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Waste. What future do we want? FOR THE NSW WASTE SECTOR

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SHALISE LEESFIELD School student and EPA grant recipient

4 Executive Summary

7 Introduction

9 Methodology

12 Megatrends

15 Megashocks

20 Scenarios

50 Megatrend details

61 Summary

63 References

66 Appendices

This report was prepared by Arup for the NSW Environmental Protection Authority.

About Foresight

Foresight is Arup’s internal think-tank

and consultancy which focuses on

the future of the built environment and

society at large. We help organisations

understand trends, explore new ideas,

and radically rethink the future of their

businesses. We developed the concept

of ‘foresight by design’, which uses

innovative design tools and techniques

in order to bring new ideas to life, and to

engage all stakeholders in meaningful

conversations about change.

© Shalise Leesfield

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Public interest is high and there are many international case studies of countries creating new jobs and businesses, improving waste management and reducing their impact on the environment by adopting circular economy principles.

Although some pockets of excellence can be found for waste initiatives in NSW, a clear and ambitious strategy is required for NSW to create change and embed circular economy thinking throughout the waste industry. This report aims to answer the question.

Waste. What future do we want?

A strategic foresight approach has been taken for assessing megatrends that are shaping the future of the waste industry in NSW.

Five key themes emerged from the megatrends review:

Convenience Lifestyles: Demographic changes are shifting customer expectations towards more convenient and digital solutions with affluence increasing waste streams.

Technological Evolutions: digital adoption and renewable energy reshape consumption and production and generate new and emerging waste streams.

Consumption and growth: the adoption of circular economy principles could lead to new jobs and markets; however legacy costs from existing landfill pose a big risk to the waste industry.

Planetary health: resource use and ecosystem pollution have major effects on planetary health, while climate change will present huge risks for the waste industry.

Policy and regulation: Land use planning and clear policies and strategies can shape a better waste management system.

Whereas megatrends are slow-moving large impact effects megashocks are less likely but high impact events that also need to be considered.

The megashocks that were considered to be prevalent for the NSW waste industry included:

• Critical infrastructure breakdown

• Energy grid crisis

• Large-scale data breach

• Pandemic – mad cow disease

• Hazardous waste

• China Sword lifted

A foresight analysis method known as the morphological box approach was used to develop a series of plausible and extreme scenarios.

Scenarios

The scenarios provide potential stories of the future and are used to assess risks and implications for the 20-year waste strategy. Although ‘circular success’ and ‘down in the dumps’ represent best and worst cases they are all representative of current situations around the world. The other scenarios provide different ideas about how the waste industry might evolve.

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Executive SummaryThe opportunity to create change in the NSW waste industry has never been greater.

Circular Success

Circular economy thinking is embedded in every aspect of NSW commerce and daily life. Material prevention, reuse, recycling and separation has become business as usual. Resources and investment are flowing freely, and ‘waste’ is a word of the past.

Service monopoly A service monopoly reigns providing a data-driven offering of all services to customers: energy, water, transport, waste management, food supply and other items. Efficiency and convenience are high; however, risks of uncompetitive behaviour or cybersecurity need to be managed.

Down in the dumps Battered by economic shocks and policy indecision, Australia’s belief in recycling has failed. Only high-value materials are extracted for recycling with the rest of the residual waste being sent to landfill. Landfills fill up, waste management is expensive, and health risks emerge.

Road to recovery Strong markets and consistent policy creates confidence within industry to invest in waste management solutions. High technology waste sorting extracts most types of recyclable material and energy from waste facilities are used to reduce space in landfill.

Wasted opportunity

The opportunity to embrace the circular economy has been met with caution. Although the benefits have been demonstrated in other jurisdictions the pace of change is slow, and governments are reluctant to push for major changes in waste management practices.

Best intentionsHigh engagement sparks community concern which drives widespread behaviour change. Single-use plastic has been banned, and communities sort and recycle their waste including organics. Unfortunately, without the support of coordinated infrastructure, the impact is limited.

Scenarios

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Introduction

NSW EPA in collaboration with Infrastructure NSW is exploring the foundation and opportunity of delivering a 20-year Waste and Resource Recovery Strategy for NSW.

The strategy would lead the discussion, create the vision and implement the change and direction required to support a holistic and sustainable resource recovery industry, reduce waste to landfill for NSW, and enable waste management to be a real contributor to the State’s circular economy aspirations over the next 20-years.

FORESIGHT STUDYTo help inform a 20-year Waste and Resource Recovery Strategy, Arup was commissioned by NSW EPA to explore the future potential of the industry in NSW. This strategic foresight study identifies both global and local megatrends and megashocks to develop a set of future scenarios. Implications of these scenarios are then assessed and recommendations provided.

This study outlines six possible future scenarios.

It identifies both opportunities and challenges for the waste sector.

This study should help drive the development of a robust and innovative long-term waste strategy.

THE CHALLENGEThere has been no substantial change in landfill diversion rates in NSW over the last ten years, and waste volumes are increasing at a higher pace than population growth, even despite NSW having the highest landfill levy of any State in Australia. Specifically, the waste sector in NSW currently faces challenges ranging from interstate waste movements to public perception, restricted export markets and the threat of climate change effects on existing infrastructure.

THE OPPORTUNITYThis transformational project has extraordinary potential for NSW EPA to provide pioneering leadership to the waste sector, not just in NSW but further afield.

MEGASHOCKS & MEGATRENDS

IMPLICATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

Initial research and policy review

Horizon scanning and trend research Expert engagement

Key factors Projections

Scenario formulation

Scenario testing Implications and

insights for the waste sector

INCPEPTION SCENARIOS DEVELOPM

ENT

It aims to create a smarter future for NSW, one that will support greater quality of life for its citizens and prevent further degradation to the environment.

Figure 1: Project phases.

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Methodology

Arup has used a morphological box approach which is a structured process for scenario development.

Several possible projections for each key factor are then defined. A combination of projections is then used to create the basis for a scenario. Once several consistent scenarios are chosen, they are detailed in order to create a set of plausible and mutually exclusive stories that spark conversation about potential future pathways (Figure 1). For more information on the scenario development process see the Appendix.

MEGASHOCKS AND MEGATRENDS

PROJECTIONS DEVELOPMENT

SCENARIOS

How will the future develop?

What are plausible options for each key factor?

What influences the future of waste in NSW?

What are consistent combinations of projections?

What are the main factors of influence?

KEY FACTOR ANALYSIS

SELECTION OF DRAFT SCENARIOS

socialtechnological

economic

envir

onm

enta

lpo

litical

waste collection

producer responsibility

impact awareness

preventionurban leadership

resource depletion

emissions

persistant pollutants

resource intensity

irresponsib

le disp

osal

gree

n pr

ocur

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tle

gacy

cos

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pay-

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ou-t

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personal excesscircular econom

y

food surplussh

aringclo

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ion

elec

troni

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aste

planned obsolescence

industrial symbiosis

waste-to-energy

biological processing

upcycling

STRATEGY 1

STRATEGY 2

STRATEGY 3

Figure 2: Project delivery process.

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Horizon scanning and megatrends Horizon scanning is the systematic identification, analysis and communication of signals of change relevant to a specific focal area.

It is used to detect the trends and issues shaping the future. A trend can be defined as the tendency of a subject to move in a specified direction over time.

A horizon scanning process was used to find the key trends including a scan of the megatrends as well as the weak signals.

Megatrends are long-term evolutionary developments or patterns of change that are far-reaching, sustained and relatively certain. They are not confined to specific geographies or sectors.

Weak signals are instances indicative of a possible change in direction or emergent trend. They can provide advanced intelligence or ‘hints’ about potential future trends. New emergent technologies are often classed as weak signals as they might scale and influence a range of trends, even while their true potential and impact remain highly uncertain. These weak signals are presented as case studies in this report.

Arup’s global team has developed a global set of trend cards highlighting critical international trends in the waste industry. These are known as the Drivers of Change cards and are categorised using the STEEP (social, technological, economic, environmental, political) framework. These cards were used as the starting point for investigation and were used in a workshop with NSW EPA.

Responses provided by NSW EPA helped identify what they thought were the key trends driving change in the NSW waste sector, as well as the relevant weak signals.

Desktop research covered a broad range of reports as well as data sets from NSW. Interviews with waste experts as well as discussion and synthesis of themes and ideas assisted in developing the 20 top megatrends (Figure 3).

A horizon scanning process was used to find the key trends including a scan of the megatrends as well as the weak signals.

FUTURE CONTEXT

MEGATRENDSlong-term evolutionary changes

WEAK SIGNALSemerging case studies and exemplars

Figure 3: The future context can be understood through the identification of megatrends and weak signals.

socialtechnological

economic

envir

onm

enta

lpo

litical

waste collection

producer responsibility

impact awareness

preventionurban leadership

resource depletion

emissions

persistant pollutants

resource intensity

irresponsib

le disp

osal

gree

n pr

ocur

emen

tle

gacy

cos

ts

pay-

as-y

ou-t

hrow

personal excesscircular econom

y

food surplussh

aringclo

thinginfo

rmal

col

lect

ion

elec

troni

c w

aste

planned obsolescence

industrial symbiosis

waste-to-energy

biological processing

upcycling

convenience lifestyles technological evolutions

consumption and growth

plane

tary

hea

lth

polic

y a

nd regulation

dem

ogra

phic

cha

nges

afflu

ence

consum

er aw

arene

ss

digital lifestyl

es

alternate energy sources

waste technologysmart infrastructure

automation and AI

circular economy

globalised waste trade

ecosys

tem pollu

tionresource depletion

extreme weather

environmental resilience

environmental policy

governanceland use conflicts

political uncertainty

lega

cy c

osts

evol

ving

indu

strie

s

WorkshopsLiterature reviewInterviewsConsultationSynthesising

Figure 4: Megatrend identification process. Drivers of change trends on the left. Finalised set of trends on the right.

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CONVENIENCE LIFESTYLES Population growth and demographic changes are shifting customer expectations and consumer patterns. The dominance of millennials and digital natives over the next 20-years, as well as the exponentially growing digital world, will see opportunities to engage with customers on waste issues. Increasing population and affluence can increase household waste generation, especially food, textile and electronic wastes.

TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONS Technology advances bring great potential as well as significant challenges. Trends of accelerating digital adoption and renewable energy transitions are reshaping many aspects of consumption and production and generating new and emerging waste streams. At the same time, technological advances in tracking, sorting and processing materials create opportunities to capture greater value from waste.

CONSUMPTION AND GROWTHAdoption of circular economy principles and uncertainty of globalised trade is shaping the way future waste infrastructure is developed and operated on a system-wide scale. Legacy costs from mismanaged landfill, especially in the context of more extreme weather are of increasing concern. Meanwhile, evolving industries such as ag tech and renewables can make significant changes to the generation of different waste types.

PLANETARY HEALTH Issues relating to ecosystem pollution, resource depletion and overall planetary health are becoming more evident. The way we dispose of our waste and the value we place on natural resources is set to shift as we start to recognise the consequences of consumption. As climate change causes more frequent and severe

weather events, we need to adapt to our changing environmental contexts and needs to supply for future economic growth and waste generation.

POLICY AND REGULATIONLand use designations and building design regulations limit the efficiency and connectivity of waste infrastructure and are based on the perception of waste as an essential service. Environmental policy is driven by global commitments on climate change, and plastic waste will force a change in waste management and consumption of resources. On the other hand, political uncertainty and lack of leadership reduces confidence in investment decisions and impacts the necessary action on big issues.

Megatrends

SALLY FLANNERY, Artist, Northern Rivers NSW

convenience lifestyles technological evolutions

consumption and growth

plane

tary

hea

lth

polic

y a

nd regulation

dem

ogra

phic

cha

nges

afflu

ence

consum

er aw

arene

ss

digital lifestyl

es

alternate energy sources

waste technologysmart infrastructure

automation and AI

circular economy

globalised waste trade

ecosys

tem pollu

tionresource depletion

extreme weather

environmental resilience

environmental policy

governanceland use conflicts

political uncertainty

lega

cy c

osts

evol

ving

indu

strie

s

p50

SENSITIVE: NSW Government

For the details on the megatrends see page

Figure 5: Final set of megatrends. Twenty in total under five categories.

© Sally Flannery

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When we look at trends or megatrends, we explore what is already happening and then use these to ideate about what we would expect to happen.

When we look at trends or megatrends, we explore what is already happening and then use these to ideate about what we would expect to happen. This is an important part of foresight as long-term thinking helps us prepare for and drive a preferred future.

Shocks or disruptions are much harder to foresee and can have a much greater impact on change. Megashocks are events that are considered highly unlikely (until they happen) and have a very high impact – usually on more than one area, geography or industry. Considering the less likely is very important when preparing for the future and preparing for these impacts can make the system more robust and resilient.

One obvious example of a shock that has created significant disruption in the waste management industry is China’s National Sword policy. Whilst there were some early warning signs, notably with the 2013 policy ‘Operation Green Fence’ the impact on the recycling market across Australia and indeed globally, has been fundamental. However, an analysis of the plastics recycling industry should have identified the heavy dependency on overseas facilities and might have helped develop local markets for such a disruption.

Interestingly, some things that traditionally would have been classified as shocks, such as extreme weather, are becoming considerably more frequent and are now considered to be high likelihood and therefore classed as trends. On some occasions, however, an extreme weather event might have an unpredictable knock-on effect of causing an unlikely event and therefore be considered as a shock.

These megashocks will form part of the scenarios development process as they are used to stress-test the scenarios and ideate around how resilient the scenario would be to the effect of the shock. The outcome of this process is used to assess implications and provide recommendations to inform the strategy.

An assessment of megashocks can help ensure that actions taken are suitable to deal with the potential consequences and that the scale of action is proportional.

To scan the spectrum of shocks we have used the Arup-designed ‘Drivers of Change’ STEEP framework. This is not an exhaustive list but rather a range of potential options.

We have identified six megashocks that are relevant to the NSW waste sector, including:

• Critical infrastructure breakdown

• Energy grid crisis

• Large-scale data breach

• Pandemic – mad cow disease

• Hazardous waste

• China Sword lifted

Accompanying each megashock description are supporting examples and trends that demonstrate that these types of shocks can occur, even if at smaller scales.

If smaller scale events can occur in one location, while unlikely, it is possible that these types of events can occur simultaneously in different locations, resulting in far-reaching consequences.

Megashocks

“A megashock is a major and sudden hard-to-predict event that causes far-reaching change to an industry sector, social group or geographic region.” [1]

PANDEMIC – MAD COW DISEASENSW is brought to a standstill when eight cases of mad-cow disease are identified across several locations. This disease spreads quickly through livestock, and suspected cases in humans are identified. The only way to deal with the problem is to act quickly. The affected areas are isolated, and large quantities of cattle are slaughtered. The NSW waste industry is unable to cope with the volume of slaughtered animals, and the transport of the carcases is a huge strain on the transport network.

Fear spreads across the consumer market. Vegetarianism and veganism become increasingly popular, and thus fruit and vegetable supply is unable to meet demand. Increased awareness of diet and the environment results in increased local farming and composting.

Supporting motivationMad cow disease appeared in the UK in the late 1980s. By the early 1990s, links to the deadly disease in humans were confirmed. By the time the epidemic ended, 100,000 cases were confirmed in cattle, and 4.4 million animals had been slaughtered to halt the spread of disease. [5]

In NSW 50,000 chickens were culled to prevent the spread of bird flu at an egg farm in the Lower Hunter Region. [6]

HAZARDOUS WASTEA discovery is made that the combination of a metal and chemical that is intermittently found in electronic products is highly toxic and potentially combustible. Several items containing each of these products are regularly disposed of each year. The details of where these products go when disposed of, is limited. Some products have gone to landfill in Australia. Some of these landfills are well managed, but there is little known about how the distribution of the hazardous materials and the risk is too high to leave in place. Some of this waste has been recycled as e-waste, and the location of components has been dispersed. To make matters worse, large quantities of this waste has been exported to countries with varied levels of regulation for dumping sites and the movement trail practically untraceable.

Supporting motivationUp until the mid-1980s, asbestos was a cheap, versatile insulating material, and was widely used in Australian homes and buildings. However, links were discovered between asbestos exposure and life-threatening illness. By the late 1980s, some removal programs had begun, and in 2003, Australia finally banned all asbestos use. The hazardous waste legacy continues, requiring ongoing education, training, removal services and disposal regulations to protect human health [7]. More recently, PFAS substances are emerging as a persistent, bioaccumulating and potentially dangerous legacy of past chemical use.

The ‘Australian Inventory of Chemical Substances’ records that in 2018, 61.4% of chemicals in Australia have not yet been assessed by the ‘National Industrial Chemical Assessment and Notification Scheme’ for their risks to the environment or human health. [8]

CHINA SWORD LIFTEDThe China Sword policy created havoc in Australia with major disruption to recycling management. Many centres were unable to economically manage recyclables which saw some recycling being diverted directly to landfill. To deal with this disruption, government incentivised industry with its $47 million support package funded by the ‘Waste Less Recycle More’ initiative [9]. This restored faith with customers and they continued to sort their recycling and urban industries were set up and increased the demand for recyclate. The regional recycling industry worked well for a number of years until China revokes its restrictions on the import of contaminated recycling. They offer a good price for recycling driving export of curbside collected recycling. This devastates the local industries by removing feedstock for recycling plants and results in limited recyclate to feed into the new urban industrial processes.

Supporting motivationIn 2013, China heavily enforced a policy called Green Fence which restricted imports of the types of plastic waste it would accept. The aim was to reduce contamination. Prior to the restrictions around a third of the European Union’s, and half of America’s plastic waste, was going to China. After around a year after this was being heavily enforced, this was relaxed sending meaning that exports were increased again. This devasted local recycling industries that has been set up to combat the ban.

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE BREAKDOWN On the 8th March 2029, a magnitude seven earthquake hits south of Sydney causing significant infrastructure damage. Aging infrastructure has had minimal maintenance over its life, and the long-term effects of climate change such as frequent storms, floods and high temperatures have left many pieces of infrastructure very vulnerable to damage. The earthquake causes significant damage to the train line which is used to transport waste from Sydney to the Woodlawn landfill.

Earthquake damage throughout Sydney is widespread creating significant quantities of waste. Sydney needs to divert not only the usual 750,000 tonnes per annum of waste to Woodlawn landfill but also the additional waste caused by the earthquake. The train line is compromised in multiple ways and the time required to get it operational again will be many months, if not longer.

Supporting motivationIn 1989, thirteen people died after an earthquake struck Newcastle, with the epicentre less than 15km from the CBD. The modest magnitude 5.6 quake caught the city unprepared, causing widespread damage. Over 300 buildings were demolished. Australia’s strongest recorded earthquake occurred in Tennant Creek in 1988, and was one thousand times stronger, damaging the hospital and a natural gas pipeline. [2]

ENERGY GRID CRISISIt’s January 2035 and weather records have been smashed with the hottest month ever in Sydney. With maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C most days and minimums regularly above 30°C air conditioners are running round the clock. The aging fossil fuel energy infrastructure is struggling to meet demands. Solar and distributed battery storage is approaching 20% of the state’s generation capacity, but the distribution network is poorly adapted to take advantage of the shift. Damage to distribution infrastructure caused by extreme weather initiates cascading failures within the grid, leaving millions of people without power, sometimes for days at a time.

Waste collection is operated entirely by electric vehicles, and intermittent electricity is affecting the frequency of waste collection. Overflowing waste bins combined with extreme temperatures are causing health impacts. In some instances, residents have started illegally dumping their waste in communal bins and underutilised areas which is further exacerbating the issue.

Supporting motivationIn 2003, extreme heat caused a high-voltage transmission line in Ohio to sag and touch nearby tree branches. This initial fault was followed by a series of equipment failures, leading to emergency shutdown of the electricity grid across 8 states. Over 50 million people were without power for over 24 hours, with thousands evacuating Manhattan on foot as transport infrastructure shut down.

In 2016, South Australia experienced a state-wide blackout during severe storms. Damaged transmission lines and sudden withdrawal of generation capacity caused instability and cascading failure of the electricity grid.

LARGE-SCALE DATA BREACHIn consultation about the 20-year waste strategy in NSW, the importance of good, reliable and accurate data is highlighted as key to truly understanding the waste industry. This leads to the development of a comprehensive data strategy. Complex sensors and data systems are installed to track and monitor multiple waste streams, transfers and treatments. Sensors and devices allow the system to optimise increasingly complex logistics networks, meet increasingly detailed regulatory reporting requirements and incentivise better waste separation by customers.

A cyber hacker manages to break into the waste system. Customer data is compromised, shaking public confidence in the system. A separate attack targets automated sensing and tracking functions through a vulnerability in internet-connected sensors, causing widespread disruption of waste collection and processing.

Supporting motivationCyber-attacks ranked in the five most likely risks to global stability for the second year in a row, according to the World Economic Forum’s 2019 global risk report [3]. In 2018, major data breaches targeted personal information, affecting 1.5 million records in the Singapore Government’s health database and 30 million Facebook users. [4] An increasing focus on personalised services and customer-centric business models is exposing more industries to these attacks.

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Megashocks

Megashocks

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Scenario development starts with an analysis of the factors driving change.

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Juha Keski-Frantti and Trevor Nichols, Snowy Monaro Regional Council, NSW© N

SW EPA

A set of five key factors were identified as being the most likely to influence the future state of the NSW waste sector over the next 20-years.

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Scenarios

Key factors are defined as the driving forces and critical uncertainties that will shape the future of the defined context.

The scenarios below provide a range of plausible alternatives on what our world might look like in the decades to come. While the core of each scenario is different, they share some common assumptions about the future state of the world. These so-called ‘givens’ provide the framework on which the differences between the various scenarios are based. Such ‘givens’ can be a useful tool to reduce complexity and to underline that scenarios do not assume major wild cards such as a world war or a global pandemic.

Projections online potential changes over time and describe the plausible alternatives

for the development of each key factor. The projections are based on two variables that define each key factor. These variables can be represented on two axes (see right), where each quadrant represents a projection.

The morphological box (below) attaches the four possible projections for each key factor and gives a visual representation of the variations in scenario characteristics.

Scenarios are constructed from the morphological box by selecting unique combinations of projections to represent the range of possible outcome.

axis 2

axis 1

Projection 1 Projection 2

Projection 4 Projection 3

Consumer Patterns

Infrastructure planning

Environmental risks

Market forces

Leadership and policy

Low engagement, High convenience

Low connectivity, High social license

to operate

Low risk, High preparedness

Low resource value, High market dynamism

Adaptive policy, High policy certainty

High engagement, High convenience

High connectivity, High social license

to operate

High risk, High preparedness

High resource value, High market dynamism

Prescriptive policy, High policy certainty

High engagement, Low convenience

High connectivity, Low social license

to operate

High risk, Low preparedness

High resource value, Low market dynamism

Prescriptive policy, Low policy certainty

Low engagement, Low convenience

Low connectivity, Low social license

to operate

Low risk, Low preparedness

Low resource value, Low market dynamism

Adaptive policy, Low policy certainty

Consumer patterns

Consumer patterns defines the convenience of waste separation in the scenario, as well as how engaged consumers and the community are with waste issues. Consumer engagement covers the willingness to adopt waste reduction behaviours and adoption of sharing economy platforms.

Infrastructure planningInfrastructure planning considers the social licence to operate for waste infrastructure relevant to recognition of waste as an essential service and land use conflicts. It also considers the level of connectivity for waste transport and material flows.

Environmental riskEnvironmental risk explores the uncertainty of the extent and impacts of extreme weather and legacy waste on both the environment and human health. It also defines the preparedness and resilience to deal with these risks for each scenario.

Market forces

Market forces define economic factors that influence profitability and attractiveness of resource recovery. It explores the value of resources with high resource value an indicator of increased resource recovery. Market dynamism refers to how changes in supply and demand impact stability of the waste market.

Leadership and policyLeadership and policy consider the differences in industry led versus government led waste project developments. It also considers how ambitious, aligned and stable the waste policies are in the future scenario.

Figure 6: Key factors axes and projection quadrants.

Figure 7: Final morphological box with five key factors and four projections per key factor.

Avoid and reduce This refers to avoiding or reducing the generation of waste through unnecessary consumption. This can mean encouraging positive behaviours such as avoiding disposable single-use items; strategies to avoid wasting food; buying products with less packaging or selection of products that are recycled, recyclable, repairable, reusable or biodegradable.

ReuseWhen waste cannot be avoided, the next best thing is to allow it to be reused. Reuse refers to products or materials that can be reused without additional processing and limits energy and other resources required for a resource to be used again. Product donations or product leasing for household and industrial items are examples of reuse strategies.

Recycling Recycling retains materials in the economy, reducing the need for more virgin materials and waste absorption by the environment. As well as recycling metals, cardboard, glass and plastics, it also includes recycling nutrients back into the soil through composting.

Recover energyWhere materials cannot be easily recovered for recycling, energy recovery is the next preferred option. This involves using residual wastes as a feedstock for Energy from Waste plants, generating heat and energy to be fed back into the economy.

TreatSome materials cannot be fed back into the economy and may warrant treatment for them to be disposed of safely. This can involve chemical processing to stabilise them and minimise impacts on environmental or human health. This often includes hazardous wastes.

DisposeDispose is the least preferred option and contributes to landfill. Where residual wastes are not recovered for energy, the only option is to dispose of.

Avoid and reduce This refers to avoiding or reducing the generation of waste through unnecessary consumption. This can mean encouraging positive behaviours such as avoiding disposable single-use items; strategies to avoid wasting food; buying products with less packaging or selection of products that are recycled, recyclable, repairable, reusable or biodegradable.

ReuseWhen waste cannot be avoided, the next best thing is to allow it to be reused.Reuse refers to products or materials that can be reused without additionalprocessing and limits energy and other resources required for a resource to be used again. Product donations or product leasing for household and industrial items are examples of reuse strategies.

Recycling Recycling retains materials in the economy, reducing the need for more virginmaterials and waste absorption by the environment. As well as recycling metals, cardboard, glass and plastics, it also includes recycling nutrients back into the soil through composting.

Recover energyWhere materials cannot be easily recovered for recycling, energy recovery is the next preferred option. This involves using residual wastes as a feedstock for Energy from Waste plants, generating heat and energy to be fed back into the economy.

TreatSome materials cannot be fed back into the economy and may warrant treatment for them to be disposed of safely. This can involve chemical processing to stabilise them and minimise impacts on environmental or human health. This often includes hazardous wastes.

DisposeDispose is the least preferred option and contributes to landfill. Where residual wastes are not recovered for energy, the only option is to dispose of.

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Circular Success

Service monopoly

Down in the dumps

Circular economy thinking is embedded in every aspect of NSW commerce and daily life. Material prevention, reuse, recycling and separation has become business as usual. Resources and investment are flowing freely, and ‘waste’ is a word of the past.

A service monopoly reigns providing a data driven offering of all services to customers: energy, water, transport, waste management, food supply and other items. Efficiency and convenience are high; however, risks of uncompetitive behaviour or cyber security need to be managed.

Battered by economic shocks and policy indecision, Australia’s belief in recycling has failed. Only high value materials are extracted for recycling with the rest of the residual waste being sent to landfill. Landfills fill up, waste management is expensive, and health risks emerge.

Road to recovery Strong markets and consistent policy creates confidence within industry to invest in waste management solutions. High technology waste sorting extracts most types of recyclable material and energy from waste facilities are used to reduce space in landfill.

Wasted opportunity The opportunity to embrace the circular economy has been met withcaution. Although the benefits have been demonstrated in other jurisdictions the pace of change is slow and governments are reluctant to push for major changes in waste management practices.

Best intentions High engagement sparks community concern which drives widespread behaviour change. Single use plastic has been banned, and communities sort and recycle their waste including organics. Unfortunately, without the support of coordinated infrastructure, the impact is limited.

Scenarios

For this exercise, we have used the waste hierarchy adopted in the NSW EPA WARR Strategy 2014-2021. At the top of the hierarchy is the most preferred option, avoidance and reduction of waste, and at the bottom is the least preferred option, disposing to landfill.

Each scenario is accompanied by a waste hierarchy to visually represent the reliance of approach within the scenario. Scenarios that adopt approaches higher up the hierarchy have better resource management outcomes and are closer to adopting a circular economy model.

Scenarios that adopt approaches lower on the hierarchy are not extracting the most out of resources, with large volumes of waste going to energy recovery or landfill.

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Scenarios

Waste hierarchy

The waste hierarchy provides an order of preference for waste and resource management approaches.

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In 2020 the NSW waste strategy provides clear guidance and assurance for the waste industry. In addition, the government embeds the circular economy model across all sectors to influence the whole supply chain.

A WILLING COMMUNITY High-profile champions and a new popular media series spark shock and outrage and create a strong desire for change. It is an opportune time to show leadership as waste issues gain momentum in the public sphere.

Residents diligently separate organic waste which is collected and processed at large central biogas and composting facilities. Backed by community support, the NSW government moves to ban single-use plastics as well as introduce increased landfill levies and a larger suite of landfill bans to encourage materials to be recovered.

SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS CASEResource values are high and global trade is restricted, driving a strong market for resource recovery from landfill. As customer expectations around sustainability continue to grow, businesses see an ethical branding opportunity to participate in product take-back schemes. Products delivered to consumers are more durable, reusable and repairable and are returnable at end of life.

There is a proliferation of online platforms to support sharing of household items. Additionally, larger companies provide subscription models for leasing and repair of larger household items. Initial uptake is high and people soon form new habits.

TAPPING INTO A RESOURCEMany regions can see an opportunity to take advantage of the growth in manufacturing to attract new businesses and industries which will accept recovered resources.

Landfill restrictions and cost of resources drive the construction industry to a more circular model. Blockchain material passports, as well as the internet of things, enable real-time material registers for managing repurposed materials. Standardisation of parts and design for disassembly all become standard practice in the industry.

The increased value of resources means businesses begin to profit from buying, selling and using recovered resources and increasingly complex logistics systems develop. Traditional waste management companies diversify services to offer on-demand transport of specific materials. Despite innovations in automated vehicles and logistic data analytics, transport infrastructure is under increasing pressure, and well-connected precincts become sought-after as resource-recovery hubs. Landfill mining robots become a competitive commercial operation, recovering now-scarce metals.

Scenarios

Circular successCircular economy thinking is embedded in every aspect of NSW commerce and daily life. Material prevention, reuse, recycling and separation has become business as usual. Resources and investment are flowing freely, and ‘waste’ is a word of the past.

KEY FACTORS

TIMELINE

High engagement, High convenience

High connectivity, High social licence to operate

Low risk, High preparedness

High resource value, Low market dynamism

Adaptive policy low, High policy certainty

Single use plastics ban introduced due to public

demand

Blockchain technology improves waste material tracking

Complex waste logistics systems are developed

Sharing schemes for household items and utility subscription

models emerge

Landfill mining becomes commercially competitive

Many businesses reach goal of becoming 100% circular

2019 2029 2039

Circular success

RISKS In this high functioning circular economy scenario risks can occur when balanced materials flows are disrupted for example:

1. Residents becoming complacentcausing increased contamination inrecycling and compost collections.

2. Disaster waste created by extremeweather events cannot be recycledand puts unexpected pressureon the few remaining landfills.

3. Automated waste systemat risk of cyber attack

IMPLICATIONS This scenario is aspirational and demonstrates how adaptive but certain policy can drive a move towards a circular economy. Key implications on the 20 year waste strategy are as follows:

• Waste generation decreases across all streams becauseof this scenario and recovery rates increase.

• The competitiveness of the waste market is increased as there is less wasteproduced. Waste management organisations diversify into supply chain logistics.

• Consumers are more considerate about producing waste and purchasing behavioursdemand products that are aligned with circular economy principles.

• Technology and innovation advance to be able to recover and recyclemore products and reduce waste in all areas. Innovative ideas are used tomonitor material and resource flows to match supply and demand.

• Regulation and compliance will be required for hazardous waste streams.Increased recovery results in material by-products being considered as valuableresources rather than waste. This reduces the amount of regulation required.

Consumer patterns

Infrastructure planning

Environmental risk

Market forces

Leadership and policy

Single use plastics are eliminated and the sharing economy, product stewardship and good recycling practices drive a highly circular economy.

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1. Encouraging circular purchasing

2. The development of Reburg, a virtualcircular city that illustrates circular ideas

3. Advice on running a circular business [3]

For more information see: https://vlaanderen-circulair.be/en/about-us

NETHERLANDSA government-wide programme for the circular economy in the Netherlands is targeting 2050 for full adoption.

This vision is to be realised with a range of stakeholders – ranging from local governments to social partners and citizens – targeting an interim objective of reducing primary raw material consumption by 50% by 2030.

It is believed that a circular economy will be a necessity in the Netherlands due to the congruence of three developments towards 2050: explosive demand for materials, dependency on other countries, and interconnectivity with the climate (CO

2 Emissions).

In their transition to a circular economy, they have set strategic goals that will transform the way they use raw materials.

These goals include:

1. Raw materials in existing supply chainsto be utilised in a high-quality manner.

2. In cases where raw materials areneeded, fossil-based, critical andnon-sustainably produced rawmaterials are to be replaced bysustainably produced, renewable, andgenerally available raw materials.

3. Products and materials will be designedin such a way that they can be reusedwith a minimum loss of value andwithout harmful emissions enteringthe environment. They will alsopromote new consumption habits.

As these goals are achieved, the way material streams are used and organised in the Netherlands economy will radically change over time. [13]

Currently the Netherlands landfills 2-3% of its waste every year. Essentially only wastes for which no recycling or incineration option exist, are landfilled. A landfill tax was introduced in 1996 and gradually increased until it was abolished in 2012. This tax played a very important role in achieving the low landfill rates the Netherlands has today. It was considered no longer necessary when landfill rates fell so low.

Some small amounts of waste will continue to require landfill into the future, only if chosen as a sink for hazardous substances. [14]

ZERO WASTE SCOTLAND

Zero Waste Scotland are an organisation working to create a society where resources are valued, and nothing is wasted.

Their mission is to enable change from gathering evidence and informing policy, to motivating behaviour change in individuals and organisations through their programmes. Their work has contributed to annual savings of 990,000 tonnes of carbon emissions.

Some of their programmes include:

• Food waste reduction methods saving£92 million

• The first UK announced drinks packagingreturn scheme

• Using Black Soldier Fly farming to turnorganics into feedstock for food systemsincluding salmon

• Materials brockage services

Their work is contributing to these Scottish Government targets and impacts:

• Recycling 70% of all waste by 2025

• Reducing waste by 15% by 2025

• Reducing food waste by 33% by 2025

• Meeting 50% of energy heat demandfor renewables by 2032

• Energy efficiency as a nationalinfrastructure priority

• Reducing Scotland’s greenhouse gasemissions by 66% by 2032

The organisation has led the way in helping Scotland embrace the potential of a more circular economy. As part of a greater collective with the Scottish Government and other agencies, the organisation helped Scotland be named a leading nation driving a circular economy in the annual Circulars Awards at the World Economic Forum in 2017.

Some of their other key achievements include:

Reducing household food waste by 7% between 2011 and 2015 and supporting local authorities so they now provide food waste recycling services to 80% of Scottish households.

Supporting the implementation of the 5p carrier bag charge which saw distribution of single-use bags fall by 80% in the first full year it came into effect (Zero Waste Scotland Limited, 2019).[10]

CIRCULAR FLANDERS

The Circular Flanders Initiative is a partnership of governments, companies, civil society and the community that takes collective action to help Flanders, a region in north Belgium, create a circular economy.

A team within OVAM (Public Waste Agency of Flanders) leads this initiative and ensures that all partners are doing their part to achieve their circular vision.

Seventeen partners across public and private sectors are working under this initiative in six core activities. These activities include networking with future partners, conducting research/knowledge sharing, aligning with policy, innovation, laboratory research and embedding principles of best practice. [11]

26 27

Circular successCase studies

Scenarios

Flanders is one of the best examples of embedding the circular economy by acknowledging the need to decouple their prosperity and wellbeing from resource use. They prioritise the design of products and services being waste-free and then also consider repairing, reusing and recycling with very minimal amounts of material being sent to landfill.

The initial estimates for Flanders of the economic benefit of the circular economy, report the creation of 27,000 jobs and a saving in material cost of up to 3.5% of GDP. [12] It was also concluded that more than 2/3rds of the gross domestic energy production in Flanders was attributable to materials management meaning that the circular economy also contributed substantially to Flander’s or Belgium’s climate objectives. [12]

Circular Flanders is one of seven priorities in the government’s 2050 vision. Key to its approach are three pillars which bridge and bring together different sectors:

© Circular Flanders / O

VAM

© Zero W

aste Scotland

28 29

the value of recycling have diminished. Although many councils continue to collect the bins, recycling rates have fallen, and contamination rates are high. Recyclers focus on easy to extract, higher-value materials for export, such as metals. The residual stream is sent to landfill.

LOSS OF CONFIDENCE Policy uncertainty and diminishing financial incentives in waste infrastructure lowers industry confidence. Additionally, continued competition from imported virgin materials limits the value of recovered materials. High rates of resource recovery are not economically viable. With no drive for recycling, industry pursues the cheapest option for disposing of waste and develops new landfills in decommissioned mines.

A high-profile biosecurity breach at one Australian organics recycling facility lowers confidence in the safety of compost. The agricultural market cannot accept the risks of using recycled organics and stick to synthetic fertilizers. Most existing organics services in regional areas continue to operate, but no new Food Organics and Garden Organics (FOGO) facilities are developed.

A STEP BACKWARDSRegional satellite centres have continued to experience above-average population

growth and are transitioning towards higher-density living. Some councils have ceased recycling services in the face of mounting costs. Councils lobby for a reduction in the landfill levy, arguing that it has become an inequitable tax, and is no longer driving new resource recovery developments. In 2030, the landfill levy is repealed for municipal, commercial and industrial waste. This results in interstate waste into NSW and increased rogue operators contributing

Faced with limited capacity to process or dispose of waste, councils accept transport options to access mega-landfills located in rural NSW. These facilities are increasingly remote from population centres, serving large populations from multiple council areas. The strong reliance on transport networks also creates vulnerabilities

and increasing transport cost increases bills for households and businesses.

EXTREME WEATHERNSW is experiencing the long-term effects of climate change, with increasing severity of extreme weather events. Flooding and fire damage to urban areas becomes more frequent, generating significant volumes of disaster waste.

Meanwhile, new research identifies significant health risks linked to a common building material used in most modern multi-storey buildings. During natural disasters, volunteers are potentially exposed to the new threat. Human health has become a focus of media and government, and the fate of waste fades from the public agenda.

Scenarios

Down in the dumpsBattered by economic shocks and policy indecision, Australia’s belief in recycling has failed. Only high-value materials are extracted for recycling with the rest of the residual waste being sent to landfill. Landfills fill up, waste management is expensive, and health risks emerge.

The efforts of NSW to strengthen the domestic recycling industry were slow, and another round of waste restriction from importing countries throws the sector back into turmoil. The community sentiments on

Down in the dumps

KEY FACTORS

TIMELINE

Low engagement, Low convenience

Low connectivity, Low social licence to operate

High risk, Low preparedness

Low resource value, High market dynamism

Prescriptive policy, Low policy certainty

RISKS The high reliance on landfill in this scenario leaves NSW open to many significant risks including:

1. Vulnerability to waste system transportremoval disruptions.

2. Legacy issues, with insufficient funds forthe ongoing management and remediationof landfills which are affected byincreasingly severe weather events.

3. Reliance on landfill results in restrictedexport markets for recovered material.

4. Potential health risks could emerge if toxicsubstances have been sent to landfill.

IMPLICATIONS This scenario demonstrates an outcome that is to be avoided. Although it may seem extreme, there are many places in the world where a similar story is a reality. The 20 year waste strategy has the potential to provide strong leadership for the NSW waste strategy in order to avoid these effects:

• Waste generation increases, and recycling and recovery rates significantly decline.

• Investment in the waste market concentrates on the expansion of landfill disposal as thecheapest waste management solution.

• Consumers are disengaged and don’t promote a reduction in waste. They also do not focus onsorting and recycling resulting in increased contamination rates.

• Reliance on transport to mega landfills promotes some innovation in transport systems. Healthrisks start to drive innovation in hazardous waste treatment.

• Regulation and compliance are concentrated on mega landfills and monitoring of wastes thatcould pose health risks.

Consumer patterns

Infrastructure planning

Environmental risk

Market forces

Leadership and policy

Western Parkland boom and high population density in Paramatta

Biosecurity breach at an organics recycling facility

lowers consumer confidence

Public and media attention focuses on human health

concerns

Transport is established to rural mega waste infrastructure

NSW is entirely reliant on waste exports and landfill

Costs of recycling services are deemed un-viable in some regions and waste

collection ceases.

2019 2029 2039

Down in the dumps

Waste is destined for landfill and only products with high material value, such as precious metals, are recycled.

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30 31

NEW YORK

New York City (NYC) generates around 14 million tonnes of waste every year. Almost all of this waste ends up in landfills, incinerators or in recycling facilities in other cities, states and countries.

NYC is part of a complex ecosystem of waste. For most of its inhabitants, the waste system works almost invisibly with mixed waste put to the roadside and disappearing the next day. Behind the scenes, waste systems function through a variety of stakeholders both public and private.

The waste itself follows a long journey before reaching its destination.

It generally follows this process:

1. Waste collection at theroadside by trucks.

2. Transfer stations where the wasteis sorted and put in containersfor long distance transport.

3. The destination being landfill,incineration or recyclingdepending on the waste typeand levels of contamination.

Waste responsibility is shared. The city oversees collection from residencies and institutions, while the private sector handles all commercial, construction and demolition waste. Most transfer stations, recycling facilities, landfills and incinerators are privately-owned and operated, or publicly owned but privately operated.

In 2014, over US$330 million was spent exporting NYC waste to other states landfills or waste to energy facilities. It is estimated that the NYC waste system generates 1.66 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year or the equivalent of almost 200 million gallons of gasoline consumed [15].

Community schemes are successful in NYC with initiatives such as community composting [16]. About 70% of all waste is handled by four of the city’s community districts. Due to the waste system being reliant on trucks for collection and export, these districts suffer from high levels of noise and air pollution [15].

NYC has also had to deal with other types of waste. For example, the World Trade Center Health Registry estimates that around 410,000 people were exposed to asbestos and other toxins after the 9/11 terrorist attack due to hazardous products in the building rubble. 1.5 million tons of debris was removed from the site [17].

Down in the dumpsCase studies

Scenarios

© iStock

32 33

In 2020 the NSW waste strategy provided clear guidance and assurance for the waste industry. A minimal but clear policy approach set a baseline for industry to lead NSW towards a more effective and prosperous resource recovery.

THE NEED FOR CHANGE China’s import restrictions are followed by several rounds of increasingly strict restrictions imposed by other importing countries. Trade restrictions increase the value of resource recovery; however, the circular economy concepts remain restricted to the waste industry.

High policy certainty from the government encourages investment in waste infrastructure. Industry seeks to capitalise on the favourable conditions by formulating market-led proposals. This creates a large diversity of technologies, including a mix of mature and innovative options. A high number of industry players creates a competitive market for materials and feedstock driving up the rate of recycling

DIVERSITY OF SOLUTIONSImprovements in optical sorting, data analytics and artificial intelligence are used to extract useful materials from the commingled recycling stream. Driven by high community engagement and crowdfunding, new technologies also address waste in the natural environment. Plastic is harvested from the oceans to assist in reducing environmental pollution. This product is sought after as one of the components used in road base.

Meanwhile, facilities for energy from waste (EfW) for mixed residual waste and refuse-derived fuel (RDF) are developed. Low-grade mixed plastics and paper that were previously exported are accepted at energy recovery and RDF facilities. Industry proponents advocate strongly for energy from waste as a reliable, on-shore solution to conserve landfill space. Increasing energy and gas prices prompt industries with high heat demands to advocate for EfW plants.

TRANSPORT EFFICIENCIESInfrastructure planning identifies and protects land for new waste infrastructure, preventing conflict with urban developments. Access

to transport routes is increasingly important, and new facilities rely on economies of scale to create a viable business model.

Transport and connectivity are increasingly easy and cost-effective, with innovations in automated vehicles increasing efficiency. Electric vehicles and charging infrastructure develop and become cost-competitive with internal combustion vehicles in line with other populous conurbations such as Los Angeles. The boom in electric vehicles results in an increase of lithium-ion battery waste generation.

SScenarios

Road to recoveryStrong markets and consistent policy creates confidence within industry to invest in waste management solutions. High technology waste sorting extracts most types of recyclable material and energy from waste facilities are used to reduce space in landfill.

Road to recovery

KEY FACTORS

TIMELINE

High engagement, Low convenience

Low connectivity, High social licence to operate

Low risk, Low preparedness

High resource value, Low market dynamism

Adaptive policy, High policy certainty

RISKS When the industry drives waste management potential risks include:

1. Stranded infrastructure throughpoor planning, i.e. energyfrom waste facilities

2. Social inequality with investmentconcentrated in high-densityareas where the returnsfor industry are higher

3. Running out of food grade plasticsthrough inability to recycleand restricted global trade

IMPLICATIONS This scenario shows how a less prescriptive policy direction can be used to create positive outcomes. The implications for the 20 year waste strategy include:

• An integrated strategy through all layers of the waste managementprocess will increase waste diversion from landfill.

• Investment in recycling and energy from waste infrastructure is competitive.

• Consumers are engaged and sort recycling better when suitable infrastructure is available.

• Advances in ways of driving recycling are a focus for technological initiatives.Better sorting facilities and more comprehensive collection schemes withsafeguards against contamination streams emerge it this scenario.

• Policy has provided certainty in order to promote investment; however, ithas not been prescriptive in the ways that targets must be achieved. Thishas promoted innovative approaches to waste management.

• Government and industry need to work together with appropriateincentives to promote further innovation.

Consumer patterns

Infrastructure planning

Environmental risk

Market forces

Leadership and policy

Government policy sets baseline for industry

leadership

Optical sorting boosts the recovery of high

value materials

Efficient waste to energy plants have been developed to address

the issues of mixed waste

Private industry invests heavily into energy from waste

EV Autonomous transport networks overtake internal

combustion transport

Floating devices capture ocean plastics which are then processed into road

construction material.

2019 2029 2039

Road to recovery

A waste management system that is industry driven and includes reuse of building material and energy from waste technology.

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CIRCULAR IKEA

IKEA is leading the industry charge to embrace the circular economy. Many of their leftover products and materials from manufacturing are repurposed to create brand new products.

Roughly 25 half-litre plastic bottles are used to create their matte black finish on their KUNGSBACKA kitchen fronts.

IKEA is focused on developing a circular supply chain for all of their materials and products. Another key focus is to prolong the life of products and materials. Take the new sofa VIMLE for example. It’s built on a standard sofa platform where parts can be exchanged and upgraded over time – it’s the sofa that grows with you.

Products typically considered waste,

such as the protective film that covers IKEA products, have been repurposed to create products like their TOMAT spray bottle. Leftover materials from their bed linen production have been transformed into their TÅNUM rug product. [18]

IKEA Tempe recently launched a furniture takeback service that encourages its customers to recycle IKEA goods rather than throw them away. Customers bring in their unwanted furniture in exchange for an IKEA voucher which can be spent instore.

91% of IKEA customers wanted to use the take-back system for their products, and 69% were interested in learning how to upcycle their old furniture.

IKEA in Australia also has a takeback service for mattresses where in 2017 it recycled 1700 mattress that would have

otherwise gone to landfill. Through a partnership with Soft Landings, 75% of the used mattress components are recyclable. Steel springs are turned into products like roof sheeting. Husk makes great weed matting and mulch. Timber is turned into kindling, mulch and animal bedding. Foam is recycled into carpet underlay. [19]

IKEA is exploring what its business could look like in the service economy. In an effort to make the IKEA business more circular and to compete with the low prices of homewares from China, globally, they are developing a furniture rental system where products can be leased for a period of time. These items are then sent back to IKEA, refurbished and rented to another customer extending the product’s lifecycle. [20]

For more information, please contact press.room.au@ikea.com

IKEA is focused on developing a circular supply chain for all of their materials and products. Another key focus is to prolong the life of products and materials.

TEXTILE RECYCLINGThe Ellen Macarthur Foundation is collaborating with the global fashion giant H&M, in an effort to make the fashion industry 100% circular.

H&M has over 3600 stores and retails online in 23 countries. The aim is to instil circular economy principles across the organisation.

There are three key focus areas:

Exploring solutions to create a closed loop for textiles, where unwanted clothes can be recycled into new ones.

Applying circularity to its sustainability targets.

Development of sustainable / circular stores. [21]

Road to recoveryCase studies

It has a vision to be 100% circular by 2030, and hopes to achieve it across four stages:

STAGE A focuses on circular design. This involves transforming their entire design process into a circular system for any resources they use.

STAGE B will make H&M 100% circular in its selection and use of materials. This involves reaching targets of 100% recycled or sustainably sourced materials by 2030, using 100% sustainable cotton, full traceability for animal-derived materials, and sourcing from responsible farms.

STAGE C will make the H&M production process 100% circular. This will be achieved by reaching zero discharged hazardous chemicals in any production process. It will involve managing water responsibility across the value chain including water-efficient equipment in all operations by 2030.

STAGE D will target the prolonged lifespan of their products. This will be achieved by encouraging consumers to prolong the life of their products, use materials from collected garments in production, increase their volumes of collected garments and have local recycling systems for 100% of their stores. [22]

SScenarios

© IKEA

© Filipe G

arcia

NSW has been slow to take action on opportunities to embrace circular thinking and good waste management. Although public interest is high and companies and the community are interested in doing the right thing, there is no firm policy guidance to provide market certainty and drive improvements.

MORE OF THE SAMEConstruction and demolition (C&D) waste from large scale infrastructure projects continues to increase resulting in overall increases in waste.

The China Sword Policy did not spark any major developments in the domestic recycling market. Stockpiling is an issue, and it is not uncommon that recycling gets sent to landfill.

The container deposit scheme has been a success and collects many streams of recycled products; however, this also means that the contamination rates in co-mingled recycling by percentage has increased. This, in turn, decreases the quantities that are accepted internationally.

Alternatives to single-use plastics continue to increase, mostly due to international leadership.

Red bin residual waste continues to have a high percentage of material that could be diverted including organics and dry recyclables.

Hazardous waste continues to often be disposed of as general waste and increases with increasing quantities

of e-waste. There are some efforts to sort and recover this waste.

Commercial and industrial waste continues to increase although targeted programs such as Bin Trim continue to encourage avoidance and improve waste diversion.

Landfills continue to fill up and be expensive to manage. Transport to remote landfills also adds to costs. The availability of virgin materials is decreasing, and the associated costs are high, but the opportunity for a smooth transition to a circular economy has been lost.

POCKETS OF ENTHUSIASM International companies have led the charge with goals to become 100% circular. They

have seen examples where the business case is strong and acted on this. Local suppliers have been slower to adapt and due to little regulation to require levels of recycled content. Recyclate is not cost competitive without other incentives.

Advanced sorting technology and improved resource separation both play a role in improving material quality helping to meet importers expectations. Industry pursues potentially lucrative opportunities: e-waste recycling aligned to advanced manufacturing and the booming renewable energy and storage sector; chemical recycling of plastics and rubber to create high-value export products; and development and proprietary implementation of new waste sorting and recovery processes.

Scenarios

Wasted opportunityThe opportunity to embrace the circular economy has been met with caution. Although the benefits have been demonstrated in other jurisdictions the pace of change is slow, and governments are reluctant to push for major changes in waste management practices.

KEY FACTORS

TIMELINE

High engagement, Low convenience

Low connectivity, Low social licence to operate

High risk, Low preparedness

High resource value, Low market dynamism

Prescriptive policy, Low policy certainty

RISKS In this business as usual scenario risks include:

1. Legacy costs of existing landfillsare not suitably funded.

2. Missed opportunities in reducingresource use and unnecessarilyusing virgin resources.

IMPLICATIONS More of the same scenario that follows the trajectory that NSW is currently on. Key considerations for the 20 year waste strategy based on this scenario are as follows:

• Waste quantities are increasing with diversion rates also increasing but not in line with targets.

• There is some competitiveness in the market however dominated by a few keymarket players. Investment is limited due to lack of policy certainty.

• Consumers are interested; however, there is some lack of trust in thesystem due to the negative impacts of export restrictions.

• Pockets of technology and innovation exist with incremental steps beingtaken to improve waste management processes, but opportunities toembrace the circular economy to its full potential are not taken.

• Clear policy direction on waste avoidance, energy from waste and strategicplanning across government is required to promote investment.

Consumer patterns

Infrastructure planning

Environmental risk

Market forces

Leadership and policy

36 37

Waste programs continue to divert waste however totals continue to rise

Waste from the booming renewable energy sector increases

Virgin resources become scarce and expensive

Some companies create innovative technologies to

reduce waste

Landfill operation costs are more than allocated funding

High levels of recycling are sent to landfill due to contamination levels

2019 2029 2039

Finding our niche

A waste management process system where some players avoid, reduce and recycle but most opportunities are missed.

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38 39

In the face of Australia and the world’s rising waste crisis, UNSW Sydney’s Centre for Sustainable Materials Research and Technology (SMaRT) has launched the first e-waste micro-factory capable of reforming the valuable materials contained in electronic waste otherwise headed landfill, incinerators and overseas for unknown disposal.

The micro-recycling technology processes items such as printers, smartphones and laptops into valuable materials for re-use such as metal alloys and plastic filament for 3D printing. The factory was launched at the SMaRT Centre laboratories by former NSW Minister for the Environment Gabriel Upton.

The microfactory technology is also being used to develop new products from common waste materials, such as new coffee tables developed from recycled coffee grounds

and used takeaway coffee cups. The panels that form the top of the table are the latest created by the SMaRT team after developing flat panel building products made from materials such as clothing, glass, plastics and other waste materials, sometimes using a combination of these. The various panels can have a variety of applications in relation to thermal and acoustic properties, while research continues on developing structural panels for walls, flooring and even for ceramic-style benchtops.

SMaRT continues to develop its e-waste micro-recycling technology and other waste reformation techniques through its microfactory concept which aims to treat waste as a renewable resource to prevent it being dumped in landfill, burnt or shipped overseas. [25]

RECLAIM PV An Australian solar panel recycling company ‘Reclaim’ was established in 2014.

This business operates across Australia and the wider Oceania region. It provides a photovoltaic (PV) take back and reclaiming scheme through local collection points with the goal of delivering a viable and streamlined system to enable the reuse and recycling of PV components. The business was founded by the directors of S.M.A.R.T Pty Ltd, who recognised the waste management challenge that the PV industry is facing. Working with a team at Flinders University in South Australia, they are developing best practice recycling of PV modules and reclamation.

A defined course of action is now underway to provide dedicated solutions for PV recycling in Australia. Reclaim aim to provide easy access for module drop-off and collection, with hopes to use existing business networks offering collection systems that cover all of Australia.

Reclaim has developed a unique process of reclaiming efficient cells from damaged solar modules. By removing the good cells, they can reduce the amount of energy needed to effectively recycle solar cells and repurpose working cells into new products.

Reclaim is working closely with Australian government agencies, PV manufacturers and private sector consultants. They are developing infrastructure for the future of recycling and waste management in the PV industry. [23]

Wasted opportunityCase studies

Scenarios

The World Economic Forum released their report ‘A New Circular Vision for Electronics’ in January 2019.

It highlighted the issue of e-waste on a global scale and included contributions by industry experts from around the globe.

The report identified key trends in e-waste that will drive the way we respond to this issue in the future. The total volume of e-waste is expected to surpass 52 million tonnes by 2021. By 2040, the emissions caused in the production of electronics will amount to 14% of total emissions. Many other insights are detailed, including the flows of e-waste throughout their lifecycle and a proposal for what the circular system for e-waste may look like. This includes the use of scrap from manufacture, the life extension of electronic products and a transformation of disposed e-waste into the creation of new products.

The publication concludes that while e-waste is emerging as one of the world’s largest waste challenges, it also presents itself as an opportunity for a reboot of the electronics system and to close the loop on e-waste. It emphasises that this publication is just the start, and that collaboration between industry leaders to form a circular economy is the next stage. It is highlighted that the transition to a circular economy must take place in a way that benefits all stakeholders from the consumer to workers, government, businesses, entrepreneurs and society at large.

There will be a need for mass collaboration, system-changing ideas, new policy frameworks and new ways of doing business. The organisations involved in this work have a shared commitment to achieve this and invite others to join in this important endeavour. [24]

WEF: A NEW CIRCULAR VISION FOR ELECTRONICS WORLD’S FIRST E-WASTE MICRO-FACTORY LAUNCHED AT UNSW

It can turn many types of consumer waste such as glass, plastic and timber into commercial materials and products.

© UN

SW Sydney, SM

aRT Centre

© Rw

anda Green Fund

Popular media continues to highlight emotive waste issues including the environmental impact of ocean plastic and health risks to developing communities from mismanagement of exported recyclables.

CHANGING THE PROBLEM Increasing public engagement has supported government action to phase out problem wastes including some types of plastic and single-use plastic products. The federal commitment to 100% reusable, recyclable or compostable packing by 2025 was also enthusiastically supported. Common product alternatives include bio-based compostable plastics, durable plant-fibre materials and cardboard lined with compostable waterproof linings.

Many communities, particularly those in metropolitan areas, do not have access to the commercial composting facilities needed to break down the new materials. Most are non-recyclable and ultimately decompose in landfill. Consumers find it difficult to distinguish between recyclable plastics and compostable plastic-substitutes and inadvertently contaminate recycling streams. Additional investment in sorting technologies is needed to cope with the issue. Recovering materials within Australia is expensive, and most are still exported with very little transparency.

COMMUNITY SOLUTIONSThere is growing evidence of soil health benefits from recycled organic products. Regional areas take advantage of greater access to land, agricultural buyers and predominantly detached housing to pursue

organics collection. Most opt for open windrow composting technology to minimise infrastructure investment costs. Some towns implement a ‘precinct waste hub’ model for organics processing, bringing together organic waste from households, large businesses, food manufacturing and sewage treatment work to create scale for anaerobic digestion infrastructure.

Consumer concern also increases reuse and repair of household items, creating a modest reduction in waste generation per capita. Online platforms support sharing, leasing and repair services for items which would once have been considered cheap household necessities.

LIMITED IMPACTSSmall-scale organics processing becomes

common but is not accessible for large portions of the metropolitan population. A prescriptive unambitious policy limits innovation in the waste industry. Similarly, low policy certainty creates low investment confidence translates to no large scale centralised recycling and organics processing facilities. Increasing transport costs to distribute the recovered product discourage the creation of new organics processing facilities. Other waste streams rely on global markets for recycling which threatens the continuation of kerbside recycling. As the recycling markets adjust, consumers accept the resulting cost increases that flow onto them. There are, growing concerns from the public that the cost increases are not sustainable and Australian markets should be developed.

Best intentions

KEY FACTORS

TIMELINE

High engagement, Low convenience

Low connectivity, High social licence to operate

High risk, High preparedness

Low resource value, Low market dynamism

Prescriptive policy, Low policy certainty

RISKS When waste management is led by the community regulation must protect NSW from risks such as:

1. Fire hazards or chemical leachingrisk due to stockpiling of textileand electronic wastes gathered

2. Biosecurity risk from agriculturalpests or pathogens spreadthrough poor quality controlof recovered organics

3. Poor quality control in small scalemodular organics processingsystems leading to a distribution ofchemical contaminants to land

IMPLICATIONS Community schemes can have a great impact on waste management; however, it must be supported by infrastructure in order to be successful. The implications for the 20-year waste strategy include:

• Waste generation rates see marginal decreases. Recovery rates see aconsiderable increase primarily due to the increased recovery of organics.

• Costs are increasing with no incentives for investment resulting in uncompetitive markets.• Communities are taking ownership of their waste streams

and being very engaged with the process.• Opportunities for compostable packaging alternatives to increase in

order to decrease contamination in organic waste collections.• A range of adaptable composting technologies and organic treatment emerge.• Ensuring that land use planning includes adequate space for waste management

collection and processing for new developments is required.• Regulation and compliance will have to adapt to meet the need for a large range of

collection and treatment facilities including how to utilise the end products.

Consumer patterns

Infrastructure planning

Environmental risk

Market forces

Leadership and policy

40 41

Scenarios

Good intentionsHigh engagement sparks community concern which drives widespread behaviour change. Single use plastic has been banned, and communities sort and recycle their waste including organics. Unfortunately, without the support of coordinated infrastructure, the impact is limited.

100% reusable, recyclable or compostable packaging

Organics recycling booms in rural regions of NSW with the introduction

of precinct waste hubs

Small scale organics recycling initiatives are launched

Advanced robotics sorting capabilities are introduced due to large quantities of mixed waste

Reliance on landfill increases as organics recycling capabilities

are limited in high density areas

Sharing economy thrives as consumer trend to repair household items emerges

2019 2029 2039

Best intentions

The community take the lead on waste management with easy to recycle products and composting.

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MANDALAY TECHNOLOGIES

96 Bangalow is a regenerative farm located in the Northern Rivers region of NSW.

It functions as both a place to dispose of food waste and grow local crops. The farm provides the benefit of composting and local production and it plans to accelerate its circular economy approach using data from Mandalay technologies.

Growing food and keeping it within a reduced radius has numerous benefits, from reduced greenhouse gas emissions associated with fewer automobiles transporting the goods, to supporting local industries. This method of production and consumption is one of its guiding aims.

The mission is to develop a space that helps create a healthy lifestyle through regenerative land use and sustainable processes. It aims to create zero emissions while supporting ecological values and sustainable

economies, supplying the community with locally grown produce, waste collection services, employment and education.

To support its expansion, 96 Bangalow has been working with software specialists Mandalay Technologies to start collecting and analysing its business intelligence.It will help them better monitor local business behaviours, about what waste will be created and where so that they can convert more into compost. This is what allows the circular economy to take effect.

http://wastemanagementreview.com.au/paddock-plate-mandalay-technologies/

Since the implementation of a strict, town-wide, recycling regime in 2003, residents of Kamikatsu have been sorting their rubbish into 34 specific categories and taking them to be recycled.

Prior to this, the town dealt with their waste by incinerating it and through a rigorous recycling program intended to distance it from such environmentally-harmful methods. They moved instead towards zero-waste status.

Residents must clean waste and sort it according to detailed categories such as steel cans, aluminium cans, flyers, cartons and newspapers, before taking it to the town’s sorting facility. Here, workers check the items are sorted correctly to ensure successful recycling.

Other initiatives and features throughout the town help to normalise the zero-waste attitude. Businesses implement the recycling regulations, and signs on the sorting bins inform people what their waste will be recycled into and how this will benefit the

town, which incentivises the practice. Kamikatsu also has a ‘circular shop’ where people can donate an unwanted item in exchange for something free – an alternative to disposing of what they no longer need. In addition to this, the town is home to a factory where local women work to make products out of waste items – for example, soft toys out of kimonos,or clothes upcycled from festival flags.

Kamikatsu currently sends only 20% of its waste to landfill, recycling 80%. They aim to be 100% zero waste by 2020. Other global examples have a similar aim – San Diego intending to achieve a waste-free status by 2040 for example. The success of Kamikatsu provides a useful model going forward for towns and cities striving to become zero waste. [26}

Good intentions Case studies

Scenarios

KAMIKATSU JAPANESE VILLAGE

It has a ‘circular shop’ where people can donate an unwanted item in exchange for something free – an alternativeto disposing ofwhat they nolonger need.

A place to dispose of food waste, and grow local crops.

© Yuki Shim

azu

© Hary Rose

44 45

In 2022, realising the potential to provide a range of services, Global Mega Corp start to offer cheap Global Mega Corp ‘home’ devices, other sensors and free installation in smart homes. These sensors initially monitor energy and water, allowing things to be turned on and off using voice commands.

COMBINED SERVICES An in-depth understanding of customer resources allows Global Mega Corp to provide a combined service for all living needs. People essentially pay a monthly subscription which covers all their basic living requirements. They can choose their level of service based on their income and requirements.

Global Mega Corp optimises all resource use and recovery with their digital twin model of all resource flows. Customers have minimal awareness of what happens to their waste; however, systems are so advanced that up to 100% of all waste is reused, repurposed or recycled and very little goes to landfill.

Combining the water and wastewater services allows for combined anaerobic digestion facilities. Additionally, a single service provider also allows optimisation of the energy, water and waste networks using customer demand data analytics. This provides opportunities to reduce peak demand through feedback controls. The establishment of good data protocols and mandating the collection of detailed data back in 2020 has meant that repurposing and recycling of these products has become a lucrative business.

DIGITAL AGEWith the introduction of 5G and an increase in functionality, smart devices become increasingly popular. Smart fridges know what items they contain and when to reorder. This happens automatically, triggering automated packaging at the warehouse and drone delivery to the home.

Millennials and digital natives have accepted their data being collected and are happy for this to be used to increase convenience in their time poor, fast paced lives. However, access and use of personal data comes some concerns about their privacy, ethics and cyber security.

TARGETING ALL WASTE STREAMSRenewable energy is commercially driven and now supplies almost all of the electricity in NSW. Energy storage includes both lithium and hydrogen batteries. Electric vehicles are dominant for local trips with hydrogen a key fuel type for longer journeys, freight, ferries and trains.

High-density areas collect all organic waste from homes through a combination of underground automated waste collection systems and autonomous vehicles. This is transported to composting facilities to create high nutrient soils and used by smart agricultural systems owned and operated by Global Mega Corp.

Service monopoly

KEY FACTORS

TIMELINE

Low engagement, High convenience

Low connectivity, Low social licence to operate

High risk, Low preparedness

Low resource value, High market dynamism

Adaptive policy, Low policy certainty

RISKS A monopoly player could control the market with no competition. This could lead to practices and risks including:

1. Cybersecurity risks due to a hightechnology-controlled environment.

2. New transport modes such asdrone technology could create newissues such as acoustic issues.

3. Personal privacy breaches are a bigconcern where all data is tracked.

4. The power of governmentdiminished as the monopoly hasgreat influence on people’s lives.

IMPLICATIONS In this scenario, the monopoly player controls many services. Although this is not the case at the moment, there are a number of big players in the industry. The implications for the 20 year waste strategy include:

• Waste generation rates remain stable; however, recycling rates increase due toadvanced collection and sorting techniques. Landfill rates consequently decline.

• The is low market competitiveness in this scenario. In areas where commercialviability is low, some small players still exist. Government must maintain controlof some assets so that uncompetitive behaviour is not permitted.

• Consumers are complacent; however, sharing of their usage dataand allows the service monopoly to better target recycling.

• This scenario is high in technology and innovation. It monitors resourceuse allowing detailed management of waste streams.

• Government needs to introduce new data regulations against anti-competitivebehaviour such as price fixing and protection of personal data.

Consumer patterns

Infrastructure planning

Environmental risk

Market forces

Leadership and policy

44 45

SScenarios

Service monopolyA service monopoly reigns providing a data driven offering of all services to customers: energy, water, transport, waste management, food supply and other items. Efficiency and convenience is high; however, risks of uncompetitive behaviour, or cyber security need to be managed.

Smart Homes are becoming common across NSW. These

homes monitor the generation of waste materials.

Digital twin models for resource flows are established, optimising

resource use and recovery

Privacy concerns are raised due to the lack of engagement and transparency

from Global Mega Corp

Global Mega Corp announces its expansion into smart utilities and offers bundled services

across NSW

NSW has become reliant on smart infrastructure with little awareness

of how their waste is managed

The first giga utility nexus is established, led by Global

Mega Corp

2019 2029 2039

Service monopoly

A monopoly player makes the waste management system efficient but vulnerable to uncompetitive behaviour.

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OPEN CITIES

The Open Cities Association represent infrastructure and service providers, cities and urban design advocates working together to transition Australian communities to a more sustainable, resilient and affordable energy, water, digital and mobility future.

The association works with government and industry to modernise and rethink policy, legislation, regulation and price settings to enable next-generation local utility and mobility services and solutions.

The aim is to help create infrastructure and services that are innovative, sustainable, cheaper and decarbonise the economy. They collect evidence and insight from their members to influence governments on policy and deploy best-practice products and projects.

For more information see: https://www.opencities.net.au/

Service monopoly Case studies

Scenarios

A new class of buildings will house these hubs for urban circularity. Through smart, functional engineering and design, Biopolus has created the BioMakery, a biofactory for the future city. It uses biological engineering to harness clean water, energy, nutrients, and minerals from wastewater and organic waste. Supplemental modules for community functions and urban farming can also be added to create an open and integrated space for sustainable urban living.

The BioMakery was developed based on the principle of water-based urban circularity, where energy, food and waste systems are built around a regenerative and sustainable water cycle. Hubs can operate

standalone or in a network, are modular, platform based, and therefore extendable in both capacity and functionality. The core function of each hub is to convert organic waste and wastewater streams into valuable resources, by passing through multiple bio-reactors, designed and operated using predictive software algorithms.

Biopolus’ vision is to develop a network of vibrant and aesthetically pleasing community hubs. The desired effect of this will be to shift public perception of wastewater treatment plants away from ‘no go zones’ to energetic innovation hubs, creating facilities that are an attractive and integral part of the city fabric. [27]

ENERGY

FO

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WATER

DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE

PLANT FACTORYBIO-MANUFACTURING

DIGITIZATION

COMMUNITY

WATER FACTORY

EDUCATION / R&D

ENERGY RECOVERY

Biopolus’ vision is to develop a network of vibrant and aesthetically pleasing community hubs.

BIOPOLUS

Biopolus, a company in Hungary, is engineering urban ecosystems to close water, energy, food, and waste loops through a network of decentralized urban metabolic hubs.

© Biopolus© iStock

49

“I want to engage people to protect the natural world” MICHELLE DADO-MILLYNN, Dungog

© M

ichelle Da0-Millynn

50 51

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

The NSW population is projected to reach over 9.9 million people by 2036. NSW is expected to experience 2.79 million births with 1.45 million deaths. Overseas migration is projected to bring in 1.74 million people, while interstate migration will result in a decrease of 370,000. [29]

Compared to a global average of 13% of the global population over the age of 60 in 2017, Australia is on the high end of the global ageing trend with 15.7% of Australians over 60. [30] The aging population will increasedemand for in structure and resourcesneeded to deliver health service. [31]

Household sizes in Australia are projected to decrease by 2036. Couples with children will continue to be the dominant dwelling type, expected to contribute 30.3% in 2041. Lone single person dwellings will be the next most common, overtaking couple-only dwellings in 2026. [29]. An increase in smaller households will require different waste management strategies for maximising resource recovery. [32]

Millennials will represent the largest generation over the next 40 years. Shifts in generation proportion impacts waste generation due to differences in attitudes and lifestyles. For example, millennials are shown generate more

food waste than older generations.

AFFLUENCE

Australian households spend

$2.2k-3.8kfood waste

Figure 9: AUS household food waste. [33}

It is projected that the ‘global middle-class’ will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 4.9 billion by 2030. The bulk of this growth will come in the Asia Pacific, with the region projected to represent 66% of the global middle-class population and 59% of middle-class consumption by 2030. [34]

Increased waste generation is a product of economic development and the resulting affluence. Prosperity and the resulting availability of products and services contribute to increasing municipal solid waste. [35] Economic growth is also linked to growth in construction and demolition and commercial and industrial wastes. [36]

While the average household earning is just under $110,000 per annum, the top 20% of households earn more than twice this (exceeding $260,000). [37] The increasing proportion of highly affluent households is impacting Australia’s waste generation. With an increase of affluence comes the increased affordability of time saving and convenience products and services. These products often come at the cost of greater waste generated, particularly single use plastics.

While currently representing a small proportion of waste volumes, E-waste is currently one of the fastest-growing waste streams in Australia as a result of increasing affluence. [38] In 2018, Australian households threw away 3.1 million tonnes of food annually. This is expected to grow with rising sales of groceries, driven by affluence. [39]

CONSUMER AWARENESS

High profile waste issues – in particular, the ocean plastics crisis – have captured public attention, sparking outrage and calls for action. Respected public figures have taken up the issue, most notably David Attenborough with his Blue Planet II documentary.

Simultaneously, the Ellen Macarthur Foundation capture government and industry attention with their ambitious ‘New Plastics Economy’ report, calling for the world to radically rethink plastics use, starting with plastic packaging. [40]

Convenience lifestyles

Technological evolutions

Consumption and growth

Planetary health

Policy and regulation

In Australia, the ABC series ‘The War on Waste’ shone a spotlight on the waste industry resulting in a massive spike in consumer awareness. Reusable coffee cup company ‘KeepCup’, saw an increase in sales enquiries of 690% after the airing of an episode that highlighted that 1 billion coffee cups were sent to landfill each year. [42]

The NSW Waste Avoidance and Resource Recovery Strategy acknowledge education to encourage behaviour change, and audits of bins with the encouragement of ethical behaviour and education about bad behaviour being shown to be effective in reducing contamination in bins.

Recent studies have found 90% of Australians are concerned with environmental sustainability. [43] With greater awareness comes greater care in avoiding waste [36] but also increasing pressure on the waste sector to meet customer expectations.

In 2018, when Ipswich City Council announced that kerbside recycling from 200,000 residents would be sent to landfill, this caused a significant public backlash. [44]

DIGITAL LIFESTYLES

One-halfof all e-waste ispersonaldevices

Figure 11: Personal device e-waste. [45]

Digital technologies continue to increase globally and are driving some of the most significant changes in Australia today. The way we use and integrate digital technologies into our lives impacts consumers, businesses and the broader economy.

The average Australian home has 13.7 digital devices. This is projected to increase to an average of 30.7 digital devices by 2021, which would constitute an overall growth of 124% over just four years. [46] This is impacting Australia’s e-waste generation, which is currently growing up to three times faster than general waste.

Further projections suggest e-waste will grow to approximately 281,000 tonnes in 2035, a growth of 87% since 2018.

While three-quarters of Australians know that their mobile phones can be recycled and reused, only 8% act on this. [47]

Australians are relying on devices for everyday activities such as entertainment banking and purchasing good and services. [48] Mobile devices are also augmenting our social experiences and influence where people choose to live.

Coupled with increased consumer engagement, digital technologies can place consumers at the centre of service delivery to meet customer expectations. [49] With more ways for waste services to engage with the public, this opens behaviours change opportunities.

Impact on 20-year Waste Strategy:• As the population grows, the waste

strategy must consider the pocketsof growth across the state withan adaptive approach that fits adiversity of household patterns.

• New construction for the growingpopulation should be guided with bestpractice waste strategies to minimiseC&D waste, encouraging modular andreusable designs were possible.

• The strategy could consider ongoingpublic engagement to shift wastebehaviours with an appreciationof generational differences inattitudes towards waste.

• As digital technology is embeddedinto the everyday, there are moreopportunities to engage withthe public and promote sharingplatforms to encourage reuse.

• As affluence increases, there must besuitable policies in place to decouplewealth and waste generation, suchas eliminating planned obsolescencein common household items.

Megatrend detail

p12For the introduction to megatrends see

Figure 8: Projected generational population growth. [28]

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0

Figure 10: Google searches for plastic waste in AUS. [41]

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War on waste series release

52 53

ALTERNATE ENERGY SOURCES

Utility Solar DER (rooftop PV and battery)

Utility storage

Generation mixBlack coal

Gas/liquid/biomass Hydro Wind

NSW

2018−19

2039−40

Figure 12: Projected energy generation changes in NSW. [50]

Uptake of renewable energy generation and battery storage systems is accelerating and will create a large and challenging waste stream as components reach end of life. The Australian Energy Market Operator Integrated System Plan predicts that by 2040, more than 50% of the state’s generation will come from utility and rooftop solar.

Electric vehicle technology is advancing rapidly, with EV’s predicted to reach 33% of the global car fleet and 55% of light vehicle sales by 2040. [51] This will be another significant driver of lithium-ion battery consumption in the future.

Other Australian states are already positioning to capitalise on this opportunity, with Australia’s first lithium-ion battery recycling facility now operating in Victoria and Regional Development Australia championing a ‘Lithium Valley’ precinct in Western Australia which would bring together lithium refining, battery manufacturing and recycling businesses in an industrial ecosystem powered by the global energy transition. [45]

While the lifespan of new energy technologies range from 5 - 20-years, infrastructure should be planned to deal with this emerging waste stream. [52] Additionally, solar power currentlyrepresents one eighth of the NSW regionalNEM generation mix. When existinginstallations reach their end of life, thisrepresents an opportunity to recover highvalue materials within these products. [50]

WASTE TECHNOLOGY

Figure 13: Percentage of incinerated municipal waste. [53]

Centralised resource recovery infrastructure has already adopted automated technology to minimise costs and protect workers from contaminated waste. Optical sorting technology is used to identify different types of materials, using data from multiple material recovery facilities through a shared machine learning platform. Machine vision and artificial intelligence can also identify recyclable products by type.

Various resource recovery technologies such as thermal energy from waste, anaerobic digestion of organic waste and in-vessel composting are technically mature in many countries. With the right financial and policy settings, these types of centralised resource recovery technologies could become more widespread in NSW.

Emerging resource recovery technologies include pyrolysis, turning plastic waste into liquid fuel, as well as an enzymatic process producing bioliquid and clean recyclables, whilst generating electricity. Other companies have begun to take advantage of the waste-water-energy nexus by using other business’s waste to help generate power through anaerobic digestion.

Commercial organic waste is accepted at Yarra Valley Water’s Wollert sewage treatment plant and Richgro’s fertiliser production plant. Meanwhile, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation identified a potential $1.1 billion investment opportunity for energy generation at intensive livestock and food processing facilities.

SMART INFRASTRUCTURE

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Figure 14: Global smart cities investments. [54]

Smart City technologies control and optimise urban systems by gathering data, accessing the Internet of Things and applying data analytics algorithms. In the waste sector, businesses including Enevo, Bigbelly and Ecube Labs offer level-sensing, internet-connected bins to optimise collection which are reporting operational cost savings of 50%-80%. [55] Other emerging technologies include smart scales for tracking food waste generation such as those used in IKEA stores as part of their Food Is Precious Campaign. [56]

The Circular Economy envisions a more sustainable system in which materials are traded and repurposed, flowing between people and businesses. Sensing, optimisation and data analytics technologies will play an essential role in managing these complex logistics and quality control systems

RFID technology now ubiquitous in access cards and contactless payments, could be adapted to enable pay-by-weight waste collection models which incentivise waste avoidance and recycling. In South Korea, an RFID system is already in place to allow weight-based charging for food waste disposal.

The top occupations in the waste sector are truck drivers, factory process workers, recycling collectors and plant operators, most of which fall into the two sectors. [60]

To date, waste recycling has remained dependent on people controlling inputs, making decisions and directly participating in the production process through manual sorting. This has been due to the inherent and unpredictable nature of waste streams. [61]

The Max-AI system from Bulk Handling Systems is one of the emerging innovations that is automating the sector. This machine is capable of using computer vision to identify waste items and sort these to the same standard as a human. [61] The waste sector benefits significantly from this as automation technology becomes more necessary in optimising sorting processes to reach purity targets. [62]

Impact on 20-year Waste Strategy • As the renewable energy market grows,

there is an opportunity to recover high-value resources from the emerging wastestreams while reducing waste to landfill.

• Innovative or new waste managementsolutions to suit different scales,geographies and waste typesshould be supported by policy.

• The strategy should consideropportunities for smart infrastructuresolutions where sensors and datacreate new efficiencies in operation,reporting and payments.

• As automation continues to disruptindustries and replace manual tasks, thestrategy should look for opportunitiesto increase safety and precision ofoperations while upskilling employersto complement automated functions.

Megatrend detail

One example of a more connected waste system is Automated waste collection systems (AWCS), that replace waste vehicles with underground pipes, creating a cleaner urban landscape and more accessible collection of organic, dry recycling and residual waste. The first Australian AWCS project is currently underway in Queensland’s Maroochydore CBD development.

AUTOMATION AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

In 2017, global industrial robot sales increased by 18% to about 346,800 units. From 2018 to 2020 it is projected that this will increase by a further 15% on average per year. [57] In NSW, the cost of computers and robotics have decreased, reflected by the increase in global uptake. This has led to the growth of non-repetitive occupations. [58]

The work groups most likely to be automated over the next 20-years are machinery operators/drivers (89.8% automated) and labourers (88.4% automated). These two sectors represent 15.5% of NSW employment. [58]

Convenience lifestyles

Technological evolutions

Consumption and growth

Planetary health

Policy and regulation

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Convenience lifestyles

Technological evolutions

Consumption and growth

Planetary health

Policy and regulation

CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Figure 16: Effect of circular system on primary material demand. [63]

Circular economy principles aim to transform the current linear economy from a take-make-use-dispose model to a restorative closed-loop system. A circular economy aims to reduce waste, pollution and pressure on resources by lowering the amount of virgin material consumed. [64]

Internationally, we can see greater recognition of the benefits of a circular economy. Within Australia, circular economy principles are starting to underpin national and state waste policy objectives; however, specific action implementation plans are still in the pipeline.

Australia has increased its attention on the circular Economy following the enforcement of the China National Sword Policy, which restricted waste and metal imports to the country in 2018. Australia has committed 100 per cent of Australian packaging being recyclable, compostable or reusable by 2025 or earlier. [65]

In NSW, The ‘Sustainability Advantage’ program of the Office of Environment and Heritage estimates that opportunities in recovered resource value and avoided landfill levy at $2 billion per year. [66] A NSW circular economy implementation plan will be developed by 2020 provide guidance on the above focus areas.

Other states are also incorporating CE into their policies and strategies. Green Industries SA have indicated that adoption of a circular economy could create up to 25,700 jobs by 2030 and also produce a 27% reduction in greenhouse gases, equivalent to 7.7m tonnes of C0

2. [67]

GLOBALISED WASTE TRADE

Many countries lack the capacity to process their own waste. In 2017, Europe exported one-sixth of its plastic waste, largely to Asia. China has imported a cumulative 45% of global plastic waste since 1992. [69]

In November 2017, China outlined their intention of adopting a 0.5% contamination limit on waste imports for 24 waste categories. These new contamination thresholds came into force in January 2018. [70]

Australia exports recyclable material to over 100 countries with 4.23 megatonnes of recycled materials exported in 2016-17. China has been a major destination for Australia’s recycled waste, with around 1.3 million tonnes exported in 2016–17. This accounted for 4% of Australia’s total recyclable waste but included significant amounts of recyclable plastics (35% of totals) and recyclable paper (30% of totals). [71]

Countries still accepting imports include Malaysia and Vietnam. However, these countries are importing at much lower prices. [71]

Multiple Australian waste organisations and governing bodies argue that recycling in Australia needs to transition to support waste being processed and reused to make new products domestically. [71]

It has been proposed that the most effective way to transition away from an export-focused industry is to establish a circular waste economy in Australia. [71]

LEGACY COSTS

Estimated time for a nappy to biodegrade 450

years

Figure 18: Years taken for nappy to biodegrade. [72]

Legacy costs from previously landfilled waste have a range of impacts .The hidden costs of unmanaged municipal waste include, environmental costs, loss of productivity from damages to human health, the loss of valuable products and lost development opportunities from space allocated to landfill.

Waste prevention programs also bring job opportunities which could generate between 40,000 and 180,000 jobs by 2040. Other legacy costs tied to poor waste management include decreases in tourism due to polluted environments and loss incurred through damaged fisheries. [73]

Rehabilitating a legacy landfill can be an arduous and costly task for Australian councils. Dozens of landfills across NSW and Victoria are suspected to be leaking potentially toxic materials into soil and waterways. [74]

Globally there is projected to be a 183% increase in cost for waste management between 2010 and 2025 which is a rate of 12.2% increase in waste management costs per annum. [75]

Sustainable procurement aims to reduce the impacts of goods and services. In this context, sustainable procurement can increase increaser responsibility through product take back and recycling schemes to reduce the burden of legacy costs.

EVOLVING INDUSTRIES

Figure 19: AUS and global investment into AgTech 2014-17. [76]

There are a number of internationally emerging markets. Agriculture is a long-standing market however digital intervention is impacting the entire supply chain. ‘AgTech’ innovation is modernising agriculture and making it resilient and more efficient. It is estimated that the value of AgTech will reach around $189 billion by 2022. [77]

Agriculture is one of Australia’s most competitive sectors. AgTech in Australia is predicted to be a $100 billion industry by 2030. [77] Australia’s food wastage has an annual estimated cost of $8 billion. AgTech can reduce this waste through the provision of a suitable food supply.

Historically, manufacturing has made a significant contribution to the Australian economy but is experiencing rapid change in the face of global trends and emerging technologies. While traditional low tech manufacturing moves offshore, Australia is seeing a transition to high tech advanced manufacturing industries with more automation, advanced materials and 3d printing. [78]

In Australia, solar recycling is only done by one Adelaide based company Reclaim PV. It estimates that for the next 15 years up to 150,000 solar panels will need recycling per year, rapidly increasing into the millions per year thereafter. [79] It is estimated that there will be 78 million tonnes of cumulative PV waste material by 2050. [80]

As home solar battery installations increase, more will need to be disposed of. Estimates are that around 8,000 tonnes of lithium-ion batteries per year will increase to 150,000 tonnes in 20 years. [81]

The rise in consumer-centric services is enabling consumers to expect on-demand services. Companies are also responding to customer expectations by provided products with reduced packaging. Emerging web-based recycling markets are allowing customers to repurpose their goods and earn from it in their own time. [82]

Impact on 20-year Waste Strategy• To realise a circular economy, the

strategy requires change but across allindustries to adopt industrial ecologyprinciples, including the emerging andevolving industries of the future.

• Changes to global trade markets,such as the China Sword, can have ahuge impact on waste managementoperations. A long-term strategy mustlimit dependence on global markets tobuild resilience in the industry.

• The strategy should prevent furtherlegacy costs and have a focus on howto accelerate the rehabilitation andmanagement of landfills, especially inlight of more frequent extreme weatherand emerging hazardous wastes.

Megatrend detail

Farm management software sensing and loT

Other agricultural production and supply chain technologies

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02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

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Virgin material substituted by

circular material

Figure 17: Value of Australian plastic exports 2017-2018 [68]

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Policy and regulation

ECOSYSTEM POLLUTION

Figure 20: Output of mismanaged waste by coastal populations [83]

Evidence of human existence can be seen in most ecosystems. As our population increases and our demand for food and energy grows, our ecological footprint is having increasingly significant consequences.

Hazardous waste ranges from household chemicals and paint to asbestos and medical waste. Sometimes it is the transportation or storage of these waste streams that are hazardous. [84]

Hazardous wastes are of concern due to their disproportionately high effects on humans and the environment. Hazardous waste in Australia is managed in a number of ways including landfill, recycling, chemical and physical treatment, biodegradation and incineration. Volumes of hazardous waste in Australia are expected to reach 9.9 million tonnes by 2033-34. [85]

Contaminated soils make up over one-quarter of hazardous waste in Australia causing major legacy issues.

A notable impact of our ecosystem pollution is our diminishing reliance on ecosystem services including the provision of food, water, environmental and climatic regulation benefits.

We are starting to see the damage of chemical by-products such as organic pollutants. When exposed to ecosystems, these chemicals bioaccumulate up

food chains, causing disease. [86]

Eight million tonnes of plastics are disposed of into the ocean every year. Unregulated disposal causes blockage of drains which has significant consequences in the wake of flooding. Micro-plastics also cause severe damage to wildlife health. [86]

RESOURCE DEPLETION

Figure 21: Number of Earth’s resources consumed projections to 2030 [33]

The global community requires the annual total resource output — all fossil fuel use, biological resource harvesting, and water use — of 1.7 Earths to maintain present consumption rates, much of which ends up as waste. By 2030, without a change in consumption patterns, we will require twice as many resources per year as the planet can provide. [87]

As of 2017, we extract about 60 billion tonnes of raw materials a year, 50% more annually than 30 years ago. [88] This trend, combined with demographic shifts and rapid urbanisation, threatens to make resource scarcity a major concern.

Cobalt has been given increased attention due to its use in electronics – specifically electric vehicles, computers and other personal devices which are in high demand globally. Due to the low supply shortage, it is predicted that by the end of 2019 the cobalt deficit will be 3205 tonnes, and in 2020 the deficit will be 5340 tonnes. [89]

Australia’s mining industry contributes to 7.4% of the GDP [90]. Depletion of high-value materials can build the business case for

resource recovery. As resources become increasingly scarce, circular solutions will become an increasingly attractive option to businesses who may find it more economically viable to recover and repurpose materials rather than extract new resources.

EXTREME WEATHER

How climate change will affect NSW

Figure 22: Climate change affects in NSW. [91]

Asia is one of the most at-risk regions for impacts of sea level rise. Asia has over 800,000km2 of land positioned to be affected by a 1m sea level rise. This is higher than in any other region. This land also houses over 100 million people and generates over $568.2 billion in GDP for the region. [55] Without immediate action, these environmental disasters will have knock-on effects for other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia. [92]

2018 was Australia’s third-warmest year on record, with the national mean temperature 1.14°C above average. It was amongst the six warmest years on record for all States and the warmest on record for New South Wales. [93]

The temperature of NSW is expected to climb by an additional 1.8°C by 2090, with an RCP4.5 emissions trajectory and 3.7°C by 2090 with an RCP8.5 trajectory. [94] The increase of temperature andsea level rise are two driving forcesbehind many natural disaster events.

As a result of climate change, NSW is

West Australia since the 1970s. Australia must work to mitigate climate risk as well as adapt to the changes we are locked in to face over the next 50 years. [99]

Climate model projections indicate a likely continued decrease in tropical cyclone numbers but an increase in the intensity of those cyclones. [100]

In NSW, severe fire weather is projected to increase in the future. These increases will predominantly occur in summer and spring. Severe fire weather conditions suggest that when fires do occur, they will be harder to control. [101]

Climate change is projected to increase temperatures in Sydney, with maximums to increase by 0.7°C by 2030. Changes in land use, however, has the potential to double the temperature increase caused by climate change in NSW urban environments. [101] Heatwaves are projected to occur more often and last up to 3.5 days longer, on average, than currently. By 2030 there are expected to be ten more heatwaves per year. [101]

Impact on 20-year Waste Strategy

• The strategy should encouragethe adoption of alternatives toproducts with significant impacts onenvironmental and human health,such a hazardous chemicals andsingle-use plastic, so bans on harmfulproducts are more readily accepted.

• Resource depletion and increasedvalue of resources represent anopportunity for the strategy to allowfor resource recovery in NSW.

• The strategy must have best practiceclimate change adaptation guidancefor the whole waste networkto limit the severity of extremeweather risks, especially risksrelating to transport and trade.

Megatrend detail

expected to see an increase in extreme rainfall events, bushfires, sea level rise, severe storms and heatwaves. [95] These events increase the increases the volumes of disaster waste which is typically very difficult to manage with current systems. [33] The management of waste following a disaster is extremely important for the long-term health impacts on communities and environments. [96]

ENVIRONMENTAL RESILIENCE Since 1900 worldwide economic losses due to natural disasters have been increasing. 30% of these losses are due to flooding events, 26% from earthquakes and 19% from storm damage. It is projected that by 2050, between $93.7-$150.5 billion worth of US coastal property will be below sea level. [97]In Australia, the climate has changed in the last 100 years. Since 1910 there has been a 0.9°C increase in average surface temperature and an average sea level rise of 0.19 metres. There have been observed decreases in rainfall in South

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Carbon emissions reduced 30%Earth Overshoot Day: September 16, 2030

Figure 23: Frequency of extreme heat events in NSW (1910-2010). [98]

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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Consumption and growth

Planetary health

Policy and regulation

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

Figure 24: Australian waste generating CO2

emissions [33]

It is internationally recognised that acting on mitigating climate change and creating plans for adaption to these effects is necessary and needs to be actioned immediately. As well as having implications for low emission energy targets, global commitments have implications for landfill practices. Decomposition of organic waste in a landfill creates methane, a greenhouse gas 21 times more potent than CO

2. [102]. For countries

heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy, emission reduction targets also build the case for energy-from-waste developments.

Our national waste policy embodies the circular economy, shifting away from ‘take, make, use and dispose of’ to an approach where we maintain the value of resources as long as possible. In 2018 NSW EPA has embarked on a journey towards achieving a circular economy in Australia through policy change. This policy is the driving force behind many of the actions Australian industry is taking to reach a circular economy. [103] Globally other governments including the Netherlands and Scotland are establishing their own policies driving action to achieve a circular economy. [104]

Marine plastic is one lens through which Australia has come to recognise the urgency of plastics issues. We have now found plastic in Antarctic waters, meaning pollutants have been found in all of the world’s oceans.

GOVERNANCE

Figure 25: Loss to NSW Govt due to delayed QLD waste levy [105]

Global trends concerning governance and compliance management are varied when it comes to waste management. The European Waste Framework Directive outlines basic waste management principles, to inform the development of waste legislation and policy of the EU Member states. Under this framework, each EU Member State implements its own waste legislation and policy, with varying management methods and targets. [106]

The Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy published the National Waste Policy update in 2018. Using the National Waste Policy as a guide, regulation and enforcement for waste management in Australia resides with the states. [107]

Each state has its own waste strategy document, outlining state-based targets, mechanisms and drivers.

All mainland states within Australia have adopted a landfill waste levy, which seeks to reduce disposal to landfill and promote resource recovery. Unintended consequences of the levy can include illegal dumping or transport of waste long distances to zones with a low levy rate. A set back in the introduction of the Queensland waste levy has resulted in over $114 million annually lost fees to the NSW government. [105]

The uptake of zero waste policies at a city governance level is an emerging trend, notably in San Francisco, Tokyo and Auckland. [108]

LAND USE CONFLICTSFigure 26: Waste sent to long-distance landfill NSW [109]

Land use planning is critical to best-practice city design to ensure good social and environmental outcomes. Consideration of waste enables allocation of suitable space for management and resource recovery. It is important to consider the siting of operational waste and resource recovery facilities ‒ these need to be within easy access of collection locations while also considering impacts on the surrounding areas.

With all developments, it is important to not only consider locations for large scale storage and sorting but ensure that enough space is provided for separate waste streams at the source. The increasing value of land is putting pressure on developers to maximise returns, limiting space for storage, recycling rooms and social enterprises to run reuse and recycling centres. New regulations state that new residential developments over four storeys must have chutes for recycling and general waste. This is aimed to hit a recycling goal of 70% by 2030. [110]

Internationally, energy from waste plants are often centrally located. [73] This reduces travel distances and allows for waste heat to be used easily in the local

Figure 27: The extent of voting volatility [112]

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTYConcerns about political uncertainty have increased all around the world since the global financial crisis in 2007. Reports suggest that this uncertainty has been a key factor of weaker economic performance in many economies. The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) has been developed to monitor 143 countries from 1996 and onward. Globally, the WUI spikes have been recorded around the time of major disruptions including the 9/11 attacks, the SARS outbreak, the Gulf War II, and the UK’s Brexit vote.

Cross-country comparisons reveal that the level of uncertainty significantly varies across countries and is, on average, smaller in advanced economies than in the rest of the world.

Global common problems, such as climate change, are often affected by severe uncertainty. Research determined that global uncertainty negatively impacts on countries emissions and welfare in a strategic context. [113]

The impact of political uncertainty and the impact on waste management is best demonstrated by the example of the Queensland waste levy. Queensland has experienced an inundation of waste to landfill from the state of NSW due to the abolishment of its waste levy in 2013 marked by a change in government.

Impact on 20-year Waste Strategy• The strategy should align with new

and existing global sustainabilitytargets and be adaptive enoughto match future commitments bythe Australian government.

• To overcome political uncertainty, thestrategy must be well supported andclearly demonstrate why it’s necessaryto promote human and environmentalhealth over the next 20-years.

• To avoid land use conflicts, the strategyshould seek to increase the perceptionof waste as an essential service anddispel myths about waste infrastructurethat reduces social licence to operate.

• The strategy must consider howit can integrate with differentlevels of government, so theactions and recommendations areeasily adopted by those makingdecisions on waste management

Megatrend detail

area. In Singapore, land use conflicts often occur due to the limited space available. Singapore’s waste is incinerated reducing tonnage by 90%, and the resulting ash is then transported to an offshore landfill [110]

In NSW, there has been opposition to energy from waste facilities being located near residential areas. In NSW, 20% of putrescible waste is transported 21km to Woodlawn landfill by rail. Even sufficient space for kerbside collection including bins and trucks becoming can be challenged by conflicting land uses.

Always voted for the same party Considered voting for another party

80%

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0

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2%Waste is responsible for approximately

Of Australia’sgreenhouse gas emissions

$114M

Lost fees to NSW Govt due to delayed QLDwaste levy cost

Per annum250kmWaste sent

from Sydney to Woodlawn landfill

400,000 tonnes per year

This report has investigated the megatrends that are shaping the waste industry in NSW and possible scenarios in the next 20 years with a further 20-year outlook.

The megatrends research highlighted the need to consider modern consumer lifestyles including their expectations and the way they communicate. By engaging with customers, it is possible to avoid waste generation through upstream initiatives as well as increase reuse and recycling. Advances in technology enable new and more efficient waste management practices; however, it also changes existing waste streams. Local and international waste

management considerations all affect the operation of the waste management system in NSW. These range from landfill legacy costs to international trade uncertainties.

The impact of the waste industry on planetary and human health is becoming increasingly important with considerations such as climate change impacts. Policy and regulation need to be clear and demonstrate leadership to promote a move to a more circular economy.

Six scenarios were created to represent plausible and extreme future cases. These represent several attributes ranging from a successful circular economy model to a non-desirable outcome where the majority of waste is sent to landfill.

These future scenarios can be used to assist the strategy to respond to different possibilities. In the favourable scenario, circular success the term waste was

essentially eliminated. Waste quantities

decrease, and the waste market is

competitive. Circular economy principles

are embraced and innovation in waste

technology results. Clear policies have

driven the success of this scenario.

In the non-favourable scenario, down in

the dumps waste increases and recovery

rates decrease. Landfill is the main option

for waste and consumers disengage.

Health impacts emerge, and regulation is

concentrated around large landfills. The

other scenarios explore futures ranging

from business as usual to industry or

community driven solutions. A final scenario

looks at a future that combines a range of

services that are provided by a big market

player resulting in reduced waste overall

but a potentially uncompetitive market.

This report will be used to inform

the 20-year waste strategy.

60 61

Summary

This report will be used to inform the 20-year waste strategy.

Green Patch Beach, Jervis Bay, NSW ©Istock

62 63

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Appendices

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT PROCESSScenarios start with an analysis of the key factors driving our future in relation to the topic at hand – in the case of this research, the future of the waste sector. Key factors are defined as the driving forces and critical uncertainties shaping the future. In this context, five key factors that will most likely influence and shape the future of the waste sector were identified.

KEY FACTORS AND PROJECTIONSIn the first step, each key factor is described and two critical axes, the key variables defining each key factor, are identified. Based on this, four plausible future projections, based in the two axes, are developed.

Projections outline potential changes over time and describe plausible alternatives for the development of each key factor. As such, the developed projections are alternative, mutually exclusive, projections for the future shape of each key factor.

SCENARIOS In the next step, a set of plausible, consistent and alternative scenarios for the future of the waste sector are created.

CREATING A MORPHOLOGICAL BOXThe key factors along with their associated projections are then arranged in a so-called morphological box. The scenario software then creates a matrix of key factors and projections as a basis for the following cross-impact analysis.

SOFTWARE-BASED CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSISFollowing the development of projections for each key factor, a cross-impact analysis, using proprietary software, was conducted. Cross-impact analysis means assessing the consistency of each projection occurring concurrently with all the other projections. This is defined along a range from -5 to +5 (-5 meaning highly unlikely for these to manifest alongside each other; +5 meaning highly likely for these to manifest alongside each other). In the next step, a software algorithm is used to identify the most consistent clusters, or combinations, of projections. The consistency analysis results in a cluster map plotting all internally consistent projection bundles. Similar bundles of projections are close to each other (clustered), while dissimilar ones are apart. This forms the basis of the scenario development.

SELECTION OF CONSISTENT, YET FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS(Option Creation Analysis)Evaluating the cluster map, the scenario software can be used to assess which groups of projections are likely to occur together, and therefore represent a plausible future outcome. In essence, this involves evaluating the clusters and identify the groups of projections that are most consistent. This evaluation can be done by using the scenario software or in a collaborative process among the project team. In the process at hand, a combination of these approaches was used – starting with the scenario tool and iterating among the project team. Each of the identified combinations then forms the base of a scenario and a starting point for its narrative.

SCENARIO WRITING

Based on the most consistent groups of projections, scenario narratives can be created. See the outcomes in the main part of this report.

< Key Factors

< Projections < Consistent combination of projections

Figure 28: Morphological Box for NSW EPA Waste Scenarios Figure 29: Option Creation for NSW EPA Waste Scenarios

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Abbreviations

AI Artificial Intelligence

CO2 Carbon Dioxide, Carbon emissions

EfW Energy from waste

FOGO Food organics and garden organics

PET Polyethylene terephthalate

PFAS Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances

PV Photo Voltaic

RCP Representative Concentration Pathway

RDF Refuse derived fuel

SMaRT Sustainable Materials Research and Technology (Centre)

SARS Severe acute respiratory syndrome

STEEP Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political

WARR Waste and Resource Recovery

WUI World Uncertainty Index

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