watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with...
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CarbonWasteManagement
KlausSLacknerSeptember,2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs
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Carbondioxidepilesuplikegarbage
• Carbondioxideemissionsstayintheatmosphereforcenturies
• Warmingfromcarbondioxidelastsforamillennium
• Excesscarbonacidifiestheoceanformillennia
NeedtoconvincepeopleandcorporationstocleanuptheirCO2 garbageCreateamovementlikerecycling
MovingtoawastemanagementparadigmrepresentsabigshiftindealingwithCO2
Reduce,Reuse,Recycle+DISPOSALCostofdisposalmotivatesReuse
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Theglobalcarbonbudgetisheadingintooverdraft
ParisAgreement:holdwarmingbelow1.5°Coratmost2°C• Promisedemissionsreductionswillreach4°C,businessasusualmorethan6°C• Cannotstopanymoreintime
IPCC:neednegativeemissions• PullingCO2 backfromtheair• StoringCO2 safelyandpermanently
Thepercapitafuelallotmentfor2°CMustlastforgenerations
http://www.emercedesbenz.com/Aug08/08_001327_Mercedes_Benz_Econic_Semi_Trailer_Tanker_Trucks_Enter_Service_At_London_Farnborough_Airport.html
MajorbusinessriskforinvestorsOpportunityforleaders
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TechnologiesforCarbonManagement
• CarbonStorageDisposalofexcesscarbonundergroundEstablishedtechnologybutnotatscale
• PointSourceCaptureProvenbutnotwidelydeployed
• FuelSynthesisConvertingrenewableenergyintoliquidfuelsBasedonproventechnology,needsscaling
• DirectAirCaptureofCarbonDioxideNoveltechnologywehaveintroducedNeedsdemonstrationandscaling
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TechnologyGap:DirectAirCaptureNeed:ClosureofcarboncycleviaDirectAirCapture(DAC)• OnlyDirectaircapturecanscaletoclosethecarboncyclethroughtheair
Feasibility:Technologyworksinsubmarines,butisstilltooexpensive• Costsimposedbyphysicsareaffordable
energyrequirementislessthan5%ofenergyincarbon• Othertechnologieshavesolvedmoredifficultextractionproblems
Passivecollectorscanpulluraniumoutofseawateratreasonablecost(100,000timesmoredilutethanCO2 inair)
Cost:Designchoicesandlearningbydoingcandrivecostdown• Passivedevicestandinginthewindlikeawindmillminimizesenergyandcapitalcosts• Ourmoistureswingsorbentstradeexpensiveenergyforcheapwater• Massmanufacturingcandrivecostdownbyhugefactors
Anaircollectorcouldcapture100to500timesasmuchCO2 asisavoidedbyanequallysizedwindmill.
Massproductioncandrasticallyreducecost(photovoltaicpanels,computers,cars)
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Air Capture is Real
Research is proceeding at a number of universitiesASU, Georgia Tech, Columbia University, ETH Zurich, Sheffield University, Zhejiang University, …
• Several start-ups have working prototypes• Different approaches, different markets• Gaining experience, demonstrating costs• Establishing a new technology
….
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AvoidingSherwood’sRule
Sherwood’sRule
Thecostofthefirststepintheseparationdominates
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 𝑎𝐷 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 log𝐷
SOURCE:NationalResearchCouncil(1987)
Ufromseawater
AirCaptureAspiration
Bulkprocessing
Thermodynamicseparation
Sherwood’sRuleforminerals~$10/tonofore
CostofseparationscaleslinearlywithdilutionD
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ASU’saircapturedesign
§ Passivewind-drivendesignavoidsSherwood’sobjection§ Moisturecontrolledsorbent reducesenergyconsumption§ Massproductionofsmallunitsdrivescostsdown
LessonsareappliedinaDOEprojecttofeedCO2 toalgaePrototypetestedontheroof
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Howtomovetoscale?
RelyonlearningMassproductionapproach
FindmarketsSmallcommercialniches
CreatevaluepropositionValueisultimatelyderivedfromcleanupWastemanagementparadigm
Technologycanreachglobalscaleswithpropermarketincentives
Mass-producedfactory-builtone-ton-per-dayunits
100millionunitswouldeliminatecurrentworldemissions
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wikipedia pictures
10yearlifetimeimpliesaproductioncapacityof10millionperyear
Shanghaiharborprocesses30millionfullcontainersayear
Worldcarandlighttruckproduction:80millionperyear
ProductionCapacity
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Lowcostcomeswithexperience
pricedroppedfortyfold
pricedroppedhundredfold
costoflightingfell7000foldinthe20th
century
WikipediapicturesIngredientcostsarealreadysmall– smallunits:lowstartupcost
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
APS (low tech, first-of-a-kind)
GRT (first-of-a-kind)
Practical interest
PertonCO2
Raw material and energy limit (frictionless cost)
ThePoweroftheLearningCurve