Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly...

71
Introduction Warwick Economics Summer School Introduction to Experimental Economics Eugenio Proto University of Warwick, Department of Economics July 18, 2016

Transcript of Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly...

Page 1: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Warwick Economics Summer School

Introduction to Experimental Economics

Eugenio Proto

University of Warwick, Department of Economics

July 18, 2016

Page 2: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 3: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Introduction

Overview

I will be providing you with an introduction to a relatively new andexiting (in my opinion!) methods in economics. It would not be

possible for me to completely cover this in the time allowed so Iwill have to be selective.

Focus on introducing experimental economics as amethodology, though I will also cover a little about the historyof the method and look at the strengths and weaknesses thatit brings to the discipline.

Look at a case study involving one of my areas of research:Cooperation.

Page 4: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Introduction

A Brief History

Some of the oldest experiments within economics are older thanyou might think!

Market experiments: Decentralized markets - Chamberlain(1948) induced demand and cost structure; Double auction -Vernon Smith (1962, 1964).

Game experiments: Prisoners dilemma 1950’s - Originally bypsychologists and sociologists; Oligopoly games ReinhardSelten(1959).

Individual choice experiments and choice under uncertainty:Allais paradox (1953).

Page 5: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Introduction

Experimental Economics in the Discipline

Running experiments is now an established method to explainand/or describe economic activity which bring economics intoalignment with many of the natural sciences which rely onexperimental methods (e.g. physics and biology).

This is backed up by publications, citations and even a Nobel prize(Vernon Smith, 2002).

For example note that from the last 12 years 11% of themost-cited papers are experimental which is roughly the samenumber as theoretical papers.

Page 6: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Introduction

A Quick Look at the AER

Page 7: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 8: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

When to Use Experiments?

Experiments allow us to do several things but we have to becareful not to use experiments when existing methods may bebetter (in many senses).

We will look at a few accepted reasons why experiments add tothe discipline by providing new ways to do things and new insights.

Let’s start with the most obvious rationale and the one that ourcolleagues in the natural sciences would immediately recognize asextremely important...

Page 9: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

Testing Theory

Experiments can test theories under precisely controlled and/ormeasured conditions that are typically unavailable in field data.The key thing that experimental economics provides is control ofvarious forms:

Institutions (e.g. voting rules, communication, etc.) thoughnot perfect (e.g. social norms).

Incentives (payoffs) again not perfect (e.g. altruism).

Measure and checking confounding or unobservable (in thefield) variables (e.g. beliefs).

Randomization (avoids some self-selection problems).

Page 10: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

Game Theory

The development of Game Theory gave particular impetus toexperimental economics in the 1950’s, as game theory offeredtestable theories of economic behavior that depended on the finestructure of both the strategic environment and the preferences ofthe players.

It is therefore no surprise that many experimental economists arealso (game) theorists often seeking to test their own theories orthose of their peers.

Page 11: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

Empirical Regularities

Experimental data can allow us to search for regularities, andexploring and documenting unanticipated regularities has givenexperimental economics some of it’s biggest hits (from Allaisonwards).

These are often all about violations of the predictions of existingtheories which explains the links with behavioural economics.

Challenging theory: do people play Nash strategies, do they reallynever play dominated strategies, can they optimize decisions, useBayes rule, calculate risks properly, solve the sorts of problemsimplicit in economic theory, etc.?

Helping theory: For example, if there are multiple equilibria whichis selected?

Page 12: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

Informing Theory

As well as helping to refine theoretical ideas experiments can alsoassist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observedregularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguishamong such theories.

Examples: behavioural economics, generalized and alternativemodels of expected utility theory, learning in games, boundedrationality, etc.

We will look at a specific examples later (Cooperation andAltruism), but for now consider a famous experiment that startedthe ball rolling on much of behavioural economics...

Page 13: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

The Allais Paradox

the Allais paradox.

Choice 1: A: 4000 with p = 0.20 or B: 3000 with p = 0.25.

Choice 2: C : 4000 with p = 0.80 or D: 3000 with certainty.

EUT predicts people choose A-C or B-D, but in experimentsA-D or B-C are commonplace.

Page 14: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

Evaluating Assumptions

Theory often contains assumptions (as N increases such and suchhappens - or when N is infinite firms behave as competitive) - butwhat does this mean in practice (how big a number is treated asinfinite?).

Where theory is questioned there is also the issue of when and whyand this relates to so-called “stress-testing”: a theory may fail fora certain set of parameters - will it do better with others? (eg howdo contributions to a public good game change as N rises?).

In this way experimental economics may help to be clearer on whentheory works and when it does not.

Page 15: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Why Experiments?

Policy

There are also policy-oriented experiments. Most commonly to dowith market design.

There are many examples, but think about something as huge asconducting a spectrum auction or as complex as the effects onworker motivation of various compensation schemes.

Would it make sense to just go ahead without first testing themechanism you have invented? (UK spectrum auctions example:Binmore and Klemperer).

Page 16: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 17: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Replicate Reality?

So we now have an idea of what experiments can do, but whatmakes a good experiment?

Should an experiment replicate reality? Should an experimentreplicate a formal model? Typically no to both!

The real goal is a design that offers the best opportunity to learnsomething useful and to answer the questions that motivate yourresearch.

An experiment is judged by it’s impact on our understanding ofbehaviour.

Page 18: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

A Good Experiment

So, if an experiment is not just a replication of reality or a model,what really makes an experiment good? The answer depends onwhat you are testing or exploring, and who you are talking to. Agood design:

Is simple compared to reality and even simpler than relevantmodels (remember that models are themselves a simplificationof reality).

Is designed to test specific hypothesis or set of hypotheses.

Tests or controls for alternative hypotheses (this is the bitthat is often missed!).

Potential alternative hypotheses may again depend whom you talkto, which is why psychology experiments often look so different toeconomics experiments.

Page 19: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Confounding

A good design controls for the most plausible alternativehypotheses that might explain what is being observed:

Avoid confounding theories that give an equally plausiblerationale for behaviour under the experimental design.

Protect ourselves from fooling ourselves into believing whatwe want to believe.

Science done by people who are following up on theirintuitions, and (often) investigate hypotheses that theybelieve to be true.

Page 20: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Confounding (cont’d)

The same intuition that causes you to believe the hypothesismight give you a good idea of situations in which thehypothesis will hold.

But if there are other reasons that those conclusions mighthold, you have to make sure that you haven‘ t just created asituation that gives you the results you expect, but not for thereason that you believe.

Page 21: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Alternative Hypotheses

What are the most plausible alternative hypotheses we should becontrolling for?

We have already noted that this typically depends on who you aretalking to (economists/psychologists?).

This may also depend on recent developments in theory, in thelaboratory or in the field. Like any other branch of economicscurrent fashions are important!

Some alternative hypotheses become obsolete with time becausethey have been rejected or are simply out of fashion.

Page 22: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Testing Alternatives

Design by subtraction: if you think X is the reason for the result,design an experiment in which X is impossible, but all otherexplanations are possible. This can isolate the effect you want.Example: this is the basis of the most famous of naturalexperiments - twin studies -in which genetics as a rationale isremoved by using genetically identical individuals. In economics anexample might be making all incentives the same to see ifincentives really change behaviour in different settings.

Design by manipulation: change a parameter that you think shouldmake X a more likely explanation, or make it easier for X to beexpressed in the game. Example: making incentives more or lesslike a tournament to see if different genders respond to differenttypes of incentives (Niederle and Vesterlund, 2007). This tends tobe the more common approach in economics.

Page 23: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Treatments

Next up let’s look at what we can do to heighten our control.

First off we have different treatments to compare with a control(e.g. different payment methods, different information provided tosubjects). Good practice involves:

Testing hypothesis by changing one variable at a time.

Only changing variables which are directly relevant to thehypothesis being tested, otherwise holding the environmentfixed.

Avoiding confounds (don’t change more than one thing at atime).

Page 24: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Uncontrolled Factors

We can deal with many uncontrolled factors via randomization.

For example, experiments designed to test how subjects’ attitudestowards fairness are affected by some treatment variable. Subjectsenter the lab with differing attitudes about fairness so a truecontrolled experiment can’t be run:

By randomly assigning subjects to treatments, we caneliminate subjects differing attitudes as a cause of differencesbetween treatments. This relies on the law of large numbers,implying that a large sample may be necessary.

Or, we can measure variables which you think may affectfairness directly: gender or age for example. This explains whycollecting demographic information (via a questionnaire) is sostandard in experiments.

Page 25: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

Within vs Between

Within vs. between (panel vs. cross section) designs allow someindirect experimental control.

Within-subject design: participants make decisions in alltreatments.

Between-subject design: different participants make decisions ineach treatment.

Under a within-subject design each subject is its own control. Thisis great as we need not worry about having different characteristicsof participants in each treatment (often easier to get significance).However on the flip side there is the disadvantage of order effectsor even fatigue.

Page 26: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

More Design Choices

One round versus many rounds? (With implications for learning!).

Pay one (randomized) round or all rounds? (With implications forbehaviour?).

Use language that is neutral? (priming or framing might beproblematic and we will come back to this later).

Train participants, or test them before you use them asparticipants in your experiment? (Again learning is an issue).

Page 27: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

A Good Experiment?

The Bottom Line

Good experiment identifies an interesting question or questions(issues that are better addressed through a controlled experimentthan through gathering field data).

It should determine a precise set of hypotheses.

The design should involve a simple environment that allows you totest the hypotheses that matters. The more complicated theenvironment the more likely you are to lose control and be unableto draw inference.

It should deal with confounding alternatives.

Page 28: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Problems

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 29: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Problems

Realism

So far it seems like experiments are a fantastic method but thereare many objections we need to consider. We will look at a few ofthe major ones in sequence.

First off is the potential lack of realism (the external validity issue).How can we respond?

Experiments involve real subjects making real money.

Less relevant for testing theories (again remember thatmodels are themselves a simplification of reality).

Realism can be added in controlled steps (much as withtheory).

Page 30: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Problems

Representativeness

Next is the issue of the representativeness of subjects. Again, howcan we respond:

Less important for comparative statics and when we knowdemographics and can control for them.

Can be tested and may not be important in some situations(e.g. when a theory is supposed to apply to everyone).

We can go into the field for greater realism andrepresentativeness (we will come back to this later).

Page 31: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Problems

Incentives

An old criticism of experimental work was the lack of clearincentives and experiments may even rely only on intrinsicmotivation. This is less of an issue for experimental economicswhere the norm is to provide clear performance-related pay (whichprovides extrinsic motivation).

The advantages are clear as subjects are likely to make more effort(if economics is at all correct!) and there is likely more controlover incentives if they are clear. It also makes clear that theexperimenter wants subjects to follow their own interests (and notthe interests of the experimenter or “society”).

But there are also disadvantages: it is expensive and in some senselimits the stakes (may make things seem trivial). It may alsocrowd-out intrinsic motivation (Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000).

Page 32: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Problems

Clarity

Might experiments also involve hard to understand instructionswhich fail to capture the key features of the problem at hand?Could this explain why subjects failed to act optimally? Savage’sfamous response to the Allais experiment - supposedly after at firstcontradicting EUT with his answers he “realised” his error and sowould not do so again.

Concrete clear wording or neutral language (fully detailed in anypublished work to allow replication) seems a good reply to thisissue but it is a valid point that needs to be dealt with and poorinstructions may lead to an experiments downfall.

Page 33: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Problems

Concrete Wording?

Advantages of concrete wording: can help with understandingof the experiment and can bring the experiment closer toresearch question.

Disadvantages of concrete wording: loss of control as youdon’t know how subjects perceive their role e.g. subjectsmight “role-play”.

Norm in experimental economics: “Neutral” languagedescribing actions and their payoff consequences.

Page 34: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Problems

Priming and Framing

Closely related to the issue of clarity is the issue of framing (howyou describe something may change behaviour) and priming (theorder in which you explain things may have an effect).

Again in general the answer is to provide a clear statement of whatwording you use and try to avoid priming or use “neutral” framesas much as possible though to some extent it may be impossible toeliminate them entirely. Checking a result under different frames ormaking the frame as close to what would be seen in reality are alsopossibilities.

Priming or framing can actually be studies directly during theexperiment (and may actually be the subject of the experiment!)in which case you can try to test different frames or different levelsof priming to evaluate the impact.

Page 35: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 36: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Time-line: Outline

With a better idea of the objections it we are now in a position tothink about “good practice”.

The process of starting an experimental project is long andcomplex. This is an idea of what you would need to think about(roughly in order):

Formulate a research question.

Choose design to address the research question: treatmentvariable(s), within vs. between, required number ofindependent observations, number of sessions/subjects.

Prepare an experimental outline.

Seek funding.

Ethical approval.

Page 37: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Time-line: Details

So we have an outline and funding plus ethical approval. Nextcome the detailed instructions and design plus a pilot.

Write instructions for each treatment and an overall “script”.

Prepare a questionnaire (useful for controls).

If computerized, make sure the software is capable.

Organize money (when/how to pay).

Recruit for the pilot.

Run pilot experiment.

Page 38: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Time-line: The Experiment

Finally we can run the experiment and produce a paper.

Improve the design/instructions based on the pilot experience.

Recruit subjects.

Run the experiment.

Analyze data and write the paper!

Experiments usually yield something (even if it is not what youexpected) but can occasionally produce very unclear results soexperimental economists (like any other economists) have to beready to abandon a paper if it provides no clear insights.

Page 39: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Practical matters

Next let’s think a little more about some important practical issues.

Chemists used to use metal beakers for mixing ingredients, untilthey learned that the metal sometimes reacts with the chemicals.Then they switched to glass. Lesson: make sure you limit thethings that can react with your treatment. You want to be able toreplicate environment!

Provide a precise description of the experimental protocol, so makesure instructions are easy to understand.

Page 40: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

No Distractions!

Good practice also involves eliminated distractions and enablingprivacy:

No talking (participants, experimenters) and no distractions.

If a subject needs help then answer questions privately andquietly.

In smaller groups reduce the risk that one participant sayssomething out loud and affects the whole group.

Use appropriate screens if privacy is important (it usually is).

Page 41: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Deception

In psychology experiments deception is commonplace andexperimenters may even use stooges. Advantages: can lowerscosts, easier to study rare situations, easier to design experiment.

However, experimental economics do not use deception. Why?With deception comes a fear that your subjects will no longerbelieve what you are telling them (loss of control) and may evenstart to outguess you (changes behaviour). This has an externalityfor other experiments in the locality.

Close to impossible to publish economic research with even minordeception though it is “allowed” to not reveal the whole truth.

Page 42: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Anonymity

Just as experimental economists don’t use deception, we also tryto preserve anonymity. But there are many types of anonymity:

Single blind: subjects guaranteed that no other subjects (orindeed, no one other than the researchers) will be able to everidentify their actions or payoffs.

Double blind: subjects guaranteed that no one can link theirdecisions to their identity, even the researchers. Generally thisis better than single-blind.

Abandoning anonymity: if abandoning anonymity is animportant part of the design then subjects should know whatinformation about them is to be revealed publicly, and havethe option of withdrawing if they do not want informationabout them revealed publicly.

Page 43: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Ethics

What is ethical depends on the discipline: medical experimentersdo things psychologists might worry about and psychologists inturn do things economists might worry about. (Example: traumahealing experiments in medicine).

Deception is a good example: fine in psychology, not in economics.General ethical boards don’t like to see deception even inpsychology.

Ethical approval normally requires high levels of anonymity andalso the ability for subjects to withdraw when they wish (in casethey have concerns about privacy).

Page 44: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Matching

For some game theoretic experiments there is also the issue of howto match up subjects:

Partners: always play with same group.

Strangers: randomly re-matched before playing each game.

Perfect strangers: subjects do not play with the same subjectsmore than once.

Page 45: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Good Practice

Replication

Finally, of huge importance is the ability to replicate experimentalwork. Replication checks for robustness, experimenter effects, etc.and being able to replicate work is typically a strict requirement forpublication.

To need to enable replication also provides strong incentives to getit right.

It also necessitates the complete availability of data, instructions,software and procedures. Notice that it does not conflict withanonymity.

Page 46: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Field Experiments

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 47: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Field Experiments

Going into the Field?

More external validity built-in (based in the real world?). Realpeople vs undergraduates (but students are real people!).

The subject pool is spot-on: use market traders to study tradingstrategies, use politicians to study legislative bargaining, etc.

You may want really large samples (thousands of people) and inthat case the laboratory may actually be more expensive (you cango to developing nations to run large-scale field experiments).

You may wish to test if a change would have a sizeable effect whenmany other things happen as well in a “real-world” environment.

Sometimes the field is just the right place: e.g. examining theimpact of a major real-worl catastrophie may be hard to motivatein the laboratory.

Page 48: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Field Experiments

Staying in the Laboratory?

The laboratory provides more control which is after all a keyfeature of experimental economics:

Typically it is easier to get strict instructions followed whenexperiments are run in the laboratory.

Students may follow difficult instructions more easily.

Precise control over the incentives.

Page 49: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Field Experiments

Transparent and Replicable?

The laboratory offers more transparency: the subject pool(undergraduates) is well understood. In the field you may worryyou use a subject pool prone to some bias, that is then attributedto the experiment.

Laboratory experiments are more replicable: Lab experiments arevery easy (and cheap) to replicate. This may make us morecomfortable with surprising results.

Ethical issues may be easier to overcome in the laboratory.

Field experiments may simply be infeasible in terms of design, costor opportunity.

Sometimes it is possible to compromise and either bring thelaboratory to the field or field-elements to the laboratory to gainsome of the positive aspects of each.

Page 50: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 51: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Overview

In this lecture I will be providing you with an introduction toexperiment testing elements core of the rational individualHypothesis:

Are individuals: Non-Cooperative, distrustful and selfish?

Experimental evidences of individuals behaviour on games ofcooperation (e.g. Prisoner Dilemma, Public Good Games, Trustgame)

Page 52: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

Nash Equilibrium: Non-Cooperative, distrustful and selfishindividuals

The Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of anon-cooperative game involving two or more players, in whicheach player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies ofthe other players, and no player has anything to gain bychanging only his own strategy unilaterally.

If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefitby changing strategies while the other players keep theirsunchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and thecorresponding payoffs constitute a Nash equilibrium.

The Nash equilibrium may sometimes appear non-rational in athird-person perspective. This is because it may happen thata Nash equilibrium is not Pareto optimal.

(From Wikipedia)

Page 53: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

Cooperation and Prisoner Dilemma

A typical game of cooperation is The Prisoner’s Dilemma byDresher and Flood and Tucker in 1950

Do not Confess Confess

Do not Confess c , c b, dConfess d , b a, a

with c < d and b < a

the only equililbrium is (a, a), the non cooperative one whereboth prisoners confess (defect)

The efficient solution would be (c , c), the cooperative onewhere none of the prisoner confess (cooperate)

PD motivated hundreds of experiment

in general the level of cooperation is never 0 (or 100%)

Page 54: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma

more recently the focus shifted to the repeated PD

The only rational, sub-game perfect, equilibrium in a finitelyrepeated experiment is always non cooperation

by backward induction: I will not cooperate the last period N,then I will not cooperate at N − 1 and so on...

If the game is repeated infinite times cooperation is one(among others) equilibrium

What is the behaviour in the laboratory?

Page 55: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

Learning Effects and Equilibrium Characterization (Dal Boand Frechette 2011)

N rounds of ”infinitely” repeated PD

different treatment : different payoffs from cooperation anddifferent probability of ending

Subgame Perfection and Risk Dominance are not sufficientconditions for converging to cooperation

CooperationRD > CooperationSGPE > not an equilibrium

Page 56: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

Stage Game (Dal Bo and Frechette 2011)

Confess Not Confess

Confess R,R 12, 50Not Confess 50, 12 25, 25

”infinitely” repeated PD with probability δ of termination

Page 57: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

SGP Equilibria (Dal Bo and Frechette 2011)

Confess Do not Confess

Confess R,R 12, 50Do not Confess 50, 12 25, 25

δ = Continuation Probabilityassuming risk neutrality:Critical values (Calculated in Stahl 2001):R = 32, δ∗ = 0.72R = 40 , δ∗ = 0.4R = 48, δ∗ = 0.4.

Page 58: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

Learning Effects and different equilibria (Dal Bo andFrechette 2011)

Page 59: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Prisoner Dilemma

Summary of the results from the PD Game

In one shot PD, not all individuals play non-cooperatively

In (finitely and “infinitely”) repeated PD Individuals tend tocooperate at the beginning, cooperation increase with theprobability of continuation

Individuals learn to cooperate and to defeat

Both Risk Dominance and SGP are not sufficient condition forcooperation (RD seems necessary)

Page 60: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Public Good Games

Public Good Games: Simple Example

Two individuals a private good and a public good valued 30per player costing 40

endowment 50 per player

Buy PG Do not buy PG

Buy PG 60, 60 40, 80Do not buy PG 80, 40 50, 50

No PG in Equilibrium

Page 61: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Public Good Games

Selfish or Cooperative?

Summary of findings:

In one shot t > 0 but t < t∗, generally halfway between thetwo

Contributions decline with repetition

Communication improves the rate of contribution

Psychologist (Dawes et al. ) and Sociologist (Marwell et al.)started to study the problem in a static environment

Economist started to introduce repetition (Kim and Walker(1984), Isaac et al. (1985))

Page 62: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Public Good Games

Public Good Games with punishment, Fher and Gatcher,2000

There is a “Stranger”-treatment with and without punishmentopportunities and a “Partner”-treatment with and withoutpunishment opportunities

In the Partner-treatments the same group of n = 4 subjectsplays a finitely repeated public good game for 10 periods

in the Stranger-conditions the total number of participants inan experimental session, N = 24, is randomly partitioned intosmaller groups of size n = 4 in each of the ten periods

In a given session of the Stranger-treatment the same Nsubjects play 10 periods in the punishment and 10 periods inthe no-punishment condition. Similarly, in a session of thePartner-treatment all groups of size n play the punishmentand the no-punishment condition

Page 63: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Public Good Games

Public Good Games with punishment, Payoffs

control group :π1i = y − gi + a∑

j gj , 0 < a < 1 < na

with punishment: π2i = π1i (1 − (1/10)P i ) −∑

j 6=i c(pji )

P i , punishment for i ; c(pji ), cost of punishment for i

Prediction: In all treatments the Nash Equilibrium is ti = 0

Page 64: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Public Good Games

Public Good Games with punishment, results

Page 65: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Public Good Games

Summary of the results from the Public Goods Game

In one shot, individuals contribute halfway between Nash andOptimal level.

Contributions dramatically declines with repetitions

In Public Good Games with Costly punishment, contributionsdo not decline with repetitions

Page 66: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Trust Games

Trust Games: Berg, Dickhaut and McCabe (1994)

Games of trust are designed in a way that their Nashequilibrium differ from Pareto optimum

Is trust an “economic primitive?”

Subject A sends X to Subjects B

The amount sent is tripled by the time reach B, 3X

B decides how much to send back to A

the experiment is anonymous and no repeated interactions areallowed

Nash Equilibrium : X = 0

Page 67: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Trust Games

An example of Trust Game

Page 68: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Trust Games

Trust Games, formal results in the main treatment

Page 69: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Applications: Cooperation, Trust and Altruism

Trust Games

Trust Games, cont’d

How to explain this behavior?

evolutionary approach: positive externality

Maximize genetic fitness, even though self interest suggestcheating

Page 70: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Summary

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Why Experiments?

3 A Good Experiment?

4 Problems

5 Good Practice

6 Field Experiments

7 Applications: Cooperation, Trust and AltruismPrisoner DilemmaPublic Good GamesTrust Games

8 Summary

Page 71: Warwick Economics Summer School · assist in the formulation of new theories, to explain newly observed regularities, and devising new experiments to help distinguish among such theories.

Introduction

Summary

Main Points

Subjects cooperate in a moderate way in a prisoner dilemmagame.

Subjects learn to cooperate in a repeated PD

In “infinitely” repeated PD, subjects seem to play acooperative strategy only under very restrictive condition(generally do not cooperate when cooperation is anequilibrium strategy)

Subjects are not completely free-rider nor completelycooperative in a public good game

Contributions decline with time in PG.

individuals cooperate in a stable way in PG with punishment.

Individuals trust the trustees, although trustees seem notcompletely deserve!