198

519

87

198

919

91

199

319

95

199

719

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

112

013

20

152

017

20

192

02

12

02

32

02

52

02

72

02

92

03

12

03

32

03

52

03

72

03

92

04

12

04

32

04

52

04

72

04

9

Source: Lele and Associates, based on Schmidhuber’s Excel Sheet 2013

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and Caribbean

South Asia

East and South-East Asia

Near East and North Africa

Increasing Efficiency and Productivity of Water of Utmost Urgency

2 Billion People Living in river and lake basins in two or more countries,

148 countries with territory within one or more trans

boundary river basins, 30 countries lay entirely within them.

Over 90 percent of the population lives in countries

with shared basins . Asia, Europe, and Africa have well over 60 basins each (

nearly 2 billion people worldwide depend on groundwater

Approximately 300 trans boundary aquifer systems (The Facts and Figures - UN Water 2013, http://www.unwater.org/water-cooperation-2013/water-cooperation/facts-and-figures/en/)

Basins at Risk

Over Billion people Limited information on their water resources Huge Potential Findings of two recent World Bank studies:

◦ Lack of data and analysis results in over-

expectations-Nepal/India

◦ Lack of progress on agreements-- Egypt/Ethiopia because of preconceived notions in Egypt?

Public Irrigation Systems underperforming

Poor O and M

Delays in implementation

Absence of incentives to improve performance

Lessons of Experience

Modernize irrigation systems do not just rehabilitate

Adopted Improved Management Practices

Increase Water Charges After Improving Delivery of Water Services, (Quantity, quality, reliability, predictability, adequacy)

China Investments in R &I $ 32.5 Billion annually over 10 years India $13 b annually

State ownership of Natural Resources

Unitary Government

Engineers in Charge

Legal reforms

Mostly expansion of surface irrigation

Canal Lining

Water Users’ Associations

Rapid Implementation

28 States Responsible for Water Management and Agriculture

A Mix of public, private ownership of water

Decentralized System of planning and implementation

Delays in implementation

Poor performance of Surface Irrigation

Public Expenditure in Irrigation and Net Irrigated Area in India

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Ne

t ir

rig

ate

d a

re

a (

mil

lio

n h

a)

Ex

pe

nd

itu

re

in

Ir

rig

ati

on

(B

illi

on

US

D 2

00

5 c

on

sta

nt

pr

oc

es

)

Expenditure-major and medium irrigation Expenditure-minor irrigation

Expenditure-Command area development Trend-net irrigated area-canals

Trend-net irrigated area-tanks Trend-Net irrigated area-groundwater

Source: Unpublished paper by Mehta and Shah.

(C+E+N) Agric. Extension & research

7%

(F+I+J) Animal Production

2%

(G+L+M)Crops 8% (O)Forestry

5%

(H)Irrigation & Drainage 32%

(P+Q)General Ag. 11%

(R)Public Admin-Agriculture

1%

(K+S+T)Agric. Marketing and Trade +

Agro-industry 7%

Agriculture adj. 15%

Agricultural cred 12%

Irrigation Highest Share of IBRD-IDA Commitments Among Agricultural Sub-sectors

(MUV Index 2000=100) (1960-2011) (%)

Total=116.6 US$ Billions

Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank Projects and Operations Data. http://www.worldbank.org/projects/.

82 World Bank Funded Irrigation and Drainage Projects in India (1953-2013)

Source: Lele and Associates, based on data source http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/projects/all?s

ector_exact=Irrigation+and drainage&qterm=&lang_exact=English

Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank data, Available at http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/ieg/en/home/ratings.html Note: Marginally satisfactory and above includes Highly satisfactory, Moderately satisfactory, Satisfactory and Marginally satisfactory

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

India China Brazil Mexico Indonesia Pakistan Bangladesh

SHARE OF MARGINALLY SATISFACTORY AND ABOVE (%) (Overall Ratings on Agriculture and Rural Development)

SHARE OF MARGINALLY SATISFACTORY AND ABOVE (%) (Ratings on Irrigation & Drainage Only)

Share of the 176 Irrigation and Drainage and 517 Agriculture and Rural Development Projects among the World Bank’s Seven Largest

Borrowers, Rated Marginally Satisfactory and Better

Total Area Harvested for Cereals (million ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and

Indonesia)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

196

1

196

4

196

7

197

0

197

3

197

6

197

9

198

2

198

5

198

8

199

1

199

4

199

7

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

20

12

Brazil China India Indonesia

Total Cereals Yield (hg/ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and Indonesia)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

196

1

196

4

196

7

197

0

197

3

197

6

197

9

198

2

198

5

198

8

199

1

199

4

199

7

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

20

12

Brazil China India Indonesia

Source: Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Nu

mb

er

of

Irr

iga

tio

n &

Dr

ain

ag

e p

ro

jec

ts

Co

mm

itm

en

ts(U

S$

Bil

lio

n)

(Re

al=

No

min

al/

MU

V)

MUV Index 2000=100

Number of Irrigation & Drainage Projects Funded by IBRD-IDA and Total

Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage (US$ Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV)

(1960-2011)

Number of projects IBRD-IDA Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage

Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank data

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Nu

mb

er

of

Wa

ter

Se

cto

r P

ro

jec

ts w

ith

I&

D C

om

po

ne

nt

Wa

ter

Se

cto

r L

oa

ns

an

d G

ra

nts

(U

S$

Bil

lio

n)

(Re

al=

No

min

al/

MU

V)

Number of Water Sector Projects with I&D Component Funded by ADB

and Total Water Sector Loans and Grants with I&D Sector (US$ Billion)

(Real=Nominal/MUV) (1969-2011)

Number of projects

Total Water Sector Loans and Grants with I & D Component (Billion USD)

Waterpart (Billion USD)

Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Asian Development Bank Data

A movement that has spread throughout the world Evaluation of IMWI’s Program Mixed record of success: China, Mexico, vs. India Piecemeal information on Impacts of Transfer

Agreements on quantity or quality of water service delivery

E.g. Improved Operation and Maintenance ? Improved productivity

Source: ASTI as reported in Beintema and Stads (2011)

Dearth of Independent Impact Evaluations

Zero tillage—reasonable impact at scale, but less about water saving than soil management

Direct Seeding—Unclear benefits

W and D in Water Management

System of Rice Intensification?

Globally and Country by Country

Improve and Disseminate Data on Irrigation and Water Use at all levels

Substantially Increase R and D on water and water use efficiency and water productivity

Improve incentives for water conservation

Focus on Measuring Improved Outcomes

Recognize Jevon’s Effects of Change in irrigation technologies at the macro level

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

40019

61

196

3

196

5

196

7

196

9

197

1

197

3

197

5

197

7

197

9

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

20

27

20

29

20

31

20

33

20

35

20

37

20

39

20

41

20

43

20

45

20

47

20

49

Without Resource Conservation Global Gap in Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Indices Will increase over time (1961-2050)

Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY

Sub-Saharan Africa (Except South Africa)

Latin America and Caribbean

North America

North-East Asia

South-East Asia

South Asia

Oceania

Middle East and North Africa

[TFP Index (2010=100) with projections]

Rural Development Trust rdtfvf.org©Nagappa.

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