war

End of History?

• no wars fought between democratic countries (in 20th century)

• nor (since WWII) between wealthy countries--a few exceptions

So who is still fighting?

• Most wars of the past 50 years are:

• fought in poor countries

• civil wars• possibly with foreign involvement

• ill-defined forces• para-militaries, children, abductees

• high civilian casualties

Recent factors behind decline in conflicts

• End of most colonial wars of independence

• End of Cold War

• Rising incomes, especially Asia

• Greater peace-keeping and peace-making by international forces

But down the road . . .

• Increasing tensions with religious fundamentalism

• Intractable poverty

• Conflicts over shortages of oil, water, and other resources

• The unpredictable

UN forces

• UN chapter 7 authorized forces--Korea, First Iraq War, etc

• “Blue Helmets”--UN peacekeepers• more than 60 missions, growing

International Forces--NATO

• formed 1949--US dominant

• mutual defense clause

• reinvented after 1991, eventually expanded

• first use: 1994 ending war in Bosnia

• 1999 more extensive use against Serbia, protecting Kosovo

• 2003 takes over security role from Germany in Afghanistan

Arms trade

The Arms market

• Small arms—total of 1 gun for every 10 people on earth