Our common future under climate change, July 9, 2015, Paris

Innovative adaptation of pastoral system to climate change:

- Case study in Mongolia –

Masataka Watanabe (Chuo University) Togtokh Chuluun (Natinal University of Mongolia)

Satoko Watanabe (Chuo University)

Annual mean temperature,1940-2013

Annual mean precipitation,1940-2013

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tem

pera

ture

change,

0C

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

RCP2.6

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tem

pera

ture

ch

an

ge

, 0C

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

RCP2.6

Future temperature change in a) Winter and b) summer

Current Permafrost in 2000

Permafrost in 2100 under RCP8.5

a) b)

Future change in permafrost distribution (2100)

Climate Change in Mongolia

Permafrost melting, 1970-2013

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014

Millio

n h

ead

s

9.6 million heads decreased

(1999-2002)

11.3 million heads decreased

(2009-2010)

Livestock numbers from 1958 to 2014

Market economy Socialist planned economy

Climate Change and Adaptation in Mongolia

Control of livestock number within carrying capacity

Conservation of pastureland

Pastureland degradation

Exceed Carrying Capacity

Climate Change

Permafrost melting

Pastureland degradation

Shift to market economy since 1990

Extreme weather in winter

Short term : Zud & Livestock Loss

Food shortage in spring/summer, Damage to livestock economy

Needs for ecosystem-based adaptation

Drought in summer

livestock number increase Goat fraction increase

Long term: Water resources

degradation

Needs for adaptation infrastructure in Mongolia weather monitoring and zud prediction management of pastureland/livestock number meat processing planning, frozen meat storage supply chain, ecological branding

Key points of intensive livestock production facility Self-sustaining distributed social infrastructure by using

renewable energy Weather monitoring, zud prediction, network of

rangeland/livestock number management by using ICT Effective supply chain network consist of large scale freezers

(collection center) and container-type freezers (rural area)

Adaptation

Mitigation Development

Low carbon Society

Co-benefit

Sustainable Green

Development

Climate resilient society

Goal : Sustainable Green Development in Mongolia

Development of freezer storage system with renewable energy

Advanced zud prediction

Early warning through mobile telephone and early harvest

CO2 reduction by freezer storage system with renewable energy

Permafrost melting, water cycle change and grassland degradation due to climate change

Evaluation of CO2 sequestration by grassland conservation through carrying capacity

Management of storage system as new commons

Economic evaluation and planning for adaptation and

development

Freezer system with renewable energy

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%lo

ss

Buutsagaan

ΔL_loss(Bayanhongor)

ΔL_loss(Som)

new index

Index

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%lo

ss

Zag

ΔL_loss(Bayanhongor)

ΔL_loss(Som)

new index

index

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%lo

ss

Khüreemaral

ΔL_loss(Bayanhongor)

ΔL_loss(Som)

New Index

Index

Vulnerability index = F(Ts, Ps, Tw, Pw, Forage, Hay harvest)

Vulnerability index and loss in 3 soums in Bayanhogor

Zud Early Warning System

8

World weather forecast

・Automatic processing softwares

- Cutout of region and

meteorological elements, and

Downscaling

- Calculation of Zud Index

- Estimation of Vulnerability

- Visualization

storage

Operation System in Mongolia

・9month global forecast

・4 times every day

(in the case of CFSv2 by

NCEP/NOAA)

Data acquisition

system with internet

Early warning through National

Emergency Management Agency

↑↑↑

･Vegetation growth

･Livestock population

･Livestock intake

“Western” models Farms/ranches

Rich herders (10%) “Hot ails”

Win-Win Farmer’s association

Community based natural resource management

Strengthening of traditional pastoral networks

Tragedy of Commons Weak cooperation

Landscape fragmentation Land degradation

Poverty trap (40%)

Traditional System Strong cooperation

Cultural landscape use Ecosystem state is good

Subsistence

Cooperation Use of cultural landscape/State of ecosystem services

Weak/

Low

Strong/

High

We

ll-b

ein

g

Po

o

r R

ich

Loss of adaptive capacity to climate variability

Su

sta

ina

ble

tra

ns

form

ati

on

wit

h IC

T &

re

ne

wa

ble

en

erg

y

How to achieve sustainable green development under maintaining carrying capacity in Mongolia ?

storage system as new commons

storage system as private property

Challenges Freezer technology using renewable energy Economical incentive for carrying capacity by ecological branding Taxation over critical number of livestock per capita (ca. 50 heads) Win-win scenario Sustainable Green Development which satisfy adaptation, mitigation and development aspect simultaneously